Life course perspectives on crime combining quantitative & qualitative approaches Barbara Maughan MRC SGDP, Kings College London Institute of Psychiatry.

Life course perspectives on crime

combining quantitative & qualitative approaches

Barbara MaughanMRC SGDP, King’s College London

Institute of Psychiatry

Life course theory and research

• Aims– the study of human development and ageing

• Assumptions– development: dynamic interaction among

mental, biological & behavioural aspects of the individual

andphysical, social & cultural aspects of the environment

– biological, psychological and social factors influence life course pathways

throughout the life course

– continuity and change– equifinality and multifinality

Some key concepts

• Life course– age-graded patterns– embedded in social institutions and history

• Age / life stage– chronological, biological and social definitions

• Trajectories– sequences of roles/experiences

• Transitions in roles / states– leaving home, starting work, becoming a parent

• Turning points– experiences associated with lasting shifts in

trajectories

How well do long-term quantitative studies match these aims?

• Major advancesbut also

• Difficulties / limitations– tracking (multiple) trajectories / event histories– typically: variable-based approach to identifying

predictors– limited understanding of:

• heterogeneity in outcomes• contextual influences• meanings of events to participants• role of individual agency

• Can adding qualitative evidence help?

The specific problem:understanding the development of

crime

The Age-Crime CurveMen and women found guilty or cautioned per 100,000

population: England & Wales, 1997

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2000

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7000

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9000

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10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 . 21-24

25-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60+

Age (years)

Men Women

The specific problem:understanding the development of

crime• what accounts for:

• onset of offending• persistence in offending• desistance from offending

• extensive research• predominantly quantitative or

ethnographic• numerous theoretical models

Some theoretical perspectives on crime and desistance

• maturation / aging– desistance normative– largely unaffected by life-course events

• rational choice – reappraisal of costs/benefits of crime

• social learning– much deviance prompted by links with deviant peers– crime trends mirror trends in deviant peer affiliations

• developmental models– childhood risk factors (individual & social) influence

later course

The study: early origins(1930s and 1940s)

Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency: Sheldon & Eleanor Glueck 1950

• case control design– 500 delinquent males – 500 non-delinquents from same low income

neighbourhoods– matched on age, ethnicity & IQ

• 3 waves – ages 14, 25 & 32– extensive data on boys, their families and

early work, educational, occupational and relationship histories

The study: re-analysisCrime in the Making: Sampson & Laub, 1993

• reconstructed and re-analyzed original Glueck data• key messages (quantitative analyses)

– age-graded theory of informal social control– across the life-course, crime & deviance more

likely when bonds to society weak• childhood: family & school• But• adolescent & adult experiences can also redirect

trajectories• turning points: marriage & work• attachment to social bonds

Subsequent challenges

• Methodological– too variable-oriented

• required more person-based approach

– new quantitative developments• group-based trajectory modelling (Nagin)• dynamic approach to identifying sub-groups

• Theoretical– developmental taxonomy (Moffitt)

Moffitt’s developmental taxonomyMoffitt, 1993

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childhood onset / life course persistent

Adolescent onset

Age

The study: follow-up to age 70Shared Beginnings, Divergent Lives: Laub & Sampson, 2003

• Aims– address challenges– refine own theoretical model

• Methods– criminal record searches– death record searches– life history interviews with purposively selected sub-

samples

– interweaving of qualitative & quantitative data and analyses

Quantitative analyses of offence data

• Latent class trajectory modelling– is the age-crime relationship invariant across

• offenders?• offence types?

– is any variability explainable by childhood factors?

Latent class models of offending trajectories

property crime ages 7-70Laub & Sampson 2003

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7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70

pre

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Age (years)

Quantitative analyses of offence data

• Latent class trajectory modelling– age-crime relationship varies across

• offenders• offence types

– variability not entirely explainable by childhood factors

• What accounts for variations in persistence/desistance?

Life history interviews

• tracing– re-located 79% of prior delinquents known to be alive age 70

• purposive sampling– contrasting groups, based on quantitative (crime) data

• response– 66% of those available for interview

• interviewed– desisters (n=19)

• juvenile but not adult convictions– persisters (n=14)

• juvenile & adult (including post age 32) violent convictions– ‘zig-zag’ criminal careers (n=19)

• late (post-32) onset violence• adult (post-17) onset violence• intermittent offenders

Life history interviews

• life history calendar to place major events– interviewer and study participant work together– visual aid, focusing on multiple domains

• aids recall• helps clarify inconsistencies

– focus on sequences, not isolated events– contextualizes events– can use personalized markers (birthdays, illnesses etc)

• open-ended interviews– life history in range of domains– evaluations of lives– self-defined turning points

• reliability of accounts checked against existing records

Understanding desistancequalitative accounts

• combination of– individual agency (choice)– situational contexts / structural influences

• by product of other changes• 4 major self-described turning points

– reform school– military service– marriage / partnership– neighbourhood change

• core features– ‘knife off’ past from present– provide

• social support / emotional attachmentbut also• structured daily activities• monitoring and control

– opportunities for identity transformation

Understanding desistancequalitative accounts: Laub & Sampson, 2003

Turning points

• ‘I’d say the turning point was, number one, the Army. You get into an outfit, you had a sense of belonging, you made your friends. I think I became a pretty good judge of character… There’s no question that the fittest survive, and you have to learn to get along with everybody’. (p 132)

• ‘The thing that changed me was marriage. That turned me right straight down the line. She won’t put up with any baloney. Well, if you’ve got a job you’re supposed to do what the boss wants. I call her the boss. No, we’re both the boss, [but] she’s got more head than I have. She’s got more schooling, she knows more. And I agree with her’. (p 134)

Understanding persistencequalitative accounts

• backgrounds similar to desisters• validity of accounts?

– substantial ‘cover-up’ rare

• core themes– not individual characteristics / traits instead– lack of ‘connective structures’ at each stage in life

course– failure in school & military – residential, marital & job instability leading to– continued exposure to situations conducive to crime– downward spiral– awareness of missed opportunities

Understanding persistencequalitative accounts: Laub & Sampson, 2003

• ‘My entire record is stealing cars and armed robbery… it was so easy and money was so scarce… I couldn’t find a good job. And I couldn’t find a job where I could learn a trade. And I didn’t have no education. So I did the only thing I could’. (p 151)

• ‘What got me off track was when I came out I stayed with my sisters for a while and it was hard. Then I just took off. I never came back. I quit my job and I went from one friend to another friend. I didn’t want to impose on anyone’. (p 166)

• ‘She wanted to get away from him so she came with me and lived with me. We got married and then the bills started piling up and I just got in trouble again. I couldn’t make it. So we started stealing and robbing and I got myself back in prison. And she divorced me. I was only married a very short time, probably nine months. I tried to straighten out but I couldn’t. I was in too deep’. (p 159)

Some theoretical perspectives on crime and desistance

• maturation / aging– desistance normative– largely unaffected by life-course events NO

• rational choice – reappraisal of costs/benefits of crime NO

• social learning– much deviance prompted by links with deviant peers– crime trends mirror trends in deviant peer affiliations

?

• developmental models– childhood risk factors (individual & social) influence later

course NO

Understanding desistanceadditional quantitative analyses

• interviews suggested particular adult states associated with reductions in crime risk

• re-coded record and interview data to reflect age-years of – marriage / employment / military service– crime– incarceration

• hierarchical linear models

• changes in ‘event-rate’ of crime– systematically associated with adult role transitions – men less likely to be criminal in states of marriage etc– state of marriage: 40% reduction in rate of offending

– ie quantitative analyses support conclusions from qualitative data

Overview

• Theory-rich area– many (often competing) models– qualitative and quantitative approaches typically

distinct• Example

– integration of qualitative element into predominantly quantitative study

– aim: to refine theory• Approach

– reciprocal use of qualitative and quantitative elements throughout

– sampling derived from quantitative data• same individuals involved in both elements

– records used to check ‘history’ aspects of interview accounts

– qualitative data prompted new approach to quantitative analyses

Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches in life

course studies

• Advantages– highlights role of individual agency– grounded in social & historical context– reveals person-situation context:

• meanings of events to individuals• variations in meanings at different life-stages• how events structure later life course

– reveal complexity in patterns of continuity/change