LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS UNDER PRESSURE: A Socio-economic approach L. Louloudis, S. Klonaris, D. Dimopoulos, S. Christopoulos, I. Theocharopoulos Haarlem meeting.

LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS UNDER PRESSURE:

A Socio-economic approach

L. Louloudis, S. Klonaris, D. Dimopoulos, S. Christopoulos, I. Theocharopoulos

Haarlem meeting 6-7th of Febuary

•Elaboration of data derived by field survey on 370 Grazing Livestock Systems

•Out of an original sample of aprox. 370 GLS only 57 were available

•Approach based on the application of the Knowledge Rules diagram made during an earlier stage of the project

•Example based on LFAs path of KR due to current non-availability of certain variables e.g. investments information

•Results are provisionary subject to alterations after all data is available

Some Introductory Notes

Continue farming

Might continue farming

Stop farming

Might stop farming

Investments during the last 5 years<EU >EU

Specialised

SuccessionNo Yes

Plains Decision Path

Others

Off Farm Income% of the FFI

<10% >40%10-40%

On Farm Income% of Gross Value of

Production

<10% >30-40%10-30%

Networks

UR & RDP

High

No/Low

UR <& RDP>

UR >& RDP<

Both > Both <

Pluriactive

Yes

No

LFA’s Decision Path

Self -Processing No Yes

PDO NO YES

NetworksLow/No High

Self marketing

No Yes

Support Yes No

Age <55 >55

Continue farming

Might continue farming

Stop farming

Might stop farming

Added value

High

No/Low

LFAs: Selection of questions related to socio-economic analysis

•Pluriactivity: 8,9,10,11

•Self-Processing: 47,62,69,72,79,81

•PDO: 14

•Self-marketing: 48,49,63,72,81

•Networks: 51,65,75,84

•Support:13

•Age: 3

LFA indexPluriactivity index Self-Processing Index PDO Self-Marketing indexNetworks Support age Decision1 0 1 0 1 0 57 20 < 1/3 0 1 0 1 1 330 0 1 0 1 1 430 0 1 0 1 1 501 0 1 0 1 38 11 < 1/3 0 1 0 0 1 50 31 0 1 0 0 1 72 21 0 1 0 1 0 53 10 0 1 0 1 701 < 1/3 0 1 0 1 39 21 0 1 0 0 0 55 31 0 0 0 0 1 51 21 1/3 - 2/3 0 1 0 0 0 45 30 0 1 0 0 0 501 0 1 0 1 1 37 11 0 1 0 0 1 62 21 0 1 0 0 1 55 21 0 1 0 1 1 33 11 < 1/3 0 1 0 0 1 40 20 < 1/3 0 1 0 0 1 00 0 1 0 1 580 < 1/3 0 0 0 1 0 391 < 1/3 >2/3 1 > 2/3 0 1 45 11 0 0 0 1 1 46 11 <1/3 1 > 2/3 1 1 40 11 0 1 0 1 1 45 10 < 1/3 0 1 0 1 1 410 < 1/3 < 1/3 0 < 1/3 0 0 600 1/3 - 2/3 < 1/3 1 1/3 - 2/3 1 1 490 0 0 1 1 371 < 1/3 0 0 0 0 1 52 21 < 1/3 >2/3 1 > 2/3 1 1 40 11 0 1 1 37 11 0 1 1 49 10 < 1/3 0 1 1 590 1/3 - 2/3 0 0 0 1 1 600 1/3 - 2/3 < 1/3 1 < 1/3 1 1 361 0 0 0 0 1 46 21 < 1/3 < 1/3 1 0 0 1 42 21 < 1/3 0 1 0 0 1 38 21 < 1/3 < 1/3 1 0 1 1 61 11 < 1/3 < 1/3 1 0 1 1 27 11 < 1/3 0 0 0 0 1 45 21 0 0 0 1 1 46 11 < 1/3 < 1/3 1 > 2/3 0 1 33 21 < 1/3 > 2/3 1 > 2/3 0 1 42 11 < 1/3 > 2/3 0 < 1/3 0 1 73 11 < 1/3 > 2/3 0 > 2/3 0 1 48 11 1/3 - 2/3 > 2/3 0 > 2/3 0 1 37 11 < 1/3 > 2/3 0 > 2/3 0 1 48 11 < 1/3 0 0 0 0 1 64 21 < 1/3 < 1/3 0 0 1 41 21 0 1 0 1 1 74 11 0 1 0 1 1 49 21 0 1 0 0 0 59 21 0 1 0 0 0 62 21 0 1 0 0 0 43 3

farm_id LFA indexPluriactivity indexSelf-Processing IndexPDO Self-Marketing indexNetworks Support age Decision27 1 1/3 - 2/3 0 1 0 0 0 45 361 1 < 1/3 > 2/3 0 < 1/3 0 1 73 165 1 < 1/3 0 0 0 0 1 64 2

Legend:

Info directly derived from QRInfo indirectly derived from QRResults: Farmer’s Decision (1: Continue, 2: Might Continue, 3: Stop)

Questionnaire hurdles for our analysis

Questions on “pluriactivity” could not be used as to extract quantitative information

Existence of networks –to be clarified- according to the form of “contractual agriculture”in different production sectors in each M-S

Area and Farm Profiles are essential for a comparative reading of the field research data

ELPEN Region

12,3%

15,8%

26,3%

45,6%

ELPEN Region 14

ELPEN Region 12

ELPEN Region 5

ELPEN Region 1

LAND_USE

47,4%

15,8%

3,5%

12,3%

21,1%

Permanent_grass

Off_farm_grazing

Off_farm_fodder

Grassland

Arable

intensity

3.00

2.00

1.00

size

14,0%

43,9%

42,1%

Small_scale

Medium_scale

Large_scale

An illustration of socio-economic indexes developed, based on the 57 RFs available

•Age

•Self-processing

•Pluriactivity

•Self-marketing

•GL sectors

•Size

•Non-agricultural tranfers

•Networks

•PDO

Per ELPEN Region

Per Livestock Sector

•Self-processing

•Pluriactivity

•Self-marketing

Example: State of pluriactivity

SheepMixed GLGoatsCattle

%

Pluriactivity index

1/3 - 2/3

< 1/3

2529 100100

7571

ELPEN Regio 14ELPEN Regio 12EPLEN Regio 5ELPEN Regio 1

%

Pluriactivity index

1/3 - 2/3

< 1/3

4020817

60

80

92

83

Decision for Future

10%

43%

48%

Stop Farming

Might Cont Farming

Continue Farming

ELPEN Regio 14ELPEN Regio 12EPLEN Regio 5ELPEN Regio 1

%

Decision for Future

Stop Farming

Might Cont. Farming

Continue Farming

21 2547

5375

100

53

26

LFAs

SheepMixed GLGoatsCattle

%

Decision for Future

Stop Farming

Might Con. Farming

Continue Farming

277 45

55

6027

55

18

40

67

Mixed ProductionMeatDairy

%

Decision for Future

Stop Farming

Might Con. Farming

Continue Farming

25 36

56

33

64

19

67

Large ScaleMedium ScaleSmall Scale

%

Decision for Future

Stop Farming

Might Con. Farming

Continue Farming

25

25

5650

5044

50

Preliminary Conclusions

• It seems that the vast majority of farms in the ELPEN Regions examined are determined (to different degrees) to continue

•Pluriactivity is a common feature in the examined cases, but most profound in Cattle & Goat Systems

•Farms with the greater possibility to cease activity have the following characteristics:

•Located in ELPEN Region 1

•Breed cattle & mixed GL

• Specialized at meat production

• Large-scale