International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 December 2011 Long term investment planning Developing practical strategic investment planning tools Paul Sayers (Sayers and Partners) Ian Meadowcroft and Adam Baylis (Environment Agency) Jaap Flikweert (Haskoning) Petra Neve and Rob Deakin (Halcrow) A CH2M HILL company
Long term investment planning. Developing practical strategic investment planning tools. Paul Sayers (Sayers and Partners) Ian Meadowcroft and Adam Baylis (Environment Agency) Jaap Flikweert (Haskoning) Petra Neve and Rob Deakin (Halcrow). A CH2M HILL company. Outline. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
Long term investment planning Developing practical strategic investment planning
tools
Paul Sayers (Sayers and Partners)
Ian Meadowcroft and Adam Baylis (Environment Agency)
Jaap Flikweert (Haskoning)
Petra Neve and Rob Deakin (Halcrow)
A CH2M HILL company
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
Outline Looking beyond the UK Floods sector Why a long term investment strategy Providing evidence to support policy
Present day national scale risks Exploring future investment priorities
Next generation supporting tools and data
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
Looking beyond the UK floods sector Increasing interest in large scale, long term investment
planning tools. By countries By sector
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
For example, different countries…..
Uni of South Carolina - Total Place Vulnerability Index Model Uni of Dortmund - Integrated Risk Assessment of Multi
Hazards Model Dutch Ministry of Public Works - Planning Kit Decision Support
System (Water Manager) IHE-UNESCO – Gaming Simulation Tools for River and
Floodplain Management California – FloodSAFE And many others…
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
And sectors…..
Water companies - Tools for Asset Management Plans Insurance sectors – e.g. Munich Re Model - ‘probability of
Based NaFRA/RASP includes a NPV analysis of changes in risk based likely changes associated with a give policy option (deterioration, raising, climate change)
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
Future investment needs
Given• Climate change data from the UKCP09.
h Sea levels are expected to riseh Rivers are set to increase
h Without investmenth Increased risks – about 500,000 additional properties
would be at ‘Significant’ risk of flooding by 2035h 50% of this increase attributable to climate changeh 50% to asset deterioration
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
Future investment needs
So how much should be spent nationally?
Cumulative spend on assets: 2011 to 2035
Developed range of scenarios
Increasing returns up to Scenario 4
Scenario 5 decreased risks but at much higher cost
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
What next….
LTIS has made a significant step forward A national scale investment strategy tool
But… Decision makers now what to: Know more both the spatial and temporal variation in
risks Have greater flexibility to explore policy options that
change over time Include a more comprehensive range of asset
intervention activities (pumps, channel maintenance etc) Make robust choices, minimising regret Understand the potential for wide spread flooding Incorporate all sources of flooding
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
Scoping the next generation of FaCET tools
A route map for the development of the FACET tools is currently being set out: Version 1 (2011/12)
updates based on latest climate and cost information Version 2 - Step change (application in 2013)
Static policy options replaced with Policy Sequences Estimate of the potential third party funding contribution
Spatially coherent events represented.
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
Scoping the next generation of FaCET tools
Version 3 – Step change (2014/15) Recast as an “on the fly” process, where alternatives to
the pre-set policy sequences can be provided by the user and analysed directly.
Provision of national scale automated optimization techniques
Version 4 - Step change (beyond 2014/15) A move to a continuous simulation type approach
enabling the impact of specific interventions to be more reliably represented
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
Conclusions Providing quantified national scale investment strategies
has had a significant impact Supporting better targeting of resources Promoting the need for better data Underlying the need for better decisions, and making
robust choices A progressive programme of development is currently
being scoped
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011
Supporting funders
24
Joint programme – Modelling and Risk TAGFunding and investment team