1 Manifesting the Upside of Down Noetic Approaches for Citizen Activists to help transform the Perfect Storm of disruptive surprises heading our way Houston Community of the Institute of Noetic Sciences October 3, 2010 Oliver Markley, PhD www.OWMarkley.org www.ImaginalVisioning.com
Manifesting the Upside of Down. Noetic Approaches for Citizen Activists to help transform the Perfect Storm of disruptive surprises heading our way Houston Community of the Institute of Noetic Sciences October 3, 2010 Oliver Markley, PhD www.OWMarkley.org www.ImaginalVisioning.com. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
Manifesting the Upside of Down
Noetic Approaches for Citizen Activists to help transform the Perfect Storm
of disruptive surprises heading our wayHouston Community of the Institute of Noetic Sciences
October 3, 2010
Oliver Markley, PhDwww.OWMarkley.org www.ImaginalVisioning.com
Presentation Outline• Main concepts (above)• Historical context of research about the
future• Type II Wild Cards and Mild Cards• Current context: Tipping points toward
collapse and reformation• Promising noetic and other approaches• Cornucopia causality, imaginal
visioning / manifestation, and integrative (“integral”) activism
• Experiential demonstrations
Historical ContextLooking at the Future
From the Past
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Early SRI Futures Research
Source: Harman, Markley & Rhyne, SRI (1973)
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Year 2000 Projections
Source: Harman, Markley & Rhyne, SRI (1973)
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Wild CardA possible event
that has a low probability but would have a huge impact
if it occurred
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Type II Wild CardA wild card that has a
high probability (to a “knowledgeable”) but low credibility (to most others)
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Disruptive Overshooting of Carrying Capacity?
Source: O. Markley, “The Future of SpaceShip Earth” (1995)
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The Ecological Challenge
of Humankind “When one species attains a position of dominance over all the other species in the ecology of its planet, if it is both egocentrically greedy, and has a powerful set of technologies through which to amplify the expression of that greed, then unless that dominant species can find a way to limit or to transform itself and its greed-based systems into something more wholesome, it will foul its planetary nest as surely as the night follows the day ... perhaps even to its own extinction.”
Source: “The Fourth Wave: A Normative Forecast for the Future of Spaceship Earth,” by O.W. Markley, posted online at www.inwardboundvisioning.com/Docs/SpaceShipEarth.htm
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Research on Type II Wild Cards
First major conclusion: If present trends continue...
A Tipping Point Toward Civilizational Collapse
(2008)
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Five “Tectonic” Stressors Toward
Catastrophe
(2006)
• Population stress: overall increase and the difference in rate of increase between rich and poor countries
• Energy stress: increasing scarcity and cost of conventional oil
• Environmental stress from mounting damage to land, sea and air
• Climate stress as the atmosphere responds to global heating
• Economic stress from the widening gap between rich and poor people within countries and between countries
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Envisioning the First to Hit:
Financial
(2006)
After the banking crisis in 2008, a
BBC documentary lays it bare:
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Showing of a four minute set of video clips from The Love of Money, a
three-hour BBC documentary seriesabout the sub-prime meltdown goes here
Current ContextLooking at the Future
From the Present
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More “Bubbles” Currently Threatening Global Financial Meltdown ~ 1-3 Years
• Real estate bubble
• Stock market bubble
• Discretionary spending bubble
• Dollar bubble
• Government debt bubble
Why would there be a dollar bubble before a gov’t debt bubble? Multi-bubble economy cannot be easily reflated.
Virtuous upward cycle of past few decades replaced by vicious downward spiral resulting from co-lined bubbles:
(2010)
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The “Issues Behind the Issues”
• The old American cultural dynamic: ambition, thrift, self-sacrifice, communitarian problem solving
• The new one: more interest in entertainment and credit-based consumption than in realistically addressing emerging problems that obviously threaten the sustainability of our way of life (“Bread and Circuses”)
• Corporate and financial systems driven to maximize short-term profit for investors
• Government systems increasingly driven by special-interest lobbying, especially by “The Street
• Mass media that filters and shapes the news to suit corporate owners
• Critical mass of systemic problems not being addressed.
(2009)
An audio recording and text transcript of an interview are posted at http://will.illinois.edu/mediamatters/show/sunday-august-30-2009/