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MANAJEMEN RISIKO

DALAM INDUSTRI ASURANSI

Prof. Roy Sembel, PhD

Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel

LinkedIn / Facebook: Prof. RoySembel

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PROF. ROY SEMBEL, IR, MBA, PHDEDUCATION

1982-86 IPB, Bogor. FMIPA. Major: Statistics, Minor: Economics; Ir., Best Graduate, Cum Laude

1988-90 Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam and The Wharton School,

University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia; MBA, Finance/Banking, Best Graduate, With Honours

1991-96 J.M.Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh; Major: Corporate Finance;

Minor: Econometrics; PhD; Dissertation: “IPO Anomalies, Truncated Excess Supply, and

Heterogeneous Information”

1997-98 Economics & Finance Staff, Office of Dr (HC) Radius Prawiro, Jakarta.

2000 ACUCA Lecturer: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, The Philippines, Thailand

1987-Now Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Christian University of Indonesia, Jakarta.

1997-2001 Visiting Lecturer at IPMI, Institut PPM, Magister Management Program University of

Indonesia, University of Sam Ratulangi, Universitas Lampung, Magister Akuntansi & Post Graduate

(S2 & S3) Program Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia, Pelita Harapan University. Subjects:

Investment Analysis and Risk Management, Corporate Finance, International Finance, Derivative

Securities, Managerial Economics, Banks & Capital Markets, eBusiness Management.

WORK EXPERIENCE

1984-87 Teaching Assistant, FMIPA, IPB.

1990 Internship; ABN Bank, European Treasury Department, Amsterdam.

1990-91 Corporate Banking; ABN AMRO Bank Amsterdam

1994-96 Teaching Assistant, University of Pittsburgh.

1994-2000 Co-founder Indonesian Physics Olympic Team /TOFI Foundation & Indonesian

Computer Olympic Foundation TOKI

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1998-2001 McKinsey & Co, Jakarta

2001-2006 Direktur Program Magister Manajemen Keuangan Universitas Bina Nusantara, Co-

founder Indonesia Learning Institute (InLIne), Indonesia School of Life (InSchoOL)

2005-2007 Komisaris Independen & Ketua Komite Pemantau Risiko PT Bank Niaga Tbk

2005- Professor in Financial Economics;

Charter member Lembaga Komisaris dan Direksi Indonesia

2006-2008 Academic Expert Advisor, Universitas Ciputra Surabaya,

2006- Owner/Komisaris (PT. Capital Price Indonesia, PT MARS Indonesia)

2007- Supervisory Committee Asian Bond Fund Indonesia (TCW Bahana/BI),

Ketua Komite Sertifikasi FPSB Indonesia

2007-2008 Pejabat Dekan FE Universitas Multimedia Nusantara (UMN)

2008 Board of Advisor UMN

2008-2010 Chairman CAPITAL PRICE

2009-2010 Dean of Business School and Director of Graduate Program, UPH

2010-2012 Director of Jakarta Futures Exchange

2012-2015 Senior advisor, Vriens & Partners

2012- IPMI International Business School, Professor, Head of Research, Dean

2013- Komisaris Independen PT HIT, Komisaris Utama PT MCS International

2014- Ketua Komite Indeks Investor 33; Member of Advisory Council, PLN CorpU

2015- Komisaris Independen, PT MNC Life

MISCELLANEOUSSpeaker in many seminars in Indonesia, USA, and Europe. Writer of more than 1000 articles in KONTAN, GATRA,

Sinar Harapan, SWA, Bisnis Indonesia, KOMPAS, Investor, Investor Daily, Warta Ekonomi, Manajemen &

Usahawan Indonesia, InfoBank, Jurnal Pasar Modal, Media Akuntansi, DIA, Bahana, International Research Journal

of Finance and Economics, Journal of Business Management, Jurnal Ekonomi UKI, JAKI, JBR, Scripta Economica

UPH, Jurnal, Sinergi MMUII, published books, Internet.

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KOMUNIKASI:

E-mail: [email protected]

LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel

Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel

Facebook: Prof. Roy Sembel

E-Newsletter:

[email protected]

TALKING POINTS

CONTEXT 0F RISK MANAGEMENT

CONCEPT

CONCLUDING REMARKS

HUKUM MURPHY

If anything can go wrong, it will go wrong

if you try to please everyone,

some one will surely be disappointed

Leave to itself, thing will go from bad to

worse

Murphy is an optimistic person

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• 1+1=2

• Two separate revolutions

• Wireless datacom enabling technologies

• Change in human behavior

• 1+1>2

• Wireless and datacom enhance each other

• Standards drive massive application and service development

• Revolution in human behavior and society

•

• Datacom is everything. Everything is wireless

• All “gadgets” are addressable in one uniform network

• Change beyond imagination

• WIRELESS

+

INTERNET

Fundamental change in the

way we live & behaveMATRIX

-00 00-09 10-

WIRELESS

SERVICE

REVOLUTION

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The rise of

the new

economy

Transparency &

Competition

THREE KEYS OF THE NEW ECONOMY

• More choices

• 24-hour services

• Just a ‘click’ away

•Interaction costs

•Transformation costs

• Faster natural selection

• ‘Sticks and carrots’ to

become more eficient &

inovative

• More and faster

interaction &

transactions

• Globalization dan

localization

•Unbundling &

reassembling

business

organization,

government,

financial

instruments

HIGHER

RETURN & RISK

1010

危机

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GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS• GOOD NEWS:

+ GDPGROWTH: Chindonesia

+ GDP / CAPITA ~ US$ 3600

+ G 20, Rank 16th or 9th

+ PEACEFUL DEMOCRACY

+ NATIONAL HERRITAGE

+ MOBILE PHONE > 250MN

+ ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

+ BB+ BBB (INV GRADE)

+ CURRENCY RESERVES>$ 100B

+ MIDDLE CLASS $10-20/DAY INCR 5 X IN 10 YEARS

+ DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

+ DIRECT INVESTMENT > $30 B

+ CAR SALES > 1 MN UNITS

• BAD NEWS:

• - DECREASING EXPORT < $200 B

- VOLATILE IDR & IHSG

- HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT

- CENTRALIZED GROWTH

- HDI RANK

• - CORRUPTION PERCEPTION INDEX

- DEFORRESTRATION

- EASENESS OF DOING BUSINESS INDEX

- DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME

- INFRASTRUCTURE

- MARKET DISTORTION

- FUNDING COST

- AVAILABILITY OF ENERGY (ELECTRICITY, OIL, etc)

- LOW PERFORNANCE-BASED CULTURE

- LOW DOMESTIC INVESTOR BASE

Prof. Roy Sembel,

Ph.D

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SWOT ANALYSIS for the EconomySTRENGTHS:

Biodiversity: Land, Sea/River

Natural resources, mining, oil & gas

12 month sun

Marine resources

Natural beauty, arts, cultural diversity

Population 255 million

Geographical location

Demographic Bonus

WEAKNESSES:

Cryonism (KKN)

Law enforcement

Low Human Development Index

Lack of hard infrastructure

Market distortion

Weak public relations

Politics in transition

OPPORTUNITIES:

Emerging Asia

Recovery of US Economy

ICT growth

Intra ASEAN cooperation

WTO / AFTA

Low energy price

THREATS:

Global financial / economic crisis

Terrorism (Physical / Economy)

Epidemic/Pandemic virus/bacteria

Volatility of Commodity prices

Natural disasters

PROSPECT OF ECONOMY• Still single digit interest rate

• Global uncertainty

• GDP per capita ~ $ 3600

• Volatile IDR

• GDP growth still 4%-5 %

• Inflation ~ 5%-6%

• Mobile phone > 250 juta

• Infrastructure development

• Domestic consumption / Rising middle class

• Demographic bonus / dividend

•Domestic Stocks Long-term

investment, short-term trading

•EBA, REITs, Property

•Risk management / hedging

•Gold, Currency Trading

•Business that leverages social

media

•Travel, Tourism, Transportation

•Infrastructure, alternative

energy, modern retail outlet,

international-quality education,

hospitals/healthcare, etc.

•Insurance Prof. Roy Sembel, Ph.D

TALKING POINTS

CONTEXT 0F RISK MANAGEMENT

CONCEPT

CONCLUDING REMARKS

RISIKO

RISIKO ??

RISKY Wealth

R I S K Y Wealth

IT IS CRUCIAL TO MANAGE

THE RISK-RETURN PROFILE

Risk and Risk Management?

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Definition of Risk

– Risk is uncertainty

– Risk includes upside volatility

– Risk is deviation from expected

Risk Management

– Balancing risk and reward

– Balancing art and science

– Balancing process and people

– Risk Management is ultimately about people

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Risk monitoring is a low level function of the internal auditors

Risk: negative factor to be controlled

Risk managed separately in organizational silos

Responsibility for risk mgt is delegated to lower levels

Risk measurement is subjective

Unstructured and divergent risk management functions

Risk monitoring is the CEO’s Job (with Board oversight)

Risk as an opportunity

Risk managed in an integrated, enterprise-wide fashion

Risk mgt is responsibility of senior/line management

Quantification of risk

Risk management is built into all corporate management systems

from BACK ROOM to BOARD ROOM

Evolution of Management’s View of Risk

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ERM menurut COSO“… a process, effected by an entity's board of directors, management and other personnel, applied in strategy setting and across the enterprise, designed to identify potential events that may affect the entity, and manage risks to be within its risk appetite, to provide reasonable assurance regarding the achievement of entity objectives.”

Source: COSO Enterprise Risk Management – Integrated Framework. 2004. COSO.

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ERM Definitions

A process, ongoing and flowing through an entity

Effected by people at every level of an organization

Applied in strategy-setting

Applied across the enterprise, at every level and

unit, and includes taking an entity-level portfolio

view of risk

Designed to identify potential events affecting the

entity and manage risk with in its risk appetite

Able to provide reasonable assurance to an entity's

management and board. Source: COSO Enterprise Risk Management – Integrated Framework. 2004. COSO.

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Traditional Risk Management vs ERM

SCOPE • Narrow, Pure Risk

•Tangible Asset

• Enterprise Wide, Pure &

Speculative Risk

• Tangible & Intangible

STRATEGY• Primarily Insurance

Solutions

• Comprehensive Solutions

• Protection and Value

Creation

FOCUS• The ‘down-side

risk’, lack of total

risk portfolio

• Total risk portfolio

which affects bottom-

line, both ‘down-side’

and ‘up-side’ risk

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Risk management across sectors

Insurance Companies Commercial Banks Security Firms

Primary Risks Technical risk (liability risk) &

Investment risk (asset risk)

Credit risks & funding

liquidity risk

Market risk & liquidity risk

Typical Time

Horizon

Long-term

(often multiple years)

Medium-term

(usually one year)

Short-term

(often 1 to 10 days)

Risk

Measurement

Quantitative (actuarial) techniques to

calculate size of necessary technical

provisions

Risk limiting and sharing via

deductibles, reinsurance & ART

Asset and Liability management

Quantitative models calculate

economic capital necessary to

absorb unexpected credit loss

at target confidence level

Asset and Liability

management

Value-at-risk and stress

testing methodologies for

market & liquidity risk

Credit risk minimized through

collateral and master netting

agreements

Provisions /

reserves vs.

Capital

Technical provisions as estimate of

foreseeable claims while capital

covers unexpected losses

Provisions much higher than

Capital

Loan loss reserves to cover

expected losses and capital to

cover unanticipated losses

Capital usually higher than

Reserves

Holding capital rather than

reserves because valuation

on a mark-to-market basis

Capital much higher than

Reserves

Risk Identification

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Supervision across sectors

Insurance Companies Commercial Banks Security Firms

Capital

regulation /

solvency

regime

frameworks

(1) Risk-Based-Capital (USA,

Canada, Japan and others)

(2) Index based solvency regime

(EU and others)

Basel Accord (1) Net Capital approach (USA,

Canada, Japan, and others)

(2) EU Capital Adequacy Directive,

based on Basel Accord

Amendment for market risks

Overall concern Soundness of individual insurers,

not just system as a whole

Stability of system as a whole rather than preserving individual

banks

Accounting

conventions

Variety of different approaches Historical cost approach Marked-to-market

B/S Focus Liability side of balance sheet Asset side of balance sheet

Ratio actual vs.

required capital

Actual capital often several times

minimum required level

Usually hold no more than 150% of their capital requirement

Capital

frameworks

Different definitions of eligible capital, charges applied to individual risks, aggregation methodologies of

these charges, and scope of application of framework (to individual firms, groups of firms or

consolidated groups)

¢ Supervision differs significantly by sector and regions

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WISDOM for Risk Management

WATAK: SWOT

IMPIAN/INGIN: SMARTER Goal

SIASAT: Grand strategy

DIDIK: Capacity Building

OTAK/OTOT: Work smart, Work hard

METER: Measurement

MONITOR Monitor implementation

MANAJEMEN Resources Allocation

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CAPACITY BUILDING

FRAMEWORK

Hardware

Leadership

BrainwareMarketware

Software

CULTURE

Common

Goal

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Risk Management Awareness & Culture

Risk Philosophy

Basic attitude towards risk, should be aligned with Vision & Mission and Business Strategy.

Risk Tolerance/AppetiteThe level of risk the company is willing to accept in order to achieve its Business Strategy. The desired Risk Profile of the Enterprise

Risk Management Organization & Functions

Risk Governance

Framework Risk Language

Definition of Risks

Risk Management Policies

Laying down the foundation…

Risk Governance Framework

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Identify

AssessManage

Monitor

Identify & Map

Credit

Market/

Financial

Liquidity

Operational

Strategic

Where?

The cause?

Risk owner?

Control?

Measure & Evaluate

How much?

Individual vs organization-wide

What if scenarios

Normal vs. crisis

Range of measurement methods & tools

Risk Treatment

Accept, Mitigate, Avoid, Exploit, Transfer

Contingency Plans

Provisions & reserves

Improvement of business strategies, control and processes

Monitor & Report

Operational vs Oversight

Regulatory

Exposure vs Actual

Early warnings

Risk

Governance

Framework

Risk

Manageme

nt

Infrastruct

ure

Risk

Management

Process

Risk

Manag

ement

Risk Management Process

TALKING POINTS

CONTEXT 0F RISK MANAGEMENT

CONCEPT

CONCLUDING REMARKS

PERSEPSI ASURANSI ?

DIKEJAR AGEN PENJUAL

SULIT MENGAJUKAN KLAIM

ASURANSI

=

BEAST

ASURANSI JIWA:

MELANGGAR ‘KODRAT’

NASIB TAK BISA DIUBAH

PERNAH “TERTIPU”

ISU KEBANGKRUTAN

MAHAL

SOSIALISASI & SERTIFIKASI

Identify target audiences &

Customized message to each audience

Utilize ICT / SocMed

Cooperation with:

Media

Academics

Opinion builder

Association

Life Style Community

Sertifikasi Agen:

Kompetensi, Integritas, Service Excellent

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LAKUKAN MONITORING DAN EVALUASI HASIL

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P

R

O

V

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M

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N

T

S•Success Stories

•Weaknesses

•Barriers for improvements

•Opportunities for improvements

EX

TE

RN

AL

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

Procedures

Results

Facts Perceptions

C

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M

M

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I

C

A

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WISDOM, WEB, WEALTH

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