Local nuclear war, global starvation Brian Toon © 2009 Scientific American
Jan 17, 2016
Local nuclear war, global starvation Brian Toon
© 2009 Scientific American Inc
New nuclear states continue to appear
Even small nuclear states can have manywarheads
NWSDeFactoIsrael, 116 (102-130)
Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998
South Africa 7, dismantled 1989, 1979?
North Korea, 10?, 2007
India, 85 (65-110), 1974, 1998
Destructive power of nuclear weapons:
Hiroshima, ground zero
Fires in Hiroshima after the atomic blast
Fire storm in Hiroshima about three hours after the explosionhttp://www.atomicarchive.com
An oily, sooty, radioactive “black rain” fell on Hiroshima after the explosion
Smoke is observed to go into the upper troposphere after large fires
The Chisholm (Alberta) PyroCb
28 May 2001Fromm & Servranckx, (GRL, 2003)
Soot Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons
Smoke injected into upper troposphere from regional conflict rapidly spreads
Global climate change unprecedented in recorded human history
Mann et al.,, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 759 (1999); http://www.cru.uae.ac.uk/cru/data.temperature
Temperature decline following regional nuclear war exceeds temperature changes
during the last 1000 years
Year
Northern Hemisphere Growing Season Shortened by up to 1 Month
Precipitation drops 10% globally, more locally
60
40
20
0
Alt
itu
de,
km
Stratospheric Temperatures Increase
Global ozone loss following a regional war creates a near global ozone hole.
Mills et al. PNAS, 2008
SummaryA regional nuclear war would:
• Reduce temperatures to lowest levels in 1000 years and shorten growing seasons at midlatitudes
• Reduce rainfall in the tropics
• Destroy the ozone layer at mid- and high latitudes
• Erupted April 1815• -0.7 degrees C temperature drop• Dramatic shortening of growing season
Tambora Volcano
Chronic Malnutrition Today
• 1,800-2,200 calories•minimum daily requirement
• 800 million people at or below•this level of daily intake
Great Bengal Famine of 1943
• Food production declined only 5%• Actually 13% higher than 1941
•when there was no famine• 3 million people died
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War
1 billion deadfrom starvation
alone?
Epidemic Disease• Plague• Cholera• Malaria• Typhus
…further use of nuclear weapons?
Nuclear Warheads peaked in 1986
R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, (2009).
Smoke generated by weapons of 100 kt yield
China
Russia
U.S.
Robock et al.,2007
Surface temperature declines after global conflict to ice age conditions
Year
Ice age temperatures
Daily minimum temperatures for Iowa and the Ukraine
remain below freezing for a year or more
after global war
Robock et al.,2007
Precipitation for Iowa after a global war reduced up to 90%
SummaryThe use of the SORT or START arsenals
would:• Reduce global temperatures to ice age
conditions
• Reduce global precipitation by 50%