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1 Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP): Understanding FCF & TSR as key indicators and how we all contribute We choose it all Razón social 00.00.2015 TEF Finance 18 th July 2018
22

Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

Apr 27, 2020

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Page 1: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

1

Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP):Understanding FCF & TSR as key indicators

and how we all contribute

We choose it allRazón social

00.00.2015

TEF Finance

18th July 2018

Page 2: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

22 2

Index

1. THE BASICS – P&L, FCF, BALANCE SHEET and NET DEBT

2. KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS – FCF & TSR

3. UNDERSTANDING TSR and MAIN VALUE DRIVERS

4. ANNEX – PIP/TFSP 2015 PLAN

Page 3: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

33

1.#1: The basics: understanding P&L, FCF,

Balance sheet and Net Debt

Page 4: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

44 4

TEF Group 2017 key financial and operational metrics

TEF FY 2017

€m ReportedReported

y-o-y

Organic

y-o-y

Revenues 52,008 (0.1%) +3.4%

OIBDA 16,187 +7.1% +5.3%

Underlying OIBDA 16,638 +0.7%

OIBDA margin 31.1% +2.1 p.p. +0.6 p.p.

CapEx (ex-spectrum) 8,159 (4.9%)

OpCF (ex-spectrum) 8,027 +22.8% +12.2%

Net Income 3,132 +32.2%

EPS 0.56 +33.9%

FCF 4,947 +13.0%

Total Assets (Balance Sheet) 115,066 (6.9%)

OIBDA excluding extraordinary items (e.g. tower sales, PSI/EREs)

Investment in infrastructure deployments (e.g. FTTX, 3G/4G, service platforms)

& intangible assets (patents, concessions, brand)

Revenues less operational expenses (OpEx)

Reported vs. Organic (organic variations assume no changes in FX and

consolidation perimeter)

OIBDA less Capital Expenditures excluding spectrum costs (CapEx ex-spectrum)

Earnings Per Share is the net income divided by total TEF number of

shares outstanding (it is the profit attributable to each TEF share)

Final profit after tax attributable to TEF’s shareholders

1

2

3

Net Financial Debt 44,230 (9.0%)4

P&L

Revenues, OpEx and CapEx amounts are adjusted considering “cash

criteria” (collection & payments dates)

Total Assets = Total Equity + Total Liabilities

Total debts (short & long term) less cash and other “liquid” assets

Page 5: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

55

Profit & Loss Account (P&L)1

52,008

16,187

6,7913,132

(35,821)

(9,396) (3,418) (241)

OpEx1Financial &

Taxes expenses

Net

Income

OIBDA Minorities

& Others

Depreciation &

Amortization

EBITRevenues

• Broadband Connectivity

• Voice and Access

• Services over connectivity

• Others

39%

39%

12%

10%

• Supplies

• Other operating expenses

• Personnel costs

41%

40%

19%

1. OpEx also include other operating and extraordinary

expenses and capitalized expenses in fixed assets

• Minorities are related to OBs where

TEF does not own a 100% stake

(Germany, Brazil, Colombia, CAM)

€m

• Amount depends on useful life of asset

base and long term should be similar to

annual capex (ongoing business)• Reflects financial cost of our debts and

also accrued tax expenses linked to

profits generated in the year

Page 6: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

66

Free Cash Flow (FCF) – Selected as new KPI to deliver the LTIP

(8,159)(1,726)

(1,005)(783)

16,187

8,027

4,947

Net debt

interest

payment

Tax

payments

Working

capital

OpCF

(ex-spectrum) FCFMinorities,

spectrum &

others

+13.0%

y-o-y

2

• Reflects the annual change in balance in

net working capital (see definition below

and balance sheet on next page)

• Dividend paid to minorities

• Spectrum payments

CURRENT

ASSETS

(EX CASH)

WORKING

CAPITAL

CURRENT

LIABILITIES

(EX ST DEBT)

= -

FCF uses:

• Debt reduction

• Shareholders remuneration (Dividend)

• Share buybacks

• Financial investments

• Others

€m

OIBDA CapEx

(ex-spectrum)

434

• Cash balance generated from all the

collections from clients vs. our

payments to employees and suppliers

Page 7: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

7

Balance sheet3

TOTAL

ASSETS

TOTAL EQUITY &

LIABILITIES

115,066115,066

EQUITY

26,618

NON-CURRENT

LIABILITIES

59,382

NON-CURRENT

ASSETS

95,135

CURRENT

LIABILITIES

29,066

CURRENT

ASSETS

19,931

Net Working Capital

• Equity attributable to TEF´s equity holders

• Non-controlling interests• Property, plant and equipment

• Intangible assets

• Goodwill

• Long term financial assets

• Deferred tax assets

• Inventories

• Trade and other receivables

• Tax receivables

• Short term financial assets

• Cash and cash equivalents

• Long term financial debt

• Non-current trade and other payables

• Deferred tax liabilities

• Long term provisions

• Current trade and other payables

• Current tax payables

• Short term provisions

• Short term financial debt

€m

Page 8: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

8

Net Debt Evolution

48,595

44,230

(4,947)

2,264

(1,269)

(1,000)

696

(109)

FCF Pre-

retirement

commitments

Net Debt

Dec-17

ND/OIBDA

2.95x

Dividend FX & MTM

& Others

-€4.4bn ND/OIBDA

2.66x

Net financial

investments

Hybrid

issue

4

Net Debt

Dec-16

€m

• Remuneration to

TEF shareholders

(€40c/share)

• Hybrids coupons

• Adjustments due to FX changes

in net debt foreign currencies

• Mark-to-market value (MTM) of

derivatives instruments

• Other adjustments

• Cash received

from new

hybrid bonds

• Sale of 40% stake

in Telxius

• Yearly cash payments

from ex employees

(EREs, PSIs, …)

Page 9: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

9

1.#2: Key performance indicators – Free Cash Flow (FCF) & Total Shareholder Return (TSR)

Page 10: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

10 10

Key performance indicators of the Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)

The LTIP will have a total duration of 5 years and will be divided into 3 independent cycles of 3 years each. The first cycle

will be considered as initiated from January 1, 2018 and will end on December 31, 2020

The number of Shares to be delivered at the end of each Plan will be the following:

- 50% of the shares will be delivered when achieving specific target of annual FCF generation

- 50% of the shares will be delivered when achieving a TSR target (total shareholder return) of the Telefónica share in relation to a

defined basket of comparable companies in the sector

50% on a FCF

GENERATION target

50% on ACHIEVING

a TSR goal

A

B

NUMBER of SHARES to be

DELIVERED +

Page 11: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

11 11

Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation target A

KEY PERFORMANCE

INDICATOR (KPI)Free Cash Flow (FCF)

DESCRIPTIONMeasure with a financial KPI – Free Cash Flow according to the formula approved in the Annual Budget. New indicator

included for the new cycles.

DELIVERY

CONDITIONS

FULFILLMENT OF

PREVIOUS CYCLES

Degree of achievement

of the FCF Target

YEAR% FULFILLMENT

(Ex-spectrum)% DELIVERY

2014 88.2% 0%

2015 106.66% 100%

2016 109.50% 100%

2017 99.30% 98.25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Threshold Target Stretch

FCF targets and

awards will be

measured

annually (1/3rd

for each year)

and not over the

3-year cycle

%

delivery

Page 12: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

12 12

Total Shareholder Return (TSR) target B

KEY PERFORMANCE

INDICATOR (KPI)TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN (TSR)

DESCRIPTION

Measure of the total return (with dividends) of Telefonica in relation to a basket of comparables1.

Closest competitors (Weighting): VOD (10%), AMX (10%), DT (10%), BT (10%), ORA (10%), TI (10%) and SWISSCOM (10%)

Other Telcos: TELENOR (5%), TELIA (5%), KPN (5%), TIM BR (5%), BELGACOM (5%) and MILLICOM (5%)

DELIVERY

CONDITIONS

FULFILLMENT OF

PREVIOUS CYCLES

100% 100% 97.8%

0% 0% 0%

77%

0% 0% 0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

%

delivery

The TSR

target has to

be met at the

end of the

3-year cycle

TSR percentile of TEF

over the basket

1. One update against the comparator group used for previous PIP. Oi has been removed from the comparator group and Swisscom adds the 5% weighting so it is now 10%

Page 13: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

1313 13

Telefonica´s relative performance over the PIP cycles

TEF Share Price (€)Trailing 30 weekday

average share price

1. Data as of 09/07/2018

Source: Bloomberg

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

PIP 201277.0% Paid

€9.53

€7.711

PIP 20130% Paid

€10.26

PIP 20140% Paid

€12.11

PIP 20110% Paid

€17.85

PIP 20100% Paid

€15.66

PIP 20090% Paid

€15.41

PIP 2006100% Paid

€12.83

PIP 200897.8% Paid

€17.74

PIP 2007100% Paid

€16.54

PIP 2015Currently 0%

€11.80

Page 14: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

1414

1.#3: TSR and main value drivers –

Fundamentals and sustainability matter most

Page 15: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

1515 15

Key drivers of Total Shareholder Return (TSR)

FREE CASH FLOW USE

NET DEBT variation

NUMBER OF SHARES change

DIVIDEND payment

TSR

Share Price

appreciation

Dividend yield

Key drivers that explain TSR

CF

F

S

REVENUE growth

OpCF MARGIN improvement

FUNDAMENTALS

SUSTAINABILITY

VALUATION MULTIPLE change

TSR Formula

Page 16: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

1616 16

Long term fundamentals are the key drivers of TSR but portfolio and

financing decisions plus macro also matter …

FUNDAMENTALS SUSTAINABILITY FREE CASH FLOW USE

DEBT SHARES DIVIDEND

ASSET divestituresB

Δ FX (local vs €)E

ASSET purchasesA ?(depends on price)

?(depends on price)

Δ INTEREST RATESF

DIVIDEND payment D

C Δ EQUITY (# shares)

Positive Contribution to TSR

Negative Contribution to TSR

F S CF

(higher revenues) (financed with debt and/or equity)

(lower revenues) (cash lowers debt)

(buybacks vs new issues)

(€ lower vs. € higher)

(lower or higher)

(€ lower vs. € higher)

(cash dividend)

Page 17: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

1717 17

Telefonica – key historical consensus figures (2009-2018) OpCF Margin – OpCF 2009-181Revenues 2009-181

EV 2009-181

Δ 1Y FWD

(€ Bn)+6.3 -0.7 -1.4 -5.9 -2.1 -6.3 -0.8

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

+5.0 -1.4

1Y FWD

2Y FWD 2Y vs. 1Y +0.3%

1Y LTM -5.2%

Δ 1Y FWD

(€ Bn)-0.1 -1.6 -2.1 -1.0 -1.4 -1.8 +0.3

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

+0.9 -0.6

OpCF 1Y LTM

-6.9%

OpCF 2Y vs. 1Y

+7.3%

Mg. LTM

-0.3 p.p

OpCF MgOpCF 1Y FWD OpCF 2Y FWD(€ Bn)(€ Bn)

Δ 1Y FWD

(€ Bn)-0.9 -12.5 -20.0 +4.1 +3.9 -7.8 +4.9

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-3.9 -2.3

45.0

96.7

40.1

7.5

4.1

(€ Bn)

Mkt CapNet Emp

Comm.

Net Debt(1Y FWD)

EV Hybrids

Source: Bloomberg1. Data as of 09/07/2018

Δ yoy

EV/OpCF+0.0x +0.1x -0.2x +1.2x +2.0x +1.9x -0.9x-0.9x

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

+0.6x

Min. 7.4x (Feb-09)

Max. 15.0x (Nov-15)1Y LTM

Avg. 10.5x

0.0x

12.4xJul-18

EV/OpCF 2009-181

Page 18: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

1818 18

From a valuation perspective, improving long term OpCF growth is a

must to increase our valuation and share price

ENTERPRISE

VALUE= NET DEBT-

• Financing and

CAPITAL

STRUCTURE

• Active PORTFOLIO

MANAGEMENT

EQUITY VALUE=

• Total

NUMBER of

SHARES

FUNDAMENTALS

• REVENUES

• EBITDA margin

• CAPEX intensity

• OpCF margin

SUSTAINABILITYX

• INTEREST RATES

• GDP growth

• EXPECTATIONS of

long term OpCF

MULTIPLIER

EFFECT

€ 96.7 bn

Net Debt + Hybrids +

Employee Commit.

€ 56.6 bn € 40.1 bn

€ 7.711 / share

OpCF

€ 7.8 bn

EV / OpCF

12.4x

1. Bloomberg as of 09/07/2018

2. EV uses 1Y FWD consensus net debt and it is adjusted for hybrids and net employee commitments

Page 19: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

1919 19

Summary of key takeaways

Financial statements are crucial for company management and investors

Strong fundamentals (measured as OpCF long term sustainability) are the critical

driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR)

Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact

on TSR but also increases investors’ confidence on TEF’s share performance

From a valuation perspective, short term growth and margin improvement matter

less than long term OpCF sustainability

Page 20: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

2020

1.#4: Annex:

2.PIP/TFSP 2015 plan

Page 21: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases

2121 21

Current status of PIP/TFSP 2015 Plan as of July 15th, 2017PIP/TFSP 2015

Page 22: Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP)...driver of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) Delivering or exceeding our FCF generation target has not only a positive impact on TSR but also increases