Long-Term Stratospheric Temperature Time Series for SPARC Temperature Trends Assessment Paper Dian Seidel 12-13 April 2007 Tabard Inn, Washington DC
Long-Term Stratospheric Temperature Time Series for SPARC Temperature Trends Assessment Paper Dian Seidel 12-13 April 2007 Tabard Inn, Washington DC.
Mar 28, 2015
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Long-Term Stratospheric Temperature Time Series for SPARC Temperature Trends
Assessment Paper
Dian Seidel
12-13 April 2007
Tabard Inn, Washington DC
4 Radiosonde Datasets 1958-2005
• RATPAC (large-scale zonal time series, homogeneity adjusted)
• HadAT (gridded, homogeneity adjusted)
• Randel and Wu (RATPAC-based, with further homogeneity adjustments)
• FUB – gridded analyses, 0-90N, no adjustments, available only for 1964-2001
Comparison
• 5 levels (100, 70, 50, 30, and 100-50 hPa)• 16 zonal regions (0-20, 0-30, 0-90, 30-60,30-90,
60-90 for both hemispheres, plus 90S-90N, 20S-20N, and 30S-30N
• Seasonal anomaly time series, normalized to 1965-1985 base period
• Annual difference (from RATPAC) time series• Trends computed for individual time series and
difference series
Summary Points(none too surprising)
• better agreement in NH than SH• better agreement at lower altitudes than higher• generally less cooling in Randel and Wu than RATPAC
(although not in NH extratropics)• HadAT generally cools more than RATPAC, but there
are plenty of exceptions when HadAT cools less• FUB generally cools more than any of the other three• more uncertainty in trends above 100 mb than at 100 mb• annual anomaly differences among datasets can be ± 1
K globally and in NH, ± several K in tropics and SH
100 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC
HadAT2
Randel&Wu
Berlin
EQ-90N
50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC
HadAT2
Randel&Wu
Berlin
30 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2
Randel&Wu
Berlin
100 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu
90S-EQ
50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu
30 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu
100 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu
30S-30N
50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu
30 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
HadAT2 Randel&Wu
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
HadAT2 Randel&Wu
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
HadAT2 Randel&Wu
30S-30N
Trend (K/decade)
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
RATPACHadAT2Randel and WuBerlin (incomplete)
NH
SH
Globe
30N-90N
30S-30N
1958-2005 Stratospheric Temperature Trends
Extra Plots
• Trend comparison for 1965-2001
• Effect of time series normalization on FUB data
• More time series
Trend (K/decade)
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
RATPACHadAT2Randel and WuBerlin
NH
SH
Globe
30N-90N
30S-30N
1965-2001 Stratospheric Temperature Trends
1979-2005 Stratospheric Temperature Trends
Trend (K/decade)
-1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
100
70
50
30
RATPACHadAT2Randel and WuBerlin (incomplete)
NH
SH
Globe
30N-90N
30S-30N
100 hPa - 30-60N
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
NormalizedOriginal
50 hPa - 30-60N
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
NormalizedOriginal
30 hPa - 30-60N
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
NormalizedOriginal
Comparison of original and normalized FUB data. Note - these are 'seasonal' data, but for the original it is just the midseason monthly value.
100 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
90S-90N
70 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
30 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
100-50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
100 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
30S-30N
70 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
30 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
100-50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
100 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
90S-EQ
70 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
30 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
100-50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
100 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
EQ-90N
70 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
30 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
100-50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
100 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
30N-60N
70 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
30 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
100-50 hPa
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
-1
0
1
2
RATPAC HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
Differences from RATPAC
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0HadAT2 Randel&Wu Berlin
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