Malthus is Still Wrong Prabhu Pingali Deputy Director Agriculture Development Plenary Presentation to the 7 th International Conference of the Asian Society of Agricultural Economists, held in Hanoi, Vietnam October 13 th , 2011 Views expressed are personal We Can Feed a World of 9 Billion
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Malthus is still Wrong - we can feed a world of 9 billion
Malthus is still wrong - we can feed a world of 9 billion. Plenary presentation to the Asian society of Agricultural Economists. Hanoi, Vietnam, October 13th, 2011.
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Malthus is Still Wrong
Prabhu Pingali
Deputy Director
Agriculture Development
Plenary Presentation to the 7th International Conference of the Asian
Society of Agricultural Economists, held in Hanoi, Vietnam
The UN’s medium growth scenario has population increasing by 50% between 2000 and 2050, from 6 billion to about 9 billion people.
When coupled with significant nutritional improvements for the 2.1 billion people currently living on less than $2/day (World Bank 2008), this translates into a very substantial rise in the demand for agricultural production.
FAO estimates the increased demand at 70 percent of current production, with a figure nearer 100% in the developing countries (Bruinsma 2009).
At the same time, the growing use of biomass for energy generation has introduced an important new source of industrial demand in agricultural markets (Energy Information Agency 2010).
Rising food prices have further encouraged Neo-Malthusian
Land quality: SSA and SA are plagued by severely degraded soils
Maize yield response to various nutrient combinations
Soil health is a key enabler of sustained productivity improvements
Source: S. Zingore 2011
Poor Soil Health
Good Soil Health
Soil health impacts baseline yields and enhances the effectiveness of inputs
No matter how effectively other conditions are remedied, per capita food production in Africa will continue to decrease unless soil fertility depletion is effectively addressed. – Sanchez and Jama 2002
Sectoral competition is increasing for blue water withdrawals for human uses
Direct and indirect negative effects have been well documented, these include: • Declining water tables • Drainage of wetlands; • Nutrient loading of surface
water and groundwater; • Salinization and waterlogging
of soils; • Agrochemical contamination; • Siltation of rivers.