Managing uncertainty with scenario planning · Managing uncertainty with scenario planning Martin Börjesson [email protected] +46 704 262891 LOGOTYPER ITUE?S C EPS FÊRG?# - 9 +

Managing uncertainty with scenario planning

Martin Bö[email protected]

www.futuramb.se+46 704 262891

fredag, 2009 mars 27

Why am I here?


I’m going to make your world/design context a more complex place!


Challenges with design

Designers of today occasionally

1. don’t know what a user is

2. don’t understand what the users do or plan to do with artefact

3. don’t understand how the users think and why they are doing things

4. don’t understand the systemic user context and how it is changing/might change over time


Are design contexts stable?

• Are there differences between artefacts and systems?

• How fast are they changing?


Was it better in the old days?


future

Uncertainty

Wildcards

Now

2015

2025

How uncertain is the future?


Importance of understanding the systemic contextual environment

• We are currently living in a rather turbulent, changing and uncertain environment

• Artefacts and systems tend to live much longer then we expect

• The users are more increasingly

• more innovative

• more critical, demanding and unfaithful

• striving to define and master their own situation

• moving among different contexts


Clock of the Long Now


Contextualenvironment

Social factors, values and

demography

Technologydevelopment and

innovation

Environment and ecology

Politics, lawsand regulations

Economy, industries and companies

Transactionenvironment

Internalworld


Necessity of perspective


Key question

How do we understand and take into consideration the changing greater contextual environment?

An environment which is

• dynamicly changing

• complicated and complex

• uncertain

• abstract


Oil price development 1970 - 1981

High

Low

Base

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990


Oil price development 1970 - 1990

High

Low

Base

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Actual outcome



Clues


!“Memory of the future”

! The brain rearranges memory fragments to images of the future

! Provides a foundation for intentions and plans

! Focus perception and filter information

Autonomous


Uncertainty

in time

Un

certa

inty

in is

su

e

Today

Traditional

predictions

Driving f

Driving force

Driving force

Driving f

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D

Scenario logic

Different approach: focus on criticaluncertainties


The future for American automotive industry

Low-price fuel

High-price fuel

Neotraditionalvalues

Inner-directed values

Engineers’

Challenge•Efficiency

•Protectionism

Green

Highways•Smaller cars

•Versatility

Foreign

Competition•Sportier cars

•Light trucks and vans

Long Live

Detroit•Muscle cars

•Brand loyalty

(1980:s)


What’s the point?


Jail

The factory

bling bling

Systemsanalyst?

??


???(wwdkwdk)

don’t knowknow

haveknowledge

don’t have knowledge

Make horseshoes

Accounting

Fire and heat


Contextualenvironment


demography


innovation



Economy, industries and companies


Internalworld


Events

Patterns

Underlying structureCritical

uncertainties Technology

Laws & regulations

Economy

Values

Culture

Politics

Ecology

”CNN provides the events,Henry Kissinger is the underlying structure”

Driving forces

Systemic view


Scenario development

Events

Patterns

Underlying structure

Visible manifestations

Trends

Causal relations

Stories

Sequences of events

Drivkrafter

Scenariologik

System Scenarios

Critical uncertainties


1. Key focual issueand time perspective

5. Scenario logic

Scenario development

2.Key factors

4. Prioritization

3. Environmentaldriving forces

Internalworld


demography


innovation



Economy, industries and compananies

Environment



1. Choose key focal issue(+ time perspective)

2. Key factors


4. Prioritization

1. Key focal issue andtime perspective

5. Scenario logic

Uncertainty

Impact offoreseeable

factors

Distance to future

F S G

Source: Kees van der HeijdenScenarios – The Art of Strategic Conversation


2. List key factors

2. Key factors


4. Prioritization


5. Scenario logic

1. Brainstorm on PostIt notes!

– List everything you know have an impact

– ”Empty the barrel of the obvious”

2. Cluster notes and identify 4-6 key areas of impact

– Avoid generic predefined areas

– ”Let the notes talk!

Brainstorm tips:

• First individual brainstorm, then group discussion

• No single word PostIts

• ”Yes, and…”

• Keept the pace and keep the time limit!


3. Identify environmentaldriving forces

2. Key factors


4. Prioritization


5. Scenario logic

• Widen the search to a higher level

• Add driving forces which

• Impacts the 4-6 key areas of impact

• Impacts the focal issue directly

• Use STEEP model

Tips:

• Ask why, why, why, why, why (5 times)

• Don’t be afraid of long shots!

• Keep yourself in the outer environment


Social factorsCultural patterns

Values and lifestyles

Demographics

Health

Crime

Education

Technological factorsDiffusion of technologies

Innovations

Scientific progressEconomical factorsIndustries and companies

Global, regional and local economy

Labour force and income

Infrastructure

Environmental factorsEcology

Climate/weather

Pollution

Recycling

Energy

Political factorsPolicys, laws and regulations

Political agendas

Court decisions

STEEP-model2. Key factors


4. Prioritization


5. Scenario logic


4. Prioritize driving forces2. Key factors


4. Prioritization


5. Scenario logic

Unimportant

Uncertainty

Predeterminedelements

Criticaluncertainties

Impact


5. Construct scenario logic2. Key factors


4. Prioritization


5. Scenario logic

ABC XYZIssue

IssueHigh Low

ABC XYZ

High

Low

ScenarioA

ScenarioB

ScenarioC

ScenarioD

1. Identify two most critical uncertainties

• From the top right corner

2. Stretch them to their extremes

• Mutually exclusiveness!

3. Construct scenario cross

4. Discuss resulting scenarios andgive them telling names


Low-price fuel

High-price fuel

Neotraditionalvalues

Inner-directed values

Engineers’

Challenge•Efficiency

•Protectionism

Green

Highways•Smaller cars

•Versatility

Foreign

Competition•Sportier cars

•Light trucks and vans

Long Live

Detroit•Muscle cars

•Brand loyalty

Use of contextual scenarios

Evaluating/testing design

Learning aboutcontextual situation

Communicating and collaborating around contextual situation

Innovating and developing


Windtunneling/evaluating


Wind tunneling for adjusting design

Sketch or spec

A

B

C

A

B

C

Given factors

Secondary factors


Evaluating design with”adopt-a-world” model

A

B

C

Alternativefuture worlds

A

B

C

The market in each world

A

B

C

Products andservices in each world

Possible ways of design or

package business idea

Opportunities ExpertsNeed for products and services

1 2 3 4 5


Creating design roomshttp://www.smart-its.org/

• Three restaurants

• The edgy restaurant (experiences)

• The social restaurant (social interaction)

• The PC (Politically Correct) restaurant (ecological and ethical food and process)


Scenario planning

• Help us see the bigger picture...

• Not ignoring uncertainties

• Relate to larger environment

• Understand underlying driving forces

• ...and visualize and help us better understand both long and short term consequences

• Communicate our findings

• Collaborate and innovate

• Evaluate our design

• Widen our thoughts

• Identifies blind spots

• Facilitates learning on a strategic level


Scenario references

http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/Website with many references to articles, books and other resources

The Art of the Long ViewPeter Schwartz

Scenarios – The art of strategic conversationKees van der Heijden


Managing uncertainty with scenario planning · Managing uncertainty with scenario planning Martin Börjesson [email protected] +46 704 262891 LOGOTYPER ITUE?S C EPS FÊRG?# - 9 +

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