LONG TERM ENERGY POLICY DOCUMENTS

LONG TERM ENERGY POLICY DOCUMENTS

Draft ofEnergy policy of Poland

until 2040 (PEP2040)

Draft ofNational Energy and Climate Plan for the years 2021-2030

(NECP)

8 Directions

5 Pillars

national regulations EU regulations

PEP2040 INDICATORS

60% SHARE OF COAL IN

ELECTRICITY

PRODUCTION IN 2030

21% RES IN GROSS

FINAL ENERGY

CONSUMPTION IN

2030

LAUNCH OF NUCLEAR

ENERGY IN 2033

30% REDUCTION OF CO2 EMISSION BY 2030 (COMPARED TO THE YEAR 1990)

LAUNCHING OF NUCLEAR

ENERGY FROM 2033

INCREASE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY up to 23% BY 2030 (IN CONNECTION TO THE PRIMARY ENERGY FORECAST OF 2007

THE OBJECTIVE OF THE POLISH ENERGY POLICY IS:

TO PROVIDE ENERGY SECURITY, WHILE ENSURING COMPETITIVENESS OF THE ECONOMY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND REDUCTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ENERGY SECTOR AND WITH OPTIMUM USE OF POLAND’S DOMESTIC ENERGY RESOURCES

ENERGY SECURITY

COMPETITIVENESS AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY

REDUCTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS OF ENERGY POLICY OF POLAND UNTIL 2040

Optimal useof domestic

energyresources

Development of renewable energy

sources

Diversification of natural gas and oil

supply and development of infrastructure

Development of heating and

cogeneration

Development of electricity

generation and tranmission

infrastructure

Development of energy markets

Launch of nuclear energy

Improvingenergy

efficiency

COAL

OPTIMAL USE OF DOMESTIC ENERGY RESOURCES

• SECTOR PROFITABILITY AND INNOVATIONS IN COAL SECTOR

• RATIONAL EXPLOITATION, UTILIZATION AND DISTRIBUTION OF COAL

• EXPLORATION OF NEW DOMESTIC DEPOSITS OF NATULAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL

• DIVERSIFIED SUPPLIES, ROUTES AND DIRECTIONS OF NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL

NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL

DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY AND TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE

LIMIT of COAL SHAREIN ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION until 2030 up to 60%

FIRST NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN 2033

INCREASING ROLE OF RES (off shorewind and PV)

NATURAL GAS MAINLY as balancing CAPACITY

• EXPANSION OF THE TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION GRIDS

• SECURE CROSS-BORDER CONNECTIONS• HIGHER QUALITY OF ENERGY DISTRIBUTION• EFFECTIVE MEASURES IN EMERGENCY

SITUATIONS• DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY STORAGE• DEVELOPMENT OF SMART GRIDS

TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE

STABLE SUPPLY OF ELECTRICITY

DIVERSIFICATION OF NATURAL GAS AND OIL SUPPLY AND DEVELOPMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE

NATURAL GAS

• ABILITY TO RECEIVE IMPORTS (BALTIC PIPE, LNG TERMINAL)

• EFFICIENT CROSS-BORDER INTERCONNECTRS

• DEVELOPMENT OF GAS TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION AND STORAGE INFRASTRUCTURE

CRUDE OIL AND LIQUID FUELS

• DEVELOPMENT OF CRUDE OIL AND LIQUID FUEL TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE AND STORAGE

STABLE SUPPLY OF NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL

FOR END-USERS

DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY MARKETS

ELECTRICITY

• STRENGTHENING THE ACTIVE CONSUMER’S POSITION AND ROLE OF PROSUMERS

• DEVELOPMENT OF DEMAND SIDE RESPONSE (DSR)

• ADJUSTING THE ELECTRICITY DEMAND CURVE FOR MORE EFFICIENT GENERATION USEPETROLEUM PRODUCTS

• OPTIMIAL OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE • BIGGER ROLE OF

BIOCOMPONENTS, ALTERNATIVE FUELS, E-MOBILITY

NATURAL GAS

• MARKET LIBERALIZATION• POLAND AS A REGIONAL TRADE

CENTRE (GAS HUB)• NEW SEGMENTS FOR GAS USE

FULLY COMPETITIVE MARKET

DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

ABILITY TO BALANCE RES

DEVELOPMENT OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATION, ENERGY CLUSTERS AND ENERGY COOPERATIVES

IN HEATING AND COOLING: 1-1.3 PP. ANNUAL INCREASE

IN TRANSPORT: 10% RES IN 2020 AND 14% IN 2030

IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION –PV GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF OFF-SHORE WIND ENERGY

INCENTIVES FOR DISPATCHABLE RES

RATIONAL USE OF RENEWABLES (IN PARTICULAR BIOMASS AND NON-AGRICULTURAL WASTES)

21% RES IN GROSS FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPION IN 2030

LAUNCH OF NUCLEAR ENERGY

• FIRST NUCLAR UNIT WITH CAPACITY OF 1-1.5 GW BY 2033

• 6 NUCLEAR UNITS BY 2043 (TOTAL 6-9 GW)

• ENSURING FORMAL, LEGAL AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

FOR THE CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION OF NUCLEAR

ENERGY

• DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN RESOURCES

• EFFECTIVE NUCLEAR REGULATORY SYSTEM

CLEAN, SAFE AND STABLE ENERGY FOR DECADES

DEVELOPMENT OF HEATING AND COGENERATION

DEVELOPMENT OF DISTRICT HEATING

• DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE HEAT AND COOLING SUPPLY SYSTEMS (INCREASED USE OF HIGH-EFFICIENT CHP, RENEWABLES AND WASTE)

• COMPETITIVENESS OF DISTRICT HEATING COMPARED TO INDIVIDUAL HEATING

• MORE CUSTOMERS CONNECTED TO THE DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS

CLEANER INDIVIDUAL HEATING

• DECREASING THE USE OF SOLID FUELS• INCREASING ROLE OF LOW-EMISSION

FUELS (GAS, NON-COMBUSTIBLE RES, ELECTRICITY

• EFFECTIVE MONITORING OF POLLUTION

LOW-EMISSION HEAT GENERATION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL

IMPROVING ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF THE ECONOMY

IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS OF CITIZENS

LEADING ROLE OF PUBLIC SECTOR

LEGAL AND FINANCIAL INCENTIVES FOR PRO-EFFICIENCY ACTIONS

INTENSIVE THERMOMODERNIZATION OF HOUSES

IMPROVING AIR QUALITY (E-MOBILITY, DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS)

REDUCTION OF ENERGY POVERTY

23% ENERGY SAVING BY 2030

INSTALLED NET ELECTRICITY CAPACITY BY TECHNOLOGY IN YEARS: 2017, 2030, 2040

43 GW

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL IN YEARS: 2017, 2030, 2040

170 TWh 222 TWh197 TWh

Average emission intensity of electricity production by 2040

The implementation of PEP 2040 will

result in a decrease in the emissivity

of electricity production

Energy Policy from the EuropeanUnion’s perspective

Poland’s energy mix vs. the EU ambitions: Coal-based electricity generation Transformation is continued since late 90’s Relatively high ratio of energy import independence Shifting towards less emission fuels (gas, nuclear, RES)

Energy Policy of the EU

Energy policy EU is strongly related to Climate issues

Energy and climat policy is described in:

Long Term Strategy by European Commission Comunication: A clean planet for all , Nov. 2018 [COM (2018) 773] final (vission on 2050)

Today’s Energy and climate policy tools : Directives and regulations of ”winter package”, agreed in 2018

and 2019 (goals for 2030), incl. National Ener.& Climate Plans EU ETS agreed in 2018

Main goals from „winter package”

Energy savings: 32,5 % in 2030 (related to assumptions from 2005)

Renewable Energy’s share in EU energy mix in 2030: 32 %

Electricity grid connections between Member States: 70% offered for cross-border trade

The energy policy is influencing the national energy polices of allMS: actions toward reduction of GHG emissions, development of RES, increase of Energy efficiency, etc…

Legislative tool: National energy and climate plans (finalisation willbe done by end of 2019)

Long term strategy (2050)

Corresponds to Paris agreement How to achieve GHG emissions neutral Europe in 2050, limit

temperature growth to 1,5C to 2050 The goal and tools are not agreed yet (estimated agreement to be

reached by European Council in Dec. 2019) The ambitious goals lead to eliminate fossil fuels (coal and gas) from

Energy mix and replace them by RES, nuclear, energy storage(hydrogen utilisation, captured CO2 and produced by biofuels)

Exsisting fossil based electricity sources will be allowed only ifequipped with CCS

Huge costs related; for Poland estimations show 210 bln euro,

Additional pathways for the transitionto net-zero GHG emission economy

Baseline scenario is not sufficient to achieve emission neutraleconomy by 2050; therefore needed aditional actions:

1. Maximisation of benefits from energy efficiency2. Maxmise deployment of RES and electrification3. Clean, safe and network besed transport4. Competitive EU industry and circular economy5. Develop an adequate, smart infrastructure and interconnections6. Reap the full benefits of bio-economy and create carbon sinks7. Tackle remaining CO2 emissions with CCS

GHG emissions trajectory in a 1.5°C scenario

MtC

O2eq

MtC

O2eq

Non-CO2 other

Non-CO2 Agriculture

Residential

Tertiary

Transport

Industry

Power

Carbon Removal Technologies

LULUCF

Net emissions

Different zero GHG pathways lead to different levels of remaining emissions and

absorption of GHG emissions

Source: EC Communication A clean planet for all , 28 Nov. 2018

Costs, financing challanges of the energy transition

Today the EU invest 2% GDP in innovation of energy system and infrastructure

In order to meet net-zero emission economy must be invested GDP 2,8 %, i.e. 520-575 bilion euro per year (175-290 bln euro/y additionally comparedto basline scenario)

Healthcare costs can be saved 200 bln euro/year

Vast majority financed by private business and households Regions highly related to oil, coal, and gas extraction as well as energy

intensive industry will be influenced by energy transition Just transition is a chalanege for the EU and member states affected

Share of employmentfossil fuel extraction and mining

Share of employmentenergy intensive industries and

automotive manufacturing

<0.1%

0.1-0.5%

0.5-1.0%

1.0-2.0%

>2.0%

<0.1%

0.1-1.0%

1.0-2.5%

2.5-5.0%

>5.0%

Source: EC Communication A clean planet for all , 28 Nov. 2018

Thank you