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Macroeconomic Perspectives on a Macroeconomic Perspectives on a Renewable Energy Transition Renewable Energy Transition
Can Renewable Energy Provide a Solution to Climate Change?
Long-term link between economic grwoth and carbon emissions
Need to “decouple” economic activity from carbon emissions
An end to growth, or a new kind of energy economy? Or both?
Growth in Population, Agricultural Production, and Energy Use, 1961-2010
Sources: Population and Agriculture,FAO, 2012; GWP, IMF ww.imf.org; Energy, EIA www.eia.gov
World GDP 1870-2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1860 1910 1960 2010
Year
GD
P (
Tri
llio
n)
Source: Maddison, Historical Statistics for the World Economy, 2008.
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption, 1860-2008
World Carbon Dioxide Emissions, World Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Historical and ProjectedHistorical and Projected
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, 2012.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ww.eia.gov, accessed 2013.
Per Capita Emissions of CO2 by Country
Global Energy Consumption by Source, 2012
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA 2013)
Availability of Global Renewable Energy
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration; Stanford Engineering News, http://engineering.stanford.edu/news/wind-could-meet-many-times-world-total-power-demand-2030-researchers-say
Energy SourceTotal Global
Availability (trillion watts)
Availability in Likely-Developable Locations
(trillion watts)Wind 1700 40 – 85
Wave > 2.7 0.5
Geothermal 45 0.07 – 0.14
Hydroelectric 1.9 1.6
Tidal 3.7 0.02
Solar photovoltaic 6500 340
Concentrated solar power 4600 240
Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts
Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011).
Energy SourcePercent of 2030 Global Power
Supply
Number of Plants/Devices Needed
WorldwideWind turbines 50 3,800,000
Wave power plants 1 720,000
Geothermal plants 4 5,350
Hydroelectric plants 4 900
Tidal turbines 1 490,000
Rooftop solar PV systems 6 1.7 billion
Solar PV power plants 14 40,000
Concentrated solar power plants
20 49,000
TOTAL 100
Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area. (Can be combined with agricultural uses)
Global Potential for Energy Efficiency
Source: Blok et al. (2008)
Source: International Energy Agency, 2011
Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand, by Source
Growth of Solar PV and Wind Installations (2003-2012)
Source: Worldwatch Institute (2014).
Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies
Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies, 1991-2008
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011.
Based on modest investment in services, efficiency, renewables, with no loss in employment (probably a gain)
Services, Efficiency, & Renewables Scenario
Examples of “Green” Macro Policy: U.S.• $787 billion dollar stimulus package included about $71 billion for specifically
“green” investments, plus $20 billion in “green” tax incentives.
• Energy efficiency in Federal buildings and DoD facilities -- $8.7 billion• Smart-grid infrastructure investment -- $11 billion• Energy and conservation grants to state and local governments -- $6.3 billion• Weatherization assistance -- $5 billion• Energy efficiency and renewable energy research -- 2.5 billion• Advanced battery manufacturing -- $2 billion• Loan guarantees for wind and solar projects -- $6 billion• Public transit and high-speed rail -- 17.7 billion• Environmental cleanup -- $14.6 billion• Environmental research -- $6.6 billion
Aggressive Federal policy action including “green” investments “probably averted what could have been called Great Depression 2.0 . . . without the government’s response, GDP in 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, payroll employment would be less by some 8 ½ million jobs, and the nation would now be experiencing deflation.” (Blinder and Zandi, “How the Great Recession was Brought to an End”, 2010).
Examples of “Green” Macro Policy: Portugal
• Portugal government-led transition from fossil fuels towards renewable power, with the percentage of renewable supply in Portugal’s grid up from 17 percent in 2005 to 45 percent in 2010.
• $22 billion investment in modernizing electrical grid and developing wind and hydropower facilities.
• Portugal will recoup some of its investment through European Union carbon credits, and will save about $2.3 billion a year on avoided natural gas imports.
“Portugal Gives Itself a Clean-Energy Makeover,” New York Times August 10, 2010.
Source: US Department of Energy, 2013ACCESSED AT: http://www.eia.doe.gov