MAKING THE NUMBERS WORK FOR YOU Masuma Farooki [email protected].

MAKING THE NUMBERS WORK FOR YOU

Masuma [email protected]

What Can Numbers Do?

•Situating a research question•Justifying sector and sampling choices

▫Sample size vs. Market size•Justifying policy issues and implications

▫Importance to the economy•Supporting the story•Time Lines and Path Dependency

▫Explanatory Power

UNCTAD All Commodity Monthly Price Index (1960-2009 ) (2000=100)

Source: Calculated from UNCTAD Statistics online accessed June 2009

Identifying What You Need• The Context: A global/national look at the issue at

hand, to evidence the importance of the issue and why it needs to be looked at.

• The Specifies: Sectoral information focusing on secondary sources rather than information gleamed from fieldwork.

• The Comparison: In analysis, discussion and

generalisations, comparisons to others. Comparisons can be across sectors, economies or over time horizons.

Where Can The Information Be Found?•International Databases •Pre-Constructed sets•IFI Reports•Non-database sources

Major Data-BasesInstitution Databases Indicators

World Bank www.worldbank.org/data

World Development Indicators

Country level macro economic indicators.

UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics on linehttp://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=1890&lang=1

Various International Statistics

Trade breakdown by Commodity Group

COMTRADE http://comtrade.un.org/ Trade data Commodity level statistics

World Bank (Pink Sheet) Up-to-date Commodity Price Data

Monthly updates of commodity prices.

IMF http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm

World Economic Outlook Commodity Prices

Country level time series on major indicators(overlaps with WDI but is more up to date)

UNCTAD: INFOCOMM http://r0.unctad.org/infocomm/anglais/indexen.htm#

Commodity data Links to commodity specific data sources

Major Data-BasesInstitution Databases Indicators

USGShttp://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/

Production DataMajor global producersGood historical time series

UN Data Explorerhttp://data.un.org/Browse.aspx?d=ILO

Various International Statistics

Complete list and access to UN Data sets.

Trade Statisticshttp://imts.wto.org/other_e.htm

List of major trade datasets websites

African Economic Outlookhttp://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/

Data specifically for African countries

Recent years, Macro indicators

Pre-Constructed Sets

Asian Drivers SSA Commodities Data Base (1998-2006)

•Production•Trade•Prices•By Country and Commodity

Pre Constructed Sets

www.commodities.open.ac.ukUp-to-date information on•Production•Trade•Prices

Other SourcesSite Web Address

Commodities (private sector)

Mine Webhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page1? Metal Bulletin http://www.metalbulletin.com/

Commodities Nowhttp://www.commodities-now.com/

Mining Journal http://www.mining-journal.com/

Mines and Communitieshttp://www.minesandcommunities.org/

Mining nerdshttp://www.miningnerds.com/

Commodity SpecificProduct Databases Website

CopperInternational copper study group

http://www.icsg.org/

Natural GasInternational Association for Energy Economics

http://www.iaee.org

Diamonds IDEX exchangehttps://www.idexonline.com Oil OPEC http://www.opec.org

IFI Reports• UNCTAD: World Investment Report: www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=1485

• UNCTAD: Trade and Development Reporthttp://www.unctad.org/templates/Page.asp?intItemID=2508&lang=1

• IMF: World Economic Outlook (bi-annual)http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm

• World Bank: World Development Report. www.worldbank.org/wdr

• Single country updates may also be available at www.worldbank.org/countries

• African Development Bank: African Development Report

http://www.afdb.org/en/documents/publications/african-development-report

Company Presentations

•London Metals Exchange•The Big MNC’s •Consultants

▫ CRU metals http://crugroup.com/Services/PriceRiskManagement/Pages/default.aspx

▫US Funds http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/publications/research/

▫Base Metals http://www.basemetals.com/

Sign up for News Letters

•The FT•Mining Journal•Specific Associations•China-Africa Confidential•Small Investor Conferences

Networking

•Be prepared to grovel!•Get a senior Prof. to send an email•Use contacts through the MMCP•Free Trials! Remember they need you too!•Write to IFI’s… they do respond!

Tricks of the Trade

•For global/country level indicators try to use the same data base (for country indicators use the world bank set as opposed to the UN set)

•You may need to use multiple sources to construct a singular time line, ensure that the data is approximately consistent between the two sets.

Tricks of the Trade

•Flipping Data Sources. Nothing in the national accounts, try the World Bank.

•Using Trade Data to substitute for Production Figures

•Historical Timelines, explain ‘events’

Tricks of the Trade

•Line charts are not always the way to go, bar charts can occasionally make data much more easy to present, especially in the case of missing values.

•Play with different charts.

•Put in an index for comparison

1992M1 1993M5 1994M9 1996M1 1997M5 1998M9 2000M1 2001M5 2002M9 2004M1 2005M5 2006M9 2008M1 2009M50

50

100

150

200

250

Index of Fuel and Non Fuel Commodities (2005=100)

Index of Fuel and Non Fuel Commodities (2005=100)

Source; IMF Commodity Price Statistics, accessed March 2010

Copper Price

1980M1 1982M4 1984M71986M101989M1 1991M4 1993M71995M101998M1 2000M4 2002M72004M102007M1 2009M40

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Copper, LME, grade A cathodes, cif Europe

Copper, LME, grade A cathodes, cif Europe

Source; IMF Commodity Price Statistics, accessed March 2010

Copper Price

1980M1 1982M4 1984M71986M101989M1 1991M4 1993M71995M101998M1 2000M4 2002M72004M102007M1 2009M40

50

100

150

200

250

Copper Price

Index of Industrial Inputs (2005=100) Copper (2005=10)

Source; IMF Commodity Price Statistics, accessed March 2010

Tricks of the Trade• Don’t re-invent the wheel! If someone has already

complied a set, use it.

• Ask other authors for the data they have used in articles… they are flattered by the attention!

• Make sure ‘source’ is clear in terms of date accessed and website address. On-line databases are updated regularly and the numbers do change.

• Round off numbers in tables, (especially when using millions/billions).

Tricks of the Trade

•In finalising data to be used within the text, consider using a single table/graph that can be used to support a number of your arguments.

•Where information is in not $ values, percentages are always a way to step around conversion issues.

Tricks of the Trade

•Be prepared to loose data… just because you spent 5 days digging up information does not mean it will make the final cut!

•Learn to ‘play’ with Excel graphs, the ‘default’ setting does not always work best.

•Use Google and Google Scholar… they work!

Individual Sessions?