Top Banner
Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures . UNITED STATES Analyst(s) Shahzeb Zakaria +1 212 231 0647 [email protected] Venkat Kommineni +1212 231 8065 [email protected] 10 April 2014 Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. The Self Storage Spiderman 1Q14: EXR Leads on Pricing & Occupancy QoQ Change: Net rents: During 1Q14, EXR led the REITs with a +0.7% QoQ change in its avg. net rent index, followed by CUBE (-0.3%), SSS (-1.0%) & PSA (-1.8%). Occupancy: During 1Q14, EXR led the REITs with a +1.2% QoQ change in its avg. occupancy index, followed by SSS (+0.9%), CUBE (+0.7%) and PSA (-0.9%) (please read note regarding CUBE’s occupancy index). QoQ Δ in Occupancy and Net Rent Note: PSA sends out rent increase letters to existing customers between Feb and August Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014 MoM Change: Net rent: During Mar-14, EXR led the REITs with a +5.9% MoM change in its avg. net rent index, followed by PSA (+3.7%), SSS (+3.3%) & CUBE (-0.0%). Occupancy: During Mar-14, SSS led the REITs with a +2.3% MoM change in its avg. occupancy, followed by PSA (+2.2%), EXR (+2.1%) and CUBE (+1.6%) (please read note on page 3 regarding CUBE’s occupancy index). Current construction levels have minimal impact: Given the strong MoM occupancy gains (across the board) in March, it appears that the spring selling season is off to a solid start (post weather impacted months of Dec/Jan that might have impacted MoM comparisons). Over the last few months, the value of mini-storage construction (as reported by U.S. Census Bureau) has invariably been revised downwards, following the preliminary estimate. Moreover, construction spending (on TTM basis) has been relatively flat over the last 10 months . We estimate that in the 1-yr ended Feb-14, self storage sqf stock grew by ~0.5%, well below the ~1.6% avg. from July-97 to July-09 (our current estimate of 0.5% is biased upwards; please read our construction monitor for details). We think the level of new demand (driven by population growth in the age cohort 18+ along with general economic activity) is outpacing the current level of new supply. Consequently, storage REIT fundamentals, as exhibited in pricing and occupancy trends in Fig 8, remain robust. Our estimate and TP revisions (see Fig 16) are primarily driven by more optimistic internal growth assumptions. Fun fact: Most exp. storage unit in our survey is PSA’s 60x60 uncovered parking spot in Aurora, CO that rents (online) for $6,889/mo. (Promo: 1 st mo. rent $1). Tracked Datapoints Datapoints Rented Out % change in Occupancy Net Rent Index % change in Net Rent 4Q13 1Q14 4Q13 1Q14 CUBE 7,119 4,628 4,677 0.7% 100.8 100.4 (0.3%) EXR 22,967 12,445 12,721 1.2% 97.6 98.3 0.7% PSA 28,569 12,480 12,223 (0.9%) 86.2 84.6 (1.8%) SSS 12,224 6,731 6,842 0.9% 102.9 101.8 (1.0%)
13

Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Jan 19, 2016

Download

Documents

abymills

Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our

website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.

UNITED STATES

Analyst(s) Shahzeb Zakaria +1 212 231 0647 [email protected] Venkat Kommineni +1212 231 8065 [email protected]

10 April 2014 Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.

The Self Storage Spiderman 1Q14: EXR Leads on Pricing & Occupancy

QoQ Change: Net rents: During 1Q14, EXR led the REITs with a +0.7% QoQ change in its avg.

net rent index, followed by CUBE (-0.3%), SSS (-1.0%) & PSA (-1.8%).

Occupancy: During 1Q14, EXR led the REITs with a +1.2% QoQ change in its

avg. occupancy index, followed by SSS (+0.9%), CUBE (+0.7%) and PSA (-0.9%)

(please read note regarding CUBE’s occupancy index).

QoQ Δ in Occupancy and Net Rent

Note: PSA sends out rent increase letters to existing customers between Feb and August Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

MoM Change: Net rent: During Mar-14, EXR led the REITs with a +5.9% MoM change in its avg.

net rent index, followed by PSA (+3.7%), SSS (+3.3%) & CUBE (-0.0%).

Occupancy: During Mar-14, SSS led the REITs with a +2.3% MoM change in its

avg. occupancy, followed by PSA (+2.2%), EXR (+2.1%) and CUBE (+1.6%)

(please read note on page 3 regarding CUBE’s occupancy index).

Current construction levels have minimal impact: Given the strong MoM occupancy gains (across the board) in March, it appears

that the spring selling season is off to a solid start (post weather impacted months

of Dec/Jan that might have impacted MoM comparisons).

Over the last few months, the value of mini-storage construction (as reported by

U.S. Census Bureau) has invariably been revised downwards, following the

preliminary estimate.

Moreover, construction spending (on TTM basis) has been relatively flat over the

last 10 months.

We estimate that in the 1-yr ended Feb-14, self storage sqf stock grew by ~0.5%,

well below the ~1.6% avg. from July-97 to July-09 (our current estimate of 0.5% is

biased upwards; please read our construction monitor for details).

We think the level of new demand (driven by population growth in the age cohort 18+

along with general economic activity) is outpacing the current level of new supply.

Consequently, storage REIT fundamentals, as exhibited in pricing and occupancy

trends in Fig 8, remain robust. Our estimate and TP revisions (see Fig 16) are

primarily driven by more optimistic internal growth assumptions.

Fun fact: Most exp. storage unit in our survey is PSA’s 60x60 uncovered parking

spot in Aurora, CO that rents (online) for $6,889/mo. (Promo: 1st mo. rent $1).

Tracked

Datapoints

Datapoints

Rented Out

% change in

Occupancy Net Rent Index

% change in

Net Rent

4Q13 1Q14 4Q13 1Q14

CUBE 7,119 4,628 4,677 0.7% 100.8 100.4 (0.3%)

EXR 22,967 12,445 12,721 1.2% 97.6 98.3 0.7%

PSA 28,569 12,480 12,223 (0.9%) 86.2 84.6 (1.8%)

SSS 12,224 6,731 6,842 0.9% 102.9 101.8 (1.0%)

Page 2: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 2

Our survey over-estimated the sequential decline in occupancy for 4Q13 (vs 3Q13).

Fig 1 Our survey over-estimated the decline in occupancy

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

Our survey estimates the net rent change for new customers whereas the REITs report a combined

net rent figure for both new & existing customers. PSA discloses move-in rates for new customers but

the company reported the annual figure in the latest 10-K (vs the quarterly fig in the 10-Qs). Since the

customer turnover for PSA in 4Q is difficult to est., we refrain from using an implied 4Q13 move-in fig.

Fig 2 Survey’s rent est. for NEW customers vs REIT reported fig for new & existing cust.

Note: CUBE’s rent/occup. sqf figs are from 4Q13 supplemental; 3Q13 supp lists a diff figure (same store pool changed) Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

Using the Δ between our survey & REIT reported figs, we have estimated the QoQ changes for 1Q14.

Fig 3 1Q14 versus 4Q13

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

Please note, these are sequential (QoQ) projections (using daily averages for rents and

occupancy) and will likely be much different from the YoY comparisons reported by the REITs.

Fig 4 Sequential change in rents & occupancy (adding the est. diff. from 4Q13 data)

Note: PSA sends out rent increase letters to existing customers between Feb and August. As a result, PSA’s sequential increase in net rents is likely higher than the fig in the left exhibit.

CUBE/EXR/SSS send out rent increase letters to existing customers throughout the year (impacts turnover of existing customers).

Please read note regarding CUBE’s occupancy index (on pg 3).

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

Tracked

Datapoints

Datapoints

Rented Out % Δ

SS Avg Occupancy

(%) % Δ Diff

Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4

CUBE 7,119 4,813 4,628 (2.6%) 90.0 88.9 (1.2%) 1.4%

EXR 22,967 13,281 12,445 (3.6%) 91.1 89.7 (1.5%) 2.1%

PSA 28,569 13,182 12,480 (2.5%) 94.4 93.0 (1.5%) 1.0%

SSS 12,224 7,203 6,731 (3.9%) 90.9 89.5 (1.5%) 2.3%

Macq. Net

Rent Index % Δ

Rent / Occup. Sqf

(co. reported) % Δ Diff

Turnover

in 4Q

Rent Increase to

Existing Customers

Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4 Period Increase

CUBE 102.5 100.8 (1.7%) 12.63 12.74 0.9% 2.6% ~23% 5-12-12 +8% to +9%

EXR 100.0 97.6 (2.5%) 14.33 14.39 0.4% 2.9% ~23% 5-9-9 +8% to +9%

PSA 91.3 86.2 (5.6%) 14.46 14.41 (0.3%) 5.3% < 23% Feb-Aug avg ~8.5%

SSS 104.6 102.9 (1.6%) 11.07 11.02 (0.5%) 1.2% ~23% ~8-12-12 avg ~9%

Tracked

Datapoints

Datapoints

Rented Out % Δ

Diff from

4Q

Est.

Occup. Δ

Q4 Q1

CUBE 7,119 4,628 4,677 0.7% 1.4% 2.1%

EXR 22,967 12,445 12,721 1.2% 2.1% 3.3%

PSA 28,569 12,480 12,223 (0.9%) 1.0% 0.1%

SSS 12,224 6,731 6,842 0.9% 2.3% 3.2%

Macq. Net Rent Index % Δ

Diff from

4Q

Est. Net

Rent Δ

4Q13 1Q14

CUBE 100.8 100.4 (0.3%) 2.6% 2.3%

EXR 97.6 98.3 0.7% 2.9% 3.6%

PSA 86.2 84.6 (1.8%) 5.3% 3.5%

SSS 102.9 101.8 (1.0%) 1.2% 0.2%

Est. Net

Rent Δ

Est.

Occupancy Δ

Total

Change

1Q14

CUBE 2.3% 2.1% 4.4%

EXR 3.6% 3.3% 7.0%

PSA 3.5% 0.1% 3.5%

SSS 0.2% 3.2% 3.4%

Page 3: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 3

4Q13 Scorecard

While we do not think our survey can predict same store revenue and occupancy figures, we

do expect our survey to be indicative of trends.

Fig 5 Macq Street Rate Index versus REIT reported rent / occupied sqf

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

The above table summarizes the changes in street rates (which only impact new customers) as

measured by our net rent index, along with the company reported rent / occupied sqf figures (for the

same store portfolios).

We also provide details around portfolio turnover (Macq. estimates) and rent increases to existing

customers (5-12-12 means the customer is eligible for a rent increase after 5 months of lease

commencement, followed by re-eligibility after every 12 months of the previous increase).

Noteworthy points:

CUBE Occupancy Index: CUBE removes (and adds back) units from its website, even though those

units are not rented out, as the company charges a higher rent to walk-in customers. As a result, in the

short term, CUBE’s occupancy index is impacted by removal or addition of these units from the

website. However, over the long term, the occupancy index will be directionally correct.

Our occupancy index is based on unit changes at all facilities in our database (includes facilities

that are not part of the same store pool).

The occupancy index is based on changes in the number of unique datapoints available for rent.

Currently, the index does not represent a weighted average change in the # of available datapoints

(where a datapoint for a 10 x 10 unit has more weight than one for a 7 x 7 unit – or a datapoint that is

likely to represent a smaller number of units (and revenue) at the facility).

Impact of Lease Structure on Vacate Pattern

Our occupancy indices for PSA and SSS, as presented in Fig 8, exhibit a cyclical pattern as those

companies structure their leases such that the anniversary date falls on the 1st calendar day of the

month. As a result, these companies experience a disproportionately large number of vacates towards

month end (relative to other times of the month). And since our web-spiders download pricing data at

around 6 am EST each morning, we end up reflecting occupancy and pricing changes for the last day

of the month on the 1st of the following month (explains the immediate dip in occupancy at the

beginning of the month).

EXR and CUBE structure their leases such that the anniversary date is 1 month from the lease start

date. Consequently, these companies do not experience the same vacate pattern towards month end

as experienced by PSA and SSS (visible in Fig 8 for EXR).

Macq. Net

Rent Index % Δ

Rent / Occup. Sqf

(co. reported) % Δ Diff

Turnover

in 4Q

Rent Increase to

Existing Customers

Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4 Period Increase

CUBE 102.5 100.8 (1.7%) 12.63 12.74 0.9% 2.6% ~23% 5-12-12 +8% to +9%

EXR 100.0 97.6 (2.5%) 14.33 14.39 0.4% 2.9% ~23% 5-9-9 +8% to +9%

PSA 91.3 86.2 (5.6%) 14.46 14.41 (0.3%) 5.3% < 23% Feb-Aug avg ~8.5%

SSS 104.6 102.9 (1.6%) 11.07 11.02 (0.5%) 1.2% ~23% ~8-12-12 avg ~9%

Page 4: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 4

Fig 6 Net Rent Index – MoM Change Fig 7 Occupancy Index – MoM Change

Please read note on pg3 regarding CUBE’s occupancy index

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

Fig 8 Net Rent and Occupancy Indices - By Company

Please read note regarding CUBE’s occupancy index

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

5.9%

3.7%3.3%

(0.0%)(1.0%)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

EXR PSA SSS CUBE

Avg. Net Rent Index MoM (% change)

2.3% 2.2%2.1%

1.6%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

SSS PSA EXR CUBE

Avg. Occupancy Index MoM (% change)

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

6/3

0

7/3

1

8/3

1

9/3

0

10

/31

11

/30

12

/31

1/3

1

2/2

8

3/3

1

Ind

ex

CUBE - Net Rent Index CUBE - Occupancy Index

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

110.0

6/3

0

7/3

1

8/3

1

9/3

0

10

/31

11

/30

12

/31

1/3

1

2/2

8

3/3

1

Ind

ex

EXR - Net Rent Index EXR - Occupancy Index

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

6/3

0

7/3

1

8/3

1

9/3

0

10

/31

11

/30

12

/31

1/3

1

2/2

8

3/3

1

Ind

ex

PSA - Net Rent Index PSA - Occupancy Index

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

6/3

0

7/3

1

8/3

1

9/3

0

10

/31

11

/30

12

/31

1/3

1

2/2

8

3/3

1

Ind

ex

SSS - Net Rent Index SSS - Occupancy Index

Page 5: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 5

Fig 9 Net Rent Index Fig 10 Occupancy Index

Please read note regarding CUBE’s occupancy index

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

Fig 11 Promotions offered on data points available for rent on website

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

6/3

0

7/1

4

7/2

8

8/1

1

8/2

5

9/8

9/2

2

10

/6

10

/20

11

/3

11

/17

12

/1

12

/15

12

/29

1/1

2

1/2

6

2/9

2/2

3

3/9

3/2

3

Net R

en

t In

dex

CUBE EXR PSA SSS85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

6/3

0

7/1

4

7/2

8

8/1

1

8/2

5

9/8

9/2

2

10

/6

10

/20

11

/3

11

/17

12

/1

12

/15

12

/29

1/1

2

1/2

6

2/9

2/2

3

3/9

3/2

3

Occu

pan

cy In

dex

CUBE EXR PSA SSS

First Month Half Off

First Month Free

-

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

7/1

7/1

5

7/2

9

8/1

2

8/2

6

9/9

9/2

3

10

/7

10

/21

11

/4

11

/18

12

/2

12

/16

12

/30

1/1

3

1/2

7

2/1

0

2/2

4

3/1

0

3/2

4

CUBE

None First Month Half Off First Month Free

2 Months Half Off 3 Months Half Off 2 Months Free

First Month Half Off

First Month Free

-

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

7/1

7/1

5

7/2

9

8/1

2

8/2

6

9/9

9/2

3

10

/7

10

/21

11

/4

11

/18

12

/2

12

/16

12

/30

1/1

3

1/2

7

2/1

0

2/2

4

3/1

0

3/2

4

EXR

Act fast: 1 unit left! Act fast: Limited units First Month Half Off

First Month Free 50% Off 1st 3 Months Two Months Free

None

-

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

7/1

7/1

5

7/2

9

8/1

2

8/2

6

9/9

9/2

3

10

/7

10

/21

11

/4

11

/18

12

/2

12

/16

12

/30

1/1

3

1/2

7

2/1

0

2/2

4

3/1

0

3/2

4

PSA

$1 first month rent 50% off first month rent No Special

-

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

7/1

7/1

5

7/2

9

8/1

2

8/2

6

9/9

9/2

3

10

/7

10

/21

11

/4

11

/18

12

/2

12

/16

12

/30

1/1

3

1/2

7

2/1

0

2/2

4

3/1

0

3/2

4SSS

One Left

Next Month 50% Off

Next Month Free

None

Page 6: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 6

Initial revenue assumed to be 100 at 6/30/2013

Daily change in revenue:

If Occupancy index increases, the change is multiplied by the Net Rent Index from the previous

day.

If Occupancy decreases, the change is multiplied by 100 (in future, this will be switched to the net

rent index from 13 months ago – avg length of customer stay).

Weighted daily change in revenue:

Daily change in revenue is multiplied by 0.25% (= 12 / (365*13) or the avg daily turnover). This is

done to normalize changes.

Current day revenue = Weighted daily change in revenue + Previous day revenue.

Total revenue for July indexed at 100 for all companies.

This methodology does not fully account for rent increases to existing customers.

Fig 12 Total Revenue Index

Please read note regarding CUBE’s occupancy index

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

CUBE

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

EXR

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

PSA

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

SSS

Page 7: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 7

Fig 13 Distribution of Daily Net Rent Changes

Note: Stats for time period from 1/1/2014 to 3/31/2014

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

0%

0%

2%

37%

10%

10%

38%

2%

0%

0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

> 35%

35%-to-25%

25%-to-15%

15%-to-5%

5%-to-0%

0%-to-(5%)

(5%)-to-(15%)

(15%)-to-(25%)

(25%)-to-(35%)

< (35%) CUBE

Distribution of Daily Pricing Changes

0%

0%

8%

6%

41%

31%

8%

5%

0%

0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

> 35%

35%-to-25%

25%-to-15%

15%-to-5%

5%-to-0%

0%-to-(5%)

(5%)-to-(15%)

(15%)-to-(25%)

(25%)-to-(35%)

< (35%) EXR

Distribution of Daily Pricing Changes

0%

0%

3%

17%

30%

29%

18%

2%

0%

0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

> 35%

35%-to-25%

25%-to-15%

15%-to-5%

5%-to-0%

0%-to-(5%)

(5%)-to-(15%)

(15%)-to-(25%)

(25%)-to-(35%)

< (35%) PSA

Distribution of Daily Pricing Changes0%

0%

1%

8%

41%

39%

10%

0%

0%

0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

> 35%

35%-to-25%

25%-to-15%

15%-to-5%

5%-to-0%

0%-to-(5%)

(5%)-to-(15%)

(15%)-to-(25%)

(25%)-to-(35%)

< (35%) SSS

Distribution of Daily Pricing Changes

Page 8: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 8

Pricing by Geography

Fig 14 PSA’s Net Rent Index – by MSA (Top 10 MSAs)

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

Fig 15 PSA’s Net Rent / sqf

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

Net Rent / sqf % Change

2014-2 2014-3

DENVER-AURORA-BROOMFIELD, CO 14.09 15.38 9.2%

SEATTLE-BELLEVUE-EVERETT, WA 14.40 15.22 5.7%

WASHINGTON-ARLINGTON-ALEXANDRIA, DC-VA-MD-WV 16.88 17.74 5.1%

ATLANTA-SANDY SPRINGS-MARIETTA, GA 10.24 10.70 4.4%

CHICAGO-JOLIET-NAPERVILLE, IL 11.87 12.32 3.8%

LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH-GLENDALE, CA 17.79 18.35 3.2%

ORLANDO-KISSIMMEE-SANFORD, FL 10.39 10.63 2.3%

HOUSTON-SUGAR LAND-BAYTOWN, TX 11.80 11.91 0.9%

DALLAS-PLANO-IRVING, TX 11.79 11.87 0.7%

OAKLAND-FREMONT-HAYWARD, CA 17.68 17.68 0.0%

15.00

16.00

17.00

18.00

19.00

20.00

21.00

1/1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/5 3/12 3/19 3/26

OAKLAND-FREMONT-HAYWARD, CA MIAMI-MIAMI BEACH-KENDALL, FL LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH-GLENDALE, CA SAN JOSE-SUNNYVALE-SANTA CLARA, CA

12.50

13.50

14.50

15.50

16.50

17.50

18.50

19.50

1/1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/5 3/12 3/19 3/26

PORTLAND-VANCOUVER-HILLSBORO, OR-WA SEATTLE-BELLEVUE-EVERETT, WA SANTA ANA-ANAHEIM-IRVINE, CA WASHINGTON-ARLINGTON-ALEXANDRIA, DC-VA-MD-WV

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

16.00

17.00

1/1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/5 3/12 3/19 3/26

DALLAS-PLANO-IRVING, TX CHICAGO-JOLIET-NAPERVILLE, IL MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL-BLOOMINGTON, MN-WI DENVER-AURORA-BROOMFIELD, CO

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

12.00

12.50

1/1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/5 3/12 3/19 3/26

ORLANDO-KISSIMMEE-SANFORD, FL ATLANTA-SANDY SPRINGS-MARIETTA, GA TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG-CLEARWATER, FL HOUSTON-SUGAR LAND-BAYTOWN, TX

Page 9: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 9

Our estimate revisions are primarily driven by more optimistic internal growth assumptions.

Fig 16 FFO/sh estimate and TP changes

Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 Target Price

New Old New Old New Old New Old

CUBE 1.04 1.03 1.15 1.14 1.27 1.26 18.50 18.25

EXR 2.50 2.45 2.85 2.76 3.12 3.03 52.50 51.00

PSA 8.21 8.17 8.83 8.73 9.51 9.36 183.00 179.00

SSS 4.20 4.19 4.67 4.67 5.07 5.06 78.00 77.00

Page 10: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 10

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield

Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or

down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only

Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 March 2014

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 51.32% 60.23% 41.25% 40.21% 58.52% 48.74% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.21% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Neutral 34.54% 24.97% 40.00% 53.19% 35.56% 32.77% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.67% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Underperform 14.14% 14.80% 18.75% 6.60% 5.92% 18.49% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

CUBE US vs MSCI US REIT Index, & rec history

(all figures in USD currency unless noted)

EXR US vs MSCI US REIT Index, & rec history

(all figures in USD currency unless noted)

SSS US vs MSCI US REIT Index, & rec history

(all figures in USD currency unless noted)

PSA US vs MSCI US REIT Index, & rec history

(all figures in USD currency unless noted)

Note: Recommendation timeline – if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Capital (USA), April 2014

12-month target price methodology

CUBE US: US$18.50 based on a DCF methodology

EXR US: US$52.50 based on a DCF methodology

SSS US: US$78.00 based on a DCF methodology

PSA US: US$183.00 based on a DCF methodology

Page 11: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 11

Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.

Target price risk disclosures: CUBE US (US$17.79, Neutral): Risks include development focused in the NYC metro EXR US: (US$48.24, OP): Risks include Google entering the storage space as an aggregator. SSS US: (US$74.43, N): Risks include slower growth due to relatively weaker locational quality of assets and under-performance on Google's organic search. PSA US (US$170.13, OP): Risks include a Google algorithm change that would reduce PSA's advantage for the search term "Public Self Storage"

Analyst certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd ABN 94 122 169 279 (AFSL No. 318062) (MGL) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General disclaimers: Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd and its Taiwan branch; Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd; Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd; Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited; Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt Ltd; Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd; Macquarie Securities Korea Limited and Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd are not authorized deposit-taking institutions for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia), and their obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL) or MGL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of any of the above mentioned entities. MGL provides a guarantee to the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of the obligations and liabilities of Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd for up to SGD 35 million. This research has been prepared for the general use of the wholesale clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. MGL has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level (which may be revised and updated from time to time) (the "Conflicts Policy") pursuant to regulatory requirements (including the FCA Rules) which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Macquarie salespeople, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Macquarie Research produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, macro-economic analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, you need to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. Clients should contact analysts at, and execute transactions through, a Macquarie Group entity in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. The date and timestamp for above share price and market cap is the closed price of the price date. #CLOSE is the final price at which the security is traded in the relevant exchange on the date indicated. Country-specific disclaimers: Australia: In Australia, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd (AFSL No. 238947), a participating organisation of the Australian Securities Exchange. New Zealand: In New Zealand, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd, a NZX Firm. Canada: In Canada, research is prepared, approved and distributed by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, a participating organisation of the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange & Montréal Exchange. Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, accepts responsibility for the contents of reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd in the United States and sent to US persons. Any US person wishing to effect transactions in the securities described in the reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd should do so with Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd. The Research Distribution Policy of Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd is to allow all clients that are entitled to have equal access to our research. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). Germany: In Germany, this research is issued and/or distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited, Niederlassung Deutschland, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). and in Germany by BaFin. France: In France, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). Hong Kong & Mainland China: In Hong Kong, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd, which is licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. In Mainland China, Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Shanghai Representative Office only engages in non-business operational activities excluding issuing and distributing research. Only non-A share research is distributed into Mainland China by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd. Japan: In Japan, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited, a member of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc. and Osaka Securities Exchange Co. Ltd (Financial Instruments Firm, Kanto Financial Bureau (kin-sho) No. 231, a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association and The Financial Futures Association of Japan and Japan Investment Advisers Association). India: In India, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt Ltd. (CIN: U67120MH1995PTC089592), 92, Level 9, 2 North Avenue, Maker Maxity, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051, India, which is a SEBI registered Stock Broker having membership with National Stock Exchange of India Limited (INB231246738) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (INB011246734). Malaysia: In Malaysia, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (Company registration number: 463469-W) which is a Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities Commission. Taiwan: In Taiwan, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd, Taiwan Branch, which is licensed and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Commission. No portion of the report may be reproduced or quoted by the press or any other person without authorisation from Macquarie. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product. Research Associate(s) in this report who are registered as Clerks only assist in the preparation of research and are not engaged in writing the research. Thailand: In Thailand, research is produced with the contribution of Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited, issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd. Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd. is a licensed securities company that is authorized by the Ministry of Finance, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand and is an exchange member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Limited and Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited have entered into an exclusive strategic alliance agreement to broaden and deepen the scope of services provided to each parties

Page 12: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Macquarie (USA) Research The Self Storage Spiderman

10 April 2014 12

respective clients. The strategic alliance does not constitute a joint venture. The Thai Institute of Directors Association has disclosed the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies made pursuant to the policy of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand. Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd does not endorse the result of the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies but this Report can be accessed at: http://www.thai-iod.com/en/publications.asp?type=4. South Korea: In South Korea, unless otherwise stated, research is prepared, issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities Korea Limited, which is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Services. Information on analysts in MSKL is disclosed at http://dis.kofia.or.kr/fs/dis2/fundMgr/DISFundMgrAnalystPop.jsp?companyCd2=A03053&pageDiv=02. South Africa: In South Africa, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited, a member of the JSE Limited. Singapore: In Singapore, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (Company Registration Number: 198702912C), a Capital Markets Services license holder under the Securities and Futures Act to deal in securities and provide custodial services in Singapore. Pursuant to the Financial Advisers (Amendment) Regulations 2005, Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd is exempt from complying with sections 25, 27 and 36 of the Financial Advisers Act. All Singapore-based recipients of research produced by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited, Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited and Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. represent and warrant that they are institutional investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act. United States: In the United States, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc, accepts responsibility for the content of each research report prepared by one of its non-US affiliates when the research report is distributed in the United States by Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.’s affiliate’s analysts are not registered as research analysts with FINRA, may not be associated persons of Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., and therefore may not be subject to FINRA rule restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Information regarding futures is provided for reference purposes only and is not a solicitation for purchases or sales of futures. Any persons receiving this report directly from Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. and wishing to effect a transaction in any security described herein should do so with Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures, or contact your registered representative at 1-888-MAC-STOCK, or write to the Supervisory Analysts, Research Department, Macquarie Securities, 125 W.55th Street, New York, NY 10019. © Macquarie Group

Auckland Tel: (649) 377 6433

Jakarta Tel: (62 21) 515 1818

Mumbai Tel: (91 22) 6653 3000

Singapore Tel: (65) 6601 1111

Bangkok Tel: (662) 694 7999

Johannesburg Tel: (2711) 583 2000

Munich Tel: (089) 2444 31800

Sydney Tel: (612) 8232 9555

Calgary Tel: (1 403) 218 6650

Kuala Lumpur Tel: (60 3) 2059 8833

New York Tel: (1 212) 231 2500

Taipei Tel: (886 2) 2734 7500

Denver Tel: (303) 952 2800

London Tel: (44 20) 3037 2000

Paris Tel: (33 1) 7842 3823

Tokyo Tel: (81 3) 3512 7900

Frankfurt Tel: (069) 509 578 000

Manila Tel: (63 2) 857 0888

Perth Tel: (618) 9224 0888

Toronto Tel: (1 416) 848 3500

Geneva Tel: (41) 22 818 7777

Melbourne Tel: (613) 9635 8139

Seoul Tel: (82 2) 3705 8500

Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2823 3588

Montreal Tel: (1 514) 925 2850

Shanghai Tel: (86 21) 6841 3355

Available to clients on the world wide web at www.macquarieresearch.com and through Thomson Financial, FactSet, Reuters, Bloomberg, and CapitalIQ.

Page 13: Macquarie Self Storage Pricing Survey

Research

Heads of Equity Research

John O’Connell (Global - Head) (612) 8232 7544 Andrew Root (US) (1 212) 231 2336 Greg MacDonald (Canada) (1 416) 628 3934

Consumer Discretionary & Healthcare

Life Sciences & Technology Jon Groberg (Head of US Consumer Discretionary & Healthcare) (1 212) 231 2612

Consumer Staples Dane Leone (New York) (1 212) 231 6369

Gaming & Leisure Chad Beynon (New York) (1 212) 231 2634

Consumer Retail

Department Stores & Softlines Liz Dunn (New York) (1 212) 231 8066

Sportswear Laurent Vasilescu (New York) (1 212) 231 8046

Energy

US Exploration & Production Joe Magner (Denver) (1 303) 952 2751 Paul Grigel (Denver) (1 303) 952 2754

US Refining Chi Chow (Denver) (1 303) 952 2757

Europe Integrated David Farrell (London) (44 20) 3037 4465

US Natural Gas Vehicle Industry Matthew Blair (Denver) (1 303) 952 2759

Canadian Oil Sands/Heavy Oil Producers Chris Feltin (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8544

Canadian Independents Chris Feltin (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8544

Canadian Integrateds Chris Feltin (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8544

International/Canadian Oil & Gas Producers Cristina Lopez (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8542 David Popowich (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8529 Ray Kwan (Calgary) (1 403) 539 4355

Financials

Banks/Trust Banks David Konrad (Head of Banks) (1 212) 231 0525 Thomas Alonso (New York) (1 212) 231 8047 John Moran (Denver) (1 212) 231 0662

Life Insurance Sean Dargan (New York) (1 212) 231 0663

Financials – cont’d

Mortgage & Consumer Finance Sean Dargan (New York) (1 212) 231 0663 Asim Imran (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3521

Property & Casualty Insurance Amit Kumar (New York) (1 212) 231 8013 Asim Imran (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3521

Industrials

Chemicals Cooley May (New York) (1 212) 231 2586

Construction and Engineering/Machinery Sameer Rathod (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5034

Electrical Equipment & Building Products Mike Wood (New York) (1 212) 231 6590

Transports & Logistics Kelly Dougherty (New York) (1 212) 231 2493

Waste Services Derek Sbrogna (New York) (1 212) 231 0691

Materials

Paper & Packaging Al Kabili (New York) (1 212) 231 0683

Steel & Metals Aldo Mazzaferro (New York) (1 212) 231 0693

Coal Luke McFarlane (New York) (1 212) 231 2637

Food & Agriculture Andrew Russell (New York) (1 212) 231 6541

Global Metals & Mining Daniel Greenspan (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3541 Pierre Vaillancourt (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3647 Michael Siperco (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3520 Michael Gray (Vancouver) (1 604) 639 6372

Real Estate

REITs Shahzeb Zakaria (New York) (1 212) 231 0647

TMET

Telecommunications Kevin Smithen (New York) (1 212) 231 0695 Greg MacDonald (Toronto) (1 416) 628 3934

Business & Computer Services Kevin McVeigh (New York) (1 212) 231 6191

Cable, Satellite & Entertainment Amy Yong (New York) (1 212) 231 2624

Data Center Infrastructure Rajesh Ghai (San Francisco) (1 415) 216 4718

TMET – cont’d

Internet Ben Schachter (Head of TMET) (1 212) 231 0644 Tom White (New York) (1 212) 231 0643

Semiconductors Deepon Nag (New York) (1 212) 231 8014

Software & IT Hardware Brad Zelnick (New York) (1 212) 231 2618

Media & Entertainment Tim Nollen (New York) (1 212) 231 0635

Utilities & Alternative Energy

Angie Storozynski (Head of US Utilities & Alternative Energy) (1 212) 231 2569 Andrew Weisel (New York) (1 212) 231 1159

Commodities & Precious Metals

Colin Hamilton (Global) (44 20) 3037 4061 Jim Lennon (London) (44 20) 3037 4271 Kona Haque (London) (44 20) 3037 4334

Oil & Gas

Vikas Dwivedi (Houston) (1 713) 275 6352

Economics and Strategy

Dane Leone (New York) (1 212) 231 6369 David Doyle (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3663

Quantitative Analysis

Gavin Smith (New York) (1 212) 231 0588

Find our research at

Macquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research

Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial

Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com

Bloomberg: MAC GO

Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx

CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com

Contact Gareth Warfield for access (612) 8232 3207

Email addresses

[email protected]

eg. [email protected]

Equities Head of Global Cash Equities

Stevan Vrcelj (Sydney) (612) 8232 5999

Head of US Equities

Ken Savio (New York) (1 212) 231 1184

Head of Canadian Equities

Alex Rothwell (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3677

Sales US Sales

Austin Graham (New York) (1 212) 231 2494 Peter Doerr (Chicago) (1 312) 660 9052 Ross Peet (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5069

Canada Sales

Roy McDowall (Montreal) (1 514) 925 2864

US Quantitative Specialist Sales

Victor Morange (New York) (1 212) 231 2538

Trading US Sales Trading

Austin Graham (New York) (1 212) 231 2494

Canada Trading

Perry Catellier (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3619

International Sales Trading

Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555