Management of Natural and Environmental Resources for Sustainable Agricultural Development Use of the Object Modeling System for Operational Water Supply Forecasting By Tom Perkins (NRCS) & Tom Pagano (NRCS) 14 February 2006 Portland, OR World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
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Management of Natural and Environmental Resources for Sustainable Agricultural Development
Use of the Object Modeling System for Operational Water Supply Forecasting
ByTom Perkins (NRCS) & Tom Pagano (NRCS)
14 February 2006 Portland, OR
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The path we’ve trod…
•Early Years
•State-based Operations
•Centralized in Portland
•New Technologies
The first forecast of the Lake Tahoe “rise” was in 1911. This is the earliest known water supply forecast in the United States.
The snow water content on Mt. Rose, Nevada on April of 1910 was 597 mm. In 1911, it was 1128 mm. Based on those snow course measurements, Dr. James Church, predicted that the Lake Tahoe “rise” would be 189 percent of the previous year.
A bit short of water with such a short calculator!
• Modernize water supply forecasting environment
• Desire for new hydrograph- based products
• We’ve got all of this daily SNOTEL data
• Modeling dream
• 1983 reorganization
Simple linear regression
Stepwise linear regression
Principal components statistical techniques
Statistical analysis with jackknifing
Non-linear statistical analysis
Z-score statistical techniques
110 baud communications to Fort Collins, Colorado
Water resource managers and users want/need forecasts of any parameter you can derive from a hydrograph:
Flow on a dateDate of a threshold
Magnitude and date of peak
Daily scenarios for use in reservoir optimization programs
Weekly, monthly volumes
Some forecast methodologies are decades to centuries old
MODELS
Leavesley 1985Marron 1986(PRMS)
Jones 1986Perkins 1988(SSARR)
Cooley 1986 (NWSRFS)
Shafer/Marron 1987 (SRM)
Garen/Marks 1996-98(spatial snow model)
NRCS Operational Simulation Modeling History
Competition and increasing demands on our finite water resources are causing water managers to modify their management strategies
Water resource managers want to know more than just seasonal volumes
1991 NRCS Simulation Modeling Plan
• Compared options: SRM, SSARR, PRMS, NWSRFS
• Calibrate 200 basins in 5 years with 3 staff hydrologists
Several recent technological advances make simulation modeling do-able with fewer human resources
So…what’s changed?
Current Modeling Activities
•Models can be tailored to forecaster’s situation/need•There is no need to reinvent modeling infrastructure•System is flexible and up-gradable•Partnership and technology sharing with other agencies•Widely used and documented
Precipitation-Runoff Modeling SystemPRMS
Modular Modeling SystemMMS
Current modeling components• ArcGis to reproject downloaded basin digital elevation model data
• GIS Weasel to distribute hydrologic response unit (HRU) parameters
• Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model - (includes HRU parameter distribution and ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) modules)
• Microsoft Office Excel-based automatic data downloading routines and output viewer
Components missing on NWCC system• In-house application to develop relationships to distribute precipitation and temperature
Applied climate information system (ACIS)National Water Information System (NWIS)SNOw TELemetry System (SNOTEL)HYDROlogic and METeorologic Monitoring System (Hydromet)Others….
Automated data networks…
Snotel (NRCS) Network ACIS (NWS) Network
Mar 31, 2005
Blue: Reporting
Red: Missing
Data gathering and screening for MMSReal-time data automatically downloaded and
reformatted daily
• Real-time data quality “a concern”• Martyn Clark (University of Colorado) has created a
real-time temperature and precipitation quality control module that can be used stand-alone or as part of Modular Modeling System (MMS).
• Martyn also provided an initial cleaned up historical NWS/NRCS dataset
• United States Geological Survey (USGS)• National Weather Service (NWS)• Regional Climate Centers (RCC-ACIS)• Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)
• OMS will be the modeling platform for NRCS• TR20, TR55, WEPP, PRMS will be included
initially• Other models will be considered in the future• The NWCC Water Supply Forecasting models
will be the initial program prototypes
Plots of individual parameters vs time
Plots of combined parameters vs time
Zoom feature
Data Plots
Probability Distributions
XY Plots
Flow Durations
Observed/Predicted Statistics
Etc.
Current OMS Modeling Components•PRMS model with all MMS modules
•Graphical User Interface
•Output module
Soon to be completed components•Hydrologic response unit parameter distribution modules•Hydrologic response unit delineation module•Automatic calibration module•Conditioned ensemble streamflow prediction scenarios•10-day quantitative climatic forecast interface•Data acquisition modules•Data quality control routines•Report analysis