LTE by the Numbers

LTE by the Numbers: A Statistical Analysis of Deployment Plans

Stéphane TéralPrincipal Analyst, Mobile and FMC Infrastructure

Infonetics Research

Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

Key Findings

• LTE continues to move forward; of the 18 service providers we interviewed last month:

• 1/2 are conducting trials

• 17% are already deploying LTE

• The bulk of actual deployments is spread out between 2010 and 2012

• 72% will follow the W-CDMA-to-HSPA+-to-LTE path• This is consistent with last year’s survey’s 81% following

this path


Key Findings continued

• 3 notable differences in this year’s survey (vs. last year’s)• The split between FD and TD LTE

• Only 67% of this year’s respondents will deploy FD LTE only

• 28% will deploy FD LTE first, then complement with TD LTE

• The continuous investment in existing data networks• 44%—up from zero—will continue to invest in more coverage

and functionality with their current technology

• The conclusive voice over LTE migration path• 94% will deploy IMS (VoLTE)

• 56% will also implement circuit-switched fall-back

• 39% will launch voice service over LTE one year from launch


A look at our service provider sample18 service providers worldwide, accounting for 47% of world’s capex, 46% of revenue

• 50% mobile, 39% incumbents, 11% competitive operators 0%5%Central and Latin America

39%23%Asia Pacific

44%54%Europe, Middle East, Africa

17%18%North America

% of Respondents% of LTE

Commitments*Region

* As reported by GSA

• More than 3/4 from 3GPP clan

• 22% from 3GGP2

• Some operate WiMAX networks as well

0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

cdmaOne

Fixed/nomadic or mobileWiMAX

CDMA2000 (1xRTT, 1xEV-DO; xEV-DO Rev A, Rev B)

GSM/GPRS/EDGE

W-CDMA/HSPA/HSPA+

Wire

less

Net

wor

k Ty

pes

Percent of Respondents


56% trial LTE in 2010

• Actual deployments are spread out between 2010 and 2012• 17% are deploying in 2010, down from 25% last year• This is consistent with GSA LTE deployment update from 26 Aug. 2010

• Some initially bullish mobile operators have postponed deployments

0% 20% 40% 60%

Don't know

2013 and beyond

2012

2011

2010

2009Ti

mef

ram

e


Deploy

Trial


72% will follow the HSPA+ to LTE path

• As 78% come from 3GPP, this is no surprise, although the HSPA+ onslaught is recent• Some operators who last year thought they would skip HSPA+ have changed their mind!• Note the CDMA guys and those going straight from GSM

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev A to 1xEV-DO Rev B to LTE

As a greenfield network

GSM to evolved EDGE to LTE

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO directly to LTE

WiMAX 802.16e to LTE

GSM directly to LTE

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev A to LTE

GSM to EDGE to LTE

W-CDMA to HSPA to LTE (skip HSPA+)

W-CDMA to HSPA+ to LTE

LTE

Net

wor

k M

igra

tion

Scen

ario

s



TD-LTE is gaining serious momentum

• Only 67% will deploy FD LTE only, and 28% will deploy FD LTE first, then complement it with TD-LTE• This is in line with China Mobile’s push for TD-LTE and the completion of more

spectrum auction with allocation of both paired and unpaired spectrum as well as the outcome in India

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

FD-LTE in low bands and TD-LTE for capacity

enhancement

TD-LTE first, thencomplemented by FD-LTE

TD-LTE only

FD-LTE first, thencomplemented by TD-LTE

FD-LTE only

LTE

Type

s



Current data networks won’t be replaced

• This reflects the increasing knowledge about LTE, leading progressively to thinking—more realistically—that LTE is not going to cover everything at once• So there is an emerging need to ensure 3G coverage as a fall-back (e.g., HSPA+), and even

a need for EDGE where 3G coverage is inadequate

0% 20% 40% 60%

Continue to invest in more functionality withcurrent technology, but not more coverage

Do not offer cellular data services

Expand current technology by deploying LTEupgradable remote radio heads

Replace current data network with LTE

Keep current data network, but won't invest inmore coverage or functionality with old technology

Continue to invest in more coverage withcurrent technology, but not more functionality

Continue to invest in more functionality andcoverage with current technology

Com

bini

ng L

TE w

ith C

urre

nt C

ellu

lar D

ata

Tech

nolo

gy



IMS will be the preferred voice platform

• And more than half of our respondents will also use the circuit-switched fall-back option to ensure voice service coverage across multiple networks—LTE vs. non LTE areas

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Implement voice over LTE via genericaccess (VoLGA)

Use MSC and SMS legacy, but convertto SIP for delivery over IP RAN

Offer voice softclients on top of data plans

Implement VoIP over 2.5/2.75G/3Gas a first step to full migration

Leave voice on 2G network as longas possible

Implement circuit-switch fall back (CSFB)

Deploy IMS (VoLTE)

Voic

e M

igra

tion-

to-L

TE S

cena

rios



Bottom line• LTE deployments are increasing at a fast pace, and HSPA

keeps building momentum• Paving the way for a broader HSPA+ to LTE migration path

• IMS is the default platform for voice, and 3G networks are going to be more important than ever as a fall-back in areas lacking LTE coverage• This also implies that if 3G coverage is not adequate, there will

be a fall-back to EDGE as it is currently implemented

• Consequently, there is a need to continue to invest in the existing network


Q&A

• Questions?

THANK YOU

Stéphane TéralPrincipal Analyst, Mobile and FMC Infrastructure

+1 [email protected]

www.infonetics.com


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LTE by the Numbers

Technology

td lte

fdlte tdlte

tdlte fdlte

fd lte

lte gsm

lte cdma2000

lte path

lte wimax