Living Within the Bounds of the Natural World Joshua Farley Community Development and Applied Economics Gund Institute for Ecological Economics University of Vermont
Jan 16, 2016
Living Within the Bounds of the Natural World
Joshua FarleyCommunity Development and Applied
EconomicsGund Institute for Ecological Economics
University of Vermont
Ecological Boundaries and Agriculture
Market Solutions?
Negative externalities Must be internalized for
efficient allocation Monetary valuation
(implies substitutability) How do we account for
changing values? Army of technocrats
providing data to politicians?
$
$
Essential and Non-substitutable Resources
Food, water, energy, ecosystem services Essential to human survival with no
adequate substitutes Critical thresholds
Ecological Physiological
Inelastic demand Large changes in marginal value with
small changes in quantity
Ecological Boundaries and the Supply Curve
Must sum together all costs: labor, capital, biodiversity loss, nitrogen, climate change, etc.
(marginal cost)
Economic output (fossil fuel economy)
Social/Physiological Boundaries
Physiological Boundaries/Thresholds and the Demand curve
Value: low and stable
Trade-offs: relatively unimportant benefits
Value: shift from marginal to total value (e.g. diamond-water paradox)
Trade-offs: Life sustaining benefits
Value: Increasing rapidly with decreasing quantity.
Trade-offs: Resilience, increasingly important benefits
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Economic output (fossil fuel economy)
Irreconcilable Thresholds?
Economic output (fossil fuel economy)
Market demand in an unequal world
Competition and self interest Americans spend 6.7% of income on
food for home consumption 11.6% of food dollar goes to farmers <1% of income spend on raw food How did you react when wheat prices
tripled? Elasticity of demand to retail prices ~.08
Implies ~.001 elasticity of demand to raw food prices
Market demand in an unequal world
Many poor countries spend >70% of income on food for home consumption Perhaps 50% spent on raw food? How do poorer countries react when
wheat prices triple? Arab spring
Elasticity of demand ~.7 Budget share and elasticity
Market Demand, Unequal World
2700
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Trade-offs:Starvation now or in future
Sustainability and justice vs. preferences
Market Supply and Demand
Marginal market costs(Market supply curve))
Poor people have no demand
Physi
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for
rich
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rice
Market Allocation of Essential Resources on an Unequal Planet
Does it maximize utility? The perversion of utility
Is it efficient (Pareto efficiency)? Would it be possible to re-allocate food from obese
people to malnourished people without making anyone worse off?
Do we need to make subjective value judgments to answer this?
Do we want to apply this logic to non-marketed ES?
Objective needs should take priority over subjective preferences weighted by purchasing power
Market Equilibrium on a Full and Unequal Planet?
Equilibrium result of negative feedback loops Scarcity price increase decrease in demand; increase in
supply equilibrium No prices for non-market goods
Essential resources Price increase decrease in demand
Finite resources on full planet (food, energy, land, stocks) Price increase increase in supply (or only at cost of future
supply) Speculation
Price increase increase in demand Dis-equilbrium, redistribution from positive feedback loops
Market Equilibrium on a Full and Unequal Planet?
Growing concentration of wealth stimulates speculation
Speculation breakdown of market mechanism Inequality Instability
Complex system Negative and positive feedback loops,
non-linearity, surprises, etc.
Who benefits from speculation?
HEADLINE: Despite Drop in Commodity Prices, Farmland Values Rise
19x$
19$+i
19$+p+i
$
19$+p+
i
19$+2p
19$+2p
19$+p + i +i’
Solutions
Redefining Goals: Efficiency
What is efficiency? Ratio of benefits/costs
Agriculture Food production/land; food/labor Most efficient system ever?
Energy in, energy out?
Economics diminishing MB, rising MC. MC=MB Pareto efficiency Maximizing monetary value How do we do this for food?
Ecological Economic Efficiency
What is the desirable end? Normative judgement
What are the costs?
economic technical ecological efficiency efficiency
efficiency
• Allocative efficiency• Producing the right foods with
the right resources on the right land• Taxes and subsidies?• Land use inherently competitive
• Distributive efficiency• Ensuring these foods go to those
with the greatest physiological need• More equitable distribution of
wealth?• Alternatives to price rationing?• Competition for food
• Brazil, India, small farmers
Food Security
• Throughput broadly defined• Water, energy, fertilizers, labor, capital,
land• Cannot rely on non-renewables
• Requires major investments in R&D, extension
• How do we minimize costs of developing new technologies, maximize benefits?• Economics of information• Land grant universities• Markets fail to account for future generations,
negative externalities, public goods• Competition and price rationing inherently
inefficient• Cooperation required
• Agroecology and on farm throughput
• Minimizing impact of throughput on ES• Minimizing agrotoxins, fossil fuels, erosion• Non-market benefits• Open access and public goods• Cooperation required
• Perennial polyculture, agroecology• Restoring ecosystem services
Sustainable Money: Vertical money, 100%
fractional reserve, green taxes
$Taxes, AEAs
$ $
Summary & Conclusions
Markets fail to account for ecological degradation
Markets fail to distinguish between needs and wants Bad idea to extend them to ecosystem services
Markets promote unsustainable, unjust and inefficient agricultural systems
Markets increasingly dominated by destabilizing, inequality inducing speculation Changes over last 40 years
Summary & Conclusions
Must define appropriate goals for economic system on crowded, finite planet
Must understand resource characteristics Non-rival, non-excludable, interdependent
Appropriate economic institutions based on resource characteristics and goals
Cooperation required to solve ecological problems, achieve just distribution, produce required technologies
Current System:Vertical money
$taxes
$
$
profits
Current System: Horizontal Money
What if there’s a great lending opportunity, and bank has already lent 19$?
Where do i (interest) and p (profit) come from?
More loans or more vertical money required. ECONOMIC GROWTH (physics and ecology)
What if p<i? Procyclical monetary system (positive
feedback loops) Inherently unstable
19x$
19$+i
19$+p19x$
$