Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa Livestock-based options for economic wellbeing in Africa ILRI@40 Side event at the All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Nairobi, Kenya, 28 October 2014 Livestock and Economic Well- being in Africa Dr. Yemi Akinbamijo Executive Director, FARA
Presented by Yemi Akinbamijo, Executive Director, FARA, at the ILRI@40 Side event at the All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture, Nairobi, Kenya, 28 October 2014
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Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa
Livestock-based options for economic wellbeing in Africa ILRI@40 Side event at the All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture
Nairobi, Kenya, 28 October 2014
Livestock and Economic Well-being in Africa
Dr. Yemi AkinbamijoExecutive Director, FARA
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Outline1. Introduction
2. Why Livestock Matters
3. Mega trends and their implication on the impact of livestock economic well-being of Africans
4. How should the livestock sub-sector contribute to attainment of the future agric (incl. livestock) that Africa wants
5. About FARA
6. Concluding remarks
25 years ago …
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25 years ago …
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25 years ago …
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25 years ago …
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Well-being (OECD, 2011)
Material Living Conditions
Quality of Life
Sustainability of well being over timePreserving the different types of capital
Mega trends with a bearing on the livestock sector in Africa …2/3
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5. Rising energy and agricultural input prices
Mega trends with a bearing on the livestock sector in Africa …3/3
6. ICT proliferation
7. Pressure on genetic resources and biodiversity
Devel-oped
countries
Africa Near East Latin America
South Asia East Southeast
Asia
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
273
32 24
62
108
46
320
83
49
101
261
88
Estimated Milk consumption pa 2005-07 and 2050(Million MT)
2005-07 2050
Devel-oped
countries
Africa Near East Latin America
South Asia East Southeast
Asia
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
108
11 7
34
7
87
132
35
20
61
40
160
Estimated Meat consumption pa 2005-07 and 2050 (Million MT)
2005-07 2050
Mega trends of:• Population growth• Urbanisation• Income growth
are drivers of growth in consumption of livestock products
How will Africa meet the growth in demand?
Imports vs increase in domestic production
Consumption of Livestock products
Data derived from WB, FAO, AU-IBAR, ILRI report, 2013
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Trends in dairy products (Milk equivalent) trade in Africa 1990 - 2010 (1,000 MT)
Imports Exports
Net imports
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Trends in Meat & Meat products trade in Africa 1990-2010 (1,000 MT)
Imports ExportsNet imports
Year
Trade in livestock products (Africa)
• Exports have stagnated or declined
• Growth in consumption is met by imports
• Net imports of dairy products about USD 2.2B & deficit is increasing
• Not sustainable !Prepared from FAOSTAT data
• Enhances safety and trade (domestic, regional and international markets)
• Increases the value added of the livestock subsector
• Creates jobs
• Lowers prices (most of the time) for consumers
Value addition of African livestock products
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• Tillage, transportation Processing (milling & threshing), water lifting
• It is time to phase out the hand hoe
• “He who has no donkey is a donkey” (Ethiopian proverb)
• Animal traction often by-passed in favour of tractor mechanization
Animal traction
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• Soil fertility is a major constraint; inorganic inputs out of reach for poor farmers
Livestock as source of input for soil fertility management
• Livestock manure: an important source of nutrients + soil quality enhancement
• Strong push for organic agriculture
• Foot and Mouth Disease cause losses of approximately USD 25 billion per year (J. Rushton, 2012).
• Ticks and tick-borne diseases cost approximately USD 17 billion per year (De Castro, 1997).
• A severe avian influenza pandemic could cause the death of 70 million people and decrease global GDP by 4.8% OECD report (2011)
• Economic cost of CBPP in 12 African countries estimated at 44.8 million Euros (Tambi et al. 2006)
• Economic surplus from rinderpest surveillance in Ethiopia estimated at 2.8 million Euros (Tambi et al. 2005)
Infectious animal diseases and emerging zoonotic risks erode economic well-being
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Climate change increases vulnerability of livestock systems
• Increased spread of diseases and emergence of new ones
• Reduced carrying capacity of rangelands
• Water scarcity
• Heat-related mortality
Livestock and climate change …1/2
Livestock supply chains are estimated to generate 14.5% of all human-induced emissions (FAO, 2013)
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• Pastoralists in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem have progressively less livestock per head over the past 30 years
Livestock and climate change …2/2
• A result of climate change plus population growth and other land uses
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Realising the potential of livestock to enhancing economic well being
• Ensure livestock gets due attention at the policy level– In policy frameworks e.g. CAADP, National Agric. and Food Security
Investment Plans etc, Implementation plan for the Science Agenda for Agriculture in Africa
– Evidence to support policy on livestock—so much information available but it is not sufficiently used in policy formulation
– Investment in services for animal health, processing and marketing to increase self-sufficiency in livestock products
• Livestock as an integral part of agriculture and food systems (integration of crop-livestock-aquatic & forestry resources)
The Agriculture future Africa wants
TARGETS: What is the contribution of the Livestock subsector?
1. Double agricultural total factor productivity by 2025 (by taking maximum advantage of science and knowledge---the Science Agenda)
2. Increase the share of intra-African trade to at least 50% of the continent's total agrifood trade by 2025
3. End hunger and ensure food and nutrition security for all Africa's citizens on a self-reliance basis by 2025.
4. Climate change adaptation strongly integrated in agric. investment plans & strengthened by resilience mechanisms
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• Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa
• Technical arm of the African Union Commission on agricultural research and development
Core function:Facilitating collective actions for the promotion of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) to enhance broad-based productivity, competitiveness and markets in Africa
About FARA
How FARA contributes to CAADP results
2.1 Increased
agricultural production and
productivity
2.2 Better functioning national & regional
agriculture markets & trade
2.3 Expanded local agro-
industry and value addition
2.4 Improved management
and governance of natural resources for
sustainable agricultural production
The Science Agenda forAgriculture in Africa (S3A)
The Science, Technology and Innovation Strategy
for Africa (STISA)
FARA’s Strategic Priorities
(2014-2018)
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• Vision for accelerated economic and social transformation of Africa will not be realised without transformation in all agriculture subsectors incl. livestock
• Essential to map out how each agric. sub-sector incl. livestock will effectively contribute to realisation of the future Africa wants
• FARA to support efforts aimed at assuring that livestock gets the policy attention it deserves
• ILRI and other CGIAR Centers/CRPs to align livestock programmes to CAADP framework
• Enough blah blah; let us concetrate on the do do