www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Macro-Industrial Working Group 2 Macro-Industrial Working Group Macroeconomic Analysis Team: Kay Smith, Team Leader, Elizabeth Sendich, Russ Tarver, and Vipin Aurora September 11, 2012 | Washington, DC Macro section WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
32
Embed
Macro-Industrial Working Group 2 · Macro-Industrial Working Group 2 ... •More detailed inclusion of increased unconventional natural ... Resins and Synthetic Fibers
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Macro-Industrial Working Group 2
Macro-Industrial Working Group
Macroeconomic Analysis Team: Kay Smith, Team Leader, Elizabeth Sendich,
Russ Tarver, and Vipin Aurora
September 11, 2012 | Washington, DC
Macro section
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Overview
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 2
• The overall macroeconomic outlook
• The detailed industrial production outlook
• Summary employment and commercial floor space outlook
• Concluding remarks
Do NOT distribute or cite
Macroeconomic Explanations for Industrial
Output Growth
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 3
• Exports grow faster than imports so more of industrial output
satisfied domestic demand
• Compared to AEO2012, imports grow more slowly than
exports. In the AEO2012, imports grow by 4.3 percent (2012
to 2040), while exports grow by 5.7 percent. For the
preliminary AEO2013, imports grow by 3.9 percent while
exports grow by 5.5 percent. So compared to the AEO2012,
this year more of the industrial output again satisfies
domestic demand.
• More detailed inclusion of increased unconventional natural
gas impacts on other industries, primarily concentrated in
bulk chemicals, primary metals and metal based durables.
Do NOT distribute or cite
National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)
Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM)
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 4
NEMS MAM
NEMS Macro
Baseline
Variables
Macroeconomic Submodule runs
the New Scenario using new Energy
Inputs from NEMS
NEMS
Energy
Variables
Industry Submodule runs the New
Scenario of values of shipments by
industry sectors
MAM applies
the ratios of the
New Scenario
values over the
Baseline values
onto the Macro
Baseline
variables to
obtain solution Employment Submodule runs the
New Scenario of employment by
sector
Regional Submodule and Commercial
Floorspace Submodule
MAM variables for use
as input to NEMS
NEMS
Modules
Do NOT distribute or cite
Preliminary prices
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 5
Price Index (1982=1) Average crude oil price ($ per barrel)
Source: ref2012/d020112c and ref2013/d090612a
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 Natural Gas
Electricity
All Fuels
Crude Oil
AEO2012
Do NOT distribute or cite
U.S. GDP growth rates
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 6
Annual % change
Source: BEA and ref2013/d090612a
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
30 Moving Average Annual Growth
Do NOT distribute or cite
U.S. GDP comparison with other forecasts
Macroeconomic Team, Washington,
DC, Sept. 11, 2012 7
Annual % change
Sources: ref2012/d020112c, ref2013/d090612a, CBO, IHS-GI, Blue Chip, OASDI, OMB, INFORUM