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International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Designing Adaptation Plans
Local Experiences from the Hindu
Kush Himalayas
Dhrupad Choudhury
Adaptation to Change Regional Programme
Regional Training Workshop on adaptation for
Asian LDCs Siam Reap, Cambodia
20-24th August, 2013
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Hindu Kush Himalayas: Diverse
resources, growing vulnerabilities
The Third pole :
largest repository of
freshwater outside the Poles
- Asia’s ‘Water Towers’
Ecological buffer between
the Tibetan Plateau and
South Asia; diverse
resources, exceptionally
high biological and cultural
diversity
Himalayan glaciers:
Source of freshwater reserves providing
headwaters for 10 major river systems
in Asia – a lifeline for almost one third
of humanity
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Liu and Chen, 2000
Temperature increasing more at
higher elevations
Elevation-temperature trend relationship (Tibetan Plateau)
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1973
(photo ICIMOD
archive)
2011
(photo Panday)
Mt. Machhapuchhare, Nepal, 6993 meters
Snow cover over parts of the Himalaya has
been decreasing…
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Monsoon patterns are changing…
Changes in rainfall intensity, water availability;
Increasing frequency of disasters
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How do we adapt to the changing
environment?
10 major rivers
210 million in HKH;
1.3 Billion People Downstream
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Who (and where) are the
vulnerable? Effective targeting
• Mountain, coastal, island communities
• The poor and the marginalised..women, elderly, children…
Generalisations….
Governments require tangible and accurate information for action…..
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Serving the eight countries of the
Hindu Kush Himalayas (5 LDCs)
Vision:
Men, women, and children of the Hindu Kush
Himalayas enjoy improved wellbeing in a
healthy mountain environment
Regional Inter-governmental Learning and Knowledge Centre
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Regional Programme on Adaptation
to Change
Enhanced adaptive
capacities of women, men
and children of the
Himalayan region supported
through appropriate policies
and practices
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GDP contribution (%age)
(Source: KPK Census data)
1990-91 1995-96 2002-3
Over all agro-ecosystem 23.6 21.8 20.6
major crops 8.4 6.6 4.7
minor crops 3.7 3.3 1.8
livestock 10.8 11.5 12.5
Anomalous climate trends
Quantitative Approaches: Agro-pastoral trends
in Upper Indus Basin
Decreasing agriculture area Increasing livestock
(Fowler & Archer 2005)
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0
20
40
60
80
100
< 500 500-1000 1000-1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000 3000-3500 3500-4000 4000-4500 >4500
No. of
Pix
els
in
Per
cen
tag
e
Zone of Elevation (m)
Pixels with Significant Trend (p-value <0.10) Pixels indicating Greening Trend Pixels indicating Browning Trend
Greening / Browning of rangelands –
challenges...and opportunities?
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Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
Socio-demographic profile
Entitlement to resources
Livelihood strategies
Social networks
Accessibility
Coping strategies
Wellbeing
Health/sanitation
Food security
Water security
Environmental fragility
Natural shocks
Economic shocks
Perception of climate variability
Climate variability
Dependency ratio
Agricultural land per head
Per head consumption
Remittances per head
No. of institut. which helped
Time to next market centre
No. of adaptation strategies
Drinking water quality
No. of month food suffficient
No. of month water sufficient
Quality of wall material
No. of natural shocks
No. of economic shocks
Perc. change in temperature
Extreme temperature data
Quantitative approaches: PVA
Operationalization of Vulnerability
Vulnerability
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8,822 HH of 23 districts
• 3,448 HH of 9 mountain districts
• 3,836 HH of 10 hill districts
• 1,538 HH of 4 plain districts
Nepal: Surveyed Districts & Sample
size (IFAD, MFA-Norway)
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System to delineate pockets of poverty &
vulnerability : Improving targeting & shaping
adaptation & development interventions
Vulnerability
(within districts)
Food security
(within districts)
Vulnerability Districts
Nepal - 9 districts: 4 mtns; 3 hills; 2 terai;
3600 households
Multiple dimensions for determining pockets
of poverty and vulnerability
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Mainstreaming Adaptation into
Development: Linking vulnerability to
Multi-dimensional Poverty Measures
Vulnerability Index MPM = poverty headcount x poverty intensity
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Understanding Multi-dimensionality:
Characteristics & Attributes….. Towards
better targeting & effective mainstreaming
0.25
0.25
0.20
0.18
0.17
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.58
0.56
0.46
0.41
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.36
0.26
0.31
0.24
0.24
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.10
0.11
0.07
0.04
0.01
0.44
0.45
0.44
0.44
0.43
0.47
0.46
0.41
0.48
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.47
0.43
0.40
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.46
0.37
0.40
0.40
0.37
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60
Humla
Bajhang
Jajarkot
Khotang
Bhojpur
Udayapur
Saptari
Mugu
Kailali
Siraha
Taplejung
Rukum
Sindhuli
Dailekh
Sankhuwashava
Darchula
Sindhupalchok
Sunsari
Terthum
Solukhumbu
Gorkha
Kavre
Dolakha
MPM
Headcount
Intensity
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Reality Checks:
Assessing Community Needs and
Capacities (Qualitative)
• Participatory assessments of vulnerability and local adaptive capacities – PRA approach (with subsequent quantifications)
– Community perceptions on
change
– Impacts of change, community responses to overcome change
– Identify community concerns, areas for institutional support
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Uttarakhand: 3
Nepal: 3+2
N E India: 5
Bhutan: 2
Participatory assessments….(where
and with whom)
Survey districts
Bhutan Pemagatshel
Trashi Yangste
India
Uttarakhand Almora
Bageshwar
Tehri
NE India W Garo Hills
E Garo Hills
Ri Bhoi
Karbi Anglong
Ukhrul
Nepal (Mid-west)
Humla
Bajhang
Dailekh
(West & East)
Tanahu
Terathum
Total: 15 districts; 90 villages
(criteria – elevation, accessibility, marginality)
Elevation range: 50-3,500 m
6 IFAD Projects:
Bhutan: AMEPP
India: Aajeevika, MRDS & NERCORMP
Nepal: WUPAP & LFLP
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Participatory assessments:
Approach and methodology
Approach: Participatory Rural Appraisal
• Based on Community based Vulnerability and
Capacity Assessment Framework
Methodology: PRA Toolkit
o Weather perceptions (Seasonality, duration,
change)
o Hazard Ranking (Weather & weather induced)
o Seasonal Dependency (Support systems,
Resource diversity & availability)
o Seasonal Calendar (Seasonal activities)
o Venn diagram (Institutional dependency)
Participatory interpretation of PRA results :
Impacts, coping/adaptive mechanisms
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Identifying vulnerable communities:
Sensitivity to exposures (% villages reporting high hazards)
Exposure
Uttarakhand Nepal Bhutan NE India
Tehri Bageshwor Almora Bajhang Humla Dailekh Tanahu Terhathum Pemagatshel Yangtse
West
Garo
Hills
East Garo
Hills Ri-Bhoi
Karbi
Anglong Ukhrul
Hot *** ** ** * * ** *** *** **
Rain * * ** ** ** ** ***
Dry *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** ** ** *** *** *** ***
Hail ** * * * ** * ***
Storm *** * * *** ** * ***
Pest *** ** * *** ** *** *** *** **
S/E 3/3 1/4 0/2 1/2 1/1 3/4 1/4 1/4 1/3 0/4 1/6 2/3 5/6 2/4 2/3
Notations: * <33%, ** 33-66%, ***>66% of surveyed villages (= indicates degree of sensitivity to the exposure)
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Reality Check: Adaptive Capacities…
Support Systems for food & income
(dependencies)
Food resource availability (months)
Rainfed
Wet terrace
Homegarden
Forest
Animal husbandry
Fishery
Orchard
systems
0
2
4
6
8
mo
nths
8 2 5 3 5 0 1
Income resources availability (months)
Rainfed
Wet terrace
Homegarden
Forest
Animal husbandry
Fishery
Orchard
systems
0
2
4
6
mo
nth
s
6 0 5 6 6 0 1
Rainfed agriculture, homegardens, animal husbandry &
forests critical support systems for rural communities in the
mountains,
despite the strong policy focus on irrigated systems and
plantations.
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Rainfed systems: Food
& Income Availability
Duration of food resource availability:
Duration of food resource availability shows
inter-village variations
Trends suggest longer duration of resource
availability in eastern locations
Duration of income resources
availability:
Duration of income resource availability
significantly longer in eastern locations,
despite inter-village variations; very limited
duration in Uttarakhand
duration(months) of income- rainfed agri
village code
100806040200
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Observed
Linear
duration(months) of food- rainfed agri
village code
100806040200
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Observed
Linear
UK Nepal Bh NE
UK Nepal Bh NE
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Understanding capacities: Adaptive
responses (anticipatory, preventive,
long-term measures)
Responses
% of villages in locations
Uttarakhand Nepal Bhutan NE India
Adaptive
Maturation (Duration) Early (short) 6 3
Late (long) 6
Varietal replacement
new 28 3 17 11
Resistant
(traditiional) 3 50 23
crop replacement food crop 22 27 22
cash crop 39 10 6
Shifts
system Livestock 8
agriculture 6
resource
forest resources 3 6
Livestock 6
Agriculture
diversification 17 13 17 6
Occupation
(migration) 17
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Assessing adaptive capacities: Correlating responses with resource &
support system diversity y = -0.4349x + 4.6517
R² = 0.0166
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
resp
on
se
Resources/support system
Correlating response with resource base
total responses Linear (total responses)
y = -3.3358x + 5.3804 R² = 0.0288
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
resp
on
ses
SS index
Correlating SS index with responses
total responses
More diverse the
‘portfolios’ – more
effective the risk
management
High diversity
increases
resilience
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Participatory Flexible Planning: Envisioning
Future Risks to enhance adaptive capacity and
resilience of rural communities
Envisioning the future: Close your
eyes.... and wake up in the year 2033
Preparing communities to
monitor rainfall and temperature
Community Risk Mapping
Preparing Flexible Flood Map
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Disaster Risk Reduction: Preparedness and
capacity enhancement of communities
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Building capacities to manage risks:
Flood Preparedness - Early Warning
Systems
• Participatory early
warning system
• WiFi link for relay
warning downstream
– communities, DRR
system
• Complimented with
Flexible Planning for
enhancing adaptation
to flood-related
hazard management
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Institutional dependencies
Institutions Uttarakhand Nepal Bhutan NE India
Civic
Informal
Social groups
Individual W ** ** * ***
O * *
Kinship W ** ***
O
Peer group W *
O
Customary Traditional W * ***
O *
Formal
Affinity group W ** *** ***
O ** * *
NGO/Donors W ** ** *
O ** *** ***
Religious body W ** *
O * *
Public
Government W *** *** *
O *** *** *** ***
Statutory W *** *** **
O *** *
Private
Financial W *
O *** * *** *
Market W * ** * *
O * *
Notation : *<33% , ** 33-66% , *** >66% of villages , W-within village, O-Outside village
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Community dependency on
institutions: purposes & accessibility
Purposes Locations
Institutions
Civic Public Private
Informal Formal
Social groups Customary
Basic needs
Uttarakhand ** ** *
Nepal * * * **
Bhutan *** *
NE India ** * * * *
Access to resources
Uttarakhand ** **
Nepal * ** *
Bhutan * * **
NE India * * ** *
Support services
Uttarakhand ** **
Nepal ** ** *
Bhutan * ***
NE India * ** ** *
Social capital/ support
Uttarakhand ** **
Nepal * ***
Bhutan * ** **
NE India * * ** *
Notations: * <33% , ** 33-66% , *** >66% of villages
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Knowledge to Practice: Shaping
interventions (mainstreaming adaptation
into development)
Mountain
poverty
*Specificities
*Pockets
*Drivers
Community
*Adaptive capacities
*Required support
Required Action
*Improved NRM
*Income diversification
*Risk Management
*Responsive
local
governance
Poverty and
Vulnerability
Assessments
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Towards a more inclusive adaptation plan
formulation process: The Adaptation
Learning Highway