New York City Market Update Fourth Quarter 2015 MANHATTAN BROKERAGES East Side | 38 East 61 st Street | t: 212.606.7660 Downtown | 149 Fifth Avenue, 4 th Floor | t: 212.431.2440 West Side | 2244 Broadway | t: 212.579.9300 400 East 59th Street, Trophy Penthouse | $16,000,000 | WEB: 0138132 sothebyshomes.com/nyc
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Listing Inventory Further detail on page 3 4,925 4,721 4%
Months of Supply 4.2 4.0 3%
CONDOS & CO-OPS OVERVIEW Fourth Quarter 2015 market sales prices were forced upward to record high market measures, influenced by a large increase of new construction closings. Condo closings accounted for 51% of total sales. More significantly, a greater share of those sales occurred in new construction projects. With 3,183 closed sales in the fourth quarter of 2015 (3% fewer than prior year), the overall average sales price was $2,014,000 showing an 11% increase over prior year. The overall median sales price also had a significant year-over-year increase of 17% to $1,150,000. In the analysis presented by three distinct price tiers – under $3M; $3M to $10M; and over $10M – the rising market price trend is most evident in the two lower tiers. For all properties sold under $3M, the average sales price was up 6% and the median sales price was higher by 9%. There were 2,660 closed sales under $3M in this quarter, accounting for 84% of the total market sales, however the quarter saw 7% fewer closed sales in this price tier as compared to the same quarter in 2014. In the next price tier, $3M to $10M, the average sales price showed an increase of 8% and a median sales price increase of 12%. There were 34% more sales this quarter over the prior year and units sold in this price tier accounted for approximately 15% of total sales. The top price tier (properties over $10M) is where we encountered a decrease in average sales price. With fewer record setting sale prices in the top tier of the market, the average sales price for unit sold over $10M dipped 19% while the median sales price increased marginally by 6%.
The average sales price of all recorded Manhattan sales in the fourth quarter of 2015 was $2,014,000
which is 11% higher than prior year and 16% over prior quarter. The median sales price gained 17%
from prior year and 15% from prior quarter. Both the average sales price and the median sales price are
record high measures for overall Manhattan prices.
AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE
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The 3,183 closed sales this quarter represented just 3% lower than prior year but 10% lower than the quarter before. Total inventory remains far below normalized supply levels of 8,000-9,000+/- listings. This inventory measure has been well under 6,000 units for 8 straight quarters.
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and INVENTORY
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# of Closed Sales Inventory
Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages
Months of Supply per Price Category 2.3 4.3 6 9.2 13.5 22.7 36.8 4.2
CONDOS & CO-OPS (based on 6 months of closed sales 06.01.2015 - 11.30.2015)
The overall Manhattan absorption rate stands at 4.2 months. However, properties valued $6M or more have seen much higher absorption rates with inventory shortage existing only in the lower price tiers. The lower price segments have been experiencing consistent shortages of inventory with units under $1M at 2.3 months supply and units between $1M and $2M at 4.3 months supply. The top three price tiers have absorption rates signifying that buyers would have a clear advantage, particularly at the $20M+ price segment where there is nearly a three year supply of inventory at the current pace of sales. Top market price tiers remain where buyers have the most choice which has led to price reductions and concessions at new developments. The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 9+/- months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6 month period.
NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET & LISTING DISCOUNT
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET The total number of days a listing is on the active market before an offer is accepted. It is calculated by totaling the total days on market for every closed sale, and dividing the total days by the total number of closed sales.
LISTING DISCOUNTThe percent change between the original asking (listing) price of a home, and the final sales price of the home. It is calculated by subtracting the sales price from the original listing price, and dividing the result by the original listing price.
THE ULTRA LUXURY MARKETCO-OPS, CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES OVER $10MOver the fourth quarter of 2015 there were 62 ultra-luxury sales, 10% fewer sales than prior quarter and prior year. The average sales price in this market sector posted a slight gain of 5% over prior quarter but showed a decline of 18% over the prior year’s average of $23,927,000. The highest sale price this quarter was $45,000,000 for a penthouse duplex unit at 15 Central Park West.
MANHATTAN MARKET | CO-OPS & CONDOS CO-OPSIn the fourth quarter of 2015, average co-op sales prices posted a 13% gain to $1,315,000 and the median sales price rose 6% to $750,000. The under $3M price bracket charted gains of 2% in average sales price and 4% in median sales price. For co-op units in the price tier ranging from $3M to $10M, the average sales price measure posted a 10% gain while the median sales price was 14% higher than prior year. Within the top tier co-op price bracket, over $10M, there were 10 closed sales posting an average sales price of $20,336,000 and a median sales price of $18,000,000.
CONDOSOverall, Manhattan condo sales showed gains with the average sales price rising 4% to $2,686,000; the average price per square foot climbed 6% higher to $1,708; and the median sales price rose 16% to $1,675,000. Within the three distinct price tiers, there is strength in lower prices and falling values on the high-end this quarter. For units over $10M, the average sales price declined 26%; the median sales price decreased 1%; and the average price per square foot fell 28%.
NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWNUPPER EAST SIDEnorth of 58th Street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue Upper East Side co-ops experienced a wide swing of changes as compared to the previous year with a 13% drop in closed sales, a 17% increase in average sales price, and a 1% decrease in median sales price. The average and median condo sales prices fell 7% and 11% respectively. With fewer new construction condo sales as compared to the previous year, condo prices were lower than prior record highs.
CO-OPS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 437 501 -13%
Average Sales Price $1,786,000 $1,529,000 17%
Median Sales Price $842,000 $850,000 -1%
CONDOS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 258 199 30%
Average Sales Price $2,307,000 $2,484,000 -7%
Median Sales Price $1,484,000 $1,660,000 -11%
UPPER WEST SIDEnorth of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, Central Park West to Riverside DriveThe total number of closed co-op sales on the Upper West Side in the fourth quarter of 2015 was 314, representing a decrease of 16% from prior year. Co-ops in this market area posted an average sales price of $1,375,000, a 7% gain over the last quarter of 2014. A major increase in condo closings, up 55% over prior year, also contributed to a significant spike in the average condo sales price. At an average sales price of $2,759,000, the condo measure was higher by 44%. This average and median condo market measures were influenced by over 100 new construction closings, particularly at 50 Riverside Drive and the closing of two units at 15 Central Park West for $35,000,000 and $45,000,000.
CO-OPS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 314 376 -16%
Average Sales Price $1,375,000 $1,285,000 7%
Median Sales Price $855,000 $822,000 4%
CONDOS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 333 215 55%
Average Sales Price $2,759,000 $1,917,000 44%
Median Sales Price $1,945,000 $1,380,000 41%
MIDTOWNnorth of 34th Street and south of 57th StreetThe average co-op sales price in this market area increased 3% to $872,000 while the median co-op price slipped 1% to $620,000. There were far more condo sales closed this quarter with 449 this quarter versus 288 prior year. Despite this increase in number of closed sales, there were far fewer ultra-luxury closings, resulting in a much lower average condo sales price of $2,175,000 as compared to $3,977,000. It should be noted that in the fourth quarter of 2014, the average sales price figure was strongly impacted by significant closings at ONE57. For example, in this quarter there were five closed sales at ONE57 with only one over $25,000,000 as compared to the same quarter last year which saw 15 sales at ONE57 with nearly all priced over $25,000,000.
CO-OPS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 266 274 -3%
Average Sales Price $872,000 $850,000 3%
Median Sales Price $620,000 $625,000 -1%
CONDOS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 449 288 56%
Average Sales Price $2,175,000 $3,977,000 -45%
Median Sales Price $1,600,000 $1,400,000 14%
UPTOWN north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West SideThe average sales price of co-op sales was higher by 9%, reaching $520,000. The median co-op sales price posted an increase of 15% to $460,000. Measures were also higher in the condo market with a 7% gain in the average sales price and 14% rise in the median condo sales price.
CO-OPS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 133 143 -7%
Average Sales Price $520,000 $477,000 9%
Median Sales Price $460,000 $400,000 15%
CONDOS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 100 124 -19%
Average Sales Price $807,000 $754,000 7%
Median Sales Price $707,000 $620,000 14%
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DOWNTOWNsouth of 34th Street through TribecaThe 411 closed co-op sales in the fourth quarter of 2015 represented a decline of 18% as compared to prior year. However, co-op price measures were much higher with an 10% gain in the average sales price and an 11% gain in the median sales price. Huge gains were evident in the condo sales price with a 52% increase in the average sales price of a condo; and a 56% increase in the median condo sales price. Projects like The Greenwich Lane and 150 Charles Street, among others, had a significant number of closings this past quarter (note: many of these deals were procured 12-18 months ago). In the Downtown market, there were far fewer high-end, luxury condo units sold in the fourth quarter of 2014 than this quarter, resulting in the large sales price gains.
CO-OPS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 411 501 -18%
Average Sales Price $1,279,000 $1,165,000 10%
Median Sales Price $827,000 $745,000 11%
CONDOS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 325 504 -36%
Average Sales Price $4,395,000 $2,900,000 52%
Median Sales Price $3,100,000 $1,988,000 56%
FINANCIAL DISTRICT | BATTERY PARK CITYThere were 145 condo units closed in the fourth quarter of 2015, a 3% improvement over prior year. This market area also had a substantially higher average condo sales price due to a higher percentage of new construction closings. The average sales price of $1,814,000 was a 39% increase while the median sales price remain largely unchanged at just over $1,500,000.
CO-OPS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 10 10 0%
Average Sales Price $971,000 $768,000 26%
Median Sales Price $916,000 $725,000 26%
CONDOS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change
# Closed Sales 145 140 3%
Average Sales Price $1,814,000 $1,305,000 39%
Median Sales Price $1,514,000 $1,505,000 1%
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SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - ON THE MARKET, AROUND THE WORLD
Comparing the fourth quarter of 2014 and the fourth quarter of 2015, all three markets showed an increase in price per sq. ft. with San Francisco seeing the largest increase at 11.6%, Los Angeles at 7.4% and New York City at 5.6%. Comparing this quarter and last quarter New York City and Los Angeles price per sq. ft. increased 7.4% and 5.4% respectively, while San Francisco showed a small decline of 3.1%
ST. BARTHELEMY | $24,500,000
WEB: F7DXN6
St Barth Properties Sotheby’s International Realty
LONDON, ENGLAND | $6,620,568
WEB: LPDK7X
United Kingdom Sotheby’s International Realty
PARIS, FRANCE | $6,061,262
WEB: DCBPNB
Paris Ouest Sotheby’s International Realty
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. | CONDOS ONLY
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New York City San Francisco Los Angeles
Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages