Long Term Analysis : FOREX · 2020. 1. 10. · The Lagging Span broke its Kijun and Tenkan and the Andrews' pitchfork median line, validating a bearish signal but mind the "wall"

P1

Karen Péloille

M1/2020

Long Term Analysis :

A great uncertainty remains about

- statistically speaking (but what are the statistics worth in

elections are bullish for this currency.

- what will be the consequence of the signing of the China

- will this currency be a safe haven in the event of a crisis in the Middle East which see

taking shape?

Regarding the British Pound, I would rather lean towards

01/31.

From my point of view, I remain

positions on the Forex.

Updates on Twitter @KarenPeloille

Long Term Analysis : FOREXJanuary 2020

about the evolution of the US Dollar:

statistically speaking (but what are the statistics worth in current markets ???) the years of US

elections are bullish for this currency.

what will be the consequence of the signing of the China-US trade deal on 01/15?

will this currency be a safe haven in the event of a crisis in the Middle East which see

the British Pound, I would rather lean towards a rise following the activation of Brexit on

From my point of view, I remain "wait-and-see" in this month of January before taking possible LT

Ichimoku Market Analysis

FOREX

current markets ???) the years of US

on 01/15?

will this currency be a safe haven in the event of a crisis in the Middle East which seems to be

following the activation of Brexit on

in this month of January before taking possible LT

Karen Péloille

Updates on sur Twitter @KarenPeloille


P2

M1/2020

DXY - Yearly

"The question is therefore whether the index retries this break or returns to test the Tenkan at 88.33" >> the index broke again this Kijun but closed 2019 just below. No clear signal > a 3rd attempt for 2020 with a 3rd blue candle is possible as well as a return to the Tenkan ....

Karen Péloille



P3

M1/2020

DXY - Quarterly

On this lower Time frame we will watch closely the SSB at 96.17 which could support the bearish Q4 2019 move which could then only be a breakout test. Or the correction could be deeper and fall towards the Tenkan at 93.74, a level also corresponding to the SSA under the Lagging Span. In any condition if the US index is to remain bullish it must in no case break the Kijun at 91.3725.

Karen Péloille



P4

M1/2020

DXY - Monthly

The Dollar Index closed December on the Kijun level (left) but entered the thick cloud. The Lagging Span broke its Kijun and Tenkan and the Andrews' pitchfork median line, validating a bearish signal but mind the "wall" of prices as next support where the index will meet the lower limit of this pitchfork on the same level. I expect a rebound either on the current level or on the median line with a pullback towards the SSA. Should the Lagging Span break back its median line plus Kijun then the next target expected could be the intermediate median line plus the trendline.

Karen Péloille



P5

M1/2020

EURUSD - Yearly

This pair closed 2019 below the bullish support trendline > 1) a pullback towards 1.14155 could be considered early 2020 if the USD continues its bearish correction. 2) the fall keeps moving on with a 3rd red candle with the cloud SSA as target on the same level as the low point of the 2019 candle or even lower, namely the SSB at 1.0489. 3) bearish invalidation on breakout of 1.14155 with the Kijun at 1.21325 as an ambitious annual target ... which would require a strongly bearish USD, which I do not consider for the moment. Statistically the USD is bullish in the US election year ... and if the Fed does not cut rates, the USD has little reason to drop significantly. This is theory thinking of course ...

Karen Péloille



P6

M1/2020

EURUSD - Quarterly

This pair closed 2019 just above the uptrend support trendline > confirmation is required. If so, the primary target is still at 1.14155. Note the Lagging Span which barely bounced off its SSB. If it breaks it down, then the potential target could be 1.0489.

Karen Péloille



P7

M1/2020

EURUSD - Monthly

This time frame gives an important technical information on the break of the support trend line> a thick cloud is in resistance and prices have already tested it. Note also the Lagging Span which stumbled on its Kijun. A bullish move towards 1.14155 could therefore only occur if the Lagging Span breaks its Kijun + Tenkan in reinforcement and prices penetrate the cloud. A third blue candle is therefore possible under these conditions alone. Conversely, if the cloud acts as resistance, prices could then invalidate this bullish breakout.

Karen Péloille



P8

M1/2020

GBPUSD - Yearly

This pair remains technically bearish while under its Kijun and Tenkan. However, the presence of a possible triple bottom may suggest a bullish continuation towards the Tenkan at 1.4506. It's difficult to predict on this pair move between an unclear trend on the USD and the consequence of the activation of Brexit in late January on the GBP. For me, these two currencies should be bullish > which one of the two will be stronger ? this is what will give the trend on this pair.

Karen Péloille



P9

M1/2020

GBPUSD - Quarterly

The Q4 2019 close was done with a magnificent bullish candle just above the Tenkan. However I remain cautious on this movement which was mainly due to a strong fall in the USD at the end of the year. But it is also possible to consider a double bottom. We will therefore watch closely the Tenkan at 1.31675 > as long as prices remain above it, the bullish target will then be the Kijun at 1.4506. Should the Tenkan act as resistance, prices could then pullback towards the support trendline.

Karen Péloille



P10

M1/2020

GBPUSD - Monthly

Same scenario as the EURUSD pair with a thick cloud as resistance above prices. The breakout of the Kijun at the end of December, which gave a bullish signal, must therefore be put into perspective and above all confirmed. The Lagging Span stumbled on a candle and will meet the same situation in January with the next candle. The key level to watch is at 1.31675.

Karen Péloille



P11

M1/2020

AUDUSD - Yearly

Doji at the end of 2019> no trend> complete neutrality.

Karen Péloille



P12

M1/2020

AUDUSD - Quarterly

The pair did not manage to test the major support at 0.6495 and rebounded in Q4 2019> correction or end of the decline? Complete neutrality between 0.6495 as support and the Tenkan at 0.74035 as resistance > possible target should prices keep moving upwards.

Karen Péloille



P13

M1/2020

AUDUSD - Monthly

The Tenkan breakout suggests the possibility of a correction towards the Kijun at 0.74035 = quarterly Tenkan. But this break due to the reasons mentioned above is to be confirmed.

Karen Péloille



P14

M1/2020

USDJPY- Yearly

Still neutral between the Tenkan at 100.715 and the Kijun at 111.6.

(Chart capture on 01/03)

Karen Péloille



P15

M1/2020

USDJPY - Quarterly

The pair is stuck between 111.6 and the SSB doubled by the support trend line.

Karen Péloille



P16

M1/2020

USDJPY - Monthly

The monthly Kijun breakout at 109.5 could leave the possibility of the twist breakout but note that it is blocked by a downward trendline ... I would rather consider a fall initiated by the January candle which currently breaks the Tenkan.

Karen Péloille



P17

M1/2020

USDCAD - Yearly

(Chart capture on 01/03)

Double support between 1.28636 and 1.2622 on each side of a thin cloud. The Lagging Span is under its prices with a double support at 1.28636 and 1.26945. Two possibilities : 1) prices rebound in this area 2) breakdown of this area.

Karen Péloille



P18

M1/2020

USDCAD - Quarterly

The Tenkan as support at 1.29557 is to be watched closely > rebound or breakdown? In the latter case, the bearish target would be the SSB at 1.2622 and the Kijun at 1.24805.

Karen Péloille



P19

M1/2020

USDCAD - Monthly

The quarterly Tenkan seen previously corresponds to the monthly Kijun. The breakdown of this level would therefore give a bearish signal. Beware, however, of the Tenkan as support under the Lagging Span. Bounce or bearish break? the pair remains neutral as long as prices are inside the cloud.

Karen Péloille



P20

M1/2020

Disclaimer

The main purpose of the analysis presented in this document is to lay out markets situations by finding out key levels to be watch closely for the week ahead. Fundamentals information is not taken into account. The information provided herein represents my personal opinion about markets possible future movements, mainly based upon the Ichimoku market reading system. Trading strategies are suggested with invalidation levels but they are not investment advices. The markets' key points put forward are only set out to help each trader build his own trading plan regarding his personal objectives and money management. I shouldn't be held responsible for the misuse of this report.

© Karen Péloille - 2020 All rights of reproduction, translation and adaptation reserved for all countries.

Long Term Analysis : FOREX · 2020. 1. 10. · The Lagging Span broke its Kijun and Tenkan and the Andrews' pitchfork median line, validating a bearish signal but mind the "wall"

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