Malawi General Elec-on 2014 Analysis and Trends Dr Gerhard Anders Centre of African Studies
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Malawi General Elec-on 2014 Analysis and Trends
Dr Gerhard Anders Centre of African Studies
Tripar-te Elec-ons
• Presiden-al elec-ons
• Local government elec-ons
• Parliamentary elec-ons
Results Presiden-al Elec-ons
Registered voters: 7,475,806; votes cast: 5,288,258, turnout: 70.8%.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mutharika: 36.4%
Chakwera: 27.8%
J. Banda: 20.2%
A. Muluzi: 13.7%
others: 1.8%
Mutha r i k a : 36.4% C h a kw e r a : 27.8% J. Banda: 20.2% A. Muluzi: 13.7% o t h e r s : 1.8%
Comparison with 2009 Presiden-al elec-on
In 2014, Peter Mutharika (DPP): 36.4 % (1,904,399). In 2009, Bingu Wa Mutharika (DPP): 65.98% (2,946,103). In 2014, Lazarus Chakwera (MCP): 27.8% (1,056,236). In 2009, John Tembo (MCP): 30.69% (1,370,044). In 2014, Atupele Muluzi (UDF): 13.7% (717,224). No candidate in 2009. In 2004, Bingu Mutharika (UDF): 35.9%. In 2014, Joyce Banda (PP): 20.2% (1,056,236).
2014 Local Government Elec-ons
2nd local government elec-ons in Malawi‘s history. The last were held in 2000 with only 17% turnout won by the UDF (70%).
In 2014, 457 seats with total votes 5,153,993 (turnout 68.99%). DPP: 165 seats MCP: 131 seats PP: 65 seats UDF: 57 seats CCP: 2 seats AFORD: 1 seat
Women won 56 and men 401 seats (14%).
Results Parliamentary Elec-ons
DPP: 50 seats
MCP: 48 seats PP: 26 seats
UDF: 14 seats AFORD: 1 seat
Chipani cha Pfuko: 1
Independents: 52 seats
Total: 193 seats, 5,234,506 votes (turnout: 70.07%)
Comparison with 2009 parliamentary elec-on
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2009 2014
DDP
MCP
UDF
Independents
PP
Changes DPP lost 64 seats. These were won by MCP (+22 seats), PP (+ 26 seats)
and independents (+20 seats). MCP made impressive gains but has become a regional party. The rise of the PP split the Southern vote between DPP, PP and UDF plus
a large number of independents. Number of female MPs fell from 41 (21.24%) in 2009 to 30 seats (18.5%). Conclusions: Peter Mutharika is indeed not very popular but Joyce Banda
has not succeeded in turning the PP into the same success story as Mutharika with the DPP. Her gains were impressive but not enough support in the South and the urban areas. UDF keeps losing ground. MCP has not succeded in reversing the trend.
Parliamentary Elec-ons: North
DPP: 6 seats
MCP: 2 seats
PP: 14 seats
AFORD: 1 seat
Independents: 10 seats
7 districts (Chi-pa, Karonga, Rumphi, Likoma, Mzimba, M‘mbelwa, Nkhata Bay), 33 cons-tuencies
Parliamentary Elec-ons: Central Region
DPP: 11 seats
MCP: 46 seats
PP: 5 seats
Independents: 11 seats
10 districts, 73 cons-tuencies
Parliamentary Elec-ons: South
DPP: 33 seats
PP: 8 seats UDF: 14 seats
Independents: 30 seats
CCP: 1 seat
14 districts, 87 cons-tuencies
Summary Parliamentary elec-ons Parliamentary elec-ons by gender: Female: 30, Male: 162 (Total: 192)
Cons-tuencies in urban areas Lilongwe City: DPP: 2; MCP: 1, Independent: 1 Blantyre City: DPP: 6; Independents: 2 Support for DPP strongest in South (33 seats: Thyolo, Chiradzulu,
Mulanje, Phalombe, Blantyre) but also strong in Ntcheu (6 seats).
Support for MCP limited to Central Region. Support for PP mainly in the North and Zomba. Support for UDF limited to Mangochi, Balaka, Machinga.
Long-‐term trends
• Judicializa-on, lawfare. Since 2004, courts have played a more prominent role in adjudica-ng conflicts between par-es and within par-es.
• Vola-le and fragmented poli-cal landscape (chameleon poli-cs). The large number of independents and the situa-onal loyalty of poli-cians in combina-on with presiden-al populism create instability. Professor Kanyongolo refers to this as ad hocism.
• Regional and ethnic poli-cs is less important than during the 1990s. Compare 2014 and 2009 with 1999 and 1994.
Allega-ons of vote rigging • On 20 May, several polling sta-ons experience logis-cal difficul-es. This results in protests and unrest,
especially in Blantyre. Vo-ng at some polling sta-ons extended to 21 & 22 May. • On 22 May, Commonwealth observers note ‘serious shortcomings’ in distribu-on of ballot papers, boxes,
forms, etc. but speak of ‘peaceful, orderly and transparent’ elec-ons. EU observa-on mission notes ‘considerable organisa-onal shortcomings’ but assesses ‘overall conduct of vo-ng as being good or very good in 92% of 404 polling sta-ons’. The mission praises MEC as ‘impar-al’ and ‘inclusive’. Vote coun-ng informa-on system collapses.
• Joyce Banda holds a press conference where she claims fraud. She also applies to High Court for an
injunc-on to stop MEC from announcing the results. High Court rejects applica-on. • On 23 May, unofficial figures confirm that Mutharika and DPP are in the lead, with MCP second and PP
third. • On 24 May, 30% of results released confirming these figures. Joyce Banda tries to annul the elec-ons,
calling for a stop of vote coun-ng and sugges-ng new elec-ons within 90 days. • On 29 May, MEC chair Judge Mbendera speaks of ‘free, fair and transparent’ elec-ons, 65 polling sta-ons
under inves-ga-on. 75% of the votes are ‘verified and tallied’. 248 complaints processed, 216 resolved, 26 further evidence requested, 6 incomplete. MEC proposes 30 days for physical recount. Recount blocked by court injunc-ons.
• On 30 May, High Court decides that no extension for a recount will be given (sec-on 99 of PPE Act). Count cannot extend the 8 day period. Mbendera announces results.
Context
• A climate of suspicion in the run-‐up,
• Most opinion polls suggested Banda is the frontrunner,
• Logis-cal and technical problems,
• Lawfare with a barrage of injunc-ons.
What will happen next? Chameleon poli-cs: many independents will join DPP. Art. 65 might prevent PP from joining DPP. Treason charges against Mutharika will be dropped. Cashgate inves-ga-ons will include Joyce Banda. Recount will fizzle out with inconclusive results.
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