Managing without Growth Dr. Peter A. Victor York University Canada Thursday June 10, 2010
Dec 15, 2015
Managing without Growth
Dr. Peter A. VictorYork University
Canada
Thursday June 10, 2010
Outline
1. The economy: a sub-system of the biosphere2. Transgressing planetary boundaries3. Technology: helpful but not sufficient4. Scale matters5. Extreme global inequalities: rich countries should
go first6. Managing without growth in Canada
Firms HouseholdsEconomic Cycle
Firms HouseholdsEconomic Cycle
1. The economy: a sub-system of the biosphere
2. Excessive Burden on the Environment:Transgressing Planetary Boundaries
Billiontonnes Global Materials Extraction 1900 to 2005
100%
700%
3. Technology: helpful but not sufficient
1946 1970
1992 2010
1946 1970
1992 2010
‘I would say this is most environmentally friendly cruise ship to date. It is much more efficient than other similar ships.’ (Project engineer)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
GDP Resource extraction Population Material intensity
Material intensity is declining, but not fast enough
47%
110%
29%
Key message:Environmental impact depends on intensity and scale
GDP
Resource Extraction
Material Intensity
4. Must address scale as well as intensity
Energy consumption - same story
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
GDP Population Primary Energy Consumption Energy Intensity
59%
Key message:Environmental impact depends on intensity and scale
110%
24%
GDP
Primary Energy
Energy Intensity
5. Extreme global inequalities: rich countries should go first
LowGrow Canada
Can we have full employment, no poverty, fiscal balance,
reduced GHG emissions without relying on economic growth?
5. Managing without growth
LowGrow Canada
You bet!
What makes an economy grow?
• Macro demand (what we spend money on):– Consumption– Investment– Government– Trade
• Macro supply (what we can produce):– Labour– Capital– Productivity
‘Business as usual’
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
GDP per capita Unemployment Debt to GDP ratio
GHG emissions Poverty
GDP per Capita
GHG Emissions
Poverty
UnemploymentDebt to GDP Ratio
What happens if we eliminate increases in all sources of economic growth?
(starting in 2010 over 10 years)
• Consumption• Investment
• Government• Trade
• Population/labour• Productivity
A no growth disaster
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
GDP per capita Unemployment Debt to GDP ratio
GHG emissions Poverty
GDP per Capita
GHG Emissions
Poverty
Unemployment
Debt to GDP Ratio
‘The real issue is whether it is possible to challenge the “growth-at-any-cost model” and come up with an alternative that is environmentally benign, economically robust and politically feasible.’
Larry Elliot (economics editor)The Guardian Weekly 29th August 2008
A better low/no growth scenario
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
GDP per capita Unemployment Debt to GDP ratio
GHG emissions Poverty
How? • New meanings and measures of success• Limits on materials, energy, wastes and land use• Stable population and labour force• More efficient capital stock• Carbon price • Shorter work year• Fewer status goods• More generous anti-poverty programs• Education for life not just work
GDP per Capita
GHG EmissionsUnemployment
Poverty Debt to GDP Ratio