MAIN RESULTS OF SPACE MONITORING OF VEGETATION COVER … · june july august september 1 decade 2 decade 3 decade Dynamic of ten-days VCI values, 2010 VCI-maps allow visualization

MAIN RESULTS OF SPACE MONITORING OF

VEGETATION COVER ON THE TERRITORY OF

KAZAKHSTAN FOR THE PERIOD 2000-2015

Batyrbayeva Madina, Muratova Nadia, Spivak Lev (1), Irina Vitkovskaya

JSC "National Center for Space Research and Technology", Kazakhstan

1 International University of Nature, Society and Man "Dubna", Russia

IAAE Inter-Conference Symposium Agricultural Transitions along the Silk Road

Restructuring, Resources and Trade

in the Central Asia Region

4 - 6 April 2016 | Almaty, Kazakhstan

- operational monitoring, including mapping the current

state of crops and natural vegetation, early recognition

of drought and areas under dry conditions;

- analysis of seasonal dynamics of vegetation and

assessment of damage from drought;

- analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of

vegetation development for a multiyear period; drought

risk assessment

THE SYSTEM OF SPACE MONITORING OF VEGETATION COVER

(state and changes) BY LONG-TERM SERIES OF VEGETATION

INDEXES

Time series of vegetation indexes calculated from satellite data of low resolution

were used to characterize and describe the state of vegetation and its variations in

Kazakhstan for the growing season (April-September) of the period 2000-2015

Indicators of drought conditions based on NDVI-distribution

A2

A1 A3

B2

А4

B1

C

0

0,1

0,3

0,4

0,2

(Jiaguo Qi, Phil Heilman, Haiyan

Remote sensing methods for land

degradation)

A1 - the date of the beginning of the

growing season

A2 - the date of NDVI max

A3 - the date of the end of the

growing season

A4 - the duration of the growing

season

B1 - the value of NDVI max

B2 - integral vegetation index IVI

B3 - a deviation of IVI from IVI min

0-20% - amount of green biomass is

close to multi-year minimum;

21-40% - amount of green biomass

below the long-term average (normal);


close to the long-term average

(normal);

61-80% - amount of green biomass

above the long-term average (normal);


close to multi-year maximum.

Seasonal dynamics of NDVI, Akmola

oblast, 2012

max

2012

-0,10

-0,05

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

1d_a

pr

2d_a

pr

3d_a

pr

1d_m

ay

2d_m

ay

3d_m

ay

1d_j

une

2d_j

une

3d_j

une

1d_j

uly

2d_j

uly

3d_j

uly

1d_a

vg

2d_a

vg

3d_a

vg

1d_s

ept

2d_s

ept

3d_s

ept

декада

ND

VI

min max средн.многолетнее 2012

May, 2 ten-days min mean

Ideology of VCI-index

VCI = 100 (NDVImax – NDVI) /

(NDVImax –NDVImin)

0

VCI, %

20 40 60 80 100

may

june

july

august

september

1 decade 3 decade 2 decade

Dynamic of ten-days VCI values, 2010

VCI-maps allow visualization of the location and development of the sites of depression of vegetation

0

VCI, %

20 40 60 80 100

1 decade 3 decade 2 decade

may

june

july

august

september

Dynamic of ten-days VCI values, 2012

Digital matrix of IVCI allow visualization of the location of the sites of depression vegetation

Dynamic of integral vegetation condition index IVCI values on Kazakhstan

for 2000-2015

THE ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC OF

VEGETATION COVER OF KAZAKHSTAN

BY LONG SERIES OF SATELLITE

INDICES

DROUGHT DETECTION

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

год

ко

эф

фи

ци

ен

т л

ин

ей

но

го

тр

ен

да

Алматинская

ЮКО

Жамбылская

Кызылординская

Карагандинская

Акмолинская

СКО

Костанайская

ВКО

Павлодарская

Актюбинская

ЗКО

Мангыстауская

Атырауская

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

год

ко

эф

фи

ци

ен

т л

ин

ей

но

го

тр

ен

да


ЮКО





СКО


ВКО



ЗКО




ЮКО





СКО


ВКО



ЗКО



There is decrease of IVI index

values (the total amount of green

biomass in growing season) and

IVCI (characteristic of influence

of weather on vegetation)

Coefficient values in the

equations of the line trend show

the rate of decrease of IVCI

Tendencies of long-term changes of the integral index of the growing season for the regions

of Kazakhstan

Zoning of the Kazakhstan territory by the

values of the coefficients in linear trend

equations of long-term changes of IVCI

(scale of oblasts) Значения коэффициента в уравнении линейного

тренда распределения IVCI (2002-2012)

-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07

Значения коэффициента в уравнении линейного


-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07

The values of the coefficient in the equation of

the linear trend of IVСI-distribution

coef

fici

ent o

f li

nea

r tr

end

of

IVС

I

Zoning of the North Kazakhstan oblasts by the values of the coefficients in

linear trend equations of long-term changes of IVCI (scale of districts)



-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07



-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07

The values of the coefficient in the equation of

the linear trend of IVСI-distribution

There is a positive trend of increasing of zones areas with

IVCI <30%, which characterizes the growing impact of

drought conditions on vegetation productivity in Kazakhstan

The areas of Kazakhstan’s oblasts with values IVCI <30%

(IVCI <30% - drought, close to multiyear minimum)

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0о

тно

си

тел

ьн

ая

пл

ощ

ад

ь у

частк

ов

с I

VC

I<0,3

, %

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Акмолинская Костанайская СКО Карагандинская Актюбинская ЗКО

are

a w

ith

lo

w v

alu

es I

VC

I/a

rea

of

ob

last

, %

1

2

3

4

Zoning on the base of frequency of droughts

(IVCI values <30%) during 2000-2015 years

100%

1 3 5 971 3 5 97 11 13

Частота появления низких значений IVCI (0-30%)

1 3 5 971 3 5 97 11 13

Частота появления низких значений IVCI (0-30%)The frequency of low values of the IVCI-index

Factors, that should be considered for monitoring and

prediction of drought :

- conditions of the previous growing season (a priori

estimate, map the frequency of droughts)

- snowmelt regime (snow melt dates; areas, freed from the snow)

- phase of the solar cycle

The duration of drought describes the continuous time interval during which the drought was

recorded at the site. Duration of drought conditions conveniently determined by NDVI-curve.

The intensity of drought characterizes the degree of its impact on the productivity of plant

biomass.

Evaluation of season changes in productivity of vegetation

on the territory of Kazakhstan

Zones of different vegetation productivity

0 – 0.1

0.1 – 0.2

0.2 – 0.3

0.3 – 0.4

> 0.4

IVI / IVImax

2008 2002

Areas of zones of different vegetation productivity on the Kazakhstan territory

(defined by the IVInorm values, 2000-2015)

2002

2004

2002

2004y = 0,122x + 19,074

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

пл

ощ

ад

ь з

он

ы/ п

ло

щад

ь Р

К, %

0,2-0,3

y = -0,6006x + 20,791

y = -1,5549x + 31,457

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

пл

ощ

ад

ь з

он

ы/ п

ло

щад

ь Р

К, %

0,3-0,4 0,4-1

The average zone is shifted

to south (460 - 490 N) for all

the wet years, and to the

north (47030‘- 540 N) - for

all the dry years

y = 1,3999x + 11,98

y = 0,633x + 16,69

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

пл

ощ

ад

ь з

он

ы/ п

ло

ща

дь

РК

, %

0-0,1 0,1-0,2

wet

droughty

Location of zone with IVInorm (0,2-0,3) in the

territory of Kazakhstan for various weather conditions z

on

e a

rea

/RK

are

a,%

zo

ne

are

a/R

K a

rea

,%

zo

ne

are

a/R

K a

rea,%

ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN THE

STATE OF NATURAL AND CULTIVATED

VEGETATION IN STEPPE ZONE OF

KAZAKHSTAN

2004

2005

2006

2007

0 0,1 0,3 IVInorm 0,4 0,2

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Steppe zone of Kazakhstan 45E

56N

45E

40N

88E

56N

88E

40N Zoning of steppe zone of Kazakhstan by

vegetation productivity

48N

53N 2012

Areas with low values IVCI (less 0,3) located in the steppe zone of Kazakhstan

1 - forested steppe

2 - moderately arid steppes

3 - arid steppe

4 - moderately dry steppes

5 - dry steppe

6 - desert steppes

7 - northern desert

Subzones of steppe region of

Kazakhstan within the limits of the

transect:

transect

1

2

4

3

5

6

7

Seasonal dynamics of NDVI for areas with natural vegetation

Опустыненные степи, полигон 7

-0,15

-0,1

-0,05

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

1d

_fe

v

3d

_fe

v

2d

_m

art

1d

_a

pr

3d

_a

pr

2d

_m

ay

1d

_ju

ne

3d

_ju

ne

2d

_ju

ly

1d

_a

vg

3d

_a

vg

2d

_s

ep

t

1d

_o

ct

3d

_o

ct

2d

_n

ov

nd

vi

2004

2006

2008

2009

2010

2012

Опустыненные степи, полигон 7

-0,1

-0,05

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

1d

_fe

v

3d

_fe

v

2d

_m

art

1d

_a

pr

3d

_a

pr

2d

_m

ay

1d

_ju

ne

3d

_ju

ne

2d

_ju

ly

1d

_a

vg

3d

_a

vg

2d

_s

ep

t

1d

_o

ct

3d

_o

ct

2d

_n

ov

nd

vi 2001

2002

2006

NDVI dynamics for dry vegetation seasons Distributions of NDVI for different vegetation

seasons

16 6

14 11

15 10

16 9

18 4

14 9

16 3

14 12

16 7

16 4

15 7

15 2

5 10 15 20 25 30

длительность, количество декад

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

год

Moderately-

arid steppe

13 4

13 4

13 5

14 4

14 4

14 1

5 10 15 20 25 30

длительность, количество декад

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

год

Dry steppe

The duration of the period when passing through the value of NDVI = 0,3 (one of

the characteristics of the adverse conditions of the season)

Desert steppes Desert steppes

ND

VI

ND

VI

duration, number of decades duration, number of decades

yea

r

yea

r

Establishing of the relationship between yield of crops and remote sensing data

Akmola oblast Kostanai oblast

Denisovskii

Tselinograd Atbasar

Esil`

Kamisti

Initial data Remote sensing data ( VCI):

1) 1982-2010 (resolution of 16x16

km, 7-day composites);

2) 2000-2010 (resolution 1x1 km;

10-day composites);

3) Masks of cultivated land (2005;

2010)

Statistical data

(1982-2010).

1) crop yields;

2) acreage

Dependencies “Yield - Vegetation index

VCI" (data NOAA NESDIS, Tselinograd

district, Akmola oblast)

Целиноград 1982-1992

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

урожайность, ц/га

VC

I

Y = 0.0475x –

0.1693

R2 = 0.8483

Целиноград, 1982-2010

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20


VC

I

1982-2010

1982-1992

2000-2010

Целиноград, 2000-2010

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0 2 4 6 8 10 12


VC

I

Y = 0.0749x –

0.1987

R2 = 0.7965

1982-1992

1982-2010

2000-2010

Yield, c/ha

Yield, c/ha

Yield, c/ha

VC

I

VC

I

1982-2010

1982-1992

2000-2010

Spivak Lev, Professor, International

University of Nature, Society and

Man "Dubna", Russia

[email protected]

Vitkovskaya Irina,

Scientist Researcher, Ph.D. National

Center of Space Research and

Technologies, Kazakhstan,

[email protected]

Batyrbaeva Madina, Scientist

Researcher, Ph.D. National Center of

Space Research and Technologies,

Kazakhstan,

[email protected]

WELCOME to KAZAKHSTAN!

e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

MAIN RESULTS OF SPACE MONITORING OF VEGETATION COVER … · june july august september 1 decade 2 decade 3 decade Dynamic of ten-days VCI values, 2010 VCI-maps allow visualization

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