M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Air quality and impacts.

M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes.

Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter

The CAFE baseline scenarios:

Air quality and impacts

Air quality impactsanalyzed for the CAFE baseline scenario

Health:

• Loss in life expectancy attributable to PM2.5

• Premature deaths attributable to ozone

Vegetation:

• Ozone damage to forests (AOT40)

• Excess acid deposition to forests

• Excess acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems

• Excess acid deposition to lakes

• Excess nitrogen deposition

All impacts shown for “no further climate measures” scenario, average results of 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorological conditions

Inter-annual meteorological variabilityfor PM2.5

19991997

2000 2003

Rural concentrations,annual mean [µg/m3]

from known anthropog. sources

excluding sec. org. aerosols.

Calculations with emissions

for the year 2000

Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5

2000 2010 2020

Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.52020

Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]

from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org.

aerosols Average of calculations for

1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Loss in life expectancyattributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Loss in life expectancy 2020attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified

anthropogenic PM2.5Average of calculations for

1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

0

3

6

9

12

15

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

De

nma

rk

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Gre

ece

Ire

land

Italy

Lu

xem

bou

rg

Ne

ther

lan

ds

Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

Sw

ede

n

UK

To

tal E

U-1

5

Cze

ch R

ep

.

Est

on

ia

Hu

nga

ry

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

Ma

lta

Po

lan

d

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

To

tal N

MS

To

tal E

U-2

5

2000 2010 2020

Premature mortality attributable to ozonerelated to excess of daily max. 8 hour means > 35 ppb (SOMO35)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

da

ily

ma

x 8

-hr

me

an

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

Applied relative risk factor: 1.003 / 10 µg/m3 increase in daily max 8 h mean

Health-relevant ozone concentrations[SOMO35, ppb.days]

2000 2010 2020

Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year]

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

De

nm

ark

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Gre

ece

Ire

lan

d

Ita

ly

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

Sw

ed

en

UK

Cze

ch R

ep

.

Est

on

ia

Hu

ng

ary

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

Po

lan

d

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

2000 2010 2020

Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution

Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40 [ppm.hours]m

2000 2010 2020

Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations 2020AOT40 [ppm.hours]

Critical level for forests:

5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for

1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Acid deposition to forests

Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Acid deposition to forests2020

Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above

critical loads, using ecosystem-specific

deposition, Average of calculations for

1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Aus

tria

Bel

giu

m

Den

mar

k

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ger

ma

ny

Gre

ece

Ire

lan

d

Italy

Luxe

mbo

urg

Net

her

land

s

Por

tuga

l

Spa

in

Sw

ede

n

UK

Tot

al E

U-1

5

Cze

ch R

ep.

Est

onia

Hun

gar

y

Latv

ia

Lith

uan

ia

Pol

and

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

Tot

al N

MS

Tot

al E

U-2

5

2000 2010 2020

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas

Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems

with acid deposition above critical loads,

using ecosystem-specific deposition.

Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003

meteorologies

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas, 2020

Semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads [km2]

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

France Germany Ireland Netherlands UK

2000 2010 2020

Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Acid deposition to freshwater bodies

Percentage of catchments area

with acid deposition above critical loads,

using ecosystem-specific deposition.

Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003

meteorologies

Acid deposition to freshwater bodies2020

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

Finland Sweden UK

2000 2010 2020

Percent of lake catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication

Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Percentage of ecosystems area

with nitrogen deposition above critical loads,

using grid-average deposition.

Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003

meteorologies

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication 2020

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Den

mar

k

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Irel

and

Italy

Luxe

mbo

urg

Net

herla

nds

Por

tuga

l

Spa

in

Sw

eden UK

Tot

al E

U-1

5

Cze

ch R

ep.

Est

onia

Hun

gary

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Pol

and

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

veni

a

Tot

al N

MS

Tot

al E

U-2

5

2000 2010 2020

Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication

Conclusions

• With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future.

• However, problems will not be entirely resolved:

– PM remains serious (~5 months life expectancy loss in 2020)

– Ozone:

• Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several 1000 cases in 2020)

• Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of AOT40 critical level will prevail

– Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3

– Eutrophication remains unresolved