LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Hasan Ikhrata

SB 375Conceptual Land Use Scenario

Leonard Transportation Center Forum

Hasan IkhrataExecutive Director

CA Climate Change LegislationThe Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006: Assembly Bill 32

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Passenger vehicles are the largest single source of greenhouse gas emissions in California

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

California AB 32 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Estimates by Measure

Where We Are Headed

CO2 Emissions

• Our existing policies need to be adjusted in order to meet the target and reduce GHGs

• Small changes have big impacts

2

How Senate Bill 375 Addresses GHG Reductions

• Requires regional Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS)

• Includes these three related approaches– Land use planning– Transportation policies– Transportation

investments

1

3

Land Use Planning: What New Strategies Might Work?

• Focus growth around transit areas

• Integrate housing and jobs closer to one another

• Increase the diversity of housing choices region wide

• Reinvestment in existing communities

• Ensure local capacity for mixed use centers of activity

COMPACT DEVELOPMENT

PEOPLE DRIVE

20-40% LESS

SOURCE: GROWING COOLER: EVIDENCE ON URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE, URBAN LAND INSTITUTE, REID EWING, ET AL. 2008

Anticipating the Target

• Statewide reduction5 million metric tons through land use and transportation planning by 2020

• Estimated SCAG portion 2.5 million metric tons

Reaching the TargetHow far can land use planning take us as a region toward meeting the target?

• How can the region absorb expected growth?

• Need to research and test different land use and transportation planning strategies

• Want to partner and collaborate with local governments, subregions, and county transportation commissions in the development of the SCS

• Research effort to test ideas, not a proposed SCS• Started with the adopted growth forecast from the 2008 RTP• Integrated 2008 RTP input and introduced new land use planning

strategies • Evaluated scenarios with a transportation and land use model, then

compared results against the 2008 Adopted RTP Forecast• Considered the strengths and weaknesses

Developing the Conceptual Land Use ScenarioResearch and Analysis

2008 RTP Adopted Growth Forecast

• Developed by the region for the region• Used to compare alternative land use strategies

to reduce the regional GHG reduction target

-2.5

2008 RTP Adopted Growth Forecast Strengths and Weaknesses

• Followed local input• Reflected many local initiatives

• Transportation modeling resulted in the production of 94 million tons of CO2 emissions by 2020

• Jobs/housing imbalance which leads to longer trips• Many separated land uses• Does not meet 2020 target

• Part of 2008 RTP research• Focused on regional jobs-housing balance• Did not follow county or city forecasts

Envision Scenario

-2.5-2.3

Envision ScenarioStrengths and Weaknesses

• Built upon current progressive planning efforts• Improved access to jobs across the region• Significantly reduced carbon emissions• Achieved a 2.3 million metric ton reduction

• Did not follow local plans in some areas –especially stable residential areas

• Some parts of scenario probably not feasible• Not fully vetted during RTP

• Considered the lessons learned from the 2008 RTP Adopted Growth Forecast and Envision Scenario

• Maintained county level forecasts• Maintained city level growth forecasts within 10%• Focused growth around regional and local transit networks

Conceptual Land Use ScenarioMethodology

Started with the regional 2020 transportation network

Focused growth in high intensity areas based on 2006 General Plan designations as well as some vacant lower density areas

Avoided areas of stability: open space and established residential areas

Initially, focused growth around regional rail and rapid bus transit (BRT) and existing urban centers

Established top priority growth areas: rail and BRT transit areas with both land capacity and planned capacity (high intensity General Plan designations)

We expanded the top priority areas significantly by including local bus transit

zAdding local transit quadrupled the top priority areas from 123,000 acres to 534,000 acres and reduced densities

Conceptual Land Use Scenario

• Maintains city and county forecasts for housing and jobs• Focuses growth around transit corridors and stations• Focuses new development in areas with planned capacity

-1.5

-2.5-2.3

Conceptual Land Use Scenario Strengths and Weaknesses

• Results in a reduction of 1.5 million tons of CO2• The modeling and research tells us that it is possible to significantly

reduce GHG through land use strategies• Improved jobs to housing balance and distributed growth

• Requires some new transportation investments• Requires additional TDM strategies• Modeling should take advantage of additional pedestrian and

transit trips• Requires local and regional policy changes• Did not meet the 2.5 MMT target – 60% of the way

SCAG Region2008 RTP Adopted Forecast

I-15I-5

El Centro

Ventura

BreaOntario

Long Beach Hemet

I-10

SCAG Region Conceptual Land Use Scenario

I-15I-5

El Centro

Ventura

BreaOntario

Long Beach Hemet

I-10

Los Angeles County2008 RTP Adopted Forecast

Los Angeles

Santa Monica Brea

I-5

Long Beach

I-405I-10

Compton

Burbank

Los Angeles CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario

Los Angeles

Santa Monica Brea

I-5

Long Beach

I-405I-10

Compton

Burbank

Riverside County2008 RTP Adopted Forecast

I-10

Victorville

San Bernardino

I-15

Temecula

Indio

Corona

Hemet

Riverside CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario

I-10

Victorville

San Bernardino

Temecula

Indio

I-15

Corona

Hemet

Riverside County – Hemet2008 RTP Adopted Forecast

State Highway 74Hemet

State Highway 79

Riverside County – HemetConceptual Land Use Scenario

State Highway 74Hemet

State Highway 79

Compass Blueprint Demonstration ProjectHemet

San Bernardino County2008 Adopted RTP Forecast

Ontario

Victorville

San Bernardino

I-15

I-10I-215

Barstow

Twentynine Palms

San Bernardino CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario

Ontario

Victorville

San Bernardino

I-15

I-10I-215

Barstow

Twentynine Palms

San Bernardino County – Ontario2008 Adopted RTP Forecast

NORTH

Ontario

San Bernardino Fwy

Ontario Fwy

San Bernardino County – OntarioConceptual Land Use Scenario

NORTH

Ontario

San Bernardino Fwy

Ontario Fwy

Compass Blueprint Demonstration ProjectOntario

Conceptual LandUse ScenarioRegional Transportation Indicators

AVG TRIP LENGTH DECREASE 3.7%

GHGREDUCTION 1.5 MMT

DAILY TRANSIT BOARDING INCREASE 2.6%

VMTREDUCTION 2.4%

Conceptual Land Use Scenario PerformanceDifferent Control Assumptions

-2.5-2.3

-1.5

-0.9 -0.8

Lessons Learned

• A balance of nearby jobs and housing is important

• Growth around ALL transit is important

• Mixed use centers and corridors and all kinds of transit are important

• Walkable design is crucialMIXED USE DEVELOPMENT

PEDESTRIAN-ORIENTED STREETSCAPE

This Conceptual Land Use Scenario is Not a Proposal• Pursued this as a research project• Everything will be available online• Data and maps are available to

subregions

SB 375 Timeline

Next Steps• Work sessions• Sharing data and resources• Review by county and city • Communication and outreach• Public workshops