Livestock and global change: Towards a sustainable and equitable livestock sector

Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production,

efficiency, livelihoods and the environment

M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton

WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation21st September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi

Livestock and global change: Towards a sustainable and equitable livestock sector

Mario Herrero

ILRI ‘livestock live talk‘, Nairobi, 28 November 2012

– 17 billion domestic animals globally! (SOFA 2009)

– 30% of the Earth’s ice-free surface occupied by livestock systems (Reid et al 2008)

– 1/3 of global cropland used for feed production

– 14-18% of global greenhouse gas emissions (FAO 2006)

– 32% of global freshwater consumption (Heinke et al, forthcoming)

Livestock – the big numbers

– Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008)

– Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999)

– Livestock GDP: 20-40% of agricultural GDP

– Incomes for producers (more constant than crops)

– Livestock as a risk management tool, especially for the poor

Livestock’s economic benefits

4

At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on livestock

Thornton et al. 2002, revised 2009

– Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008) – Africa 8% of calories

– Providers of food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber

– Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World

– .

Europe - 2000

10%

11%

5%

31%5%

1%

37%

Meat

Dairy

Fruit & Vegetables

Cereals

Roots & Tubers

Dryland crops

Others

Livestock and nutrition

SSA - 2000

3%

3%

4%

47%16%

3%

24%Meat

Dairy

Fruit & Vegetables

Cereals

Roots & Tubers

Dryland crops

Others

Herrero et al 2008a

6

FAO: SOFA2011

People want to eat chicken, pork and milk!

The ‘livestock revolution’: as people get richer they consume more meat

The demand for livestock products to 2050

Rosegrant et al 2009

Annual per capita consumption

Total consumption

year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt)

Developing 20022050

2844

4478

137326

222585

Developed 20022050

7894

202216

102126

265295

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Climate changeWhat will happen to feed resources? Diseases? Productivity?

Courtesy of A. Jarvis

FAO: SOFA2011

Prices volatile, impacts on the livestock sector and the poor?

A blip or an emerging trend?

Livestocksystems are not the same everywhere

Needs nuanced understanding and

action

Pros

Nutrition

Income

Risk management

Employment

Nutrients

LandscapeMaintenance

Land use unsuitable for

agriculture

Cons

Large users of resources

Polluters (in places)

Significant GHG

emissions

Less efficient than other

forms of food production

Zoonosis

The balancing act

11

LIVESTOCK = problem or opportunity?

Share of livestock in global GHG emissions

Steinfeld et al. (2006)

Livestock in the developing world have a high mitigation potential

Better feeds, breeds, management, incentives, policies and regulation

Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced

Large ineficiencies in the developing world – an opportunity?

Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

What are recent assessments telling us about the future of food and livestock production?

Will we be able to feed 9 billion people?

Maybe, depends on what we do.

Different scenarios = Different resource use implications

Different social, economic and environmental costs

it all depends how the world reacts

FAO: SOFA2011

Business as usual will not stop hunger in the world

Food production

Cereals Production

4%14%

35%

2%

45%

AgroPastoral

Mixed Extensive

Mixed Intensive

Other

Developed countries

Mixed systems in the developing world produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World

Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high potential, relatively good market access)

Herrero et al 2009, 2010

Mixed systems in the developing World produce the food of the poor (Herrero et al 2009)

Maize Production3%

13%

28%

2%

54%

Millet Production

26%

48%

19%

1% 6%

AgroPastoral

Mixed Extensive

Mixed Intensive

Other

Developed countries

Rice Production3%

20%

66%

5%6%

Sorghum Production3%

44%

20%

2%

31%

7%

13%

17%

4%

59%

Mixed systems produce significant amounts of milk and meat

28%

18%

21%

5%

28%

AgroPastoral

Mixed Extensive

Mixed Intensive

Other

Developed countries

9%

15%

19%

7%

50%

beef milk lamb

Developed countries dominate global milk production, significant exports…but…Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World

Mixed intensive systems in the developing World

are under significant pressures

2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in Asia

150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by 2030

Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry, increasing by 30-40% to 2030

Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice Others increasing: maize (East Asia) All in the same land!

Severe water constraints in some places Soil fertility problems, shrinking farm sizes in others

Important productivity gains could be made in the more extensive mixed rainfed areas

Less pressure on the land Population density*(people/km2)  2000 2030

agro-pastoral 8 14

mixed extensive 79 112

mixed intensive 273 371

other 28 41

Yield gaps still large

Public investment required to reduce transaction costs, increase service provision and improve risk management

These systems could turn in ‘providers’ of agro-ecosystems services to other systems (i.e. fodder for the mixed intensive systems)

Maize crop in Rajasthan, India during rainy season 2009

District Rainfall

(mm)

Yield (kg ha-1) CD (5%)FP FP + IC BN + IC

Tonk 288 1150 1930 3160 280

Udaipur 570 2530 3090 6320 509Mean (5 districts) 1810 2550 (41%) 4340 (141%)

Yield gaps still high in more extensive systems

FP=Farmers’ practice; IC=Improved cultivar; BN=Balanced nutrition

Courtesy of Peter Craufurd

To eat or not to eat…..meat?

A duality

Health problems in the developed world but need for nourishment in the developing world

How can we differentiate this message?

Most assessments show that reducing meat consumption could have a very positive impact on the environment

….but no assessment has shown what the social and nutritional impacts would be, especially in the developing world

Changing diets – consuming less meat or different types of meat could lower GHG emissions

Stehfest et al. 2009. Climatic Change

Range of GHG intensities for different livestock products

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Pig Poultry Beef Milk Eggs

kg C

O2

eq/k

g a

nim

al pro

tein

Source: DeVries & DeBoer (2008)

The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009): can we produce them?

Grains1048 million tonnes

more to 2050

humanconsumption

458 million MT

Livestock430 million MT

Monogastrics mostly

biofuels160 million MT

Projected land use changes to 2050 in several integrated assessments (Smith et al 2010)

Cropland+10 to 20%

Rangeland avg = 10%

Natural habitats0 to -20%

Cropland area increasing at a faster rate than rangelands

Faster expansion of monogastric production and intensification of ruminant production with grains

Stover deficits likely to occur in the futureHerrero et al. 2009

‘Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk and meat increases

India quotes from M Blummel

‘Stovers transported morethan 400 km to be sold’

‘Price has doubled in 5 years, now 2/3 of grain value of sorghum’

‘Farmers paying for stoverquality’

Herrero et al. 2009

Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG EmissionsAAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012

29

Land cover change 2000-2030

Intensification of ruminant production could lead to lower Intensification of ruminant production could lead to lower land requirementsland requirements

Is sustainable intensification a win – win solution for livelihoods, food security and the environment?

The thrust of the ILRI - IIASA collaboration

31

Livestock productionHigher production of milk if systems intensified

Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

32

Livestock numbersWith less animals!

Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

33

Net cumulated land use change over 2000-2030Intensification could lead to land sparing

Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

Lower land expansion

A little bit more cropland

34

Annual average GHG emissions over 2020-2030And to reduced emissions, primarily CO2 from land use changes

Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

35

Price changes 2000-2030Intensification could dampen livestock product

price increases

Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

How can we translate the results of global assessments into actionable points at the farm level?

complex !different oppotunities

Strategic CRP 3.7 Cross-cutting Platforms• Technology Generation• Market Innovation• Targeting & Impact

Consumers

R4D integrated to transform selected value chains In targeted commodities and countries.

Value chain development team + research partners

GLOBAL RESEARCH PUBLIC GOODS

INTERVENTIONS TO SCALE OUT REGIONALLY

Value chains and institutions

Major intervention with development partners

Approach: Solution-driven R4D to achieve impact

Integrated assessment of farming systems essential – at all levels – from global to local!

Herrero et al, Science 2010

0

0.5

1income

food security

GHGwater use

external inputs

mixed

pastoral

Trade-offs and synergies

A few unresolved things….

Land consolidation vs growth and intensification of the smallholder sector

Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign capital investment)

Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor

Smallholders: low opportunity cost of labour Do diversified smallholder farms promote more

biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services?

Smallholder sector fragmented: what actors are needed to support it?

What role for rangelands?

Potential for carbonsequestration in rangelands(Conant and Paustian 2002)

Largest land use system

Increasingly fragmented

Potentially a large C sink

PES: an important income diversification source

Difficulties in:Measuring and monitoring C stocks

Establishment of payment schemes

Dealing with mobile pastoralists

Essential to understand the magnitude of technological change!

Widely different estimates in the literature (300 – 800 million hectares)

What types of land are suitable? Rangeland vs forest? Opportunity costs?

What kinds of incentives will be required to develop them?

Can their development be pro-poor? What is the magnitude of the investment

required?

How much land is available for agricultural expansion?

Biotechnology: how much can we really alter technological change through biotechnology?

Information technology

Communications

others

Breakthroughs and surprises

From noble global goals (food security, poverty erradication and a sustainable world)

to the grand diversity of farming and livelihood systems

and viceversa!

Moving between scales

Some conclusions

Can we feed 9 billion people: yes, we can by doing the right things

We need to change investment paradigm and also start investing in the systems of the future (not only in the what were the high potential areas)

Livestock research could have an enormous role

Infrastructure and market development essential

Incentives: Technology could play a key role but we need investment in provision of services

Sustainable livestockfutures team

some contributions to the global change agenda

2002 Poverty mapping in the developing world

2006 Mapping vulnerability to climate change in Africa

2007 Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture

2007 IPCC AR4 report – inputs in the adaptation chapter

2008 Human Development Report

2009 IAASTD – contributing authors

2009 CGIAR Assessment of drivers of change in mixed crop-livestock systems

2009 IPCC Greenhouse Gas Emissions Task Force

2009 Livestock in a Changing Landscape

2010 Science food security issue – invited review

2010 World Development Report – Climate Change

2010 UK Foresight report – contributing authors

2011 UNEP Ecosystems Services Assessment

2011 State of the World Report – Livestock Chapter lead

2011 WWF Global deforestation outlook

2011 Vulnerability of food systems to climate change (for CCAFS)

2013 PNAS Special Issue on Livestock and Global Change (Guest Editors)

2013 IPCC AR5 report contributing authors adaptation/mitigation chapters

Thank you!

Thank you!