Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States Updated: October 29, 2016 Key Indicators over prev. as of: Real GDP 16.7T N 2.9% 2016 Q3 Unemp. 5.0% N 0.1 Sep 2016 Inflation 1.5% N 0.4 Sep 2016 one week one mo. S&P 500 2,126.41 H -0.7% H -1.1% DJIA 18,161.19 N 0.1% N 0.1% Nasdaq 5,190.10 H -1.3% H -1.5% VIX 16.19 N 21.4% N 15.5% 2-yr t-bond 0.86 N 0.02 N 0.11 10-yr t-bond 1.86 N 0.12 N 0.29 Crude oil $48.70 H -4.2% N 1.8% USD index 92.70 N 0.8% N 2.6% chart: data: About the Dashboard The Macro and Markets Dashboard for the United States con- tains more than 100 indicators of the performance of the U.S. economy. The dashboard includes twelve categories of charts, grouped by sector or market, and a table of exchange rates. Dashboard plots follow a uniform design. The line plots show trends over the past decade, while the horizontal bar plots decompose recent developments. The latest value and its reference period are listed in the bottom left corner of the plot area for line plots. Below each plot is a brief listing of the source with a link (in blue) to the source data. ECON ECON Contents About the Dashboard ............. 1 High-frequency indicators ........... 2 Macroeconomic Indicators: Overview ..... 3 Macroeconomic Indicators: Businesses .... 4 Macroeconomic Indicators: Households .... 5 Depository Corporations ............ 7 Labor Markets ................. 9 Equity Markets ................ 11 Money and Interest Rates ........... 12 Government and Policy ............ 14 Prices ..................... 15 Trade and External Sector Indicators ..... 17 Capital Flows ................. 18 Exchange Rate Table ............. 19 Contact . Brian Dew briandew.wordpress.com [email protected] @bd econ Chart of the week Business investment in equipment fell further in the third quarter 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 (Real nonresidential investment, annual percent change by type) 2016 Q3: Δ Total nonresidential investment: -1.2% Structures Equipment Intell. Prop ΔTotal Source: FRED: Table 5.3.6. Real Private Fixed Investment by Type, Chained Dollars While GDP growth picked up in the third quarter, business investment remains weak. As a result of further decreases in investment in equipment, total real nonresidential investment fell 1.2 percent in Q3. Investment in equipment adjusts relatively quickly to changing business prospects and often precedes further decreases in investment in structures, which take longer to show up. briandew.wordpress.com | bd econ
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Macro and Markets Dashboard: United StatesUpdated: October 29, 2016
Key Indicatorsover prev. as of:
ÿ ! Real GDP 16.7T N 2.9% 2016 Q3
ÿ ! Unemp. 5.0% N 0.1 Sep 2016
ÿ ! Inflation 1.5% N 0.4 Sep 2016
one week one mo.
ÿ ! S&P 500 2,126.41 H -0.7% H -1.1%
ÿ ! DJIA 18,161.19 N 0.1% N 0.1%
ÿ ! Nasdaq 5,190.10 H -1.3% H -1.5%
ÿ ! VIX 16.19 N 21.4% N 15.5%
ÿ ! 2-yr t-bond 0.86 N 0.02 N 0.11
ÿ ! 10-yr t-bond 1.86 N 0.12 N 0.29
ÿ ! Crude oil $48.70 H -4.2% N 1.8%
ÿ ! USD index 92.70 N 0.8% N 2.6%
chart: ÿ data: !
About the Dashboard
The Macro and Markets Dashboard for the United States con-tains more than 100 indicators of the performance of the U.S.economy. The dashboard includes twelve categories of charts,grouped by sector or market, and a table of exchange rates.
Dashboard plots follow a uniform design. The line plots showtrends over the past decade, while the horizontal bar plotsdecompose recent developments. The latest value and itsreference period are listed in the bottom left corner of theplot area for line plots. Below each plot is a brief listing ofthe source with a link (in blue) to the source data.
ECONECON
Contents
About the Dashboard . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1High-frequency indicators . . . . . . . . . . . 2Macroeconomic Indicators: Overview . . . . . 3Macroeconomic Indicators: Businesses . . . . 4Macroeconomic Indicators: Households . . . . 5Depository Corporations . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Labor Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Equity Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Money and Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . 12Government and Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Trade and External Sector Indicators . . . . . 17Capital Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Exchange Rate Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Contact.
Brian Dew .� briandew.wordpress.com
7 @bd econ
Chart of the weekBusiness investment in equipment fell further in the third quarter
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
(Real nonresidential investment, annual percent change by type)
2016 Q3: ∆ Total nonresidential investment: -1.2%
Structures
Equipment
Intell. Prop
∆Total
Source: FRED: Table 5.3.6. Real Private Fixed Investment by Type, Chained Dollars
While GDP growth picked up in the third quarter, business investment remains weak. As a result of further decreases in investment inequipment, total real nonresidential investment fell 1.2 percent in Q3. Investment in equipment adjusts relatively quickly to changingbusiness prospects and often precedes further decreases in investment in structures, which take longer to show up.
briandew.wordpress.com | bd econ
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
High-frequency indicators
2
3
Oct 26, 2016: 2.1%
GDPNow (Nowcast of FRB Atlanta) !
an
nu
al
gro
wth
rate
0
50
100
150
Oct 29, 2016: 76.2
Economic policy uncertainty (Baker, Bloom, Davis) !
ind
ex
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1 U.S. Treasury bill and bond yields !Two-year: Oct 28, 2016: 0.86%
One-year: Oct 28, 2016: 0.66%
Three-month: Oct 28, 2016: 0.30%
per
cen
tyi
eld
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5
Oct 27, 2016: 4.29
High-yield corporate bond spread (over ten-year treasury) !
ba
sis
po
ints
(10
0)
2,120
2,140
2,160
2,180
2,200
Oct 28, 2016: 2126.41
S&P 500 !
ind
ex
12
14
16
18
Oct 28, 2016: 16.2
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) !
ind
ex
45
50Oct 28, 2016: $48.70
Crude oil price (WTI) !
US
Dp
erb
arre
l
Aug25
Aug30
Sept
04
Sept
09
Sept
14
Sept
19
Sept
24
Sept
29
Oct
04
Oct
09
Oct
14
Oct
19
Oct
24
120
121
122
123
124Oct 21, 2016: 123.4
Trade-weighted USD, broad index !
ind
ex
| Updated: October 29, 2016 2
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Macroeconomic Indicators: Overview
Components of real gross domestic product (GDP) Real GDP growth (annual percent change)
0
5
10
15
Real GDP: 2016 Q3: 16.7T
(chained 2009 USD, trillion) Real GDP
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
5
10
15
Consumption
Investment
Gov Spend
Net Exports
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−10
−5
0
510 year moving average
2016 Q3: 2.9%
FRED: GDPC1; GCEC1; GPDIC1; NETEXC; PCECC96 FRED: GDPC1
Gross domestic investment (GDI) Liabilities (annual percent change by sector)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
(annual percent change by sector)
2016 Q3 ∆GDI: -1.6%
Government
Businesses
Households
Total
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2016 Q2: Total Debt: 63.1T; as % of GDP: 341.9%
Fed. Gov. State/Loc. Gov. Households
Corp bus. Non-corp. bus.
Total
FRED: Saving and Investment by Sector FRED: Financial Accounts of the United States
Retail sales excluding food (annual percent change) Inventories to sales ratio
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
101 year moving average
Sep 2016: 2.2%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20161.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
Aug 2016: 1.39
FRED: RSXFS FRED: ISRATIO
| Updated: October 29, 2016 3
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Macroeconomic Indicators: Businesses
ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ISM non-manufacturing business activity index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Sep 2016: 51.5
(>50 improvement; <50 deterioration)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Sep 2016: 57.1
(>50 improvement; <50 deterioration)
Quandl: ISM/MAN PMI Quandl: ISM/NONMAN NMI
Industrial production (IP) index (2012=100) IP index change, major industry groups
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
80
100
120
140
Industrial production
Total capacity
Sep 2016: 104.2
−12−10−8 −6 −4 −2 0 2 4 6
Motor veh. & parts
Comp. and electr.
Chemicals
Food & bev.
Utilities
Fabr. metal
Aero. & misc. trans.
Machinery
Mining
5.2
2.1
0.6
−0.7
1.1
−2
−1.3
−3.3
−10.8
5
1.9
0.8
0.3
−0.4
−1.7
−2.2
−3.3
−9.4
September 2016
August 2016
FRED: INDPRO FRED: Industrial Production
Total capacity utilization (percent of capacity) Capacity utilization change, major industry groups
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
65
70
75
80
Sep 2016: 75.4
−10 −8 −6 −4 −2 0 2 4
Motor veh. & parts
Chemicals
Utilities
Fabr. metal
Aero. & misc. trans.
Food & bev.
Comp. and electr.
Machinery
Mining
4.1
1.6
0.4
−1.5
−0.6
−2.7
−2
−3.4
−8.5
4
1.7
−1.1
−1.1
−1.5
−1.8
−2.3
−3.4
−6.7
September 2016
August 2016
FRED: TCU FRED: Capacity Utilization
| Updated: October 29, 2016 4
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Real nonresidential investment Destination of corporate profits (percent of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
(annual percent change by type)
2016 Q3: ∆ Total nonresidential investment: -1.2%
Structures
Equipment
Intell. Prop
∆Total
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 Q2 corporate profit as share of GDP: 11%
Retained Earnings Dividends TaxTotal
FRED: Real Private Investment by Type FRED: National Income by Type of Income
Durable goods new orders (annual percent change) Durable goods new orders by category
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−40
−20
0
20
40
New orders:durable goods
Sep 2016: 1.6%
−8 −6 −4 −2 0 2 4 6
All other
Transportation equip.
Metal products
Comp. & electronics
Total durable goods
Primary metals
Appliances
Machinery
5.2
−1.7
4.8
2.4
−1
−3.9
−4.5
−7.6
5.2
4.9
2.6
1.9
1.6
0.4
−2.7
−6
September 2016
August 2016
FRED: DGORDER FRED: Manufacturer’s Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey
Macroeconomic Indicators: Households
Personal income (annual percent change by type) Real disposable personal income
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
Aug 2016:Total ∆: 1.3%
Wages of employees Proprietors’ income
Rental income Interest & dividends
Transfer receipts
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
10 yearmoving average
2016 Q3: 2.2%
(annual percent change)
FRED: W209RC1; A041RC1; A048RC1; PIROA; PCTR; PI FRED: A067RL1Q156SBEA
| Updated: October 29, 2016 5
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Real PCE on goods by type (annual percent change) Real PCE on services by type (annual percent change)
0 2 4 6 8 10
Recreational
Furnishings
Motor veh. & parts
All goods
Food & Beverage
Other durable goods
Other nondurable
Clothing
Gas & other energy
9.4
7.1
0.2
3.6
2.4
3.5
4.1
1.7
2.6
9.5
6.3
3.3
3.1
3
2.8
1.6
1
0.2
2016 Q3
2016 Q2
0 2 4
Health care
Food & accomodations
Other services
All services
Housing & Utilities
Recreation
Transportation
Financial and insurance
5.1
2.6
1.9
2.3
1.2
0.7
0.7
−0.4
4.7
3
2.5
2.3
1.4
1
0.5
0
2016 Q3
2016 Q2
FRED: Real PCE by Major Type of Product FRED: Real PCE by Major Type of Product
Real PCE by category (annual percent change) Personal consumption expenditure (PCE)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−4
−2
0
2
4
2016 Q3: 2.6%
Goods Services excl. housing Housing
Real PCE
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
66.5
67
67.5
68
68.5
69
Aug 2016: 68.6%
(percent of GDP)
FRED: PCE by major type of product Quandl: FRED/PCE / FRED/GDP
PCE on durable goods (percent of GDP) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
7
7.5
8
8.5
Aug 2016: 7.5%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct 2016: 87.2
Quandl: FRED/PCEDG / GDP University of Michigan Survey of Consumers
| Updated: October 29, 2016 6
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
New housing starts (thousands of units) Personal savings rate (percent of disposable income)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Sep 2016: 1,047
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
2
4
6
8
10
12
Aug 2016: 5.7%
FRED: HOUST FRED: PSAVERT
Depository Corporations
Value of bank loans by loan type (annual percent change) Bank assets by major type (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
All loans:2016 Q2: 6.7%
Mortgages Comm. & industrial
To individuals Other loans
All loans
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
−4
−6
−8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
All assets:2016 Q2: 5.0%
Loans Cash
Securities Other
All assets
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet
Domestic loans and deposits (annual percent change) Noncurrent loans (share of total loans)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−10
−5
0
5
10Deposits
Loans2016 Q2:Domestic deposits: 5.8%; Domestic loans: 7.4%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1
2
3
4
30-89 days late
≥ 90 days late
nonaccrual status
2016 Q2: 30-89 days late: 0.6%;≥ 90 days late: 0.6%; nonaccrual: 0.9%
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet
| Updated: October 29, 2016 7
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Domestic deposits (annual percent change) Bank liabilities and equity capital (annual % change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 Q2: All domestic deposits: 5.8%;interest-bearing: 5.4%; noninterest-bearing: 0.4%
Noninterest-bearing Interest-bearing
All deposits
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
−4
−6
−8
−10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 Q2: Liab. and equity: 5.0%
Deposits Equity capital Other liab.
Liab. and equity
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet
Bank income and expense (USD billions) Bank return on equity (ROE)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
2016 Q2: Pretax income: $64.00B
Interest expense Noninterest expense
Interest income Noninterest income
Pretax net income
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
2016 Q2: 9.4%
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Income Statement FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile
Noncurrent rate by loan type Loans to assets ratio by total bank assets
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Real Estate Loans
Total Loans & Leases
Commercial & Industrial
Credit Cards
Agricultural Production
Other Personal Loans
Leases
All Other Loans
Auto Loans
Loans to Banks
2.3
1.6
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0
2.1
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
40
50
60
70
< $100M
$100M–$1B
$1–10B
> $10B
2016 Q2: < $100M: 58.3%;$100M–1B: 66.3%; $1B–10B: 69.0%; > $10B: 46.1%
(percent of loans)
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Loan Performance FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Ratios by Asset Size Group
| Updated: October 29, 2016 8
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Labor Markets
Civilian unemployment rates (U-3 and U-6) Labor force participation rate
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
5
10
15
U3U6
Sep 2016: U3: 5.0%; U6: 9.7%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
62
63
64
65
66
67
Sep 2016: 62.9%
FRED: UNRATE, U6RATE (broader measure–see notes) FRED: CIVPART
Share of unemployed by duration Nonfarm payrolls (monthly percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
10
20
30
40
50
< 5 weeks
5-14 weeks
15-27 weeks
> 27 weeks
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016−0.8
−0.6
−0.4
−0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1 year moving average
Sep 2016: +156,000 (0.1%)
FRED: Unemployed persons by duration FRED: PAYEMS
Payroll growth by sector (annual percent change) Payrolls (annual percent change by major category)
−15 −10 −5 0 5
Construction
Prof & Business Serv
Educ & Health Serv
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Other Services
Trade Transp & Util
Government
Information
Manufacturing
Mining & Logging
(As of: September 2016 )
2.9
2.7
2.4
2
1.6
0.3
3.4
1.6
−0.4
−13.8
0.7
Services
Goods
Government
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
Goods
Serv.
Gov.
Sep 2016:Goods: 0.3%; Services: 2.2%; Government: 0.7%
FRED: Current Employment Statistics FRED: Current Employment Statistics
| Updated: October 29, 2016 9
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
New jobless claims (weekly, thousands) Real median weekly wage (1982–84 dollars)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
200
300
400
500
600
700
Oct 22, 2016: 258,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
320
330
340
350
2016 Q3: 347
FRED: ICSA FRED: LES1252881600Q
Nominal average hourly wage (annual percent change) Nominal average hourly wages (USD)
1 2 3 4 5
Information
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Prof. & Business Serv.
Manufacturing
Mining & Logging
Trade Transp. & Util.
Educ. & Health Serv.
Other Services
4.1
3.9
3.5
2.8
2.6
2.3
1.5
1.7
1
5
4.3
3.6
2.6
2.5
1.8
1.8
1.7
0.9September 2016
August 2016
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201612
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Goods sectors
Service sectors
Sep 2016:Goods-producing: $22.77;Private-service-providing: $21.46
FRED: Average Hourly Earnings FRED: Average Hourly Earnings
Real hourly wages and output (index, 2009=100) Labor share of output (index, 2005=100)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
95
100
105
Wages
Output
2016 Q2: Wages: 104.5 Output: 106
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
96
98
100
102
104
2016 Q2: 99.7
FRED: COMPRNFB, OPHNFB FRED: FRED/PRS85006173
| Updated: October 29, 2016 10
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Equity Markets
S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite Index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
50 week moving average
One day: H -0.3%One week: H -0.7%
Oct 28, 2016: 2,126.41
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
50 week moving average
One day: H -0.5%One week: H -1.3%
Oct 28, 2016: 5,190.10
Quandl: YAHOO/INDEX GSPC Quandl: NASDAQOMX/COMP
Dow Jones Industrial Average (thousands) ...combined and indexed (2006=100)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
50 week moving average
Oct 28, 2016: 18,161.19
One day: H 0.0%One week: N 0.1%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
50
100
150
200
250
S&P
NASDAQ
DJIA
Quandl: YAHOO/INDEX DJI
S&P 500 five-year growth forecast by sector S&P 500 dividend yield (percent)
5 10 15 20
Consumer Discretionary
Information Technology
Health Care
Industrials
Materials
Consumer Staples
Real Estate
Financials
Utilities
Telecom. Services
Energy As of: Oct 27, 2016
19
13.1
11.2
10.2
9.5
8.9
8
7.9
5.4
5
4.2
2008 2010 2012 2014 20161.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2016 Q2: 2.10%
S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500 growth forecasts (.xls) S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500 quarterly data (.xls)
| Updated: October 29, 2016 11
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
CBOE volatility index (VIX) Shiller index of price to earnings ratios
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Oct 28, 2016: 16.2
One day: N 5.4%One week: N 21.4%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
15
20
25
30
Sep 2016: 26.4
CBOE: VIX Quandl: MULTPL/SHILLER PE RATIO MONTH
Money and Interest Rates
Effective fed funds rate Fed excess reserves of depository corporations
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
2
4
6
Oct 26, 2016: 0.41%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
(USD billion)
Oct 26, 2016: 1,996B
Quandl: FRED/DFF Quandl: FRED/EXCSRESNW
Cash and cash equivalent deposits (M2) Average rate of return on M2
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
20
40
60
80
M2
M2 / GDP ratio: Aug 2016: 69.5%
(Percent of GDP)
Checkable deposits
Savings deposits
CDs
Retail money funds
Currency
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Sep 2016: 0.09%
FRED: M2SL; SAVINGSL; (CURRSL + TVCKSSL);(DEMDEPSL + OCDSL); STDSL; RMFSL / GDP Quandl: FRED/M2OWN
| Updated: October 29, 2016 12
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Treasury bond real yield by maturity 2- and 10-year treasury constant maturity rates
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
5-year
10-year
20-year
Oct 28, 2016: 5-year: -0.27%;10-year: 0.13%; 20-year: 0.55%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2-year
10-year
Oct 28, 2016:2yr: 0.86%; 10yr: 1.86%
Quandl: USTREASURY/REALYIELD Quandl: USTREASURY/YIELD
Treasury yield spreads Treasury bill and bond yield curve
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−1
0
1
2
3
4
10-year - 3-month
10-year - 2-year
Oct 28, 2016:10yr - 2yr: 1.00%; 10yr - 3mo: 1.57%
3 mo 1 yr 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr 20 yr
0
1
2
3Five years ago
Year ago
Most recent
Rates as of: Oct 28, 2016
0.3
0.660.86
1.33
1.86
2.27
Quandl: FRED/YIELD - FRED/BILLRATES Quandl: USTREASURY/YIELD
AAA corporate bonds (yield) Corporate bonds total return index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
3
4
5
6
7
Oct 07, 2016: 3.5%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Oct 27, 2016: 2,789.98
Quandl: MOODY/DAAAYLD Quandl: ML/TRI
| Updated: October 29, 2016 13
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Merrill Lynch high yield corporate bond index (yield) Merrill Lynch high yield corporate bond index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Oct 27, 2016: 6.14%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
5
10
15
20
Oct 27, 2016: 4.29%
(spread over 10-year treasury)
Quandl: ML/USTRI Quandl: ML/USTRI - USTREASURY/YIELD
Government and Policy
Total public debt by holder (percent of GDP) Economic policy uncertainty index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016−20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2016 Q2: Total public debt to GDP: 105.0%
Foreign
Private domestic
Intragovernmental
Federal Reserve Bank
Total
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
50
100
150
200
250
Sep 2016: 79.6
FRED: GFDEBTN; FDHBFIN; FDHBFRBN; FDHBPIN Baker, Bloom, and Davis: Economic Policy Uncertainty
Government expenditures and receipts Government expenditures and receipts
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
10
20
30
40
Receipts
Expenditures
Deficit: 2016 Q2: -4.7% of GDP
Deficit
(percent of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−10
0
10
20
Exp.Rec.
Expend.: 2016 Q3: 2.7% Receipts: 2016 Q2: 1.1%
(annual percent change)
FRED: GEXPND; GRECPT FRED: GEXPND; GRECPT
| Updated: October 29, 2016 14
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Government current receipts by type Government current expenditures by type
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
10
20
30
(percent of GDP, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Total: 2016 Q2: $5,276 Billion USD; 28.6% of GDP
Tax receipts
Social insurance contrib.
Transfers Income from assets
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
10
20
30
40
Total: 2016 Q3: $6,206 Billion USD; 33.3% of GDP
(percent of GDP, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Consumption
Transfers
InterestSubsidies
FRED: Government Current Receipts and Expenditures FRED: Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
Prices
Consumer price index (CPI) (annual percent change) CPI components (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
6
All-items CPI
Core CPI
Sep 2016: All-items CPI: 1.5%; Core CPI: 2.2%
−10 −5 0 5
Healthcare
Housing
Other goods & serv
Recreation
Education
Apparel
Food & Beverage
Transportation
Energy
4.9
2.6
2.1
0.9
0.7
0.2
0.1
−3.8
−9.1
4.9
2.7
2.2
0.8
0.1
−0.1
−0.2
−1.1
−2.9
September 2016
August 2016
All-items: FRED: CPIAUCSL; Core: FRED: CPIFESL FRED: CPI Indexes
Producer price index, all commodities (PPIACO) PPIACO selected components (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−10
0
10
20
Sep 2016: -1.1%
(annual percent change)
−15 −10 −5 0
Lumber & Wood
Chemicals
Metals
Rubber & Plastic
All-commod. PPI
Energy
Farm Products
1.7
−1.4
−0.1
−1.1
−3
−9.7
−15.4
2.2
1.1
0
−1
−1.1
−2.7
−12.8
September 2016
August 2016
FRED: PPIACO FRED: PPI Indexes
| Updated: October 29, 2016 15
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Oil price (USD per barrel, WTI) PPI growth: metals (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Oct 28, 2016: $48.70
One day: H -2.1%One week: H -4.2%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−10
0
10
20
Sep 2016: 0%
Quandl: CHRIS/CME CL1 FRED: WPU10
Average sales price for new houses (thousands of USD) FAO food price index (world, 2002–04=100)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
250
300
350
400
Sep 2016: $377,700
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Sep 2016: 170.9
Quandl: FRED/ASPNHSUS FAO: FFPI
Gold price (USD per ounce) Silver price (USD per ounce)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Oct 28, 2016: $1,265.90
One day: H -0.3%One week: N 0.2%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
10
20
30
40
50
Oct 28, 2016: $17.61
One day: H -0.3%One week: N 0.6%
Quandl: LBMA/GOLD Quandl: LBMA/SILVER
| Updated: October 29, 2016 16
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Trade and External Sector Indicators
Trade weighted dollar indices (1973=100) Indirect exchange rates (USD-CUR) !
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
60
80
100
120Broad index
Major currencies
Oct 21, 2016: Broad: 123.4; Major: 92.7
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
EUR
GBP
CAD
JPY(100)
FRED: DTWEXM; DTWEXB Quandl: CURRFX/USD(JPY; EUR; CAD; GBP)
Current account balance components (% of GDP) Net international investment position (% of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
2016 Q2: -2.4%
Net goods Net services
Net income Net transfers
Current account balance
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
100
120
140
160
180
Liabilities
Assets
Net IIP: 2016 Q2: -43.6% of GDP
Net IIP
(percent of GDP)
FRED: Foreign transactions in the NIPAs / GDP FRED: U.S. Net IIP / GDP
Imports, Exports, and Trade Balance (USD billion) Trade balance (percent of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance
Aug 2016: Exports: 187.9B;Imports: 228.6B; Balance: -40.7B
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
Aug 2016: -2.6%
FRED: International Trade in Goods and Services FRED: BOPGSTB / GDP
| Updated: October 29, 2016 17
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Net exports of goods (annual percent change) Net exports of services (annual percent change)
−2 0 2 4 6
Total annual change
Food feed & bev.
Consumer goods
Industrial supplies
Automobiles
Other goods
Capital goods
1.3
3.6
−1.1
−0.7
0.9
−0.7
−0.7
5.3
3.3
2.7
1
1
−0.3
−2.5August 2016
July 2016
−2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0 0.5
Maint. & repairs
Other business
Telecom
Government
Insurance
Transportation
Travel
Financial serv.
Intell. prop.
Total annual change
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
−0.3
−0.5
−0.6
−0.5
−0.8
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
−0.2
−0.4
−0.6
−1.7
−1.8
August 2016
July 2016
FRED: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Census Bureau: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
Capital Flows
Foreign holdings of U.S. securities (annual % change) Foreign purchases and sales of U.S. securities
−20 −10 0 10 20
Treasury bonds
Agency bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
Treasury bonds
Agency bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
−1.2
−2.5
0.2
−14.7
−2.1
−1
−0.9
−12.1
10.9
16.7
9.8
−6.1
13.9
21.5
11
−4.4
For
eig
np
riva
teF
orei
gn
offi
cia
l
Jul 2016
Jun 2016
Jul 2016
Jun 2016
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Sales
Purch
Net
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
Aug 2016: Net purchases: 30.4B
Treasury International Capital (TIC) System Treasury International Capital (TIC) System
U.S. holdings of foreign securities (annual % change) U.S. purchases and sales of foreign securities
−30 −20 −10 0 10
Government bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
Government bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
−10.8
−5.9
−10.3
−29
−5.2
−6.7
4.2
0.5
−4.5
5.6
3.9
−0.3
Fin
.se
ctor
No
nfi
n.
sect
or
Jul 2016 Jun 2016
Jul 2016 Jun 2016
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Sales
Purch
Net
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
Aug 2016: Net purchases: 18.0B
Treasury International Capital (TIC) System Treasury International Capital (TIC) System
| Updated: October 29, 2016 18
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Exchange Rate Table
Indirect exchange rates against the US Dollar ( USD)
Currency Rate11 day
% ch.1 week% ch.
1 month% ch.
1 year
% ch.1 yearhigh
1 yearlow Updated:
EUR 0.910 H -0.81 H -0.91 N 2.09 H -3.81 0.946 0.867 2016-10-28
GBP 0.820 H -0.25 N 0.34 N 6.38 N 18.95 0.822 0.658 2016-10-28
JPY 104.694 H -0.53 N 0.85 N 3.72 H -17.32 123.280 99.988 2016-10-28
CAD 1.338 H -0.11 N 0.37 N 2.34 N 2.15 1.458 1.253 2016-10-28
MXN 18.967 N 0.64 N 1.83 H -2.08 N 12.43 19.889 16.516 2016-10-28
AUD 1.315 H -0.20 N 0.20 N 1.18 H -5.82 1.457 1.281 2016-10-28
CNY 6.776 H -0.09 N 0.15 N 1.52 N 5.77 6.782 6.380 2016-10-28
CHF 0.988 H -0.63 H -0.59 N 1.68 H -4.31 1.030 0.953 2016-10-28
NZD 1.395 H -0.64 H -0.02 N 1.56 H -9.80 1.562 1.341 2016-10-28
SEK 9.000 H -0.87 N 0.98 N 4.84 N 2.88 9.078 7.965 2016-10-28
NOK 8.272 H -0.05 N 0.31 N 2.89 H -5.23 8.946 7.971 2016-10-28
DKK 6.775 H -0.75 H -0.78 N 1.94 H -4.05 7.058 6.455 2016-10-28
RUB 62.955 N 0.42 N 0.83 H -0.13 H -5.50 82.900 61.998 2016-10-28
HKD 7.753 H -0.02 H -0.06 H 0.00 N 0.04 7.822 7.749 2016-10-28
SGD 1.391 H -0.29 H -0.15 N 2.29 H -1.59 1.444 1.337 2016-10-28
TRY 3.112 N 0.01 N 0.98 N 4.29 N 5.98 3.112 2.796 2016-10-28
KRW 1146.600 N 0.09 N 0.81 N 4.65 H -0.72 1241.130 1090.050 2016-10-28
ZAR 13.870 H -0.01 H -1.10 N 1.85 H -3.64 16.870 13.287 2016-10-28
BRL 3.201 N 1.07 N 1.45 H -0.56 H -20.89 4.154 3.112 2016-10-28
INR 66.796 H -0.07 H -0.22 N 0.66 H -0.16 68.797 65.940 2016-10-28
ILS 3.846 H -0.05 H -0.42 N 2.50 H -0.89 3.975 3.738 2016-10-28
EGP 8.858 N 0.00 N 0.00 N 0.01 N 11.76 8.927 7.646 2016-10-28
IDR 13047.000 N 0.12 N 0.05 N 0.79 H -4.53 14130.000 12770.000 2016-10-28
THB 35.020 H -0.14 H -0.31 N 1.20 H -2.49 36.325 34.196 2016-10-28
MYR 4.197 N 0.17 N 0.29 N 1.83 H -1.57 4.420 3.835 2016-10-28
ARS 15.160 H -0.18 H -0.07 H -0.67 N 36.61 15.815 9.610 2016-10-28
COP 2985.000 N 0.75 N 1.45 N 2.48 H -1.70 3414.000 33.140 2016-10-28
CLP 653.600 N 0.49 H -1.90 H -0.75 H -9.03 732.000 642.000 2016-10-28
Quandl: CURRFX/USD(CUR)
1 The number of units of foreign currency required to purchase one U.S. dollar.
I Contact: Brian Dew | R [email protected] | � briandew.wordpress.com | 7 @bd econ
| bd econ 19
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