Managing Nuclear Knowledge and Nuclear Renaissance Quo Vadis? Yanko Yanev International Atomic Energy Agency
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Managing Nuclear Knowledge and Nuclear Renaissance
Quo Vadis?
Yanko YanevInternational Atomic Energy Agency
1. The world we live in and the growing interest in Nuclear Power.
2. The knowledge challenge for “nuclear”.
3. Managing Nuclear Knowledge – an overview.
4. The Nuclear Knowledge Management program of the Agency.
5. Nuclear Power Renaissance – where are we going?
2
The Topics of this lecture
3
The UN human development index
█ over 0.95█ 0.90-0.949 █ 0.85-0.899 █ 0.80-0.849
█ 0.75-0.799 █ 0.70-0.749 █ 0.65-0.699 █ 0.60-0.649
█ 0.55-0.599█ of 0.50-0.54█ of 0.45-0.49█ 0.40-0.449
█ 0.35-0.399 █ 0.30-0.349 █ <0.30 █ N/A
HDI and Electricity
Modern Energy in the 20th
centuryThe secret to success:
Every significant advance in the 20th century has been created by “modern energy”:Great energy milestones:
Big oil era began in 1901Electricity replaced coal, gas and kerosene generated lightInternal combustion engine created carsMiddle East oil created “cheap oil forever”Atomic energy created electricity ”too cheap to meter”Piping natural gas created miracle of energy heat
Wind and Solar are promising an “energy paradise” for allThroughout 90% of 20th Century, modern energy was virtually “free.”
World hungry for energy…
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mtoe Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Coal
Oil
World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise
World energy demand
Solar
DESPERATE ENERGY NEED
ACCELERATING GROWTH
ONGOING DEMAND
World of Scenarios and Projections
World population
World
World of Climate Change Realities
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
NUCLEAR
WIND
BIOMASS
HYDRO
SOLAR PV
NATURAL GAS
OIL
COAL
LIGNITE
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
NUCLEAR
WIND
BIOMASS
HYDRO
SOLAR PV
NATURAL GAS
OIL
COAL
LIGNITE
World that may be going to self‐destruction?
Nuclear power alone will not take us where we want to be but we will not make it without nuclear power!
Nuclear PowerIndividual countries
Mature Nuclear Countries & continue developing
Mature Nuclear Countries & phase out decision made
New comer Nuclear Countries & never finished to built
New comer Nuclear Countries with previous experiences Countries which has information in Country Nuclear Power Profiles
European landscape
The Demand for Knowledge
With a forthcoming high growth in nuclear industry worldwide, maintaining nuclear competencies both in industry and nuclear regulatory authorities will be the most critical challenge in the near future. Governments and the nuclear industry have already recognized the need to secure qualified human resources in the nuclear energy field.
Understanding Knowledge Development
Understanding of Nuclear Issues
Leve
l of I
nter
rela
tion complexity
understandingprinciples
Wisdom
understandingpatterns
Knowledge
understandingrelations
Information
Data
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 20051945
Nuclear Knowledgea remarkable achievement of human development
NKM Program 2008/9 1818
Nuclear knowledge is an asset
Industry Knowledge
Corporate and Executive Knowledge
Nuclear Processes / Manager and Supervisor Knowledge
Front line / Craftsperson / Skilled Labor Knowledge
Asset Classes:Physical Capital
- Equipment/HardwareTechnology Capital
- IT/Process KnowledgeHuman Capital
- People
A resource which was created by absorbing other resources, Has its own cost .Has to be managed in an efficient and effective manner to help to reach organizational or national goals.
The Knowledge Load for Nuclear Power
20
The “Knowledge challenges”Aging of nuclear personnel, retirement,Loss of valuable nuclear knowledge, Degradation in technology skills and know‐how,Possible degradation in safety of current installations?Dilution or loss of innovation potential?Status of Nuclear R&D? ‐ Gen4Education & Training, where are we heading?
Developed countries are the custodians of nuclear knowledge accumulated over decades. There is consensus that actions need to be taken to preserve its key parts.Problem: effective knowledge transfer between generations of workers, the need to sustain and develop sufficient human resources to sustain the operation of existing facilities and to prepare for a possible expansion in the future.
21
Developing countries face different knowledge problems: capacity building, access to and transfer of knowledge to the “country of growth”. Knowledge and human resources need to be build up for new nuclear power programmes, and knowledge needs to be sustained (and not be brain‐drained).
22
Needed Knowledge for Nuclear power development
InstrumentationControl and Indus. Info.
Safety,Fuel,
Neutron Physics
Metallurgy,Structure of Materials,Non intrusive ControlCivil
EngineeringElectromechanical
Engineering
Operations
Design,Process
Thermohydraulics
Radiationprotection
Chemistry Environment Calculation code
Signal processing
15%
14%
11%
6%11%
25%
10%
2% 4% 2%
Countries Review
Do we have the people with the right knowledge and skills to achieve a sustained growth in Nuclear power
worldwide?
USA landscape
Nuclear Engineering Trends in Nuclear Chemistry
Programs
Source: NEDHO 2004
Trends In Graduates Enrollment and Trends In Graduates Enrollment and Federal Investment Federal Investment –– 19901990‐‐20082008
DO
E In
vest
men
t ($
in M
illio
ns –
red)
Num
ber of Undergrad S
tudents -yellow
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
35 250020
08
undergrads
DOE-NE $
“Enrollment Metric”
28/15
The needs of the French nuclear program
Per year 2011 Per year after 2011
TotalEngineers& PhD
TotalEngineers& PhD
Industry 1 200 900 1 100 650
R&D 250 120 200 100
Subcontractors
1 000 500 700 300
Total 2 450 1 500 2 100 1 050
29
The Russian nuclear workforce
The German Phase‐out
Need for nuclear specialists in Germany
Manpower for Operating China NPPs
No.
of E
mpl
oyee
s (c
umul
ativ
e)
Year
33
UK Nuclear human resource
Time to build competence
National Priorities of IAEA Member States
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
National NKMPriorities
Education Knowledgetransfer
R&D Knowledgesharing
Training andqualification
Series1
Critical Knowledge IssuesHow to retain existing skills and competences for the long period during which a plant is operating, especially when facilities in that country may be at the end of the life cycle and no additional facilities are foreseen in the near future.
How to develop new skills and competences in areas such as decommissioning and radioactive waste management, which may be viewed as "sunset" activities and therefore unattractive to young people.
How to support a revival of nuclear power in countries wishing to do so, with an ageing workforce and declining programs.
Markets can create and preserve knowledge only in areas of commercial interest and during the time this interest lasts.
Managing nuclear knowledge requires long‐term planning and remains in the responsibility of governments as a part of national development plans and international obligations both for developed and developing countries.
37
Are we not duplicating industry?
Can the “market” protect knowledge alone?
Industry must address immediate requirements◦ Design, delivery, and
operations need constant focus
◦ Safety and regulation◦ EconomicsGovernments must address longer term issues◦ Policy‐making◦ R&D for
Pre‐commercialStrategicRegulatory
◦ Underlying science◦ Education & infrastructure◦ Agency Government
focus
38
Players and Roles
Lower RiskShort Term
Higher RiskLong Term
Ris
k
Time
IndustryFocus
GovernmentFocus
Lower RiskLong Term
Higher RiskShort Term
The role for the Agency is to assist in the transfer of knowledge from “centres of competence” to the “centres of growth”.
Potentially high risk of knowledge loss and additional cost for future generationsmust be avoided, and the Agency can help to integrate this long‐term aspect into today's strategic decisions.
39
The Role of the IAEA
40
Agency’ Programme Evolution
Analyzing Needs
2000 20112003 2005 2007 2009
Promoting NKM
Guidance & Methodology
Providing Services & Support
20041st NKM Conference
ANENT, WNU SI established
GC/RES on Managing Nuclear Knowledge
2002 Meeting of Senior
Officials st GC RES on Managing Nuclear
Knowledge
2006/72nd NKM ConferenceNuclear Knowledge
PortalANENT Cyber
platform launched 3rd GC RES
Knowledge MANAGEMENT Knowledge CULTURE
2005 1st KM Assist Visit NKM Methodology
& Guidance developed
2008/9 – 2010/111.Promoting Knowledge Management Culture2. Providing Services3. Developing knowledge products4. Facilitate networking and knowledge sharing.
Nuc
lear
Ene
rgy
Seri
es
Knowledge Management Methodology
50-SG-Q1 to Q7Safety Guides
50-C-Q CodeQuality Assurance
GS-G-3.1 Thematic Guidance on Management Systems
GS-R-3Safety Requirements onManagement Systems
50-SG-Q8 to Q14Safety Guides
DS 349 Specific Guidance for MS
Of Nuclear Facilities
+ new material(Knowledge Management)
+ new material(Knowledge Management)
+ new material
NKM is part of Integrated Management System
IAEA NKM Publications
NKM Guidance under development
Knowledge Management for Radwaste Management Organizations,Process Oriented Knowledge Management in Nuclear operating OrganizationsManaging Knowledge in New NPP Builds
NKM Program 2008/9 45
Post Con
struction
Constructio
n
Procurem
ent
Pre Co
nstructio
n
Perm
itting
Value En
gine
ering
Due
Diligence
Assign Project T
eam
Project B
uy‐out
Subcon
tracts
Purchase Orders
Mob
ilizatio
n
Staging
Layout
Ope
ratio
ns
Project C
lose Out
Owne
r Accep
tance
Warranty
Project E
valuation
Long
Lead Item
s
30 Months 16 Months 36 Months 16 Months
Build Bid PackageRFQ
Bid Eval Award NTP Scheduled Construction
Design Commitment Design Completion RFI’s Submittal Review Change Order Review Time Extension Justification
BFO
COL
COLA
License Ope
ratio
nal
Ongoing
Licen
se Docs
Ope
ratio
nal Sup
port
24 months Continuing
Development Evaluation Assessment Supportive Conclusion Continuance
App
lication Develop
men
t
Review Review
.
Compliance Matrix
ASME SECTIONS 3 + 11
Construction Oversight Knowledge Management Tool for new build NPPs
45
NKM and Construction Oversight
46
The NKM project for nuclear education
Comprehensive, supporting materials
All the Agency’s resources
INISLibraryTraining materialsNuclear Safety SeriesNuclear Energy docs.National reportsOthers
The Cyber Learning Platform
Operated jointly by Member States and IAEA
(Industry?)
Programs and Curricula
Cooperation with MEPhI, ENEN, Dalton Inst., etc.
Provision of Educators, Mentors, and Tutors
A bit more complicated
INFORMATION RESOURCES
CYBER PLATFORM
NUCLEAR DISCIPLINES
IAEA Global Nuclear Education Platform –
Operated from KAERI, Vienna, Bariloche, Johannesburg
Agency Network for Education in Nuclear Technology
Support to develop, consolidate, and utilize the web-based standardized education and training materials
Provide infrastructure for distance, knowledge sharing and communication in nuclear education.
Currently operate or under consideration:
ANENTLA NENTAFRA NENT(?)
A - N E N T
NKM Program 2008/9 48
Supporting WNU
The Agency is a founding supporter of the WNU.IAEA supports fellows from developing countries through the TC program.IAEA provides faculty to WNU Summer Institute and other WNU programs.
48
The Knowledge Assist Visits
Evaluation of organizational NKM elements,
Analysis of organizational needs for NKM,
Support in developing a Strategy for NKM,
Assistance in methods and tools for NKM,
Risk assessment of knowledge loss.
50
Fast Reactor Knowledge System
IAEA
JAPAN
USA
GERMANY
FRANCE
RUSSIA
UK
IAEA-broker
andprovider
END
USER
+ links to other Knowledge Resources
General Principles:
•Electronic Documents Access
•Confidentiality and Intellectual property rights
•Sharing and commercial access
DATA
FAS
T RE
AC
TOR
S
INFO
RM
ATIO
N
KNOW-HOW
INDIA
51
“NuArch” ‐ Archiving the “Nuclear Internet”
1. A web crawler identifies and downloads (harvests) nuclear information resources from the Internet.
2. The harvested materials is automatically indexed and stored in a high-volume archive with version control.
3. A customised version of an advanced search engine indexes all contents.
4. Specialised analysis tools are developed.
NuA
rch
Managing Nuclear Knowledge
Nuclear knowledge is critical to the development of human civilization.
Nothing ever works on its own. It always has to be managed.’
New talent is badly needed if Nuclear power will play its role in the energy future.
Number one priority!
Three reasons to consider when talking about Renaissance…
The world is in desperate need of energy.
By releasing waste from fossil energy production into the atmosphere, we pollute the environment and we pass on to our children a little more each day. Is that acceptable? Is it sustainable?
Mankind has ‐ since its beginnings ‐ proved itself capable, apart from a few setbacks in the history of some civilizations, of controlling technical progress to ensure its own well being and the smooth development of the planet.
And the two High‐Tech laws that apply also to nuclear…
"The beginnings of any technology‐rich business are all characterized by a shortage of large numbers of technically trained people needed to support ultimate growth" "The resources will come when the business becomes attractive to the best‐and brightest who adapt skills to become part of an exciting opportunity"
QUO VADIS ‐ Where are we going?
When Saint Peter met Jesusas he was running from being crucified in Rome, Peter asked Jesus the question –Quo vadis?
Jesus answered, "I am going to Rome to be crucified again“.
This prompted Peter to gain the courage to continue his ministry and eventually become a martyr.
THANK YOU,
Browse your best resource on Managing Nuclear Knowledge :http://www.iaea.org/inisnkm
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