Making Nature Useless Relative Dematerialization & Absolute Peaks Iddo Wernick Program for the Human Environment Resources For the Future Washington DC November 5, 2014 Report on work done with Jesse Ausubel, Alan Curry and Paul Waggoner phe.rockefeller.edu
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Making Nature Useless���Relative Dematerialization & Absolute Peaks���
������
Iddo Wernick���Program for the Human Environment���
���Resources For the Future���
Washington DC���November 5, 2014���
���Report on work done with Jesse Ausubel, Alan Curry���
and Paul Waggoner���phe.rockefeller.edu
Can improving efficiency and changing consumer preferences overwhelm���
rising population and affluence��� to reduce the tons of material ���
that Americans use? The World?
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Resource Concerns 1. National Security 2. Commerce 3. Environmental Quality
1952
1972 1999 Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Resource Efficiency US Potato yield, production, & area harvested:
1950-2010
Data source: USDA 2013
0
1
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
1970
= 1
Area harvested
Production
Yield
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Sources: FAO (2014); World Bank (2014)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Inde
x 1961 = 1
Industrial Roundwood Paper and Paperboard Wood Fuel Wood-‐Based Panels Sawnwood
Global Forest Products Intensity of Use ���(Cubic Meters/$ GDP)
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Measures of Commodity Use
• Relative o Intensity of Use (IOU) measured as kg/$GDP o Falling IOU ==> “Dematerialization“
• Absolute o Absolute use (ABS) measured as kg, kWh, Ha,
liters…
o Falling ABS ==> “Peak”
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0.1
1
10
100
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
IOU
/IOU
1940
Plastics
Aluminum
Potash
Phosphate
Paper
Timber
Steel
Lead
Copper
IOU of 9 basic commodities: US 1900-1970
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center, 2013; Johnston and Williamson, 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; GDP in 2005 dollars; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
0.1
1
10
100
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
IOU
/IOU
1940
Plastics
Aluminum
Potash
Phosphate
Paper
Timber
Steel
Lead
Copper
1970
IOU of 9 basic commodities: US 1900-2010
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center, 2013; Johnston and Williamson, 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; GDP in 2005 dollars; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
0.1
1
10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
IOU
/IOU
1970
Plastics
Paper
Potash
Phosphate
Timber
Lead
Aluminum
Copper
Steel
1970
IOU of 9 basic commodities: US 1900-2010
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center, 2013; Johnston and Williamson, 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; GDP in 2005 dollars; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
1970
ABS of 9 basic commodities: US 1900-2010
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0
1
2
3
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
ABS
/ABS
1970
Plastics
Paper
Timber
Phosphate
Potash
Lead
Aluminum
Steel
Copper
Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
1990
Study on the use of 100 commodities in USA 1900 - 2010.
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Group 1 ABS IOU
Group 2 ABS IOU
Group 3 ABS IOU
Behavior from 1970-2010 gives us 3 distinct groups
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Data source: USGS 2013, Johnston and Williamson 2013
Group 1 (36/100)
∆ IOU < 0 &
∆ ABS < 0
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
Asbestos Iodine
Thorium Mercury
Cadmium Sodium Sulfate
Pig Iron Arsenic
Iron Ore Lithium
Clays Thallium
Fluorspar Cotton
Vermiculite Bauxite & Alumina
Iron & Steel Slag Pumice & Pumicite
Magnesium Compounds Manganese
Tin Strontium
Silicon Chromium
Iron & Steel Scrap Rare Earths
Bismuth Talc & Pyrophyllite
Zinc Antimony Soda Ash
Mica Steel
Selenium Copper
Sand & Grave (Const.)
Annual Change 1970-2010
ABS IOU
0
1
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
ABS
/ABS
1970
Chromium
Fluorspar
Pig Iron
Iron Ore
Sodium Sulfate
Cadmium
Thorium
Asbestos
ABS for 8 Group 1 Commodities: US
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center, 2013; Johnston and Williamson, 2013. Wernick & Ausubel 2014
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Boron* Water
Cropland Aluminum*
Lime Lead*
Cement Sand & Gravel (Industrial)
Beef Natural Gas
Magnesium Metal Fish
Timber Titanium Dioxide
Sulfur Zirconium Minerals
Phosphate Rock Potatoes
Salt Diatomite
Potash Vanadium* Petroleum
Graphite (Natural) Perlite
Beryllium* Feldspar Nickel*
Pork Cobalt*
Nitrogen (Ammonia) NRO
Stone (Crushed) Abrasives (Natural)
Gypsum Paper & Board
Wheat Uranium Bromine
Silver Tungsten*
Barite Coal Gold
Platinum-Group Metals* Germanium*
NRO (Oil & Gas) Molybdenum*
Titanium Metal* Hafnium* Electricity Tantalum*
Corn
Annual Change 1970-2010
ABS
IOU
Group 2 (53/100)
∆ IOU < 0 & ∆ ABS > 0
0
1
2
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
ABS/AB
S 1970
Electricity
Non-Renewable Organics
Nickel
Nitrogen
Cement
Petroleum
Beef
Water
ABS for 8 Group 2 Commodities: US
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
Group 2 Agricultural Inputs & Outputs
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1900 1935 1970 2005
ABS
/ABS
1970
Corn
Soybeans
Nitrogen
Phosphate
Cropland
Water
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
mill
ion
bush
els
Alcohol
Exports
Feed
Food*
Source: USDA Economic Research Service 2013
US uses of corn
Fed to Animals
Fed to Autos
Fed to Americans
* Includes production of high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS), glucose and dextrose, starch, alcohol for beverages and manufacturing, seed, cereals and other products
Fed abroad
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0.1
1
10
1940 1960 1980 2000
Water ABS Water IOU
US water withdrawals: Flat since ~1975
Data source: USGS 2009, Johnston and Williamson, 2013 Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0.1
1
10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
ABS
/ABS
1970
Diamond (Industrial)
Gallium*
Rhenium*
Indium*
Garnet (Industrial)
Niobium*
Chicken
Helium
ABS for 8 Group 3 Commodities: US
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
Commodities Asia
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Kilo
gram
s pe
r ca
pita
ROK Japan India China
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Aluminum use in 4 Asian nations
Data sources: USGS 2014, British Geological Survey
Petroleum use in 4 Asian nations
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Kilo
gram
s pe
r ca
pita
ROK Japan India China
Data sources: USGS 2014, British Geological Survey Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Kilo
gram
s pe
r ca
pita
Per Capita
Petroleum - USA
Data sources: USDOE Energy Information Administration 2013 Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Summary • Novel consistent measure of
– Resource demand
– Demand on nature
• 3 Groups (USA)
– 36/100 Commodities that ‘Peaked’ – 53/100 Commodities that have ‘Dematerialized’ relatively and
show signs of falling absolute consumption – 11/100 Commodities used in small quantities that improve overall
system efficiency
• Asian countries at different stages of development show similar patterns leading to eventual saturation
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Thank you for your aQenRon
Program for the Human Environment
The Rockefeller University phe.rockefeller.edu
Data Sources • British Geological Survey, World Mineral Statistics, 1950-1955, 1960-1965 1970-74, 1980-1984, 1986-1990,
• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2014) FAOSTAT. Available at http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/download/F/*/E Accessed January, 2014.
• Johnston L. and Williamson S.H. 2013. Website. Available at MeasuringWorth, URL: http://www.measuringworth.org/usgdp/ Accessed October 3, 2013
• United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2012a. Data for cropland was obtained from http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Major_Land_Uses/Summary_tables/summary_table_3_cropland_used_for_crops_19102012.xls
• USDA. 2012b. Data for Leading meat (boneless weight): total availability from http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Food_Availabily_Per_Capita_Data_System/Food_Availability/mtpcc.xls
• USDA Economic Research Service 2013, http://www.ers.usda.gov/ (accessed 2/2/14).
• USDOE Energy Information Administration. 2013. Data for Fuels and Electricity use obtained from http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/xls/stb0801.xls Data prior to 1949 from Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, Table S 45.
• USGS National Minerals Information Center. 2013. U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 140 (Supersedes Open-File Report 01-006) Historical Statistics for Mineral and Material Commodities in the United States. National Minerals Information Center. Available at: http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/#data
• USGS 2014, International Minerals Statistics and Information, http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/asia.html
• USGS 2009, Kenny, J.F., Barber, N.L., Hutson, S.S., Linsey, K.S., Lovelace, J.K., and Maupin, M.A., 2009, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2005: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1344, 52 p.
• Wernick, I.K., Herman, R., Govind, S. and Ausubel J.H. 1997. Materialization and dmaterialization: Measures and trends. Pp. 135-156 in Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, National Academy Press, Ausubel, J.H. and Langford H.D., eds. http://phe.rockefeller.edu/Daedalus/Demat/
• World Bank (2014) World Bank data. Available at http://data.worldbank.org. Accessed January, 2014.
Note: “Plastics” data in slides 7 - 10correspond to a category defined by the USGS National Minerals Information Center as Non Renewable Organics (Oil & Gas products). In Wernick et al. (1997) the IOU data for plastics begin in 1943, and represent production data only. Sources: Modern Plastics 37 (5) (1960); data on US production of plastics resin, personal communication with Joel Broyhill, statistics department, Society of the Plastics Industry, Washington, D.C., 20 August 1993. Wernick & Ausubel 2014