Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 688 Calgary Centre residents, 657 Lethbridge residents, and 681 Saint Albert-Edmonton residents by Smart IVR on October 13, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones. Calgary Centre margin of error: +/- 3.72%, Lethbridge margin of error: +/- 3.81%, Saint Albert Edmonton margin of error: +/- 3.74%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed
by age & gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
ALBERTA
October 16, 2015 (Toronto, ON) - With less than a week to go, a new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls in Alberta finds a tight race in Calgary Centre and the Conservatives ahead in Saint Albert-Edmonton and Lethbridge.
CALGARY CENTREIts down to the wire in Calgary Centre, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. This has been the highest profile race of Alberta but even so we have a found a deadlock between the Liberals and Conservatives. This is definitely a race to watch on election night.
LETHBRIDGEThe NDP had high hopes for Lethbridge, continued Maggi. Though they did very well provincially a win here is not in the cards. The Conservatives have a large lead and the NDP are out of time. There is room for the race to tighten up but likely not enough for an upset.
SAINT ALBERT-EDMONTONIn Saint Albert-Edmonton we have an interesting race with independent candidate and former Conservative MP Brent Rathgeber contesting. It looks like this will be a Conservative hold though there may be Conservatives who feel comfortable voting for Rathgeber when they get to the ballot box. Its an interesting situation and well have to wait until Election Night for the final result, he finished.
ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majority government in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last Octobers Toronto mayoral election.
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Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, 613-698-5524, [email protected]
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.
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JOAN CROCKATT (CPC)JILLIAN RATTI (NDP)KENT HEHR (LPC)THANA BOONLERTUNDECIDED
Certain33%16%32%5%14%
Likely11%28%22%10%30%
Unlikely21%15%29%11%24%
Might36%6%
24%3%
32%
JOAN CROCKATT (CPC)JILLIAN RATTI (NDP)KENT HEHR (LPC)THANA BOONLERTUNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3422%18%35%9%16%115
35-4933%19%28%2%19%162
50-6436%12%33%5%14%194
65+42%13%25%3%17%217
Female33%15%29%4%
20%356
Male29%17%34%7%13%332
CALGARY CENTRE
Crockatt Ratti Hehr Boonlert Undecided
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
All Voters Decided & Leaning
31%
16%
31%
5% 16%
37%
19%
38%
6%
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDONT KNOW
CPC81%15%5%
NDP53%43%4%
GPC79%20%1%
LPC49%38%13%
And, is there anyone you would lean towards?
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CALGARY CENTRE
Crockatt Ratti Hehr Boonlert Undecided
7%
6%
6%
1%
80%
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MICHAEL COOPER (CPC)DARLENE MALAYKO (NDP)BEATRICE GHETUBBA (LPC)ANDREA OLDHAM (GPC)BRENT RATHGEBER (IND)UNDECIDED
MICHAEL COOPER (CPC)DARLENE MALAYKO (NDP)BEATRICE GHETUBBA (LPC)ANDREA OLDHAM (GPC)BRENT RATHGEBER (IND)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
SAINT ALBERT EDMONTON
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Certain40%19%11%39%26%10%
Likely40%6%7%4%19%24%
Unlikely18%0%7%2%
28%46%
Might30%17%4%9%15%25%
18-3439%27%4%4%
30%4%115
35-4948%17%10%2%18%9%162
50-6435%13%5%2%
25%15%186
65+36%9%4%1%
28%21%218
Female42%19%4%0%24%10%364
Male38%18%4%3%
27%10%317
Cooper Malayki Ghetubba Oldham Rathgeber Undecided
All Voters Decided & Leaning
40%
18%
4% 2% 26%
10%
43%
20%
7% 2% 28%
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDONT KNOW
CPC85%13%2%
NDP89%8%3%
INDI54%42%4%
LPC64%31%5%
And, is there anyone you would lean towards?
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SAINT ALBERT-EDMONTON
8%
7%
24%
7%
9%
46%
Cooper Malayki Ghetubba Oldham Rathgeber Undecided
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RACHAEL HARDER (CPC)CHERYL MEHEDEN (NDP)MIKE PYNE (LPC)KAS MACMILLAN (GPC)UNDECIDED
Certain52%22%10%3%13%
Likely19%58%6%1%
16%
Unlikely45%19%10%0%27%
Might32%35%28%3%2%
RACHAEL HARDER (CPC)CHERYL MEHEDEN (NDP)MIKE PYNE (LPC)KAS MACMILLAN (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE
18-3455%26%6%2%10%103
35-4948%24%13%3%12%140
50-6445%23%13%5%14%209
65+58%12%10%3%16%205
Female55%23%11%1%11%336
Male47%24%10%6%14%321
LETHBRIDGE
Harder Meheden Pyne MacMillan Undecided
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
All Voters Decided & Leaning
51%
23%
10%
3% 16%
56%
26%
13%
4%
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDONT KNOW
CPC92%5%2%
NDP84%13%3%
GPC74%26%0%
LPC70%25%5%
And, is there anyone you would lean towards?
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LETHBRIDGE
Harder Meheden Pyne MacMillan Undecided
7%
6%
6%
1%
80%
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote
Might vote Unlikely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Joan Crockatt of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Jillian Ratti of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Kent Hehr of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Thana Boonlert of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Dont know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Joan Crockatt of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Jillian Ratti of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Kent Hehr of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Thana Boonlert of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
CALGARY CENTRE SCRIPT
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How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote
Might vote Unlikely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Rachael Harder of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperCheryl Meheden of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Mike Pyne of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauKas MacMillan of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Dont know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Rachael Harder of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperCheryl Meheden of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Mike Pyne of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauKas MacMillan of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
LETHBRIDGE SCRIPT
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How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote
Might vote Unlikely to vote
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Michael Cooper of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperDarlene Malayko of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Beatrice Ghettuba of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauAndrea Oldham of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Independent Candidate Brent Rathgeber Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]
Strong supporterMight change your mind
Dont know
And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]
Michael Cooper of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperDarlene Malayko of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Beatrice Ghettuba of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauAndrea Oldham of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Independent Candidate Brent Rathgeber Undecided
SAINT ALBERT-EDMONTON
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2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.