Managing Future Agricultural Production in a Variable and Changing Climate Steven Crimp, Alison Laing, Bronya Alexander, Phil Bowden, Kerry Bridle, Peter Brown, Howard Cox, Peter deVoil, Jan Edwards, Alex Gartmann, Peter Hayman, Mark Howden, Philip Kokic, Shaun Lisson, Neil McLeod, Jim Meckif, Barry Mudge, Uday Nidumolu, David Parsons, Brendan Power, Michael Robertson, Daniel Rodriguez, Janet Walker, Michael Wurst 17 November 2009
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Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
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Managing Future Agricultural Production in a Variable and Changing Climate
Steven Crimp, Alison Laing, Bronya Alexander, Phil Bowden, Kerry Bridle, Peter Brown,
Howard Cox, Peter deVoil, Jan Edwards, Alex Gartmann, Peter Hayman, Mark Howden,
Philip Kokic, Shaun Lisson, Neil McLeod, Jim Meckif, Barry Mudge, Uday Nidumolu,
David Parsons, Brendan Power, Michael Robertson, Daniel Rodriguez, Janet Walker,
Michael Wurst
17 November 2009
Converting analysis into action
Vulnerability = fn( Impacts , Adaptation)
Exposure & sensitivity
adaptation options; adaptive
capacity & resilience
Effective adaptation will depend on which learning style is appropriate
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Low climatic variability
• If there is both increased climate variability as well as underlying trends then broader “social networks” as well as individual re-learning will be required.
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
High variability
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Climate trend and increasing variability
Participatory engagement key part of research
• Expert agricultural knowledge is with farmers.
• Ensuring ‘real’ cropping systems and feasible adaptation options are evaluated.
• Encourages solution-seeking and discussion of many potential options and supports some aspects of individual re-learning.
Project Design
Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies
Project partners and activity locations
• Links with previous research undertaken in NSW (blue dots).
• Provides a national coverage allowing inter-comparison of research between regions (e.g. hotter drier places).
Adaption options simulated and evaluated in terms of yield and gross margins
Comparisons across regions
Group workshops and individual interviews
Project evaluation
Conclusions
• Our research to date has shown that local expert knowledge and modelling can be combined to examine the value of adaptation from local to regional scales.
• The regional variability of adaptation results shows clearly that local knowledge will be required to adapt to projected changes and hence combining local expert knowledge and modelling is a crucial activity.
• The prospect of adapting to significant climate change remains challenging across all of Australia.
Thank you
Steven CrimpPhone: +61 2 6242 1649 or +61 428482940Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au