MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK€¦ · taxa de juros do tÍtulo de 10 anos do tesouro americano 2006 - 2013. fonte: bloomberg source: bloomberg, bradesco . 4 chinese gdp ...

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Better signs for Brazilian economic

policy should come at a price in the

short term but bring benefits in the

longer term

Economic Research Department - DEPEC

The normalization of U.S. monetary policy will begin in

2015 (probably in the second half), in a process that will be

gradual and properly signaled to markets. The magnitude

of the interest-rate adjustment by the Federal Reserve is

an open question, especially because of the imminently-

deflationary environment in Europe, the increase in

monetary stimuli in Japan and falling oil prices.

However, signals point to acceleration in U.S. growth, a

stronger dollar and a moderate advance in long-term U.S.

Treasury yields.

Hence, emerging-market currencies tend to weaken, and

even more so because of lower expected growth in China

and the widespread drop in commodity prices.

US AND GERMANY: 10 YEAR INTEREST RATE 2011-2015

%

2.40 2.36

1.87

2.06

1.63

2.74

2.99

2.50

3.03

2.582.46

2.64 2.61

2.14

2.39

2.03

1.72

2.33

1.171.30

1.17

1.52

2.04

1.69

1.96

1.69

1.43

1.05

0.76

0.500.40

0.90

1.40

1.90

2.40

2.90

3.40

12/0

1/1

1

12/0

2/1

112/0

3/1

1

12/0

4/1

1

12/0

5/1

1

12/0

6/1

1

12/0

7/1

1

12/0

8/1

1

12/0

9/1

1

12/1

0/1

1

12/1

1/1

1

12/1

2/1

1

12/0

1/1

2

12/0

2/1

212/0

3/1

2

12/0

4/1

2

12/0

5/1

2

12/0

6/1

2

12/0

7/1

2

12/0

8/1

2

12/0

9/1

2

12/1

0/1

2

12/1

1/1

2

12/1

2/1

2

12/0

1/1

3

12/0

2/1

312/0

3/1

3

12/0

4/1

3

12/0

5/1

3

12/0

6/1

3

12/0

7/1

3

12/0

8/1

3

12/0

9/1

3

12/1

0/1

3

12/1

1/1

3

12/1

2/1

3

12/0

1/1

4

12/0

2/1

412/0

3/1

4

12/0

4/1

4

12/0

5/1

4

12/0

6/1

4

12/0

7/1

4

12/0

8/1

4

12/0

9/1

4

12/1

0/1

4

12/1

1/1

4

12/1

2/1

4

12/0

1/1

5

Treasury 10 years

Juros 10 years - Germany

TAXA DE JUROS DO TÍTULO DE 10 ANOS DO TESOURO AMERICANO 2006- 2013. Fonte: Bloomberg

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO

4

CHINESE GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1997 - 2016

SOURCE: CEIC

FORECAST: BRADESCO

9.3

7.8 7.6

8.4 8.3

9.1

10.1

11.3

12.7

14.2

9.69.2

10.4

9.3

7.7 7.77.3

6.56.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual). Fonte: Bloomberg

Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco

4

At the same time as we acknowledge the various challenges present in the short-term,

we believe the signs that the economic policy will favor a rebalancing of the public

accounts and reducing inflation will be essential for the long-term outlook and the

resumption of growth for the Brazilian economy.

We cannot expect any great expansion in GDP growth in this

phase of transition and adjustments and are projecting

growth of 0.2% and 0.5% for 2014 and 2015, respectively.

BRAZILIAN GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 2000 - 2015

CRESCIMENTO DO PIB 1984 - 2012

SOURCE: IBGE

FORECAST: BRADESCO 7

5.4

7.87.5

3.5

-0.1

3.2

-4.3

1.0

-0.5

4.7

5.3

4.4

2.1

3.4

0.0 0.3

4.3

1.3

2.7

1.1

5.7

3.2

4.0

6.1

5.2

-0.3

7.5

2.7

1.0

2.5

0.00.5

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

*

2015

*

Média 1984-2003: 2,7%

Média 2004-2013: 3,8%

CRESCIMENTO ANUAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO - % - 1984 - 2014Fonte: IBGE e IPEAElaboração e Projeção: Bradesco

BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – SIX MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ANNUAL AVERAGE (2005 – 2015)

8

9,910,0

9,3

7,98,1

6,7

6,0

5,55,4

4,9

5,7

4,5

5,5

6,5

7,5

8,5

9,5

10,5

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

TAXA DE DESEMPREGOFonte: IBGE

SOURCE: IBGE

FORECAST: BRADESCO

BRAZILIAN NET CREATION OF FORMAL JOB – ‘000 INDIVIDUAL JOBS

9 SOURCE: CAGED

FORECAST: BRADESCO

1523

1254 1229

1617

1452

995

2137

1566

868

731

260

400

750

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

CAGED - GERAÇÃO DE VAGAS, EM MILHARES

-1.3%

1.5%

4.0%

3.2%3.4%

3.2%

3.8%

2.7%

4.1%

1.8%2.0%

1.5%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

RENDIMENTO MÉDIO REAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUALFonte: IBGEElaboração: Bradesco

BRAZILIAN REAL WAGES – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE

10 SOURCE: IBGE

FORECAST: BRADESCO

11

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL WAGES ADJUSTMENTS – BRADESCO

SURVEY – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE

SOURCE: MBA / BRADESCO

7.4

7.6

7.2

6.2

8.0

7.1

6.1

6.6

7.1

8.9

7.4

9.1

8.5

7.2

8.1

8.4

6.8

8.3

7.8

9.3

8.1

9.3

9.7 9.7

9.2

8.78.5

8.28.1 8.1

8.6

8.38.1 8.1 8.1

8.2

7.77.5

7.7 7.6 7.7 7.7

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

jan

/10

fev

/10

ma

r/10

ab

r/10

ma

i/1

0ju

n/1

0ju

l/1

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se

t/1

0o

ut/

10

no

v/1

0d

ez/1

0ja

n/1

1fe

v/1

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ar/

11

ab

r/11

ma

i/1

1ju

n/1

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l/1

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/11

se

t/1

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11

no

v/1

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2fe

v/1

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ar/

12

ab

r/12

ma

i/1

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n/1

2ju

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go

/12

se

t/1

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ut/

12

no

v/1

2d

ez/1

2ja

n/1

3fe

v/1

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ar/

13

ab

r/13

ma

i/1

3ju

n/1

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l/1

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/13

se

t/1

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ut/

13

no

v/1

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n/1

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v/1

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ab

r/14

ma

i/1

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n/1

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l/1

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go

/14

se

t/1

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14

no

v/1

4d

ez/1

4

REAJUSTES SALARIAIS NOMINAIS – PESQUISA PROPRIETÁRIA – TODOS OS SETORES AGREGADOS

Pesquisa Proprietária

PERCENT CHANGES IN HOURLY COMPENSATION COSTS IN MANUFACTURING, US$, 2006-2012

SOURCE: BLS, BRADESCO 12

0.0%

8.3%

16.3% 17.4% 19.3% 21.1% 22.8%25.5%

28.1%

33.5%36.3%

42.1%

47.1%

57.3%

63.4%

87.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Un

ite

d K

ing

do

m

Me

xic

o

Neth

erl

an

ds

Ge

rma

ny

Gre

ec

e

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Ta

iwan

Fra

nc

e

Ko

rea

, R

ep

ub

lic

of

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ly

Fin

lan

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Po

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Belg

ium

Sp

ain

Au

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ia

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Den

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Can

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ary

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lan

d

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ed

en

Sw

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nd

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y

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el

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h R

ep

ub

lic

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pan

Ph

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es

New

Ze

ala

nd

Es

ton

ia

Au

str

ali

a

Slo

va

kia

Sin

ga

po

re

Bra

zil

crescimento acumulado

2006 = 100

BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS – QUANTUM, INDEX NUMBER – 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO

98,1

84,7

75,7

80,6

83,284,7 84,2

82,8 82,2

84,287,3

87,385,5

83,0

79,9

77,3

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

no

v/0

8

jan

/09

mar/0

9

mai/0

9

jul/09

set/

09

no

v/0

9

jan

/10

mar/1

0

mai/1

0

jul/10

set/

10

no

v/1

0

jan

/11

mar/1

1

mai/1

1

jul/11

set/

11

no

v/1

1

jan

/12

mar/1

2

mai/1

2

jul/12

set/

12

no

v/1

2

jan

/13

mar/1

3

mai/1

3

jul/13

set/

13

no

v/1

3

jan

/14

mar/1

4

mai/1

4

jul/14

set/

14

no

v/1

4

13

BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE)

2,7%

0,3%

8,3%

2,8% 2,7%

5,9%

3,1%

-7,1%

10,2%

0,4%

-2,3%

2,1%

-2,5%

0,2%

-9,0%

-5,0%

-1,0%

3,0%

7,0%

11,0%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUALFonte: IBGE

SOURCE: IBGE


BRAZILIAN RETAIL SALES – INCLUIDING AUTO AND BUILDING

MATERIALS (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE)

SOURCE: IBGE


10,8%

3,4%

6,5%

13,5%

9,8%

7,0%

12,0%

6,8%

7,9%

3,6%

0,0%

2,0%

0,0%

3,0%

6,0%

9,0%

12,0%

15,0%

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

PROJEÇÕES PMC AMPLIADA

RETAIL SALES (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) - 2014

SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 16

-7,8%

-4,7%

-2,4%

-0,2%

0,0%

0,0%

1,8%

2,2%

3,3%

3,5%

9,0%

-10,0% -8,0% -6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0%

Vehicles, motorcycles, autoparts and pieces

Amplified PMC

Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery

Building material

Textiles, clothing and footwear

Restricted Monthly Retail Survey (PMC)

Furniture and Electrodomestic appliances

Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food prod, drinks and tobacco

Office, IT and communications equipment and materials

Fuels and lubricants

Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic, perfume and cosmetic articles

2014

RETAIL SALES (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) - 2015

SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 17

0,8%

0,9%

1,4%

1,5%

1,6%

2,0%

2,3%

2,5%

2,6%

3,5%

6,1%

0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0%

Building material

Vehicles, motorcycles, autoparts and pieces

Furniture and Electrodomestic appliances

Textiles, clothing and footwear

Amplified PMC

Restricted Monthly Retail Survey (PMC)

Books, newspapers, magazines andstationery

Office, IT and communications equipmentand materials

Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food prod,drinks and tobacco

Fuels and lubricants

Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic,perfume and cosmetic articles

Variação das vendas setoriais no comércio varejista - 2015 Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco

BRAZILIAN SOCIAL MOBILITY: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN CLASSES A,B AND C - 12-MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

SOURCE: PME, PNAD/IBGE,

BRADESCO

79.15

86.10

98.74

106.86

119.95

118.90

122.82

127.35

76.0

86.0

96.0

106.0

116.0

126.0

no

v/0

4ja

n/0

5m

ar/

05

mai/0

5ju

l/05

set/

05

no

v/0

5ja

n/0

6m

ar/

06

mai/0

6ju

l/06

set/

06

no

v/0

6ja

n/0

7m

ar/

07

mai/0

7ju

l/07

set/

07

no

v/0

7ja

n/0

8m

ar/

08

mai/0

8ju

l/08

set/

08

no

v/0

8ja

n/0

9m

ar/

09

mai/0

9ju

l/09

set/

09

no

v/0

9ja

n/1

0m

ar/

10

mai/1

0ju

l/10

set/

10

no

v/1

0ja

n/1

1m

ar/

11

mai/1

1ju

l/11

set/

11

no

v/1

1ja

n/1

2m

ar/

12

mai/1

2ju

l/12

set/

12

no

v/1

2ja

n/1

3m

ar/

13

mai/1

3ju

l/13

set/

13

no

v/1

3ja

n/1

4m

ar/

14

mai/1

4ju

l/14

set/

14

Milh

õe

s

EVOLUÇÃO DO NÚMERO DE BRASILEIROS NAS CLASSES A, B E C - MÉDIA MÓVEL DE 12 MESES

Fonte: IBGEElaboração: Bradesco

18

37.9%

20.0%

33.3%

3.8%5.0%

18.4% 17.9%

53.2%

5.7% 4.8%

11.9%

16.3%

58.9%

7.9%5.1%

00%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Classe E Classe D Classe C Classe B Classe A

2000

2010

2020*

BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES, IN MILLION PEOPLE

SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO

CLASSE A: R$ 7.006 OU MAIS

CLASSE B: DE R$ 4.635 A R$ 7.006

CLASSE C: DE R$ 1.159 A R$ 4.635

CLASSE D: DE R$ 701 A R$ 1.159

CLASSE E: ATÉ R$ 701

19

BRAZILIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION 1991 - 2015

G:\Area Economica\BBV\Regina\ palestra agribusiness - arroz preços internos.xls

EM MIL TON

* Projeção SOURCE AND FORECAST: CONAB, USDA, BRADESCO

20

57,901

68,400

76,03581,065

78,42783,030

100,26796,761

123,168

113,898

131,751

144,137149,255

162,803

188,658193,461

201,555

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

3

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5*

em mil toneladasFonte e projeção: Conab Elaboração: Bradesco

Produção Nacional de Grãos - 1991 - 2015

Assuming that the fiscal adjustment in question also includes a realignment of

prices, inflation should rise temporarily, with the pressure concentrated on administered prices in particular. This leads us to foresee the Amplified Consumer Price Index (local acronym IPCA) rising by 6.4% and 6.8% in

these two years.

21

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE

SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

5.69%

3.14%

4.46%

5.90%

4.31%

5.91%

6.50%

5.84% 5.91%

6.41%

6.80%

5.20%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016*

IPCA ANUAL 2005 – 2014* (NOVA AGREGAÇÃO E NOVA POF)

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – ADMINISTERED PRICES - ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE – 2005-2016

SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO

8.96%

4.27%

1.65%

3.27%

4.73%

3.13%

6.20%

3.67%

1.52%

5.31%

8.75%

4.72%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016*

ADMINISTRADOS ANUAL 2005 – 2014* (NOVA AGREGAÇÃO E NOVA POF)

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – DURABLE GOODS PRICES - ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE – 2002-2016


3.06%

-1.75%

-0.05% -0.01%

-1.89%

0.94%

-1.55%

-3.47%

3.61%

3.00%

1.65%

0.80%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016*

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – SERVICE PRICES - ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE – 2002-2016


4.86%

5.54%

7.32%

6.66% 6.77%

5.72% 5.79%

8.10%

6.73%

8.02%

9.79%

8.74% 8.73%8.33%

7.58%

7.08%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016*

Serviços no IPCA

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – FOOD PRICES - ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE – 2005-2016


9.63%

19.46%

7.48%

3.87%

1.99%1.23%

10.77% 11.12%

3.17%

10.39%

7.19%

9.86%

8.48%8.03%

7.59%7.00%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

22.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016*

ALIMENTAÇÃO DOMICÍLIO ANUAL

27

OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE

RATE

27

The combination of a fiscal and monetary tightening to face up to these challenges

means that Brazil's base interest rate, known as the Selic, is set to rise to 12.5%

next year, with the primary surplus coming to 1.2% of GDP, as indicated by the new

proposed 2015 budget.

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) 2008-2015

SOURCE: BCB


11,75%

13,00%

13,75%

12,75%

11,25%

10,25%

8,75%8,75%

9,50%

10,25%

10,75%

11,25%

12,00%12,50%

11,00%

10,50%

9,75%

9,00%

8,50%

8,00%

7,25%

8,00%

8,50%

9,00%

9,50%

10,00%

10,50%

10,75%11,00%

11,25%

11,75%

12,50%

6,0%

7,0%

8,0%

9,0%

10,0%

11,0%

12,0%

13,0%

14,0%

mar-

08

jun

-08

set-

08

dez-

08

mar-

09

jun

-09

set-

09

dez-

09

mar-

10

jun

-10

set-

10

dez-

10

mar-

11

jun

-11

set-

11

dez-

11

mar-

12

jun

-12

set-

12

dez-

12

mar-

13

jun

-13

set-

13

dez-

13

mar-

14

jun

-14

set-

14

dez-

14

mar-

15

jun

-15

set-

15

dez-

15

Taxa nominal de juros (Selic). Fonte: BC

Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic

PRIMARY SURPLUS AS % OF GDP 2001-2015

SOURCE: BACEN

3.4%3.2% 3.3%

3.7% 3.8%

3.2%3.3%

3.4%

2.0%

2.7%

3.1%

2.4%

1.9%

-0.2%

1.2%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

SUPERÁVIT PRIMÁRIO EM % DO PIB buy side

The exchange rate will respond to this domestic situation with more positive expectations and

higher interest rates but will also reflect the appreciation of the dollar at global level and the

accommodation of commodity prices. As a result, the Real will end this year at R$/US$ 2.65 and

reach R$/US$ 2.75 by the end of next year.

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2009 - 2015

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG


2.42

2.25

2.00

1.70

1.86

1.73

1.88

1.65

1.74

1.64

1.54

1.91

1.721.69

1.88

2.032.08

1.99

2.122.04

1.95

2.14

2.25

2.46

2.15

2.33

2.44

2.36

2.25

2.612.56

2.702.74

1.45

1.65

1.85

2.05

2.25

2.45

2.65

2.85

12/0

1/0

912/0

2/0

912/0

3/0

912/0

4/0

912/0

5/0

912/0

6/0

912/0

7/0

912/0

8/0

912/0

9/0

912/1

0/0

912/1

1/0

912/1

2/0

912/0

1/1

012/0

2/1

012/0

3/1

012/0

4/1

012/0

5/1

012/0

6/1

012/0

7/1

012/0

8/1

012/0

9/1

012/1

0/1

012/1

1/1

012/1

2/1

012/0

1/1

112/0

2/1

112/0

3/1

112/0

4/1

112/0

5/1

112/0

6/1

112/0

7/1

112/0

8/1

112/0

9/1

112/1

0/1

112/1

1/1

112/1

2/1

112/0

1/1

212/0

2/1

212/0

3/1

212/0

4/1

212/0

5/1

212/0

6/1

212/0

7/1

212/0

8/1

212/0

9/1

212/1

0/1

212/1

1/1

212/1

2/1

212/0

1/1

312/0

2/1

312/0

3/1

312/0

4/1

312/0

5/1

312/0

6/1

312/0

7/1

312/0

8/1

312/0

9/1

312/1

0/1

312/1

1/1

312/1

2/1

312/0

1/1

412/0

2/1

412/0

3/1

412/0

4/1

412/0

5/1

412/0

6/1

412/0

7/1

412/0

8/1

412/0

9/1

412/1

0/1

412/1

1/1

412/1

2/1

412/0

1/1

5

DECEMBER 2009

R$ 1.74 / US$

DECEMBER 2008

R$ 2.34 / US$

DECEMBER 2010

R$ 1.67 / US$

DECEMBER 2011

R$ 1.88 / US$

DECEMBER 2012

R$ 2.04 / US$

DECEMBER 2013

R$ 2.34 / US$

DECEMBER 2014

R$ 2.65 / US$

DECEMBER 2015

R$ 2.75 / US$

1.96

2.32

3.53

2.89

2.65

2.34

2.14

1.77

2.34

1.741.67

1.88

2.04

2.35

2.642.75

2.84

0.8

1.4

2

2.6

3.2

3.8

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Taxa de câmbio - R$ / US$ - Final de ano. Fonte: BCB

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG


BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2000 - 2016

TRADE BALANCE 1995 - 2015

US$ BILLION

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO 34

-6,575

-1,199 -698

2,650

13,121

24,794

33,641

44,70346,457

40,032

24,836 25,290

20,147

29,807

19,395

2,561

-3,924

4,098

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (IN USD MILLION)

SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO

FORECAST: BRADESCO

-1.811

-18.384

-23.502

-30.452-33.416

-25.335-24.225

-23.215

-7.637

4.177

11.679 13.985 13.643

1.551

-28.192-24.302

-47.273

-52.480-54.283

-81.379

-88.229

-76.363-77.984

-68.650-68.004

-100.000

-80.000

-60.000

-40.000

-20.000

0

20.0001

99

4

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

35

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT – US$ million

SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO

36

28.856 28.578

32.779

22.457

16.590

10.144

18.14615.066

18.822

34.585

45.058

25.949

48.506

66.660 65.272 63.99661.500

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

*

DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications

and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but

it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking,

whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in

this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this

material. We all point out that access to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage. The reproduction of the

content in this report (partially or in full) is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the sources (the name of the authors, publication

and BRADESCO) are strictly mentioned.

Updated 16th January, 2015

WWW.ECONOMIAEMDIA.COM.BR

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK€¦ · taxa de juros do tÍtulo de 10 anos do tesouro americano 2006 - 2013. fonte: bloomberg source: bloomberg, bradesco . 4 chinese gdp ...

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