Lucky Cement

IndexIndexBalance sheetCommon size I/SProfit & loss accountCommon size B/SCash flow stat.Activity RatioChanges in equityLiquidity RatioNote 5 Sol.RatioNote 6ProfitabilityNote 7Forecast WorkingNote 8Forecasted Balance SheetNote 9Forecasted I/SNote 10RegressionNote 11BetaNote 12Forecasted DividendNote 13Note 14Note 15Note 16Note 17Note 18Note 19Note 20Note 21Note 22Note 23Note 24Note 25Note 26Note 27Note 28Note 29Note 30Note 31Note 32Note 33Note 34Note 35

Balance sheetLUCKY CEMENT LTDindexBalance Sheet20112010(Rupees in '000')AssetsNon-Current AssetsFixed assetsNoteProperty, plant,and equipment31705156313782555Intangible assets1685297763170684131381232Long term advance55373553737Long term deposit317521753176538931438780Current AssetsStore and spares631358440082888Stoke-in-trade12485386088139Trade debets-considered good62096177930510Loan and advances721648647111Trade deposit and386694880712Short term prepaymentsOther receivables21888420424913Tax refunds due from Govt.53881253881214Taxation-net41652145151Sales tax refundable117939Cash and bank balance3512023336291594444666871464Total Assets4120985538310244Equity and LiabilitiesShare Capital and ReservesShare capital3233750323375016Reserves2453907921862179172777282925095929Non-Current LiabilitiesLong term finance658298165860018Long term deposits373063195719Deferred liability39183731921720Deferred tax liability165279615628502127402373572624Current LiabilitiesTrade and other payables4043689304332022Accrued mark-up8544815550023Short term borrowing6302252626711224Current portion and 26540017575918long term finances106967899641691Contingencies and Commitment412098553831024425Total Equity and Liabilities

Profit & Loss acLUCKY CEMENT LIMITEDindexProfit and Loss Account20112010(Rupees in '000')NoteGross sales317670532905290126Less: Sales tax and excise duty55455494226459Rebates and commission20398531764957495344544108Net sales2601751924508793Cost of sales-17306400-1652993227Gross profit87111197978861Distribution cost-3236425-343304728Administrative expenses-313389-30324429Finance cost-517788-56918430Other charges-325482-25777431Other income2486190232Profit before taxation43205213417514Taxationcurrent-260175-19569733deferred-89946-84360-350121-280057Profit after taxation39704003137457Other comprehensive incomeTotal comprehensive income for the year39704003137457

Earning per share - basic and diluted12.289.7034

Cash flow state.LUCKY CEMENT LTDindexCash Flow Statement20112010(Rupees in '000')Cash Flow Operating ActivitiesNoteCash flow generated from operations4842927608726735Finance cost paid-587841-647065Income tax paid-156677-164264Gratuity paid-29176-12300-773694-823629Long term deposit43493368Net cash flow from operating activities40735825267006Cash Flows From Investing ActivitiesFixed capital expenditure-1905143-2320832Sale proceeds on disposal of97115879property, plant and equipmentNet cash used in investing activities-1895432-2314953Cash Flows From Financing ActivitiesRepayment of long term finance-910661-2465641Receipt of short term borrowings35140217372Dividends paid-1285056-1281045Net cash used in financing activities-2160577-3529314Net increase/(decrease) in cash & cash equivalents17573-577261Cash & cash equivalents at the beginning of the year333629910890Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the year351202333629

Changes in equityindexLUCKY CEMENT LTDStatement of Charges in Equity

Issued, subscribed & paid up capitalCapital reserveRevenue reservesTotal reservesTotal equityShare premiumGeneral ReserveUnappropriated profit

Rupees in '000'Balance as at June 30, 200932337507343422500000076748002001822223251972Transfer to general reserve5000000-5000000Final dividend at the rate of Rs 4/- per share for the year ended June 30, 2009-1293500-1293500-1293500Total comprehensive income for the year313745731374573137457Balance as at June 30, 2010323375073434221000000045187572186217925095929Transfer to general reserve2500000-2500000Final dividend at the rate of Rs 4/- per share for the year ended June 30, 2010-1293500-1293500-1293500Total comprehensive income for the year397040039704003970400Balance as at June 30, 2011323375073434221250000046956572453907927772829

Note520112010index(Rupees in '000')Property, Plant and EquipmentOperating assets - tangible3056521129465134Capital work-in-progress113994519131213170515631378255

Note 820112010index(Rupees in '000')Stores and SparesStores41884781912626Spares2225765217167264142434084298Less: Provision for slow moving spares1006597601063135844008288

Note 920112010index(Rupees in '000')Stock-in-TradeRaw and packing materials539202315374Work-in-process484692100813Finished goods2246441926261248538608813

Note 1020112010index(Rupees in '000')Trade Debts - considered goodBills receivable - secured406966619776Others - unsecured213995159529620961779305

Note 1120112010inedx(Rupees in '000')Loans And AdvancesConsidered good, securedLoans And Advances due from:Employees55165632Executives59463123114628755Advances to suppliers and others60702777167216486471

Note 1220112010index(Rupees in '000')Trade Deposits and Short Term PaymentsDepositsCoal supplier10001000Utilities730159Karachi Port Trust57403990Containers60Other49084071124389220PrepaymentsInsurance1178516349L/c Margin3454Rent21871717Others122591806726231395873866948807

Note 1320112010index(Rupees in '000')Other Receivables - unsecured, considered goodInland freight subsidry - export135790135790Rebate on export sales4557637865Due from Collector of Customs1944419444Other1807411150218884204249

Note 1520112010index(Rupees in '000')Cash and Bank BalancesCash in hand13301031Slaes collection in transit247146263940

Cash at bank - on current accounts3886922286 - on deosit accounts638574637210272668658351202333629

Note 1620112010index(Rupees in '000')Share CapitalAuthorized Capital500000000 (2010: 500000000) ordinary 50000005000000share of Rs 10/- eachIssued, Subscribed and Paid-up Capital305000000 (2010: 305000000) ordinary shares30500003050000 of Rs 10/- each issued for cash18375000 (2010: 18375000) ordinary shares183750183750 of Rs 10/- each issued as bonus share32337503233750

Note 1720112010inedx(Rupees in '000')ReservesCapital reserveShare premium73434227343422Revenue reservesGeneral reserve1250000010000000Unappropriated profit4695657451875717195657145187572453907921862179

Note 18Long Term Finance - securedindexLong term finance utilized under mark-up arrangement from the following banks: Installments20112010NumberFrom(Rupees in '000')Allied Bank Ltd16 quarterlyOct-105976201135620Allied Bank Ltd16 quarterlyMar-113260786987399236981834359Less: Current portion of long term finance-265400-1757596582981658600

Note 1920112010index(Rupees in '000')Long Term DepositsCement stockists119769727Transporters2400021900Others13303303730631957

Note 2020112010index(Rupees in '000')Deferred LiabilityStaff gratuity391837319217

Present value of defined benefit obligation391837319217

Movement oin the liability recognized in the balance sheet are as follows:

Opening balance319217234633Net charge for the year10179696884421013331517Payments made during the year-29176-12300Closing balance391837319217

The amoutn recognized in the profit and loss account is as follows:

Current service cost5704951754Interest cost4264930502Actuarial (gains)/losses recognized20981462810179696884The charges for the year has been allocated as follows:

Cost of sales7895167155Distribution cost38623884Administrative expenses189832584510179696884

Note 2120112010index(Rupees in '000')Deferred Tax LiabilityThis comprises of the followingDeferred tax liability -Difference in tax and accounting bases of fixed assets32808093351606

Deferred tax assets -Unabsorbed tax losses-1495783-1693176 -Provisions-132230-95850-1628013-178902616527961562580

Note 2220112010index(Rupees in '000')Trade and Other PayablesCreditors1189188920236Bills payable494999254170Accrued liabilities744209617667Advance from customers659047281052Retention money121199373789Sales tax payables61470Other charges payables512491342074Unclaimed and unpaid dividend3452126077Excise duty payable215967228201Others105985440436893043320

Note 2320112010index(Rupees in '000')Accrued Mark-UpLong term finance1840349740Short term borrowings6704510576085448155500

Note 2420112010index

(Rupees in '000')Short Term BorrowingExport refinance3500004732366Foreign currency import finance5952252153474663022526267112

Note 2520112010index(Rupees in '000')CommitmentsCapital commitmentsPlant and machinery304738163325Other commitmentsStores, spares and apcking material under letters of credit13647051960445

Bank guarantees issued on behalf of the company638629672940

Note 2620112010index(Rupees in '000')Sales - grossSales - local2013078514191487 - export11636268148614143176705329052901

Note 2720112010index(Rupees in '000')Cost of SalesSalaries, wages and benefits957453881365Raw material consumed999735959358Packing material18579671472287Fuel and power1094983210131354Store and spares consumed1054096731240Repairs and maintenance8650753675Depreciation14881331327229Insurance73165170692Provision for slow moving spares2464925384Earth moving machinery122346105212Vehicle running & maintenance3174828380Communication104069413Mess:subsidry2064916371Transportation421710459Traveling and conveyance46923740Inspection fee for electrical installation10491049Rent, rates and taxes17081404Printing and stationery26591424Other manufacturing expenses31286409311772229715970967Work-in-process:Opening100813591659Closing-484692-100813-383879490846Cost of good manufactured1733841816461813Finished goods:Opening192626260745Closing-224644-192626-32018681191730640016529932

Note 2820112010index(Rupees in '000')Distribution CostSalaries and benefits4730242490Logistic and related charges30240993233415Loading and others4321628472Communication33773499Travelling and conveyance20182518Printing and stationery855812Insurance748010897Rent, rates and taxes73946537Utilities15651298Vehicles running & maintenance86557002Repairs and maintenance17158597Fees, subscription and periodicals563606Advertisment and sales promotion112629713Entertainment727580Depreciation7206873570Others4129304132364253433047

Note 2920112010index(Rupees in '000')Administrative ExpensesSalaries and benefits124224110914Communication66266503Travelling and conveyance141539353Insurance10501268Rent, rates and taxes27772298Vehicals running and maintenance1110910034Printing and stationery45996731Fees and subscription63097102Security services24231708Legal and professional150978638Transportation and freight67329Utilities46035542Repairs and maintenance67226870Advertisment17411238Donations89822104046Auditor's remuneration14831481Other auditor's remuneration61035279Depreciation1034410197Amortization14911466Others26462247313389303244

Note 3020112010index(Rupees in '000')Finance CostMark-up on long term finance - net4598421280Mark-up on short term borrowings447181510121Interest on Worker's Profit Participation Fund37357196

Bank charges and commission2088830587517788569184

Note 3120112010index(Rupees in '000')Other ChargesWorker's Profits Participation Fund232487184124Others9299573650325482257774

Note 3220112010index(Rupees in '000')Other IncomeIncome from non-financial assets Gain on disposal of fixed assets22111869 Others2753324861902

Note 3420112010indexEaring Per Share - Basic and dilutedProfit after tax (Rupees in '000')39704003137457Weighted average number of ordinary shares (in thousands)323375323375

Earing per share - (rupees)12.289.70

Note 3520112010index(Rupees in '000')Cash Generated From OperationsProfit before taxation43205213417514Adjustments for non cash charges & other items Depreciation15705451410996 Gain on disposal of property, plant & equipment-2211-1869 Provision for slow moving spares2464925384 Provision for gratuity10179696884 Amortization on intangible assets14911466 Finance cost517788569184Profit before working capital changes65345795519559(Increase)/decreasa in current assets Stores and spares-2329945-622123 Stock-in-trade-639725587795 Trade dedts158344487943 Loans and advances143072961 Trade deposits and short term payments10138-39046 Other receivables-14635-125554 Sales tax payable / refundable117939-77777-2683577214199Increase in current liabilities Trade and other payables99192535350948429276087267

Common Size BSLUCKY CEMENT LTDindexBalance Sheet20112010(Rupees in '000')AssetsNon-Current AssetsFixed assetsNoteProperty, plant,and equipment77%82%5Intangible assets0.004%0%677%82%Long term advance0.13%0%7Long term deposit0.01%0%77%0%Current AssetsStore and spares15.3%10%8Stoke-in-trade3.0%2%9Trade debets-considered good1.5%2%10Loan and advances0.2%0%11Trade deposit and0.1%0%12Short term prepaymentsOther receivables0.5%1%13Tax refunds due from Govt.1.3%1%14Taxation-net0.1%0%Sales tax refundable0.0%0%Cash and bank balance0.9%1%1522.9%18%Total Assets100%100%

Equity and LiabilitiesShare Capital and ReservesShare capital8%8%16Reserves60%57%1767%66%Non-Current LiabilitiesLong term finance1.6%4%18Long term deposits0.1%0%19Deferred liability1.0%1%20Deferred tax liability4.0%4%216.6%9%

Current LiabilitiesTrade and other payables10%7%22Accrued mark-up0.2%0%23Short term borrowing15%15%24Current portion and 0.6%0%18long term finances26%23%Contingencies and Commitment100%100%25Total Equity and Liabilities

Common size ISLUCKY CEMENT LIMITEDindexProfit and Loss Account20112010(Rupees in '000')NoteGross sales122%26Less: Sales tax and excise duty21%119%Rebates and commission0.8%17%22%136%Net sales100%100%Cost of sales67%67%27Gross profit33%33%

Distribution cost12%14%28Administrative expenses1.2%1.2%29Finance cost2.0%2.3%30Other charges1.3%1.1%31Other income0.01%0.0%32Profit before taxation17%19%Taxationcurrent1.0%0.8%33deferred0.3%0.3%1.3%1.1%Profit after taxation15%13%Other comprehensive incomeTotal comprehensive income for the year15%13%(Rupees)Earning per share - basic and diluted12.289.7034

Activity RatiosActivity RatiosindexInventory TurnoverCost of Good Sold4.66Average Inventory

Average No. of Days in Inventory36578.34Inventory Turnover

Recievable TurnoverSales9.29Average Trade Recievables

Average No. of Days in Recievable36539.29Recievable Turnover

Payable TurnoverPurchases-1.22Average Account Payable

Average No. of Days in Payables365-298.94Payables TurnoverC.AC.LWorking Capital TurnoverSales-6.47W.C1631593020338480Average Working CapitalAvg. WC-2011275

Fixed Asset TurnoverSales0.21Average Fixed Assets

Total Asset TurnoverSales0.16Average Total Assets

Liquidity Ratios2Liquidity RatiosindexCash Conversion CycleCycleDays of Sale in A/R + Days of Supply in inventory -Days in A/P416.57

Current RatioCurrent Assets0.88Current Liabilities

Quick RatioCash + Marketable Securities+ Account Recievable0.09Current Liabilities

Cash RatioCash + Marketable Securities0.03Current Liabilities

Cashflow from operations RatioCashflow from operations0.38Current Liabilities

Projected ExpenditureCost of Good Sold+ Other operating expenses except depreciation4393084

Defensive Interval365 *(Cash + Marketable Securities+ Account Recievable)81Projected Expenditures

Sol. Ratios3Long term debt and solvency RatiosindexDebt to Total CapitalTotal Debt 33%Total Capital

Debt to EquityTotal Debt48%Total Equity

Times Interest EarnedEBIT8.34Interest Expense

Fixed Charge CoverageEarning before Fixed Charges and Taxes2.27Fixed Charges

Capital Expenditure RatioCash from Operations2.14Capital Expenditures

CFO to DebtCash from Operations0.30Total Debt

Profitability4Profitability Analysisindex

Gross Margin ratioGross Profit0.33Sales

Operating MarginOperating Income0.17Sales

EBIT MarginEBIT0.17Sales

Profit MarginNet Income0.15Sales

Return on AssetsNI0.05Average Total Assets

Return on EquityNI0.038Average Stakeholders Equity

Return on Total CapitalNI0.025Average total capital

Return on SalesNI0.15Sales

Basic EPSEarning availble for Common Shares12.28Weighted average common shares outstanding

Dividend Payout RatioDividends0.33NI

Book Value of Equity per ShareBV of Equity85.88No. of Shares outstanding

CFO per shareCashflow from operations12.60No. of Shares outstanding

Effective Tax RateIncome Tax Expense0.081Pretax Income

Forecast workingForecast workingindex201220112010Current Liabilities in Avg40%41%39%Current Assets Avg.32%36%28%Total non-Current Assets Avg.125%122%128%

Forecasted Balance sheet LUCKY CEMENT LTDindexBalance Sheet2016201520142013201220112010(Rupees in '000')AssetsNon-Current AssetsFixed assetsNoteProperty, plant,and equipment31705156313782555Intangible assets1685297763170684131381232Long term advance55373553737Long term deposit31752175Total Non-Current Assets43907041413609233896245036703063345746943176538931438780Current AssetsStore and spares754251171051306693111630498659393676313584400828867%8Stoke-in-trade14915641405070132359112468381174535124853860881313%9Trade debets-considered good7418306988126582896201155841566209617793056.6%10Loan and advances862118121176502720666788772164864710.8%11Trade deposit and461964351740994386163637738669488070.4%12Short term prepaymentsOther receivables2614892463262320422185862059102188842042492.3%13Tax refunds due from Govt.6436916063645712025380785068765388125388125.7%14Taxation-net4975946874441564159539183416521451510.4%Sales tax refundable0000001179390.0%Cash and bank balance4195633952333723143507243303863512023336293.7%151128281410628536100122009431604888467694444666871464Total Assets55189855519894594897465046134666434593704120985538310244Equity and LiabilitiesShare Capital and ReservesShare capital323375032337503233750323375032337503233750323375016Reserves245390792453907924539079245390792453907924539079218621791727772829277728292777282927772829277728292777282925095929Non-Current LiabilitiesLong term finance658298658298658298658298658298658298165860024%18Long term deposits373063730637306373063730637306319571.4%19Deferred liability39183739183739183739183739183739183731921714%20Deferred tax liability165279616527961652796165279616527961652796156285060%212740237274023727402372740237274023727402373572624Current LiabilitiesTrade and other payables533365650243644733006445854541999994043689304332038%22Accrued mark-up1127071061711000149421488751854481555000.8%23Short term borrowing1056764481854215941340382739118360286302252626711259%24Current portion and 3500653297653106422926282756592654001757592.5%18long term finances1410914513290972125202441179420911110276106967899641691Contingencies and Commitment5518985551989459489746504613466643459370412098553831024425Total Equity and LiabilitiesDifferenceTotal Assets5518985551989459489746504613466643459370Total Equity & Lib.-10567644-8185421-5941340-3827391-1836028

Forecasted ISLUCKY CEMENT LIMITEDindexProfit and Loss Account2016201520142013201220112010(Rupees in '000')NoteGross sales317670532905290126Less: Sales tax and excise duty55455494226459Rebates and commission20398531764957495344544108Net sales35,074,03033,040,12731,124,16829,319,31327,619,1202601751924508793Cost of sales(23,493,139)(22,130,799)(20,847,460)(19,638,539)(18,499,723)-17306400-1652993227Gross profit11,580,89010,909,32810,276,7089,680,7749,119,39787111197978861Distribution cost(4,637,982)(4,369,031)(4,115,676)(3,877,012)(3,652,189)-3236425-343304728Administrative expenses(428,222)(403,390)(379,998)(357,962)(337,204)-313389-30324429Finance cost(2,563,979)(2,415,296)(2,275,236)(2,143,298)(2,019,010)-517788-56918430Other charges(403,838)(380,419)(358,359)(337,578)(318,003)-325482-25777431Other income3,0372,8612,6952,5382,3912486190232Profit before taxation3,549,9073,344,0523,150,1342,967,4612,795,38243205213417514Taxationcurrent213,770201,374189,696178,696168,334-260175-19569733deferred73,90369,61865,58161,77858,195-89946-84360(287,673)(270,991)(255,277)(240,473)(226,529)-350121-2800570.01%Profit after taxation3,262,2343,073,0612,894,8572,726,9882,568,85339704003137457Other comprehensive incomeTotal comprehensive income for the year39704003137457(Rupees)Earning per share - basic and diluted12.289.7034

20112010AverageSales growth rate6% COGS % of Sales66.52%67.44%66.98%Distribution cost % of Sales12%14%13% Administrative expenses % of Sales1.20%1.24%1.22%Finance cost % of Debt7.44%7.18%7.31% Other charges % of Sales1.25%1.05%1.15%Other income % of Sales0.01%0.01%0.01%Profit before Tax % of Taxation8%74%70%72%26%30%28%

RegressionDate LUCky CementKSE 100RERMRFRM-RFindex7-May-13172.6719223.438-May-13174.1419253.860.00851334920.001582964112%-12%9-May-13176.8719437.60.01567704150.009543021512%-11%10-May-13177.0319662.790.00090461920.01158527812%-11%0.142159523713-May-13178.1919918.810.00655256170.013020532712%-11%RM0.012502967414-May-13180.6520230.780.01380548850.015662080212%-10%RM-RF-11%15-May-13178.7420472.38-0.01057293110.01194219912%-11%RF12%16-May-13178.6820582.21-0.00033568310.00536478912%-11%RE10%17-May-13178.1220429.29-0.0031340945-0.007429717212%-13%Engro20-May-13179.220545.280.00606332810.005677632512%-11%Fv4,000,000,00021-May-13181.820820.050.01450892860.013373874712%-11%WD33%Coupon rate14.50%22-May-13182.5821186.080.0042904290.017580649412%-10%WE67%Pmt580,000,00023-May-13179.3121452.42-0.01790995730.01257146212%-11%RE10%Nper124-May-13177.5321312-0.0099269422-0.006545648512%-13%RD6%pv4,250,000,00027-May-13177.4921279.45-0.000225314-0.001527308612%-12%Tax34%Rate7.8%28-May-13180.5120942.320.0170150431-0.015842984712%-14%WACC8%rd13%29-May-13178.221508.52-0.0127970750.027036164112%-9%30-May-13179.221435.820.0056116723-0.003380055912%-12%31-May-13182.3621589.730.01763392860.007180037912%-11%3-Jun-13182.8521823.870.00268699280.010844971212%-11%4-Jun-13185.5522118.130.01476620180.013483401412%-11%5-Jun-13189.8122267.310.02295877120.006744693212%-11%6-Jun-13193.7122102.720.0205468627-0.007391552912%-13%7-Jun-13191.3622282.09-0.01213153680.008115290812%-11%10-Jun-13189.0822367.37-0.01191471570.003827289112%-12%11-Jun-13193.222118.430.0217897186-0.011129605312%-13%12-Jun-13191.122200.65-0.01086956520.00371726212%-12%13-Jun-13200.6322326.840.04986917840.005684067812%-11%14-Jun-13203.6522771.790.01505258440.019928928612%-10%17-Jun-13201.0722545.23-0.0126687945-0.00994915212%-13%18-Jun-13198.5622200.64-0.0124832148-0.015284386112%-14%19-Jun-13206.8622027.020.041800967-0.007820495312%-13%20-Jun-13200.6922127.12-0.02982693610.004544418612%-12%21-Jun-13200.6122005.25-0.0003986247-0.005507720812%-13%24-Jun-13201.3621734.60.0037385973-0.012299337712%-13%25-Jun-13202.9721070.120.0079956297-0.030572451312%-15%26-Jun-13210.6921168.650.03803517760.004676290412%-12%27-Jun-13208.7120942.06-0.0093976933-0.010704036412%-13%28-Jun-13209.7221038.540.00483925060.004606996612%-12%1-Jul-13208.6620986.39-0.0050543582-0.002478784212%-12%2-Jul-13218.0821377.830.04514521230.018652088312%-10%3-Jul-13219.7121652.080.00747432130.012828710912%-11%4-Jul-13220.5821802.860.00395976510.006963765112%-11%5-Jul-13221.721989.740.00507752290.008571352612%-11%8-Jul-13228.8822173.860.03238610740.008372995812%-11%9-Jul-13239.3222377.210.04561342190.009170708212%-11%10-Jul-13247.8522711.890.03564265420.014956288112%-11%11-Jul-13242.7422940.46-0.02061730890.010063891612%-11%12-Jul-13241.6522758.52-0.0044904013-0.007930965612%-13%15-Jul-13234.6523030.08-0.0289675150.011932234612%-11%16-Jul-13232.9823153.23-0.00711698270.005347354412%-11%17-Jul-13225.9223179.87-0.03030303030.001150595412%-12%18-Jul-13228.6122984.740.0119068697-0.0084180812%-13%19-Jul-13230.9123126.510.01006080220.006168005412%-11%22-Jul-13234.3223415.660.01476765840.012502967412%-11%

BetaSUMMARY OUTPUTindexRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.0816294791R Square0.0066633719Adjusted R Square-0.0124392556Standard Error0.0190242751Observations54ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression10.00012624590.00012624590.34881965150.5573403751Residual520.01881999830.000361923Total530.0189462442

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept0.02237409870.02810855410.79598895810.4296573697-0.03402984150.0787780389-0.03402984150.0787780389X Variable 10.14215952370.24069966610.59060955920.5573403751-0.34083969220.6251587396-0.34083969220.6251587396

Forecasted Dividend20162015201420132012indexDividends10002000200020003000Terminal9549.431736454210549.43173645422000200020003000Re=10%NPV$15,837.86