MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1

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MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1

Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE)

Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries

20~24 March 2006

Jakarta, Indonesia

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1. What is it?• A coupled gas-cycle/climate model (MAGICC) that drives a spatial

climate change scenario generator (SCENGEN);

• MAGICC: Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced

Climate Change; SCENGEN: SCENario GENerator;

• Enabling non-expert users to investigate the implications of

alternative emissions scenarios for future global and regional

climate change;

• Allowing the exploration of emissions scenarios and scientific

uncertainties in projecting future global and regional climate

change;

• An upgraded version of MAGICC/SCENGEN2.4;

• Model developed by Tom Wigley, GUI by Seth McGinnis, funded by

U.S. EPA through Stratus Consulting

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Library of Emissions Scenarios

Gas Cycle Models

User Choices of Model

Parameters

AtmosphericComposition

Changes

Global-meanTemperature

and Sea Level Output

Global-mean Temperature

And Sea LevelModel

User ChoicesOf Model

Parameters

SCENGEN

THE MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 : MAGICC

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THE MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 : SCENGEN

Global-mean Temperature

from MAGICC

Regionalization Algorithm

Library ofGCM Data Sets

Library ofBaseline

ClimatologyData (1961-90)

User Choices

GCMs to use,Future time slice,

Region,…

RegionalClimate or

Climate ChangeOutput

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Using MAGICC/SCENGEN

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MAGICC: Selecting emissions scenarios

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MAGICC: Selecting emissions scenarios (continued)

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MAGICC: Selecting Forcings

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MAGICC: Displaying Results

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MAGICC: Displaying Results (continued)

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Running SCENGEN

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Running SCENGEN (continued)

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SCENGEN: Analysis

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SCENGEN: Model Selection

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SCENGEN: Area of Analysis

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SCENGEN: Select Variable

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SCENGEN: Emissions scenario

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SCENGEN: Map Results

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SCENGEN: Numerical ResultsINTER-MOD S.D. : AREA AVERAGE = 5.186 % (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) INTER-MOD SNR : AREA AVERAGE = -.067 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) PROB OF INCREASE : AREA AVERAGE = .473 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) GHG ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = -.411 % (FOR SCALED DATA) AEROSOL ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = -.277 % (FOR SCALED DATA) GHG AND AEROSOL : AREA AVERAGE = -.687 % (FOR SCALED DATA)   *** SCALED AREA AVERAGE RESULTS FOR INDIVIDUAL MODELS *** (AEROSOLS INCLUDED)  MODEL = BMRCD2 : AREA AVE = 2.404 (%) MODEL = CCC1D2 : AREA AVE = -5.384 (%) MODEL = CCSRD2 : AREA AVE = 6.250 (%) MODEL = CERFD2 : AREA AVE = -2.094 (%) MODEL = CSI2D2 : AREA AVE = 6.058 (%) MODEL = CSM_D2 : AREA AVE = 1.245 (%) MODEL = ECH3D2 : AREA AVE = .151 (%) MODEL = ECH4D2 : AREA AVE = -1.133 (%) MODEL = GFDLD2 : AREA AVE = 1.298 (%) MODEL = GISSD2 : AREA AVE = -3.874 (%) MODEL = HAD2D2 : AREA AVE = -5.442 (%) MODEL = HAD3D2 : AREA AVE = -.459 (%) MODEL = IAP_D2 : AREA AVE = -.088 (%) MODEL = LMD_D2 : AREA AVE = -6.548 (%) MODEL = MRI_D2 : AREA AVE = .065 (%) MODEL = PCM_D2 : AREA AVE = -3.451 (%) MODEL = MODBAR : AREA AVE = -.687 (%)

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To obtain the MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 software, please contact

Dr Tom Wigley

National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Boulder, Colorado

U.S.A

E-mail: [email protected]

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/index.html