LOUISE O. FRESCO Towards sustainable agriculture Louise O. Fresco
Dec 18, 2015
LOUISE O. FRESCO
Towards sustainable agriculture
Louise O. Fresco
LOUISE O. FRESCO
Most Humans have been Hunters and Gatherers
LOUISE O. FRESCO
Agriculture as the basis for urban development, art and
science
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Agriculture is…human activities
transforming solar energy at the earth’s surface into
useful energy through plants and animals
Food chain: “from plant to plate”
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Mixed Farming in the Middle Ages – Duc de Berry
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Potatoes and Andean Tubers imported from the New World after 1492
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Early Mechanisation
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Urbanisation Bombay 15-20 M Inhabitants
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• Human interventions: agroecosystems• Increasing control over nutrients, water
and pathogens• Substituting human and animal labour by
power• Area expansion versus Yield increases
BUT HIGH ECOLOGICAL COSTS
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Environmental DamageDestruction of Rain Forest
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Environmental Damage Salinization
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Water and Agriculture (2030)70 % of All Renewable Water Resources
used in Agriculture
Increase Irrigated Area in Developing Countries by 34%:
• Only 14 % more water to do so• How is this possible?• Changing food habits -> increase water needs• Efficiency (rice vs wheat 2:1; animal feed)• Irrigation efficiency increases from 38 to 42 % • Major regional differences• In many countries > 4% annual efficiency increase needed
LOUISE O. FRESCO
Indicative trends in world food needs
1970 2000 2030
World population 3.9 billion
6 billion
8.3 billion
Available calories per person 2360 2800 3050
Number of hungry people (but Africa declines only from 194 to 183)
915 million
777 million
444 million
Meat consumption per person 10 kg 26 kg 37 kg
Food imports in developing countries
100 M tons
265 M tons
World population annual growth 1970-2000 1.7 %
2000-2030 1.1%
World Food Demand annual growth 1970-2000 2.2%
2000-2030 1.5%
LOUISE O. FRESCOCan we feed 9 bn and fuel the economy
sustainably?
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New Technologies - Precision Agriculture
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New technologies - Tissue culture
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Biotechnology
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Closed System Agriculture
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• Globalisation, Labeling & Consumers • Improve Food Production and Quality
(Animal Proteins and Horticulture)• Novel & Health Foods• Climate Mitigation (CO2, CH4 fix)• Ecosystems Management (Water,
Biodiversity)• Biofuels
Future challenges
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Protest during WTO Meetings in Hong Kong
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WTO Negotiations Geneva
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– Dramatic Increase in Trade Volume– Volume of Agricultural Products Increase – More Trade within Regions– Reduction of Domestic Support to Agriculture and
Export Subsidies – Increased Market Access (Reduced Tariffs but
Technical Barriers Remain)– Trade Liberalisation Continues (Positive Effects on
Consumers)– Labeling (GMO and Fair Trade)
Agricultural Trade: Negotiations Continue
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Quality Control along the Food Chain
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Rice variations
Agriculture and Ecosystem Management. Diversity.Hydrology.Landscape
Variety trial
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New Challenges: Climate and Bio-energy
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Benefits of higher CO2
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Canola (Brassica spp)Biofuel= energy produced directly or indirectly
from biomass
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Sugarcane for Ethanol, Australia
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Figure 4. Biofuel Yields of Ethanol and Biodiesel Feedstock
Ethanol Feedstock Biodiesel Feedstock
Source: Fulton et al.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Barley Wheat Corn SugarBeet
SugarCane
Soybean CastorBeans
SunflowerSeed
Rape-seed
Jatropha Palmoil
Lite
rs P
er
Hect
are
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The Promise of Bio-energy
• Potential ¼-th – 2 times current global primary energy requirements
• Short term : vegetable oils and ethanol from sugar cane , wheat sugar beet (1st generation)
• Coming up: cellulosic ethanol and synthetic diesel (Fisher Tropsch, BTL 2nd generation)– allows for wider range of feedstock – greater reduction in well to wheel CO2-emission per litre of fuel
• Key success factors– costs of production and distribution – Organisation of the value chain
• CSR issues (civilization in the value chain) – Energy and GHG- balance– Competition with food – Bio-diversity, erosion
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Food or Fuel?• Some Price Induced Competition may occur • Biofuel Production from Edible Crops is
limited anyway• Conflict can be avoided by Clever Choice of
Feedstock– MSW and Agricultural Residues – High Yield (Perennial) Crops
• Increased Agricultural Productivity and More Efficient Conversion Processes, will free up Land for Food, Feed and Fuel
• Bio-energy will be complemented by Energy Efficiency and Other Renewables
Revenues from energy farming can boost agricultural productivity and sustainable rural development
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- Ecosystem services (biodiv, water, green space)
- Effects on climate GHG NOx & hydrology (?)
- Contribution to climate mitigation (CO2 fixation and biofuels)
And then: sustainability…
. Definitions (desirabilities)
. Intergenerational
. Social, political and environmental
. Trade offs and substitutions
. Growth, resilience and stability
. Markets & externalities
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• Demand-driven chains are becoming predominant
• Multiformity and differences in interests between sectors is becoming more accepted
• Knowledge and insights in basic processes are becoming predominant
Agriculture in a changing world
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• Farmaceuticals
• Flagrances• Flavours• Flowers
• Fruits• Vegetables
• Food Crops• Fodder
• Fibers• Fuel
• Farmaceuticals
• Flagrances• Flavours• Flowers
• Fruits• Vegetables
• Food Crops• Fodder
• Fibers• Fuel
LOUISE O. FRESCO
A bio-based economy…? Let’s speculate:
• Biotechnology for (new) chemicals and materials – at least in processing steps
• Eco-efficient use of renewable resources as raw materials for the industry
• Bio- energy (ethanol derived from lingo-cellulose, little starch or oil)
• Rural bio-refineries will replace port-based oil refineries
• Recognition of ecological services of agriculture
• Strong links between research, industry, agriculture and civil society
And after 2030?
LOUISE O. FRESCO
Arcimboldo
We are what we eat and what we produce…