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Maine Workforce Dynamics: Challenges and Opportunities for
Education and Training Institutions
John Dorrer,Jobs for the Future
formerlyActing Commissioner
and Director of the Center for Workforce Research and Information, Maine Department of Labor
A presentation for the
Maine Futures Institute
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Overview
• From Recession to Recovery 2007-2011
• Maine’s Demographic Challenges and Implications for the Workforce
• Opportunities, Occupation and Skills Projections 2008-2018
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Unemployment Rate, Maine and U.S. Feb 2010 -2011
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Maine
U.S
Unemployment Rate
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25.7%
15.0%
9.7%
6.0% 5.4% 5.0%
7.1%
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
2009 Annual Average Unemployment Rates By Age Group, Maine
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13.0%
8.3%
6.6%
3.4%
Less than High School Diploma
High School Graduates, no College
Some College or Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree and Higher
2009 Average Unemployment Rates by EducationalAttainment among those age 25 and over, Maine
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580,000
590,000
600,000
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Payroll Jobs in Maine 2000-2011
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-7,200 -6,800 -6,400
-2,600 -2,400 -2,200 -2,200 -2,000-1,400
-800 -400
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Job Losses In Maine By Industry Sector 2008-2010
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2008-1 2008-2 2008-3 2008-4 2009-1 2009-2 2009-3 2009-4 2010-1 2010-2
New Hires, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 2008-2010 (1st and 2nd Quarter), Maine
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2008-1 2008-2 2008-3 2008-4 2009-1 2009-2 2009-3 2009-4 2010-1 2010-2
Health Care and Social Assistance Sector, New Hires in Maine 2008-2010 (1st and 2nd QTR)
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The Outlook for the Maine Economy 2010-2015
Calendar Years 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Wage & Salary Employment (Annual Percentage Change)
CEFC Forecast 02/2010 -1.3% 1.2% 2.2% 2.0%
CEFC Forecast 11/2010 -1.0% 0.4% 1.5% 2.1% 1.7% 1.0%
Economy.com 12/2010 -0.8% 0.6% 1.5% 2.6% 2.4% 1.1%
Economy.com 01/2011 -0.8% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 1.1%
Wage & Salary Income (Annual Percentage Change)
CEFC Forecast 02/2010 -0.4% 2.5% 3.9% 4.9%
CEFC Forecast 11/2010 1.8% 3.4% 5.7% 6.2% 5.5% 4.2%
Economy.com 12/2010 2.6% 4.4% 6.8% 8.4% 7.5% 5.6%
Economy.com 01/2011 2.0% 4.5% 7.5% 7.9% 7.3% 5.6%
Personal Income (Annual Percentage Change)
CEFC Forecast 02/2010 1.5% 3.0% 4.0% 4.6%
CEFC Forecast 11/2010 2.9% 3.0% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 4.5%
Economy.com 12/2010 3.3% 3.8% 6.6% 6.7% 5.1% 4.5%
Economy.com 01/2011 3.0% 4.8% 5.3% 7.0% 5.4% 4.6%
CPI (Annual Percentage Change)
CEFC Forecast 02/2010 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%
CEFC Forecast 11/2010 1.7% 1.5% 2.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2%
Economy.com 12/2010 1.6% 1.5% 2.6% 3.0% 2.5% 2.4%
Economy.com 01/2011 1.6% 1.5% 2.5% 3.2% 2.7% 2.4%
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Maine’s Future Workforce: Demographic Challenges
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Population Net Change by Age Group, 2008 to
2018
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Growth Rates for Maine Labor Force
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30
45-54
55-64
65+
2000
2010
2000
2010
Maine’s Aging Workforce in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Sector 2000 and 2010
Age
Percent
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Opportunities, Occupation and Skills Projections 2008-2018
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“A major obstacle is finding workers in Maine with the right
skills.”
Michael Dubyak, CEO of South Portland based Wright Express commenting on his plans to hire 30 to 50 new workers
in 2011
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11905
7823
7069
4238
4042
4040
3216
2473
2461
2348
2290
2135
1493
1393
1357
1260
1156
709
683
577
467
347
136
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Sales and Related
Office and Administrative Support
Transportation and Material Moving
Computer and Mathematical
Management
Business and Financial Operations
Food Preparation and Serving Related
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
Education, Training, and Library
Production
Healthcare Support
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Architecture and Engineering
Community and Social Services
Life, Physical, and Social Science
Personal Care and Service
Protective Service
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance
Construction and Extraction
Legal
Military
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Job Openings by Occupation Group Maine, July to December 2010
Source: Using Burning Glass Real-time Postings Data July-Dec.2010.
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Bachelor's Degree
High School/PostSecondary
Graduate/Professional Degree
Associate Degree
4%
13%
1%
2%
27%
16%
8%
6%
11%
5%
4%
2%
Job Openings by Education and ExperienceMaine, July to December 2010
Less than 1 Year 1 to 6 Years 6+ Years
Source: Using Burning Glass Real-time Postings Data July-Dec.2010.
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0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
CERTIFIED NURSING ASSISTANT
REGISTERED NURSE
HOME HEALTH
CASH HANDLING
ACUTE CARE
SUBSTANCE ABUSE
OCCUPATIONAL THERAPIST
BCLS CERTIFICATION
NURSE PRACTITIONER
BUILDING MAINTENANCE
BASIC COMPUTER SKILLS
HOME CARE
LIBERAL ARTS
FAMILY MEDICINE
FORKLIFT CERTIFICATION
ALLIED HEALTH
PHYSICIAN ASSISTANT
DIRECT CARE
COMPUTER LITERACY
PUBLIC SAFETY
COMPUTER SOFTWARE
CIVIL SERVICE
CLINICAL NURSE
HEALTH CARE PROVIDER
COMMUNITY HEALTH
Certificates in DemandMaine, July to December 2010
Source: Using Burning Glass Real-time Postings Data July-Dec.2010.
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Comparison of Claimants and Job Postings by Major Occupational Group
Claimants Job Postings
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Fastest Growing Occupations Requiring Bachelors Degree or Higher 2008-2018, US
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Job Growth by Occupational Group,
2008 to 2018
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Job Outlook by Industry Sectors
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Non-STEM, 589,090
STEM,50,990
2009 Estimated Total Employment
The number of people working
in STEM occupations
represents 8% of those employed and is growing.
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In Maine STEM
occupations
are growing at
a faster rate
than all other occupations.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Non-STEM STEM
Percent %
Maine Employment Growth Rate
2008-2018
Science, Technology, Engineering, and
Mathematics
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2008-2018 Job Growth By Wage Group
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Job Growth by Education or Training Requirements,
2008 to 2018
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Alternative Occupational ProjectionsMaine Jobs By Educational Level 2018Georgetown University, Center for Education and the Workforce
• Associates Degree = 136,000
• Bachelors Degree = 128,000
• Graduate Degree = 58,000
• By 2018, 59% of jobs in Maine will require post secondary education
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Implement solutions, evaluate
effectiveness and improve further
Convene stakeholders across “silos” to
diagnose leaks, design systemic solutions
Assess effectiveness of existing solutions;
identify “leakage points”, gaps
Work with employers to identify requirements for family-sustaining jobs
Feedback Loop
(continuous monitoring)
Improved Education/Workforce Outcomes
Local Leadership
for Improved Outcomes
36SOURCE: Center for Community College Research at Columbia University: 2010
A MODEL FOR DEVELOPING A LOCAL IMPROVEMENT PROCESS