Loudoun County Energy Plan Preliminary Findings Competitive Community of the Future

Loudoun County Energy PlanLoudoun County Energy PlanPreliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings

Competitive Community of the FutureCompetitive Community of the Future

Supervisor Andrea McGimseyVirginia Tech

September 24, 2009

© Garforth International llc

The Energy DebateThe Energy Debate

• Energy Independence• Climate Protection• Economic Prosperity


Case of Northern VirginiaCase of Northern Virginia

Greenhouse gas emissions are at approximately 20 metric tons/person of Greenhouse gases (2005)

500,000 new residents moving to Northern Virginia by 2020


The Causes/Sources of GHG EmissionsThe Causes/Sources of GHG Emissions


A Dilemma for Northern Virginia - High Voltage A Dilemma for Northern Virginia - High Voltage Transmission LinesTransmission Lines

http://www.pecva.org/anx/ass/library/145/path_trailco2.pdf


Loudoun County Energy PlanLoudoun County Energy PlanFocus on Overall CompetitivenessFocus on Overall Competitiveness

County Wide Energy Strategy Competitiveness and sustainability Attracting high quality employment Develop new investments in “Green Jobs” 20 Year Roadmap with 30 year horizon

Local/ Global CEP Team to develop CEP Federal Funding Background

Department of Energy Block Grant Award County Energy Plan by Fall 2009

Baseline energy and emissionsSpecific short term “next steps” projectsBroader policy recommendations

Some immediate funds for initial projects

Strive for Global Energy ExcellenceStrive for Global Energy Excellence


Core Team StructureCore Team StructureCreating Competitiveness for the FutureCreating Competitiveness for the Future

Global Perspective – Local ExpertiseGlobal Perspective – Local Expertise

Active support from Dominion Power, Washington Gas and NOVEC


CEP Evolution of BenefitsCEP Evolution of BenefitsFinal Plan Encompasses Multiple DimensionsFinal Plan Encompasses Multiple Dimensions

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 •Community Engagement•Multiple effective initiatives•No changes in policy needed

•Stand alone projects•Fewer but larger initiatives•Minor changes in policy

•Integrated solutions•Neighbourhood sized projects•Significant changes in policy

•Integrated policy and planning•County wide norms•New “business-as-usual”

Success Depends on AllSuccess Depends on All

Base Case

Future Case

CEP

Ben

efits


Insatiable Appetite for EnergyInsatiable Appetite for Energy

Forecast to double by 2030Forecast to double by 2030Source: IIASA / BP / EIA / Eurostat


Energy Productivity Differences Energy Productivity Differences How well does USA spend $1.3 Trillion?How well does USA spend $1.3 Trillion?

*Various US/EU Sources – 2007 sourcesKey to CompetitivenessKey to Competitiveness

Region Population GDP Energy Energy/Capita

Energy/GDP

USA 4.6% 25.9% 20.5% 100 100EU 7.5% 31.1% 15.9% 47 60

Japan 1.9% 8.1% 4.6% 54 67China 20.0% 6.1% 15.0% 17 312India 17.1% 2.0% 4.7% 6 291World 100% 100% 100% 22 81


Perfect Energy Storm Perfect Energy Storm Economic-Security-EnvironmentEconomic-Security-Environment

Growing awareness – Growing OpportunityGrowing awareness – Growing Opportunity

Volatile PricesVolatile Prices AvailAvailability

Climate ChangeClimate Change


Loudoun County Energy Vision Loudoun County Energy Vision (For Discussion)(For Discussion)

Simple - Measurable - Eternal Simple - Measurable - Eternal

“Loudoun County will always have reliable and affordable energy, be energy efficient and reduce

greenhouse gases”


CEP Supports Economic DevelopmentCEP Supports Economic Development(For Discussion)(For Discussion)

Energy Excellence Embedded in County PlansEnergy Excellence Embedded in County Plans

Loudoun County will always have reliable and affordable energy, be energy efficient and reduce greenhouse gases

“Our Vision is to be an innovative, globally competitive economy known for its favorable business environment,

exceptional quality of place and strong sense of community”

Recognized Center for InnovationProsperous Business EnvironmentHigh Quality of PlaceSound Fiscal HealthFavored Visitor DestinationWorld-class Energy Performance


CEP ObjectivesCEP Objectives (For Discussion)(For Discussion)

Loudoun County will have consistently lower energy costs relative to surrounding areas and inbound investors needs

Loudoun County will be recognized as a location of choice for investment in part because of its innovative energy strategy

Loudoun County will be recognized as a Regional-State-National model of competitive energy and climate management

Loudoun County’s greenhouse gas emissions will be among the lowest in the world

All major investments will visibly contribute to meeting the CEP goals

Simple – Measurable - EternalSimple – Measurable - Eternal


CEP Objectives – 2030 TargetsCEP Objectives – 2030 Targets(For Discussion)(For Discussion)

Loudoun County will have consistently lower energy costs relative to surrounding areas and inbound investors needs Energy cost for homes and businesses will be at least 20% less than norms

Loudoun County will be recognized as a location of choice for investment in part because of its innovative energy strategy At least 30% of all inbound investment will cite energy and climate

advantages as a critical deciding factor

Loudoun County will be recognized as a Regional-State-National role model of effective energy and climate management Loudoun will be regularly and positively cited for excellence in implementing

sustained energy productivity gains

Loudoun County’s greenhouse gas emissions will be among the lowest in the world Greenhouse gas per capita will be at least 50% less than the current level

All major investments will visibly contribute to meeting the CEP goals Energy performance design targets will become a normal part of

development planning and approval accompanied by transparency of performance in subsequent operation

Simple – Measurable - EternalSimple – Measurable - Eternal


Loudoun Growth ChallengeLoudoun Growth Challenge6969% Population & 116% Job Growth% Population & 116% Job Growth

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Population

Energy for Building 75,000 new homes added to current 100,000 73 million square feet non-residential to current 69 million Renovation of existing homes and buildings

Fuel for Transportation Mobility of 187,000 more people on already congested roads Commercial transport to support increased population

Sources: (a) U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2000 ; (b) Loudoun County Government, Department of Management and Financial Services, October 2008

Reliable – Clean - Affordable Energy ServicesReliable – Clean - Affordable Energy Services

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Employment


2007 Baseline – Total County and Per Capita 2007 Baseline – Total County and Per Capita Local Energy UseLocal Energy Use

319 Million Btu or 93.5 MWh for each resident319 Million Btu or 93.5 MWh for each resident


2007 Baseline – Total County and Per Capita 2007 Baseline – Total County and Per Capita Local Energy Related Carbon FootprintLocal Energy Related Carbon Footprint

14.9 metric tons for each Resident14.9 metric tons for each Resident


Framework for County Energy PlanFramework for County Energy PlanPrioritized “Loading Order”Prioritized “Loading Order”

Energy efficiency – If you don’t need it don’t use it Efficient existing and new homes and buildings Urban design for transport efficiency Local employment for commuting efficiency

Heat Recovery – It it’s already there – use it Distributed combined heat and power Use existing “waste” heat Structure commercial sites to maximize “waste” heat use

Renewable options – If it makes sense, go carbon free Renewable electricity – Photovoltaic, Wind, Run-of-river Hydro Renewable heat - Solar thermal, biomass, biogas Renewable heat and power – biomass, biogas, waste-to-energy

Energy distribution – Invest where it makes sense Flexible distribution – electricity, gas, heating, cooling, …. Accepts multiple fuels and energy conversion technologies Optimize local / regional investment choices

Integral to all County PlansIntegral to all County Plans


Efficiency of Homes and BuildingsEfficiency of Homes and Buildings(For discussion)(For discussion)

Sector Base Case CEP Case?New Homes and Buildings

State Codes 30% Above Code Efficiency by 2011Plus 1% per year from 2011

Home and Building Renovation and Retrofits

Some consumer actions2.5% renovation rate15% Efficiency Improvement estimated

Engaged community wide consumer actions2.5% renovation rate25% Efficiency improvement expected by 2011Plus 1% per year from 2011

Opportunities for Individual Actions Opportunities for Individual Actions

Efficiency has the potential to meet all of the energy needs of the planned residential and non-residential growth from 2010 to 2040


Efficiency of TransportationEfficiency of Transportation(For discussion)(For discussion)

Sector Base Case CEP Case?

Transportation Limited market for efficient vehiclesDominance individual vehicle

Local employment reduces outbound commutingTransit hubs encourage ridershipDenser Mixed-use walkable neighborhoods Market shift to efficient vehiclesEncourage smaller vehicles

More choices – Lower Costs More choices – Lower Costs

County has the potential to meet all of the community’s transportation energy needs and to halve the per capita fuel consumption and greenhouse gas

emissions from 2010 to 2040


Increase Efficiency of Electricity GenerationIncrease Efficiency of Electricity Generation(For Discussion)(For Discussion)

CHP doubles fuel efficiency Possible implementation approaches

District energy for heating, hot water and cooling to higher density new developments

Make district energy available to existing neighborhoods targeted for revitalization

Evaluate benefits of distributed CHP on single developments larger than 100,000 square feet

Cost and emission reductionsCost and emission reductions

The County has the potential to obtain a high percentage of its heat and electricity needs, as well as reduce peak electricity demand on the grid, through the implementation of clean distributed combined heat and power generation

The County has the potential to obtain a high percentage of its heat and electricity needs, as well as reduce peak electricity demand on the grid, through the implementation of clean distributed combined heat and power generation

The County has the potential to obtain a high percentage of its heat and electricity needs, as well as reduce peak electricity demand on the grid, through the implementation of clean distributed Combined Heat and Power generation


Use of Economically Viable Renewable EnergyUse of Economically Viable Renewable Energy(For Discussion)(For Discussion)

Technology costs dropping Possible implementation approaches:

Deploy about 25 million square feet of Solar PV across the County by 2040.

Add heat and power sources using various bio-fuels developed within the region

Recover available landfill and sewage gas

Flexible fuel options and emission reductionFlexible fuel options and emission reduction

The County has the potential to supply at least 25% of it summer peak cooling demand and a significant portion of its winter heat base load from economically viable renewable sources


Monetizing Monetizing Carbon Emissions ReductionsCarbon Emissions Reductions(For Discussion)(For Discussion)

Possible price range: $10 to $150 / metric ton in next 30 years

County could create 1M to 2M Credits in future years Possible implementation approaches

Identify and track suitable projects at early stage Form an Energy and Environmental Trading Team Define value from environmental and energy assets Develop a priority list of tradable GHG emission reductions

and other tradable environmental assets

Sensible preparation to capture potential value Sensible preparation to capture potential value

The combination of efficiency, district energy, CHP, and renewable energy outlined in the CEP will create significant emissions reductions that have potential trading value


Role of Initial Scale Neighbourhood ProjectsRole of Initial Scale Neighbourhood Projects

CEP Goals Affordable energy Attract investments Improved reliability Reduce city costs

Community outreach and education

Institutional and governance changes

Breakthrough efficiency 30 to 60% less

energy 40 to 80% less GHG

Will they be implemented?

County Energy PlanCounty Energy Plan Efficient BuildingEfficient BuildingScale ImplementationScale Implementation

Effective programmes Energy Star… LEED…

Substantial resources Construction guides Efficient equipment Rebate & incentives Education

Limited penetration < 5% of total new

construction exceeds code

CEP success needs scale Multiple benefits

City, developer, utility… Potential game-changers

High density urban villages Industrial estates Greenfield Smart Growth Sports & Rec Centres Transportation facilities

Multiple in county “Connect the Dots”

Scale A

Scale B

Scale CScale D

Scale E

Projects Closes the Gap

CountyCounty

Accelerates ImplementationAccelerates Implementation


Mulitple Benefits of IntegrationMulitple Benefits of Integration(For Discussion using Local Examples)(For Discussion using Local Examples)

Integrated Energy Solution Increased Core densities Efficient construction District heat and cooling CHP and renewable sources Energy efficiency friendly parking

Residents and Businesses Lifestyle of walkable, mixed-use neighborhood ~ 20% cheaper energy in buildings Reduced transportation costs

Developer Competitive differentiation Construction costs less than 5% above Base Share of GHG credit value

District Energy Service Provider 10 to 13% low risk return on investment Highly positive Net Present Value

Regional Electric Utility 20% grid peak reduction Avoids future distribution investments

Regional Gas Utility Consolidated wholesale customer Avoided costs of retail gas network

Greenhouse gas reductions Homes and – 40% to 58% Buildings – 35% to 44% Transportation – 50% to 70%

Commercially Focused Urban Village Commercially Focused Urban Village

Transit Oriented Urban Village Transit Oriented Urban Village

Example Only

Example Only

Example Only

Example Only


Other Candidate Scale Projects Other Candidate Scale Projects (For Discussion)(For Discussion)

Retail Focused Urban Village Town homes and condos in Smart Growth concept

Continuing Care Community Mixed use residential, social, commercial community Wide-range of services for later life

Transit Commercial and Retail Neighborhood Higher density, close to airport Potential to link energy systems with IAD

University and Community College Campuses Existing and potential new campuses Living example of next generation energy concepts

Data Centers – New and Expansions Two major projects

Sports, Retail and Commercial Mixed Use Neighborhood Business Park and Clean Power Plant

Fully integrated commercial and data centers park Downtown Expansion District

Stepwise extension of walkable downtown neighborhoods Conversion of Commercial Neighborhood to Mixed Use Revitalization of Existing Neighborhood Resort Complex Mixed Employment Park

Assess each for integrated energy benefitsAssess each for integrated energy benefits


Benefits of Winning!Benefits of Winning!Competitiveness - Sustainability - FlexibleCompetitiveness - Sustainability - Flexible

New Relationships – New RulesNew Relationships – New Rules


Suggested DOE EECBG ProjectsSuggested DOE EECBG Projects(For Discussion)(For Discussion)

Project Task Est. $ BenefitEducation & Outreach – Residential (Home Perf. Energy Star)

Owner orientation on energy potential

Up to $250KMatches

Accelerated retrofitsEnhanced contractor skillsEfficiency gains

Education and Outreach – Business (Green Business Challenge)

Management orientation on energy potential

Up to $250KMatches

Peer proliferation of best practicesEnhanced team skillsEfficiency gains

Education and Outreach – Transportation

Fleet Management orientation on energy potential

Up to $250KMatches

Peer proliferation of best practicesEnhanced fleet manager skills

Loudoun Public Schools or County Property

Retrofit integrated energy solution

Up to $1M GrantMatches

Lower costsTeaching platformCommunity example of solution

Selected Scale Project(s)Detailed Integrated Energy Master Plans

Up to $250KMatches

Community example of integrated planning and benefits for mixed-use Scale ProjectsLeverage private funds

Data CenterDetailed Integrated Energy Master Plan

Up to $250KMatches

Business example of IEMP for Green Data Center for new investorsLeverage private funds in implementation

Thank you!Thank you!Supervisor Andrea McGimseySupervisor Andrea McGimsey

Loudoun County, VALoudoun County, VA703-777-0105703-777-0105

[email protected]@loudoun.gov


Copenhagen, DenmarkCopenhagen, DenmarkLong-Term Community Energy PlanLong-Term Community Energy Plan

1973 highlights energy vulnerability Efficiency

Global best practice Pioneered EP labelling Innovation to raise bar

District heating / cooling Systematic expansion Energy zoning River/ocean cooling

Fuel flexibility Multi-fuel cogeneration Coal, oil, gas, biomass Waste-to-Energy Wind generation Solar

Transport Urban design for bike/walking Efficient trams/trains

World class “Green” businesses Energy engineering and services Wind energy District energy Sustainable architecture and construction

Voted 2Voted 2ndnd Most Livable City in the World Most Livable City in the World


MannheimMannheimCommunity and Regional Energy BenchmarkCommunity and Regional Energy Benchmark

Population 350 thousand Home to major industries Energy Efficiency

Building efficiency Industrial efficiency Higher living density Mixed use – Live / Work /Play Multi-modal Transport

Multi-Utility Energy Distribution Electricity District heating and cooling Industrial Steam Natural gas

Multiple energy sources Regional Gas/Electric Grids Power generation heat recovery Bio-mass Waste-to-Energy Wind/solar/geothermal

Public-Private Energy Services

Low cost, clean, technically flexibleLow cost, clean, technically flexible

http://www.eikongraphia.com/wordpress/wp-content/de_ice_t2_lichtenfels01_xxl.jpg

http://www.whispergen.com/main/acwhispergen/index.cfm?parameters

Loudoun County Energy Plan Preliminary Findings Competitive Community of the Future

Documents

energy efficient

affordable energy

baseline energy

county plansloudoun

policy integrated policy

discussionloudoun county

eternal loudoun county

greenhouse gasesour