LIONS OF THE SAVANAH MARCHING ON TO C21ST

AFRICAN CREATIVE ECONOMY CONFERENCE 2013

Topic : AFRICAN ECONOMIC GROWTH –A CRITICAL APPRAISAL

Drivers and beneficiaries

Presenter : Dr. Israel M. Kodiaga

Director of Programmes, Research and Strategic Development at;

The African Centre for International Studies

Venue: Cape Town, South Africa

Date: 6TH -9TH October 2013

LIONS OF THE SAVANAH MARCHING ONTO C 21 ST : A CRITICAL APPRAISAL OF AFRICAN ECONOMIC GROWTH

Introduction

Shedding off the past image where she was ever famous for the wrong reasons, Africa of the 21ST century has confounded both friends and foes alike. Rising out of the ashes of 70 years of colonial domination and 50 years of phantom independence characterized by disease,poverty, poorly managed economies, conflict and gloom; like the Phoenix, the Continent has suddenly become thefocus of growing international attention on the potential of her economic growth and market expansion. Christened the Lions of the savannah, African nations are marching gallantly to face the Tigers and the Pumas. Any accurate analysis of the African economic position today must be conscious of a continent in a World where some Countries in the North today face serious financial crisis with attendant social implications and ,the emergence of new powers such as BRICS which has upset traditional global geopolitics. These, combined with the increasingly global nature of

many problems have today raised awareness about the vital and imperious need for Africans to critically seek purely African solutions to Africa’s problems in this new century.

In the light of the emerging trends, we take a criticalpoint of departure from Afro-pessimism both from withinand from without to show that the new global political and economic order is not a fatality but one that callsfor a new framework. It’s no longer a question of whether, but one of understanding why and how Africa isstill at the heart of the new global political and economic strategies and what opportunities are there for our continent to reposition herself in the World with regard to our very own objectives, perhaps the most important of which remains economic development and freedom of the people. Ours is to critically understand Africa’s challenges, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the light of unfolding global scenarios.

The state and true prospects of Africa’s economies

That, the continent’s economy is growing faster than the economies of every other continent cannot be gainsaid. According to the World Bank about 1/3 of Africa’s 54 Nations have a yearly gain in GDP of more than 6%.Recent ranking on global competitiveness according to world economic forum has placed 6 of the

fastest growing world economies to be from the continent. It’s one thing though for economies to grow,and entirely a different matter for that growth to be translated into better living conditions for the citizenry. Analysts predict that Africa is poised for unprecedented long term economic growth. Africa has in her possession all the necessary ingredients to be the planet’s economic engine perhaps for the entire C21st. A continent once ignored is slowly emerging to be one of great focus by demographers, economists as well as industrial and agricultural experts. Seven drivers have been identified as key to transforming the continent into the world’s economic powerhouse;

1-Cities; the urban population in Africa continues to expand faster than any other continent. For instance, in 1945 there were only 49 towns in the entire continent with a population exceeding 100,000.By 1990’smost of these cities had by passed the one million markwith Lagos and Kinshasa having population of more than 3 million people each. Compared to say India, the world’s second largest country, the overall percentage of Africans living in cities already exceed the people in the subcontinent who live in cities.Accordingly, experts predict that by 2030 about half of all Africanswill be living in cities. Further, Africa’s middle class far exceeds that of India. The continent boasts of a presence of 52 cities with at least 1 million people, the same number as is the case in Europe today.

2-Stability; previously known as the home of political turmoil, coup d’états and instability, Africa of today tell a very different story. There has been a marked decline of coups which have been replaced by market forces now tempering down inflation and cutting sovereign debt. It’s little wonder that global bond traders now find it easy to buy African government bonds which also offer high yields and strong ratings. According to the polity IV index which gauges the levelof a Nation’s democracy, the number of coups has reduced dramatically since the 1990’s. In tandem, the continent now enjoys a very high ranking.

Source; Harvard Business review September 2013

3- Trade;

Experts had long admonished Africa to, ‘trade or perish’. The higher the exports so the axiom goes, the higher the growth. It’s no wonder globalization and trade have taken the lead in reshaping the world and improving our standards of living, with world trade coming to account for one-quarter of global GDP. For African Nations to access the rich external markets characterized by falling geographic and regulatory barriers, there’s a critical need for the opening of trade regimes, improve both the bureaucratic and physical infrastructure to enable goods and services toget to the market place, and most of all to improve thedomestic competition to produce these goods in the veryfirst place.

Intra-Africa trade is unfortunately still in its infancy with slightly over 11% of the continent’s tradeoccurring within its borders. The emergence of major trading blocks is transforming the continent diametrically with a $ 2 trillion economy.

4-People; with an ever growing population the continentis poised to have the biggest workforce in a decade.Accordingly, its estimated that by 2035 Africa will have more workers than China, and by the middle ofthis century Africa will be home to 25 percent of the world’s workers.Further, these workers will be

supporting fewer elderly dependents than workers in China, Europe and elsewhere.

Source: Harvard business review

4-Education; School enrollment has trebled thanks to a robust government commitment to the education .More than 20% of government spending goes to education. Primary school enrollment has risen to over 18% by 2011,while secondary enrollment has risen to almost 15%.Both increases mark an overall 18 point gain compared to just a decade ago.

5-The evolution of mobile telephony;

The rise of mobile in the continent is exploding with apenetration of 78% up from a mere 2% in the year 2000.The number is expected to hit 84% by the close of 2015.In sum, mobile internet traffic is expected to jump 25 fold within the next four years thereby lowering the cost of doing business, delivering services and enhancing financial inclusion.

6-Land for agriculture;

While awareness that Africa holds vast amounts of oil, gold, platinum and numerous industrial metals is widespread, it remains a hidden secret that Africa holds 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land. Latin America has about 300million hectares (741 million acres) of uncultivated land; Africa has 590 hectares (1.46billion acres).By strange twist of coincidence, only 24 percent of the continent’s growth from 2000-2008 came from mineral and petroleum extraction, but that 24% is drawing huge investments. Petroleum discoveries in Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya are surely poised to be a game changer .It’s hoped though, that these countries do not fall in the curse of the black Gold as has been the case with many other African Nations in possession of the precious mineral.

Most and least competitive African economies

Ridding on the crest of economic drivers so far delineated, the ranking on global competitiveness

placed 6 of the 54 African countries among some of the fastest growing. Such growth according to the World economic forum is tested against the litmus of 12 pillars viz; institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomic environment ,health and primary education, higher education and training, goods market efficiency, labor market efficiency, financial market development, technological readiness, market size, business sophistication and innovation. Accordingly, South Africa, Mauritius, Rwanda, Morocco, Seychelles, Botswana, Namibia, Gambia, Gabon, Zambia, Ghana, Kenya,Egypt, Algeria and Liberia rose diametrically taking the Top 15 rank according to that order.

Taking the top ranking in the continent and worth mentioning was South Africa which also took the third position among the BRICS economies. By the same index South Africa is placed second in the world for accountability of private institutions and third for financial market development. Closely following RSA is Mauritius which has recorded relatively strong and transparent public institutions with clear property rights strong financial independence and an efficient government. Private institutions in the country pride of high accountability with highly effective and dynamic accounting and auditing standards over and above a very strong investor protection. Rwanda backed by very strong and functional institutions, low corruption levels, a good security environment, efficient labor markets and well developed financial

markets was placed third. The story of Rwanda merits a serious study given that the country had imploded less than 20 years ago into total economic rubble.Contextually, Rwanda provides useful lessons howwith serious and committed government every single African country can easily make it into the 21st century’s mansion of progress and prosperity.

In counterpoise, Guinea ranked 141 globally is ranked third from the bottom in the continent. Although the country fairs quite well in terms of the labor market it performs dismally on infrastructure, macroeconomic environment and technological readiness. Sierraleone placed 143rd globally, is second from bottom in Africa. Exhibiting gross weaknesses in health and primary education as well as the macroeconomic environment, it behooves the community of African nations to help Sierraleone put her house in order. Burundi placed 144 globally has perpetually remained in the economic high dependency unit (HDU). Showing dismal signs of recoveryrendered by heavy taxes, poor access to business finance, endemic corruption, instability, inflation among a plethora of chronic ailments, her 53 brothers and sisters are better advised to seek the intervention of an economic and political ’ SANGOMA’ ifthey ever hope to see their kin stay alive.

Unresolved issues

The 21ST century like the previous one does not seem capable of breaking from the paradigm of a ‘surprise rich future case scenarios’. Ranking high among the challenges that Africa must address are the increasingly complex neoliberal globalization, changes in intercultural relations at the global level, climatechange, poverty ,rapid urbanization, the ICT revolution, the emergence of knowledge societies, the evolution of gender and intergenerational relations, the evolution of spirituality and of the status and role of religion in modern societies, the emergence of multi polar world and the phenomenon of the emerging powers of the south. Besides; the creation of the euro zone parallel to the rise of China and India, needless to argue; have led to major ramifications worldwide.

In tandem, the overriding question remains, how does all this affect Africa? And, how prepared is the continent to face these challenges as well as those that will arise in the future? Granted that it’s next to impossible to keep pace with advances in science andtechnology, including such areas as biotechnology, nanotechnology, and genetic engineering etc Africa’s greatest challenge is not only that of understanding how new scientific discoveries may have an impact on our societies, but also how to become a ‘continent of science itself’.

The rapidity of the pace of change in virtually all spheres of social life at the local, national,

regional, continental and global levels make it difficult to identify the challenges that Africa will be facing in the C 21st beyond a few decades. Science itself, true to Heraclitan logic is in a continuous state of flux as a result of changes occurring in nature and in society. Moreover, science and technology, far from being neutral, have become key players in the evolutions that occur in the production systems, trade, and intercultural relations as well as in research and the formulation of responses to environmental change. The ability of humanity to followdevelopments taking place in nature and to capture major trends taking place within the society is likely to increase as science itself develops.

Africa has entered the C21st with huge and unresolved issues ranking poverty, rapid urbanization, the national question, regional integration, gender inequality, food insecurity, violent conflict, political fragmentation, and the fact of occupying a subaltern position in the global community, and in global governance. The weight of the past is a major handicap for Africa. The effects of the slave trade, colonization and neo-colonialism that Africa has suffered from are still being felt, as they have each and together resulted in the suppression of freedoms, the violation of human rights and dignity of the peoples of the continent, as well as the looting of human, natural and intellectual resources.

Taking the lead among the major challenges of the continent are the low levels of education of many Africans, the lack of modern techniques of production, transport and poor infrastructure (in many instances itis still a big challenge to visit the neighboring villages due to very poor and impassable roads), a fragmented political space and the extrovert structuresof the economies.

The institutions of higher education and cultures of the elites are strongly marked not by a philosophy anddevelopment strategies guided by the interests of African peoples but by influences coming from the north, influences that are more alienating than liberating.Nevertheless,the Africa of the last decade is not the same as the one of the 60’s through to the 70’s ,80’s and 90’s.Whereas ,the one of the 60’s represented great hopes and big dreams, the 70’s and the 80’s were characterized by gloom and despair.Turmoil,strife,disease,poverty,starvation and political instability became the norm rather than the exception.

Today, the story is different; it’s one seeking the African renaissance, one that seeks to see the African strengths even from sectors hitherto left on the footnotes of economic development such as the creative sector, one that hopes to engage with the world on a symbiotic relationship as opposed to one aloof, opposedto, or subordinate to the emerging global systems.

Noting that the continent today faces challenges of an entirely different order, there, however, remains unresolved issues dating back to the early years of independence especially those that have to do with governance and development.

Africa of 2013 has made great strides and achievements in terms of social and economic development. Enormous progress has been made in education and health, and some countries have managed to establish democratic governance systems, apartheid is no more, authoritarianregimes have fallen, changes have been witnessed in Senegal, Tunisia(Jasmine revolution),Egypt, Libya and other parts of Arab Africa are making baby steps towards democratization and ultimate development. Yet even with the recent political transformations, governance issues are still part of the great challenges facing our continent.

Africa is still beset with the paradox of poverty amidst plenty; most people of the continent are poor despite the fact that the countries they live in are rich in both human and natural resources. Poverty is still massive and deeply rooted, and the processes thatlead to exclusion and marginalization of large segmentsof African societies are still ongoing. Exclusion and political marginalization of individuals, groups and

entire social classes are, as we know, are among the many root causes of many of the violent conflicts that have ravaged several African countries while aggravating underdevelopment and international dependence. Africa’s economies sadly, still remains largely owned or controlled by foreign corporations-almost all modern manufacturing, banking import-export trade, shipping, mining, plantations and timber enterprises.

Some of the’ remedies’ to the African economic crisis and, more generally to the problems of underdevelopmentand widespread poverty that have been proposed or imposed on Africa have, in some cases contributed to the worsening of problems that they were supposed to solve. Others like the use of genetically modified organisms (GMO’S) as an antidote to food security, or large scale land alienation in favor of multinational companies producing food crops or crops to obtain bio fuels, raise significant political, ethical and health concerns further complicating the land question.

Adding salt to an already very septic wound is the commodification, and the attempts to subject almost allspheres of nature and society, including human organs, forest resources and the totality of existence to a market logic pose enormous challenges for science and for society, even if in some respects the process has directed the flow of precious financial and human resources to some key issues and led to major

discoveries that could enhance societal progress. By all indications, however, with a few exceptions, the countries of the south are still to a large extent at the level of receivers/consumers in the overall relationship that is behind these processes, or at bestin the role of ‘passengers’ rather than ‘drivers’ of the process of globalization.

Equally ranking high on African challenges are issues such as high mobility of African people, both within and outside the continent, and it’s attendant consequences in terms of citizenship rights, and its impact on gender relations; the issues of climate change, natural resource management and food security; the recurrent problem of African integration with a focus on the issue of common currency and common borders; or yet again the governance of African cities since a number of studies have identified urbanization as a major trend in the evolution of the continent.

The issue of higher education calls for special focus; given the uniqueness of the role that knowledge plays in development and its ability to influence the whole system. Isn’t the’ vulnerability’ of Africa a result ofits marginal position in the world of knowledge? With the ongoing changes in higher education around the world, and the weakening of many African universities as a result of both deep crises and over twenty years of structural adjustment, brain drain and sheer negligence on the part of the state, African research

has encountered considerable difficulties in its attempts to study and interpret these events and more.

New technologies, especially ICT plays one of the most critical roles in social, economic and political developments of the continent. For instance, the mobilephone, and FM radio stations played an important role in the political and social movements in Senegal. Facedwith restrictions on political debates, the face book and twitter spurred the Jasmine revolution in Tunisia. Meanwhile, the governance of the internet, a space managed mainly by private multinational companies’ poses a serious challenge to Africa.

All the above bring us back to the question; will this be Africa’s century? Or better still how can Africa take charge of its future and make this century one of its renaissance? But what does it mean to make C21st the Century of Africa and what does that imply? How canAfrica’s vibrant and ever dynamic creative sector address the challenges that we already know, spur growth, and what type of improvements are required in the African higher education, health sector, governancestructures, human rights and gender, investment, resource utilization, food sustainability, environmental and natural resource conservancy among others in order to better prepare Africa to face the challenges of the coming decades of this century. What is the role of African artists, and those involved in

the creative sector towards the realization of the African dream?

The case of investing in African creative industries

Defined as those enterprises that have their origin in individual creativity, skill and talent and which have a potential for wealth and job creation through the generation and exploitation of intellectual property, the value of the creative industries in jumpstarting the African economic growth cannot be gainsaid.Besides,there’s a growing consensus that Africa can use and benefit from its creative assets and cultural resourcesto boost economic growth and social advancement. There’s little doubt about the important place of Africa’s contribution to our global cultural heritage.

Further, the significant increase in world’s trade in cultural products since 1990’s confirms that the cultural and creative industries could be another meansthrough which African economies can participate successfully in the global market. It’s noteworthy though, that talent alone is not sufficient to build a competitive creative economy. Need is called for the setting up of institutional, entrepreneurial and political structures that would augment the sector.

Thankfully, the ACE 2013 conference is a pioneer move to the much needed drive to bring the question of investment to the forefront and, to explore avenues of how it can be enhanced with evidence-based scenarios of

African start-ups. The conference hopefully will showcase the economic opportunities to the network of development financial institutions, private equity, limited partners, venture capitalists, policy makers, business leaders and entrepreneurs. This conference, therefore, becomes a one –stop shop of the creative sector from advertising, arts, broadcasting, fashion, film, music and publishing.

Aside from investment, there is need for further research that would inform advocacy strategies in support of the creative sector. The popularity of Nollywood and other African movies in our households isto say the least, a clear testimony of how much more can be done to make the sector a leading employer as well as the improvement of the living conditions of artists and others with vested interests in the creative sector. Once, there’s more societal inclination to perceive art as a respectable career path worth patronage and investment, the potential for the creative industry to be a legitimate and feted contributor to the development of many African Nations would be unlocked.

Critique

In a nutshell, this conference would be incomplete if it does not at the very tail end lead to the productionof knowledge informed by and that which is relevant to the social realities in Africa. The Africa creative individuals, musicians, thespians, satirists, sculptors

etc must now lead from the front in the push to place Africa in its rightful place among the community of nations. The yester years struggles against the consequences of Western domination are far from having been won. The scientific division of labor in which Africa is still mainly seen as a purveyor of raw materials of little use to the transformation of African societies is still in force. The epistemological agenda of the continent must continue to include the transformation of the dominant order which favors the North and penalizes the South, and Africa in particular. The role of creative sector must be put in its right perspectives as both a necessary and sufficient condition for jumpstarting and sustaining the twin concepts of Africa’s economic and political development. LONG LIVE AFRICA, LONG LIVE THE CREATIVE SECTOR!

Select References

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