OCTOBER 27 th , 2014 MEMORANDUM TO: REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS ASSOCIATION FROM: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: MAINE GOVERNOR SURVEY SUMMARY ________________________________________________________________________ This memorandum is a summary of an automated survey of 869 likely voters in Maine. The survey was fielded October 23 rd and 24 th and has a margin of error of +/- 3.32% at the 95% confidence level. Survey Findings The survey finds Republican Governor Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud in a statistical tie with one week to go before Election Day. Among all voters, Paul LePage has 42.3% support; Mike Michaud has 41.6%, and independent candidate Eliot Cutler has 13.2% support. Among all male voters Paul LePage leads Mike Michaud by 3 points, 43% to 40% respectively, and among all female voters Mike Michaud leads by 1 point, 43% to 42% respectively. Independent Eliot Cutler’s strongest base of support is among married men and independent voters, with 16%. The image ratings of both Paul LePage and Mike Michaud are very similar. Among all voters, 47% have a favorable opinion of Mike Michaud and 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Paul LePage 48% of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him. The following table shows the ballot test by voter subgroup. US Senate Ballot Test by Voter Subgroup All Voters All Men Mar. Men Sing. Men All Wom Mar. Wom. Sing. Wom. All Rep All Dem All Ind LePage Net +0.7 +2.6 +7.7 -16.5 -1.0 +4.9 -7.6 +63.9 +56.8 -1.3 LePage 42.3% 43.0% 44.8% 34.6% 41.7% 44.9% 37.7% 75.6% 14.0% 39.1% Michaud 41.6% 40.4% 37.1% 51.1% 42.7% 40.0% 45.3% 11.7% 70.8% 40.4% Cutler 13.2% 14.2% 16.1% 10.5% 12.2% 12.3% 12.5% 10.8% 12.4% 16.4% Other 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.5% 0.5% 1.2% 1.9% Undecided 1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 3.2% 1.8% 1.0% 3.0% 1.4% 1.6% 2.2% Survey Commissioned By The Republican Governor’s Association commissioned this survey.
Maine Governor Survey Release 102714
Jun 15, 2015
This memorandum is a summary of an automated survey of 869 likely voters in Maine. The survey was fielded October 23rd and 24th and has a margin of error of +/- 3.32% at the 95% confidence level.
The survey finds Republican Governor Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud in a statistical tie with one week to go before Election Day. Among all voters, Paul LePage has 42.3% support; Mike Michaud has 41.6%, and independent candidate Eliot Cutler has 13.2% support. Among all male voters Paul LePage leads Mike Michaud by 3 points, 43% to 40% respectively, and among all female voters Mike Michaud leads by 1 point, 43% to 42% respectively. Independent Eliot Cutler’s strongest base of support is among married men and independent voters, with 16%.
The image ratings of both Paul LePage and Mike Michaud are very similar. Among all voters, 47% have a favorable opinion of Mike Michaud and 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Paul LePage 48% of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him. The following table shows the ballot test by voter subgroup.
The survey finds Republican Governor Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud in a statistical tie with one week to go before Election Day. Among all voters, Paul LePage has 42.3% support; Mike Michaud has 41.6%, and independent candidate Eliot Cutler has 13.2% support. Among all male voters Paul LePage leads Mike Michaud by 3 points, 43% to 40% respectively, and among all female voters Mike Michaud leads by 1 point, 43% to 42% respectively. Independent Eliot Cutler’s strongest base of support is among married men and independent voters, with 16%.
The image ratings of both Paul LePage and Mike Michaud are very similar. Among all voters, 47% have a favorable opinion of Mike Michaud and 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Paul LePage 48% of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him. The following table shows the ballot test by voter subgroup.
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!OCTOBER 27th, 2014 MEMORANDUM TO: REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS ASSOCIATION FROM: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: MAINE GOVERNOR SURVEY SUMMARY ________________________________________________________________________ This memorandum is a summary of an automated survey of 869 likely voters in Maine. The survey was fielded October 23rd and 24th and has a margin of error of +/- 3.32% at the 95% confidence level. Survey Findings The survey finds Republican Governor Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud in a statistical tie with one week to go before Election Day. Among all voters, Paul LePage has 42.3% support; Mike Michaud has 41.6%, and independent candidate Eliot Cutler has 13.2% support. Among all male voters Paul LePage leads Mike Michaud by 3 points, 43% to 40% respectively, and among all female voters Mike Michaud leads by 1 point, 43% to 42% respectively. Independent Eliot Cutler’s strongest base of support is among married men and independent voters, with 16%. The image ratings of both Paul LePage and Mike Michaud are very similar. Among all voters, 47% have a favorable opinion of Mike Michaud and 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Paul LePage 48% of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him. The following table shows the ballot test by voter subgroup.
US Senate Ballot Test by Voter Subgroup All
Voters All
Men Mar. Men
Sing. Men
All Wom
Mar. Wom.
Sing. Wom.
All Rep
All Dem
All Ind
LePage Net +0.7 +2.6 +7.7 -16.5 -1.0 +4.9 -7.6 +63.9 +56.8 -1.3 LePage 42.3% 43.0% 44.8% 34.6% 41.7% 44.9% 37.7% 75.6% 14.0% 39.1% Michaud 41.6% 40.4% 37.1% 51.1% 42.7% 40.0% 45.3% 11.7% 70.8% 40.4% Cutler 13.2% 14.2% 16.1% 10.5% 12.2% 12.3% 12.5% 10.8% 12.4% 16.4% Other 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.5% 0.5% 1.2% 1.9% Undecided 1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 3.2% 1.8% 1.0% 3.0% 1.4% 1.6% 2.2%
Survey Commissioned By The Republican Governor’s Association commissioned this survey.
Magellan Strategies Maine Governor Survey Summary 869n, MoE +/- 3.32%, October 23rd – 24th, 2014
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585
2
Survey Methodology This survey was conducted using automated voice recorded technology. The sample for this survey was randomly drawn from a Maine voter file. The results were weighted based upon past voter demographics of the non-Presidential voting population in Maine. Any questions regarding the methodology of this survey should be directed to David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at [email protected] or 303-861-8585. The survey toplines and crosstabs are included in this document.
!!!!!Maine General Election Survey Topline Results Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for an 869n autodial survey of likely general election voters in the state of Maine. The interviews were conducted October 23rd and 24th, 2014. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.32% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon past general election voting demographics. T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or are you not registered to vote? Democrat ................................................................ 35% Republican .............................................................. 33% Independent ............................................................ 32%
T2. How likely are you to vote in the upcoming November general election? Extremely likely ....................................................... 94% Very likely ................................................................. 5% Somewhat likely ........................................................ 1%
T3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Michaud? Favorable ................................................................ 47% Unfavorable ............................................................ 46% Heard of, No Opinion ............................................... 7% Never Heard of ......................................................... 0% Name ID ............................................................... 100% Hard Name ID ........................................................ 93%
Magellan ID#: MEGEN-102314 Maine General Election Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 10/23/14 – 10/24/14, MoE +/- 3.32%, 869n, CONFIDENTIAL
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
2
T4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Paul LePage? Favorable ................................................................ 48% Unfavorable ............................................................ 47% Heard of, No Opinion ............................................... 5% Never Heard of ......................................................... 0% Name ID ............................................................... 100% Hard Name ID ........................................................ 95%
T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Eliot Cutler? Favorable ................................................................ 36% Unfavorable ............................................................ 47% Heard of, No Opinion ............................................. 16% Never Heard of ......................................................... 1% Name ID ................................................................. 99% Hard Name ID ........................................................ 83%
T6. If the election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Mike Michaud, Democrat, Paul LePage, Republican, and Eliot Cutler, Independent? Paul LePage ............................................................ 42% Mike Michaud ......................................................... 42% Eliot Cutler .............................................................. 13% Other Candidate ....................................................... 1% Undecided ................................................................ 2%
T7. Do you consider yourself to be conservative, moderate or liberal in your political beliefs? Conservative ........................................................... 35% Moderate ................................................................ 45% Liberal ..................................................................... 17% Unsure or No Opinion .............................................. 3%
T8. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? Woman ................................................................... 52% Man ........................................................................ 48%
Magellan ID#: MEGEN-102314 Maine General Election Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 10/23/14 – 10/24/14, MoE +/- 3.32%, 869n, CONFIDENTIAL
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
3
T9. Which of the following age groups applies to you? 18-29 ........................................................................ 7% 30-44 ...................................................................... 17% 45-54 ...................................................................... 21% 55-64 ...................................................................... 24% 65+ ......................................................................... 31% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 0%
T10. What is your marital status? Married ................................................................... 63% Widowed ................................................................ 13% Single, never been married ........................................ 8% Divorced ................................................................... 8% Unmarried living with partner ................................... 3% Separated .................................................................. 2% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 3%
Survey Methodology This survey was conducted using automated telephone touchtone technology. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a Maine voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon past general election voting demographics. The interviews were conducted on October 23rd and 24th, 2014. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 3.32% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
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91.7
261
90.9
133
95.0
128
87.0
297
97.6
116
98.0
180
97.3
246
88.5
159
94.9
88
79.0
Mai
ne G
ener
al E
lect
ion
Sur
vey,
Oct
ober
23r
d - 2
4th,
201
4, 8
69N
, 3.3
2% M
oE, W
eigh
ted
Res
ults
, Mag
ella
n S
trate
gies
, 168
5 B
oxel
der S
t. S
uite
300
, Lou
isvi
lle, C
O 8
0027
, 303
-861
-858
5 Ta
ble
5-1
T4. D
o yo
u ha
ve a
favo
rabl
e or
unf
avor
able
opi
nion
of P
aul L
ePag
e?
GE
ND
ER
~MA
RIT
AL
A
GE
R
EP
UB
LIC
AN
S
DE
MO
CR
ATS
IN
DE
PE
ND
EN
TS
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TAL
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0
278
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0
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0 FA
VO
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BLE
421
48.4
217
51.0
154
52.5
52
43.9
203
45.9
123
47.6
78
44.2
41
66.6
88
59.2
94
51.4
82
39.3
113
42.5
234
81.5
120
86.0
113
77.3
53
17.3
19
15.7
34
18.3
134
48.3
78
46.9
56
50.5
U
NFA
VO
RA
BLE
409
47.1
189
44.3
132
44.9
54
45.6
220
49.7
128
49.4
88
49.6
17
27.5
58
39.5
81
44.1
116
55.7
137
51.8
46
15.9
20
14.0
26
17.7
234
77.0
88
74.2
146
78.7
129
46.5
81
48.4
48
43.7
H
EA
RD
OF
NO
OP
INIO
N
37
4.3
20
4.6
8 2.
6
12
10.1
18
4.0
6 2.
4
11
6.2
4 5.
9
2 1.
3
8 4.
5
10
4.6
14
5.3
6 2.
2
6
4.3
17
5.4
12
9.7
5 2.
7
14
5.2
8 4.
8
6 5.
9 N
EV
ER
HE
AR
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F
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2
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1
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3
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5
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5
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3
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3
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4
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3
NA
ME
ID
86
7 99
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425
99.9
293
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0
117
99.6
442
99.7
258
99.5
177
100.
0
61
100.
0
148
100.
0
182
100.
0
208
99.5
264
99.7
286
99.7
140
100.
0
146
99.4
303
99.7
118
99.6
185
99.7
278
100.
0
167
100.
0
111
100.
0 H
AR
D N
AM
E ID
830
95.5
406
95.3
285
97.4
105
89.5
424
95.6
251
97.0
166
93.8
57
94.1
146
98.7
174
95.5
198
94.9
250
94.4
279
97.4
140
100.
0
139
95.0
287
94.2
107
89.9
180
97.0
264
94.8
159
95.2
104
94.1
Mai
ne G
ener
al E
lect
ion
Sur
vey,
Oct
ober
23r
d - 2
4th,
201
4, 8
69N
, 3.3
2% M
oE, W
eigh
ted
Res
ults
, Mag
ella
n S
trate
gies
, 168
5 B
oxel
der S
t. S
uite
300
, Lou
isvi
lle, C
O 8
0027
, 303
-861
-858
5 Ta
ble
6-1
T5. D
o yo
u ha
ve a
favo
rabl
e or
unf
avor
able
opi
nion
of E
liot C
utle
r?
GE
ND
ER
~MA
RIT
AL
A
GE
R
EP
UB
LIC
AN
S
DE
MO
CR
ATS
IN
DE
PE
ND
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TS
----
----
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TO
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EN
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EN
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G
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G
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S
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869
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0
185
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278
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0
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100.
0
111
100.
0 FA
VO
RA
BLE
311
35.8
160
37.7
115
39.4
43
36.5
151
34.0
86
33.2
65
36.5
16
25.8
52
35.1
77
42.1
79
38.1
86
32.4
97
33.7
47
33.3
50
34.1
104
34.2
39
32.5
66
35.3
111
39.7
75
45.0
35
31.8
U
NFA
VO
RA
BLE
407
46.9
196
46.0
130
44.3
57
48.9
211
47.7
129
49.7
79
44.3
42
69.0
76
51.4
67
36.8
103
49.3
117
44.1
142
49.6
70
50.0
72
49.3
155
51.1
61
51.6
94
50.8
109
39.3
65
38.6
45
40.5
H
EA
RD
OF
NO
OP
INIO
N
141
16.3
65
15.2
45
15.3
15
12.8
77
17.3
41
15.9
33
18.6
20
13
.5
37
20.3
25
12.1
59
22.3
45
15.8
22
15.7
23
15.8
42
13.9
16
13.9
26
13.9
54
19.4
26
15.7
28
24.9
N
EV
ER
HE
AR
D O
F
9 1.
1
5 1.
2
3 1.
0
2 1.
8
4 1.
0
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2
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7
3 5.
2
1
0.8
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5
3 1.
2
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9
1 1.
0
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8
2 0.
8
2 2.
0
4
1.6
1 0.
7
3 2.
8
N
AM
E ID
860
98.9
421
98.8
290
99.0
115
98.2
439
99.0
256
98.8
176
99.3
58
94.8
148
100.
0
181
99.2
207
99.5
262
98.8
284
99.1
139
99.0
146
99.2
302
99.2
116
98.0
185
100.
0
274
98.4
166
99.3
108
97.2
H
AR
D N
AM
E ID
718
82.7
356
83.6
245
83.7
100
85.4
362
81.8
215
82.9
143
80.8
58
94.8
128
86.5
144
78.9
182
87.4
203
76.5
239
83.3
117
83.3
122
83.3
260
85.3
100
84.1
160
86.1
220
79.1
140
83.6
80
72.3
Mai
ne G
ener
al E
lect
ion
Sur
vey,
Oct
ober
23r
d - 2
4th,
201
4, 8
69N
, 3.3
2% M
oE, W
eigh
ted
Res
ults
, Mag
ella
n S
trate
gies
, 168
5 B
oxel
der S
t. S
uite
300
, Lou
isvi
lle, C
O 8
0027
, 303
-861
-858
5 Ta
ble
7-1
T6. I
f the
ele
ctio
n fo
r Gov
erno
r wer
e be
ing
held
toda
y, fo
r who
m w
ould
you
vot
e if
the
cand
idat
es w
ere
Mik
e M
icha
ud, D
emoc
rat,
Pau
l LeP
age,
Rep
ublic
an, a
nd E
liot C
utle
r, In
depe
nden
t?
GE
ND
ER
~MA
RIT
AL
A
GE
R
EP
UB
LIC
AN
S
DE
MO
CR
ATS
IN
DE
PE
ND
EN
TS
----
----
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EN
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EN
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G
ME
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869
100.
0
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0
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0
118
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0
259
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0
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100.
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100.
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209
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265
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100.
0
140
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0
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0
304
100.
0
119
100.
0
185
100.
0
278
100.
0
167
100.
0
111
100.
0 P
AU
L LE
PA
GE
368
42.3
183
43.0
131
44.8
41
34.6
185
41.6
116
44.8
67
37.7
33
53.8
68
46.4
82
45.0
78
37.3
103
38.9
217
75.6
108
77.3
109
74.0
42
13.9
12
10.2
30
16.3
109
39.1
63
37.6
46
41.3
M
IKE
MIC
HA
UD
361
41.6
172
40.4
109
37.1
60
51.1
189
42.7
104
40.1
80
45.3
21
35.1
61
41.1
67
36.5
93
44.4
120
45.3
33
11.7
14
10.3
19
13.0
215
70.8
86
72.4
130
69.8
112
40.4
72
42.9
41
36.7
E
LIO
T C
UTL
ER
115
13.2
61
14.2
47
16.2
12
10.5
54
12.2
32
12.3
22
12.5
4 5.
9
17
11.3
34
18.5
30
14.2
31
11.8
31
10.9
16
11.7
15
10.0
38
12.5
16
13.6
22
11.7
46
16.5
28
16.8
18
15.9
O
THE
R
10
1.
2
3 0.
7
2 0.
8
1 0.
6
7 1.
6
5 1.
8
3 1.
5
3 5.
2
2 0.
9
4 1.
7
2 0.
5
1 0.
7
0.
3
4 1.
2
1 0.
6
3 1.
6
5 1.
8
1 0.
7
4 3.
5 U
ND
EC
IDE
D
15
1.
7
7 1.
7
3 1.
2
4 3.
2
8 1.
8
2 1.
0
5 3.
0
2
1.3
7
3.3
6 2.
4
4 1.
3
4
2.6
5 1.
6
4 3.
2
1 0.
6
6 2.
2
3 2.
0
3 2.
6
Mai
ne G
ener
al E
lect
ion
Sur
vey,
Oct
ober
23r
d - 2
4th,
201
4, 8
69N
, 3.3
2% M
oE, W
eigh
ted
Res
ults
, Mag
ella
n S
trate
gies
, 168
5 B
oxel
der S
t. S
uite
300
, Lou
isvi
lle, C
O 8
0027
, 303
-861
-858
5 Ta
ble
8-1
T7. D
o yo
u co
nsid
er y
ours
elf t
o be
con
serv
ativ
e, m
oder
ate
or li
bera
l in
your
pol
itica
l bel
iefs
?
G
EN
DE
R~M
AR
ITA
L
AG
E
RE
PU
BLI
CA
NS
D
EM
OC
RA
TS
IND
EP
EN
DE
NTS
--
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
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---
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L
----
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EN
-
----
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RR
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EN
----
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G
ME
N
--
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---
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OM
-
----
----
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RR
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OM
----
----
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G
WO
M
--
----
---
18
-29
---
----
--
30
-44
--
----
--
45
-54
--
----
---
55
-64
---
----
--
65
PLU
S
--
----
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P
TOT
--
----
---
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P
ME
N
--
----
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P
WO
M
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----
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M
TOT
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M
ME
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--
----
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M
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M
--
----
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T -
----
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M
EN
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OM
----
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L
869
100.
0
426
100.
0
293
100.
0
118
100.
0
443
100.
0
259
100.
0
177
100.
0
61
100.
0
148
100.
0
182
100.
0
209
100.
0
265
100.
0
287
100.
0
140
100.
0
147
100.
0
304
100.
0
119
100.
0
185
100.
0
278
100.
0
167
100.
0
111
100.
0 C
ON
SE
RV
ATI
VE
307
35.4
167
39.2
116
39.5
44
37.7
140
31.6
80
30.9
60
33.9
26
43.1
57
38.9
66
36.1
67
32.1
91
34.2
166
57.8
90
64.4
76
51.6
45
14.7
17
14.3
28
14.9
97
34.8
60
35.9
37
33.2
M
OD
ER
ATE
392
45.1
203
47.6
142
48.3
54
45.7
189
42.6
119
45.8
65
36.7
7 10
.9
72
48.4
87
47.5
109
52.1
115
43.2
106
37.0
46
32.8
60
40.9
154
50.6
73
61.5
81
43.6
132
47.4
84
50.1
48
43.4
LI
BE
RA
L
142
16.3
49
11.5
31
10.6
17
14.4
93
21.0
52
20.2
40
22.6
19
31.2
19
12.7
30
16.3
30
14.5
44
16.7
10
3.4
3 2.
4
6 4.
4
97
31.9
25
20.8
72
39.0
35
12.7
21
12.4
14
13.0
U
NS
UR
E
NO
OP
INIO
N
28
3.2
7 1.
7
5 1.
6
3 2.
3
21
4.7
8 3.
2
12
6.8
9 14
.8
3 1.
3
15
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5 1.
8
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4
5 3.
1
9 2.
9
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5
5 2.
5
14
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3 1.
5
12
10.4
Mai
ne G
ener
al E
lect
ion
Sur
vey,
Oct
ober
23r
d - 2
4th,
201
4, 8
69N
, 3.3
2% M
oE, W
eigh
ted
Res
ults
, Mag
ella
n S
trate
gies
, 168
5 B
oxel
der S
t. S
uite
300
, Lou
isvi
lle, C
O 8
0027
, 303
-861
-858
5 Ta
ble
9-1
T8. A
re y
ou a
man
or a
wom
an?
GE
ND
ER
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RIT
AL
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R
EP
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AN
S
DE
MO
CR
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DE
PE
ND
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TS
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37
60.8
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43.9
88
48.2
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48.8
149
56.2
147
51.2
14
7 10
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185
61.0
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0
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0
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0
11
9 39
.0
119
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0
16
7 60
.1
167
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0
Mai
ne G
ener
al E
lect
ion
Sur
vey,
Oct
ober
23r
d - 2
4th,
201
4, 8
69N
, 3.3
2% M
oE, W
eigh
ted
Res
ults
, Mag
ella
n S
trate
gies
, 168
5 B
oxel
der S
t. S
uite
300
, Lou
isvi
lle, C
O 8
0027
, 303
-861
-858
5 Ta
ble
10-1
T9
. Whi
ch o
f the
follo
win
g ag
e gr
oups
app
lies
to y
ou?
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ND
ER
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AL
A
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S
DE
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DE
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22
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36
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55
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38
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15.8
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18
2 21
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73
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20
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0
69
24.1
28
19.9
41
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60
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39
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14
12.9
55
-64
20
9 24
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81
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24
20.7
102
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61
23.7
36
20.3
20
9 10
0.0
62
21
.5
34
24.4
28
18.7
75
24.7
34
28.3
42
22.4
72
25.8
39
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33
29.4
65
+
265
30.5
116
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84
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100.
0
86
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38
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26.2
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NS
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E
NO
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INIO
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4 0.
5
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4
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5
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5
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3
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3
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4
1
1.0
Mai
ne G
ener
al E
lect
ion
Sur
vey,
Oct
ober
23r
d - 2
4th,
201
4, 8
69N
, 3.3
2% M
oE, W
eigh
ted
Res
ults
, Mag
ella
n S
trate
gies
, 168
5 B
oxel
der S
t. S
uite
300
, Lou
isvi
lle, C
O 8
0027
, 303
-861
-858
5 Ta
ble
11-1
T1
0. W
hat i
s yo
ur m
arita
l sta
tus?
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EN
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