LIBYA Private Sector Development (PSD) Workshop “Restructuring the Libyan Economy in Light of the New Role of the State and the Private Sector” The Tunisian Experience Marouane El Abassi EPD General Coordinator Worldbank CORINTHIA HOTEL 29-30 April 2008
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LIBYAPrivate Sector Development (PSD) Workshop“Restructuring the Libyan Economy in Light
of the New Role of the State and the Private Sector”
The Tunisian ExperienceMarouane El Abassi
EPD General CoordinatorWorldbank
CORINTHIA HOTEL29-30 April 2008
Libya in the Global Market
Where will employment come from?
• Unemployment is high, particularly among the young. Including disguised it is thought to be at least 30%. .. Estimates indicate that the government employs up to 70% of all salaried Libyans.
• Since 2000 the government wage bill has risen by almost 50%, mostly as a result of the increasing numbers employed by the state, rather than a rise in wage levels.
• Subsidies, which between 2000 and 2005 are estimated to have risen more than sixfold, made up for the lack of wage rises. …
• Recent initiatives to reduce the number of civil servants (estimated at over 1 million) are likely to affect up to 400,000 workers.
[EIU]
Libya enjoys a favorable trade balance with its leading trade partners.
By most measures, Libya already has sufficient exports.
Libya’s exports are almost entirely centered on energy.
In 2006 the hydrocarbons sector “contributed an estimated 98% of export earnings and 93% of government receipts, and constituted an estimated 79% of nominal GDP. Since the lifting of sanctions, the oil sector has expanded at a rapid rate—in 2000 its share of GDP was just 39%.
As a result, the contribution of both manufacturing and agriculture has fallen over the same period, from 5% and 8.1% of GDP in 2000, to an estimated 1.2% and 2.2%, respectively, in 2006.” [Economist Economic Intelligence Unit]
Given its high per capita GDP, Libya is unlikely to compete in manufactured exports except in niche and
energy‐related sectors.
5,1144,800a8,515a6,15614,548GDP per head (US$ at PPP)
1,9801,430a2,924a3,3567,605GDP per head (US$)
63.3107.929.8111.945.3GDP (US$ bn)
MoroccoaEgyptbTunisiabAlgeriaaLibyaa
Comparative economic indicators, 2006
This suggests that diversification and employment are more likely to be found in nontradables and services.
Much progress on trade, yet much more to do.
• Important tariff reforms. For example, in 2004, the maximum tariff rate was reduced in 2004—to 100%—and the average rate came down to just under 18%.
• “However, the process for Libya to join the WTO is likely to be lengthy, not least because many changes will need to be made in the areas of taxation, tariffs and regulations. The process will also require the Libyan authorities to introduce far greater transparency, initially simply to provide sufficientinformation to support Libya's application negotiations, but eventually to satisfy WTO information requirements as an eventual member.” EIU (2008):
Benefits of liberalizing services under WTO: a vital tool in
economic growth and development
• “The impressive results we have seen in 10 years of opening telecommunications markets shows how crucial liberalizing services trade can be for economies. …
• “Since the results came into force ten years ago this month, global access to telecommunications has increased from below 15 percent in 1996 to above 60 percent in 2006, and revenues have risen from US$620 billion to US$1.4 trillion during the same period.
• Telecommunications are an essential prerequisite for a wide range of economic activities in any national economy, developing or developed, from agriculture, travel and tourism to mining and manufacturing. Opening telecommunications has been a win‐win game,” said WTO Director‐General Pascal Lamy(Feb. 20, 2008).
THE TUNISIAN EXPERIENCE
The Importance of Trade Policy in Achieving Export Development The Importance of Trade Policy in Achieving Export Development GoalsGoals
1970 1970 19901990
The Economic Policy mainly included:The Economic Policy mainly included:
Increasing ExportsIncreasing Exports
Promoting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)Promoting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
The implementation of incentive policies for the fully The implementation of incentive policies for the fully
exporting firmsexporting firms
The protection of the partially exporting firmsThe protection of the partially exporting firms
The Importance of Trade Policy in Achieving Export Development The Importance of Trade Policy in Achieving Export Development GoalsGoals
Limited Domestic Limited Domestic MarketsMarkets
Scarcity of Natural Scarcity of Natural ResourcesResources
Better integration of inspection Better integration of inspection procedures and emphasizing risk procedures and emphasizing risk management measuresmanagement measures
DDirection de la irection de la QQualitualitééet de la et de la PProtection du rotection du
CConsommateuronsommateur
Customs procedures Customs procedures simplification and encouraging simplification and encouraging their respecttheir respect
DDirection irection GGéénnéérale rale des des DDouanesouanes
Indicators of trade logistics Indicators of trade logistics performanceperformance
DDirection irection GGéénnéérale du rale du CCommerce ommerce EExtxtéérieurrieur
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 2222
PDE APPROCH PDE APPROCH
EXPORTINGEXPORTINGWELLWELL
IMPORTINGIMPORTINGWELLWELL
SUPPLY CHAINSUPPLY CHAIN
FACILITATING FACILITATING
FOREIGN TRADE FOREIGN TRADE PROCEDURESPROCEDURES
PDE APPROCHPDE APPROCH
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 2323
HOW THE EPD COULD HELP LOCAL FIRM
IMPORT`S LEVEL
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 2424
CONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORTCONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORT
The The offshoreoffshore regime aiming at easing exchange flows, particularly regime aiming at easing exchange flows, particularly
import flowsimport flows
In the wake of trade liberalization, the onshore regime has beenIn the wake of trade liberalization, the onshore regime has been
facing problems related to importing procedures facing problems related to importing procedures
Facilitating Foreign Trade procedures began withFacilitating Foreign Trade procedures began with PDE1 (2000PDE1 (2000‐‐2004):2004):
Single Single windowwindow
TTN TTN
Optimization of customs proceduresOptimization of customs procedures
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 2525
CONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORTCONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORT
PDE 2 (2005 PDE 2 (2005 –– 2009):2009):
SelectivitySelectivity
Dematerialization of Foreign Trade procedures Dematerialization of Foreign Trade procedures
Providing a network for administrations loaded with Providing a network for administrations loaded with
inspectioninspection
Optimization of risk management procedures (customs, Optimization of risk management procedures (customs,
inspection and INORPI)inspection and INORPI)
Information on standards and onInformation on standards and on‐‐line paymentsline payments
ReductionReduction of of averageaveragetime of time of goodsgoods staystay in the in the port (9 to 3 port (9 to 3 daysdays) [6.7 d in ) [6.7 d in
2007]2007]
Reduction of customs Reduction of customs clearance time 0.5 days by clearance time 0.5 days by the end of the project [0.8 the end of the project [0.8
d en 2007]d en 2007]
3 jours3 jours
9 jours9 jours
Stay of the good in Stay of the good in the portthe port
Duration of customs Duration of customs clearanceclearance
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 2828
CONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORTCONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORTDEMATERIALISATION OF PROCEDURESDEMATERIALISATION OF PROCEDURES
NETWORKING: All of administrations loaded with NETWORKING: All of administrations loaded with inspectioninspection
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 2929
CONTRIBUTION: IMPORTCONTRIBUTION: IMPORTINFORMATION PROVIDED FOR ECONOMIC AGENTSINFORMATION PROVIDED FOR ECONOMIC AGENTS
Digital data base about inspection procedures lawsDigital data base about inspection procedures laws
Information about Technical Barriers to TradeInformation about Technical Barriers to Trade
Normative Surveillance SystemNormative Surveillance System
Tunisian firms: less transactions cost, more competitivenessTunisian firms: less transactions cost, more competitiveness
The decrease of goods transition explained by a better optimizaThe decrease of goods transition explained by a better optimization tion
of the harbour zones. of the harbour zones.
Effective procedures are generally transformed into a better Effective procedures are generally transformed into a better
optimization of purchases and a decline of the costs of storage.optimization of purchases and a decline of the costs of storage.
Implementation of a trade logistic component piloted by the DGCImplementation of a trade logistic component piloted by the DGCE E
aiming at developing project performance indicators.aiming at developing project performance indicators.
APPROCHE PDEAPPROCHE PDE
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 3131
HOW the EXPORT PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT COULD HELP AN EXPORT FIRM
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 3232
CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTCONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTPROSPECTING AND ACCESS TO OVERSEAS MARKETSPROSPECTING AND ACCESS TO OVERSEAS MARKETS
Firm looking for exporting opportunitiesFirm looking for exporting opportunities
PROBLEMSPROBLEMS
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 3333
CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTSCONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTSPROSPECTING AND ACCESS TO OVERSEAS MARKETSPROSPECTING AND ACCESS TO OVERSEAS MARKETS
To Position the firm To Position the firm ‐‐on long term basison long term basis‐‐ on the on the international marketinternational market
ExportingStrategy
Access to specialized
consultance service
The firm is inclined
to pay for a good quality service
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 3434
CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTCONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTTECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADETECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE
A FIRM FINDS A FOREIGN MARKETA FIRM FINDS A FOREIGN MARKET
PROBLEMSPROBLEMS
Lack of information about the requirements of the Lack of information about the requirements of the overseas marketsoverseas markets
Overseas markets are becoming more and more Overseas markets are becoming more and more demanding: standards, high quality products, normsdemanding: standards, high quality products, norms……
TTechnical echnical BBarriers to arriers to TTraderade
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 3535
CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTCONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTTECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADETECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE
Strengthen the capacity of the Tunisian administration to give tStrengthen the capacity of the Tunisian administration to give to o operators the information about the standards and the technical operators the information about the standards and the technical regulations that could be found within the international marketsregulations that could be found within the international markets
Alerts ExportService
Information about Technical Barriers to
Trade
NormativeSurveillance
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 3636
CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTCONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTPREFINANCING OF THE EXPORTSPREFINANCING OF THE EXPORTS
Financing the Working Capital Financing the Working Capital problemproblem
Exporting OpportunityExporting Opportunity
Banking system Banking system services services
unhealthy situationunhealthy situation
guarantees guarantees requirements for the requirements for the
bankbank
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 3737
CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTSCONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTSTECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADETECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE
FFonds de onds de GGarantie dearantie de FFinancement des inancement des
MAIN ACHIEVEMENTSMAIN ACHIEVEMENTSPNI PNI –– TBT : TBT : Interface Interface betweenbetween devicesdevices ? And? services to ? And? services to firmsfirms??
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 4343
MAIN ACHIEVEMENTSMAIN ACHIEVEMENTS
Évolution en pourcentage du traitement électronique des dossiers au niveau de la DQPC (janvier 2006 – Juillet 2OO7)
IMPROVEMENTS AND INTEGRATION OF THE PROCEDURES OF IMPROVEMENTS AND INTEGRATION OF THE PROCEDURES OF INSPECTIONINSPECTION
Project of reengineering of the procedures of inspections in the import (50% achievement)
Dematerialization of the procedures of inspections:•DQPC: 100% 100% of files are treated via TTN since the beginning of 2007•Objective: 100%100% of inspections files, all administrations includedall administrations included, by the end of 2008
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 4444
MAIN ACHIEVEMENTSMAIN ACHIEVEMENTSINDICATORS OF TRADE LOGISTICS PERFORMANCEINDICATORS OF TRADE LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE
Time Release Study in Time Release Study in RadesRades Port Port (2006(2006‐‐20072007))
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 4545
MAIN ACHIEVEMENTSMAIN ACHIEVEMENTSINDICATORS OF TRADE LOGISTICS PERFORMANCEINDICATORS OF TRADE LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE
Contribution of every phase in the global procedure of Contribution of every phase in the global procedure of goods customs clearancegoods customs clearance
(2007)(2007)
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 4646
MAIN ACHIEVMENTSMAIN ACHIEVMENTSINDICATORS OF TRADE LOGISTICS PERFORMANCEINDICATORS OF TRADE LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE
Evolution of the distribution of declarations on corridorsEvolution of the distribution of declarations on corridors(2007)(2007)
09/05/2008 09/05/2008 ‐‐ 4747
MAIN ACHIEVEMENTSMAIN ACHIEVEMENTSINFORMATION SYSTEM INFORMATION SYSTEM –– WWW.PDE.NAT.TNWWW.PDE.NAT.TN
• Control and management of the signings of markets.• States of progress of the project.
• Control and management of the signings of markets.• States of progress of the project.
• Management of the payment of signing of markets.• Publishing of financial follow‐up reports.• Elaboration of follow‐up statistics.
• Management of the payment of signing of markets.• Publishing of financial follow‐up reports.• Elaboration of follow‐up statistics.
• Alarms System: actions while signing.
• Surveillance system: actions that were not planned.
• Management of the internal documents.• Management of the internal mails.
• Display of the components.• Management of the project participants.
• Publishing of follow‐ups reports.• Publishing of follow‐ups reports.