Jurnal EKOSAINS | Vol. II | No. 1 | Maret 2010 75 Low Emissions Energy Development for Global Climate Change Mitigation Armi Susandi Expert Group of Atmospherical Sciences Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesa No. 10 Bandung 40132 Indonesia ([email protected]) Abstract: This paper study on the potential of low-emission energy that can be developed in Indone- sia, which comes from natural resources. This study is considered important as the atten- tion of Indonesia to the increase in carbon emissions from energy and forestry sectors, as well as efforts to mitigate global climate change. Study of low-emission energy potential in this research are to: wind energy, energy mini / micro hydro, solar energy, geothermal energy, and biodiesel energy. Development of low emission energy has not reached the optimal point in the development of energy except the mini / micro hydro, and biodiesel. Development of low-emission energy in the future is expected to reach the target of na- tional energy mix in 2025 through special policy and technology development. Keyword: national energy mix, low-emission energy, the absorption of carbon emissions, the scenario optimization I. Introduction National energy policy aims to guarantee the security of supply (security of sup- ply) of energy in supporting the country's economy which is driving national devel- opment. As a country that many of its in- habitants and have a large area, distribution of development also means equal opportu- nity to obtain sufficient energy. One of the national energy development strategy is to increase diversification of energy with low emissions energy utilization. This is in line with the general policy that prioritizes en- ergy utilization of domestic energy. While energy exports, especially oil and natural gas still plays an important role as a source of national income for national develop- ment. Therefore, the development of renewable energy / low emission becomes very im- portant and urgent to continue to be done. In addition to the national energy supply security interests in maintaining the sus- tainability of development, developing low-emission energy will participate took part in mitigating climate change caused by increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide gases in the atmosphere. As it is known that the burning of fossil fuels as the main source of increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2). Therefore, the de- velopment of low emission renewable en- ergy will be worth double for the national economy and global environment. Indonesia has the potential of low-emis- sion energy that is big enough, but its uti- lization to meet energy needs are still very
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Jurnal EKOSAINS | Vol. II | No. 1 | Maret 2010 75
Low Emissions Energy Development for Global Climate Change Mitigation
Armi SusandiExpert Group of Atmospherical SciencesFaculty of Earth Sciences and Technology
Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesa No. 10 Bandung 40132 Indonesia([email protected])
National energy policy aims to guaranteethe security of supply (security of sup-ply)ofenergyinsupporting thecountry'seconomywhich isdrivingnationaldevel-opment.Asacountrythatmanyofits in-habitantsandhavealargearea,distributionofdevelopmentalsomeansequalopportu-nitytoobtainsufficientenergy.Oneofthenationalenergydevelopmentstrategyistoincreasediversificationofenergywithlowemissionsenergyutilization.Thisisinlinewiththegeneralpolicythatprioritizesen-ergyutilizationofdomesticenergy.Whileenergy exports, especially oil and naturalgasstillplaysanimportantroleasasourceof national income for national develop-ment.
Therefore, the development of renewableenergy / low emission becomes very im-portantandurgenttocontinuetobedone.In addition to the national energy supplysecurity interests in maintaining the sus-tainability of development, developinglow-emissionenergywill participate tookpart in mitigating climate change causedby increasing concentrations of carbondioxide gases in the atmosphere.As it isknownthattheburningoffossilfuelsasthemainsourceofincreasedconcentrationsofcarbon dioxide (CO2).Therefore, the de-velopmentoflowemissionrenewableen-ergywillbeworthdoubleforthenationaleconomyandglobalenvironment.
Indonesia has the potential of low-emis-sionenergythatisbigenough,butitsuti-lizationtomeetenergyneedsarestillvery
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small.Utilizationof lowenergyemissionisstilllimitedcommercialgeothermalandhydropower. The use of commercial bio-mass,energybomassaonlyforhouseholdand industrial wood (cogeneration). ForthatefforttodevelopalternativeenergyinIndonesia'senergystructureisveryimpor-tanttocontinuetobedoneanddeveloped.Somelow-emissionenergywiththepoten-tial tobedevelopedare: (1)windenergy,(2)mini/microhydro,(3)geothermal,(4)biomass,(5)solarenergy,(6)oceanenergy.Inthispaperwewillstudyallthelowen-ergyunlesstheenergyofthesea.
Thispaperwillprovideanassessmentonthelow-energyemissionsinIndonesiathatlaceemissionmitigationofglobalclimatechangewith increasingCO2emissions inthe atmosphere. The next section of thepaper we will describe the carbon emis-sions from energy and forestry sector ofIndonesia. Then on the third sectionwillanalyzethegovernment'spolicyonenergymixby2025.Furthermore,thefourthpartwillexaminethepotentialofIndonesiaandtheemissionoflowenergyabsorptionca-pabilityofcarbonwillbepresentedinthenextsection.Conclusionsandfuturestud-iesintothelastpartofthispaper.
2.CarbonEmissionsProjections in Indo-nesia
Indonesia has large reserves of oil, gas,coal and a significant moment. Existinggas will be in production until the next70 years, in the current production level(EUSAI,2001).Meanwhile,coalwillbe-comethemainstayofenergyfordomesticconsumption in Indonesia (canbe inpro-duction until 500 years into the future inthecurrentproduction level).Meanwhile,oilenergywillonlysurviveinthenext17yearsaftertheyear2000.Indonesia's energy consumption is domi-
natedbyenergyfromfossilfuels,whichisabout3.9quadrillionBritishthermalunits(BTU) or about 95 percent of total en-ergy consumption in Indonesia (DGEED,2000).Oiluptonowdominatetheenergyconsumption of Indonesia, approximately56%of the totalenergy in2000.Further-more, the gas is consumed by 31% andcoalfor8%oftotalenergyconsumptioninIndonesia(IEA,2000).
From Indonesia's energy consumptionlevelabove, theninyear2000, totalCO2emissionsfromIndonesia'senergyrequire-mentisequalto62millionmetrictonsofcarbon,42%isderivedfromtheenergyin-dustry(includingpowerplants),therateofgrowthofCO2fromthissourceissebesat7%peryear(othersourcesthatanaverageof 3.3% per year). Furthermore, 25% oftheindustrialsector,24%ofthetranspor-tation sector, and 9% comes fromhouse-hold (SME-ROI, 1996).According to theMergemodel,emissionsfromprimaryen-ergy consumption in Indonesia amountedto64millionmetrictonsofcarbon(Figure2.1). Carbon emissions from energy sec-tor increasedsubstantiallyuntil it reachesitspeakin2060,emissionsreachedabout158 millions metric tons of carbon. Fur-thermore,theroleofemissionfreeenergy(Susandi,2004)willdominatethenextpe-riodon themarket for Indonesian energytoreplacefossilenergy.At theendof the21stcentury,emissionswilldeclinegradu-ally and reach110millionmetric tonsofcarbon(Figure2.1).
Furthermore,fromtheIndonesianforestrysector also contributed no small amountof emissions, mainly from deforestation.InthereportoftheUNFCCC(SME-ROI,1999) reported that changes in land useanddeforestationactivitieshasresultedinemissionsofupto42millionmetrictonsofcarbonin1994.In2000,themergeofcar-bonemissionsfromdeforestationactivities
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amounted to 42.1 million metric tons ofcarbon(Figure2.2).In2000thedeforesta-tioninIndonesiaisestimatedat2.3millionhaperyear(Sarietal.2001).Furthermore,deforestation activities is expected to in-
creaseandreachedthehighestpointintheyear2030carbonemissionsby56millionmetric tons. After that carbon emissionsfromtheforestrysectorwilldecreasegrad-uallyuntiltheyear2100(Figure2.2).
3.EnergyPotentialLowCarbonEmissionandAbsorption This section will then be assessed andquantifiedprojectionsoflowenergyemis-sionofIndonesiabasedontwoscenarios,iebusinessasusualscenario(scenario)andthe optimization scenario. Optimization
scenario developed here is a function of(1) economic growth (Y), (2) Population(P), and (3) improvement of technology(T).Eachlow-emissionenergythatwillbestudied below is a variation of the abovefunctions and can vary from a low-emis-sion energy with other low-emission en-ergy.While themagnitude (mass)growth
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isafunctionofthevalue/energydatapre-viously.Theapproachusedwasdevelopedwiththeeconometricapproachandthede-termination of the size variable using theprincipleofelasticity.
=
−−−
−
1111 ,,*
t
t
t
t
t
ttt T
TYY
PPfETET (3.1)
where;
tET = Production of low-emission energy (ET) in year t
1−tET = Production of low-emission energy (ET) in year t-1
tP = Population in the year t
1−tP = Population in the year t-1
tY = Economic growth in year t
1−tY = Economic growth in year t-1
tT = Improved technology in year t
1−tT = Improved technology in year t-1
Generalequationusedintheprojectionoflow-emission energy / renewable energy(ET) is a national, as shown in equation(3.1)thefollowing:
Populationgrowthusingtheresultsofthestudypopulationandeconomicgrowth inIndonesia, which was obtained from theresearch Susandi (2004), while technol-ogydevelopmentisafunctionofpercapita
Energy installed capacityofmini /microhydropowerintheyear1998amountedto21MWandan increase in theyear2005amounted to 84 MW. Energy develop-mentsmini/microhydroselectednextisafunctionofpopulationincrement(P)andeconomic growth (Y).The equation usedlow-emissionenergyprojections(scenario)
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be increased as a function of economicgrowth,thenthisscenarioisreferredtoasthescenariooptimization,sothatequation(3.3)becomes:
It is assumed that the business de-velopment of low energy emissionfromthemini/microhydrothroughinvestment and financing policiespatternasproposedinthisstudywill
=
−
−
1)1()( *
t
ttMhtMh Y
YfETET (3.3)
Theprojectiondevelopmentoflowenergyemission from themini /micro hydro as
Seen that the energy micro-mini / mi-crohydro rise to264MW(Off theGrid)or 0.08% of total national energy (target0.1%)withthebasicscenarioin2025andreached413MW(Off theGrid)with theoptimizationscenario(exceeding the tar-get,or1.25%,whilethetargetinthissce-narioamountsto0.216%oratotalof330MW(OfftheGrid)).
While for the scenario optimization withthepatternofinvestmentandfundingsup-
=
−
−
1)1()( *
t
ttAtA Y
YfETET (3.5)
Figure 3.5, shows projections for the ba-sic conditions and optimization of condi-tions.Shownthatwindenergycontributes2.1MW(OfftheGrid)in2025ontheba-sicscenarioandreached2.5MW(Offthe
Grid) in scenario optimization or equal0.014% lower than the target of 0.028%,amountingto5MW(Offgrid),seeFigure3.5.
Based on an econometric model for thedevelopment of geothermal case of Indo-nesia, it is assumed that the developmentof geothermal energy in Indonesia is a
Low Emmisions Energy Development Armi Susandi Low Emmisions Energy Development Armi Susandi
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IEA(InternationalEnergyAgency).,2000.Worldconsumptionofprimaryenergy.In-ternationalEnergyAnnual,WorldEnergyConsumption.Sari,A et al., 2001. Doesmoney growthontress?OpportunitiesandChallengesofForestry CDM in Indonesia, Pelangi, Ja-karta.
SME-ROI(StateMinistryforEnvironment,Republic of Indonesia)., 1996. Indonesia:First National Communication under theUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,Jakarta.
Susandi,A.,2004:TheImpactofInterna-tional Green House Gas Emmisions Re-duction on Indonesia. Report on SystemScience.MaxPlanck Institute forMeteo-rology.Hamburg,Jerman.
Susandi,A.,2005.EmisiKarbondanPo-tensiCDMdariSektorEnergidanKehu-tanan Indonesia. Jurnal Teknik Lingkun-gan,ISSN0854–1957,October2005
Seen that the Indonesian geothermal en-ergywillonlyreach3400MWinthebasescenario.Whilethroughtheoptimizationofthemodelscenarioshowsthatgeothermalenergywillreach3940MW,orcontribute1.6%of the total energymix, lower thanthetargetof3.8%oratotalof9500MW(MineralResources,2005),seeFigure3.3andFigure3.9.
4.References
DESDM.,2005.BluePrintKebijakanPen-gelolaanEnergiNasional2005-2025.De-partemen Energi dan Sumber DayaMin-eral.Indonesia.
DGEED(DirectorateGeneralofElectricityandEnergyDevelopment).,2000:Statistikdan Informasi Ketenagalistrikan dan En-ergi(StatisticsandInformationofElectricPowerandEnergy),Jakarta.
DGEED(DirectorateGeneralofElectric-ityandEnergyDevelopment).,2000.Sta-tistics and Information of Electric PowerandEnergy.Jakarta.
EUSAI (Embassyof theUnitedStatesofAmerica in Indonesia)., 2001. PetroleumReportIndonesia.