Mainstreet - Alberta Budget October 2015.pdf

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 3,199 Albertans by Smart IVR on November 1st, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of Error: +/- 1.73%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Edmonton: +/- 3.07%; Calgary +/-2.99%; Rest of Alberta :

+/-2.95%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

[2015 BUDGET POLL]

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"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

43% DISAPPROVE OF ALBERTA BUDGET

November 2, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds 43% of Albertans disapprove of the budget while one in four have not made up their mind. With 3,199 respondents the poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.73 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

While the budget doesnt have wide support several measures within it do, said David Valentin, Executive-Vice President of Mainstreet Research. There is strong support for new sin taxes and for the job creation incentive program despite warnings from Economists and the opposition that it will do little to spur employment. 71% approve of the job creation incentive program while 59% approve of increases to the cost of cigarettes and liquor.

The poll found most Albertans want to move ahead with capital spending, 55% say spending on capital projects should not be cut while 49% approve of the provinces capital spending plan.

A real strength for the government on this has been that theyve been specic about some of the projects that are included in the infrastructure plan. There has been a strong desire for a comprehensive cancer centre in Calgary as well as the ring road, and there is of course a real need for new schools that have been announced and re-announced time and time again, continued Valentin. Despite the cost Albertans are onboard with the infrastructure plan.

When looking at the provincial horserace the NDP and Wildrose are in a deadheat. The Wildrose are down 2% to 33% while the NDP are up 2% to 32%. The numbers are within the margin of error but its a bit counter-intuitive that while the NDP have delivered a tough budget that they would remain stable and trend slightly upward, continued Valentin. I think low expectations for the budget certainly played a role. Certainly it has not helped the Wildrose that the conversation has been about their opposition to 9 AM sittings rather than some of the measures in the budget.

Most Albertans, 58%, say Alberta is headed in the wrong direction. Theres not a great deal of optimism for the provincial economy. Weve seen this in many of our polls from this year. Its not a surprise to see these numbers when layos continue to be reported, nished Valentin.

ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

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LEANING AND DECIDED

ALBERTA NDPWILDROSEPROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3432%41%14%3%6%5%456

35-4935%27%19%2%3%14%612

50-6428%32%21%3%2%14%1008

65+33%32%20%2%2%11%1123

Female33%28%18%4%3%14%1767

Male31%39%18%2%4%7%

1432

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support?

ALBERTA NDPWILDROSEPROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

Edmonton52%18%11%5%6%8%1021

Rest of Alberta25%39%21%1%2%12%1105

Calgary34%31%15%4%5%10%1073

NDP Wildrose PCs Liberal UndecidedAlberta

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

All Voters Decided & Leaning

32%

33%

18%

3% 4% 11%

36%

37%

20%

3% 4%

31%

43%

26%

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LEANING AND DECIDEDFrom everything you have seen, read or heard, do you approve or disapprove of the new budget released by the Alberta government this week?

TOTAL APPROVAL: 31% TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 43% NOT SURE: 26%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

18-348%

24%10%28%29%

35-4911%16%14%34%25%

50-6414%19%12%32%23%

65+17%19%10%30%24%

Female12%21%12%30%25%

Male12%18%11%32%27%


Edmonton14%22%12%36%16%

Rest of Alberta11%20%11%

30%29%

Calgary12%17%13%31%27%

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LEANING AND DECIDEDThe new budget is forecasting a record $6.1 billion decit. The government says it needs to run a decit because of low energy prices and to avoid cutting front-line sta. But critics say its taking on too much red

ink. In your opinion is the decit too big, not big enough or the right amount?

TOO BIGNOT BIG ENOUGHTHE RIGHT AMOUNTNOT SURE

18-3437%14%24%26%

35-4941%20%19%20%

50-6435%20%27%18%

65+33%22%21%24%

Female36%20%22%22%

Male37%17%23%22%

TOO BIGNOT BIG ENOUGHTHE RIGHT AMOUNTNOT SURE

Edmonton43%17%21%19%

Rest of Alberta35%19%24%22%

Calgary37%17%22%24%

37%

18%

23%

22%

Too Big Not Big Enough Right Amount Not Sure

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LEANING AND DECIDEDThe province is going to borrow more money for capital projects, ramping up spending on project such as roads, schools and hospitals. It will spend $34 billion over the next ve years. Do you approve or disapprove of this capital spending?



18-3437%12%24%14%15%

35-4941%13%19%20%7%

50-6435%8%27%20%10%

65+33%16%21%22%8%

Female36%12%22%20%11%

Male38%12%23%17%10%


Edmonton43%9%21%17%10%

Rest of Alberta35%11%24%19%11%

Calgary37%15%22%17%9%

49%

41%

10%

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LEANING AND DECIDEDShould the government cut capital spending on roads, schools and hospitals?

YESNONOT SURE

18-3428%53%18%

35-4928%56%16%

50-6430%56%14%

65+29%59%12%

Female30%55%15%

Male28%56%17%

YESNONOT SURE

Edmonton32%52%16%


Calgary28%56%16%

29%

55%

16%

Yes No Not Sure

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LEANING AND DECIDEDStarting next year, the province will start borrowing to fund day-to-day operating spending for government programs and public-sector employee salaries. Do you approve or disapprove?



18-3436%11%19%12%22%

35-4936%11%16%19%17%

50-6433%10%19%17%21%

65+32%14%16%20%17%

Female32%12%18%18%20%

Male37%11%18%15%19%


Edmonton37%10%16%14%23%


Calgary34%13%18%15%20%

46%

35%

20%

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LEANING AND DECIDEDThe governments plan is to run four consecutive decits totaling $18 billion before getting back into a surplus in 2019-2020 due to low energy prices and to avoid cutting front-line sta and programs.

Critics say its taking on too much debt and the decits are too large. Do you approve or disapprove of the governments plan?



18-348%22%10%28%33%

35-4911%15%13%31%31%

50-6413%17%11%30%29%

65+15%18%9%28%29%

Female11%19%11%28%31%

Male11%17%11%31%30%


Edmonton13%21%10%34%21%


Calgary12%16%12%29%31%

29%

40%

31%

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LEANING AND DECIDEDThe NDP government initially promised to balance its books in 2018-19 before pushing it back a year. Should it balance the books sooner, even if it has to raise taxes or cut services?

YESNONOT SURE

18-3427%50%23%

35-4927%53%21%

50-6429%53%19%

65+27%54%19%

Female28%51%21%

Male26%52%21%

YESNONOT SURE

Edmonton31%50%19%


Calgary27%53%20%

27%

52%

21%

Yes No Not Sure

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LEANING AND DECIDEDThe budget calls for a job creation incentive program that, starting next year, will give businesses up to $5,000 for each new full-time position created by eligible employers.

The two-year program is projected to create 27,000 new jobs, but critics say it wont work. Do you approve or disapprove of the new job creation incentive program?



18-3439%23%4%25%8%

35-4953%20%6%18%3%

50-6458%16%5%13%8%

65+58%18%2%15%6%

Female50%21%5%17%7%

Male51%19%4%

20%6%


Edmonton49%19%4%19%9%


Calgary47%19%7%18%9%

71%

23%

6%

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LEANING AND DECIDEDUnder the new budget, cigarette taxes are rising by $5 a carton and liquor store markups are rising ve per cent equal to 24 cents per 12-pack or 18 cents on a bottle of wine. Do you approve or disapprove?



18-3434%20%7%

29%11%

35-4943%18%11%21%7%

50-6448%14%10%17%11%

65+47%15%8%

20%10%

Female42%18%9%21%10%

Male42%16%8%

24%9%


Edmonton42%18%8%22%11%


Calgary39%14%11%23%12%

59%

31%

10%

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LEANING AND DECIDEDThe province announced all MLAs and political sta will have their salaries frozen for the rest of the governments term. Should the government freeze wages for all public-sector employees when their

collective agreements expire or as soon as possible?

YESNONOT SURE

18-3464%15%21%

35-4974%12%14%

50-6476%9%15%

65+78%10%12%

Female72%12%16%

Male71%12%17%

YESNONOT SURE

Edmonton70%22%8%


Calgary67%11%22%

72%

12%

16%

Yes No Not Sure

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LEANING AND DECIDEDShould the government increase taxes to raise revenue and balance its books?

YESNONOT SURE

18-3437%48%15%

35-4939%54%7%

50-6447%43%10%

65+50%46%4%

Female42%48%10%

Male42%48%10%

YESNONOT SURE

Edmonton45%46%10%


Calgary39%52%9%

42%

48%

10%

Yes No Not Sure

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LEANING AND DECIDEDIs Alberta headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?

RIGHT DIRECTIONWRONG DIRECTIONNOT SURE

18-3418%57%25%

35-4921%68%11%

50-6426%56%18%

65+9%15%76%

Female22%58%20%

Male22%58%19%

RIGHT DIRECTIONWRONG DIRECTIONNOT SURE

Edmonton24%55%21%


Calgary24%56%19%

22%

58%

19%

Right Direction Wrong Direction Not Sure

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2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

Mainstreet - Alberta Budget October 2015.pdf

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