Lewis H. Ziska, USDA-ARS Thanks to: Linda Ford, MD American Lung Association, Omaha, NE James Straka, PhD, Macalester College, St. Paul, MN David Frenz, MD, the Bethesda Clinic, St. Paul, MN Jonathan Patz, MD Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD Dennis Gebhard, Multidata Inc., St. Paul, MN Climate Change, and Public Health: the Botanical Perspective. Maryland Department of Natural Resources, February 19, 2009
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Lewis H. Ziska, USDA-ARS Thanks to: Linda Ford, MD American Lung Association, Omaha, NE James Straka, PhD, Macalester College, St. Paul, MN David Frenz,
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Lewis H. Ziska, USDA-ARS
Thanks to:
Linda Ford, MD American Lung Association, Omaha, NE
James Straka, PhD, Macalester College, St. Paul, MN
David Frenz, MD, the Bethesda Clinic, St. Paul, MN
Jonathan Patz, MD Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD
Dennis Gebhard, Multidata Inc., St. Paul, MN
Paul Epstein, MD, Harvard, Boston, MA
Climate Change, and Public Health: the
Botanical Perspective.
Maryland Department of Natural Resources, February 19, 2009
Atmospheric COAtmospheric CO22
So what if CO2 goes up?
I. An indirect effect of rising carbon dioxide: warmer temperatures.
Gas %
Nitrogen (N2) 78.1
Oxygen (O2) 20.1
Argon (Ar) 0.93
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
0.04 up to 0.100
Water (H2O) 0.05 to 1.00
No H2O and CO2? Surface temperature would be –18oC. With H2O and CO2? Surface temperature is 15oC.
H2O vs. CO2
Poles
Deserts
Winter
If water vapor is high, it will be the dominant warming gas….little effect of CO2
If water vapor is low, adding CO2 will increase the surface temperature.
Equator
latitude
Greenland is melting
Greenland ice loss rate doubled in last 10 yrs
CO2, warming and public health.
• Changes in range of insect or rodent borne diseases.
• Changes in water or seafood borne diseases.
• Increasing ground-level ozone, and respiratory ailments.
• Contamination of drinking water due to excessive flooding.
• Heat-related deaths / fewer cold related.
So what if CO2 goes up?, Part II, direct impacts
Carbon dioxide is the source of carbon for photosynthesis, and consequently for 99% of all life.
CO2 + H2O + light O2 + organic C + chemical energy
Nutrients, H2O
CO2
Food, GloriousFood!
Plants are Important.
“People who imagined that life on earth consisted of animals moving against a green background, seriously misunderstood what they were seeing. That green background was busily alive. Plants grew, moved, twisted and turned, fighting for [resources]; and they interacted continuously with animals—discouraging some with bark and thorns, poisoning others, and feeding still others with pollen and seeds. It was a complex, dynamic process…one which most people didn’t understand. “
Michael Crichton, Page 86, “Jurassic Park”
Plants are necessary for the flow of energy and carbon through ecosystems. 90% of all living matter consists of plant life.
With the exception of a few subterranean organisms, if plantsdid not exist, life would not exist.
Plant growth however is dependent on four physical inputs.
Any perturbation in these inputs will alter all living systems.
But isn’t more plant growth desirable?
“We are living in an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals as a result of the carbon dioxide increase. This is a wonderful and unexpected gift from the industrial revolution.” WSJ
CO2 is a VERY smart molecule.
Green is not always good.
All life will be affected not only by temperature, but by the increase in carbon dioxide of and by itself.
What are the implications for Weed Biology? Specifically:
Crops and weeds
Invasive weeds
Public Health.
How can plants affect public health?How can plants affect public health?Some direct effects:Some direct effects:
All this is “blue-sky” hypothetical &*^$%# anyway. It won’t happen in real-life, and even if it does, temperature and carbon dioxide effects are a long ways away.
Mauna Loa, “Official” CO2 data.
10,000 feet on a mountaintop in Hawaii.
Is the rise in COIs the rise in CO22 the same the same everywhere?everywhere?
Change in average day-time CO2 concentration (ppm) from downtown Baltimore to an organic (rural) farm.
300
400
500
Farm Park City
386.2402.2
455.5
Is the increase in temperature the same?
• Change in average daily temperature (oC) from downtown Baltimore to an organic (rural) farm (2002).
15
17
19
21
23
Farm Park City
19.1
20.7
18.6
Urbanization and climate change. Daytime Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
Overall: Urban-induced increases in carbon dioxide, air temperature and growing season are consistent with most IPCC near-term scenarios. With the exception of N deposition, othervariables did not differ consistency, but N low relative to soil N.
And if it isn’t…Can we study the effects of climate change NOW?
Placing four 2x2 m2 plots Near downtown Baltimore.Use same soil and seed bankin suburban and rural locations.
2006
Got ragweed?
Urban locale had longer growing season (milder winter), warmertemperatures, and more carbon dioxide.
Allergenic pollen producers, Northeast Weeds:Season: May through September
Alternaria alternata has been associated with a number of respiratory problems such as rhinitis, asthma, allergic dermatitis and allergic sinusitis. The spores are the cause of the allergic reactions.
For timothy grass grown from 300-600 ppm CO2, risingcarbon dioxide levels results in reduced leaf N levels.Initial data suggest that increased C:N ratios couldincrease the rate of sporulation.
-20000000
200000040000006000000
80000001000000012000000
1400000016000000
CO2 concentration
spor
es/g
dry
leaf
tiss
ue
first runsecond run
2. CO2, plants and contact dermatitis
Can rising CO2 alter plant based dermatitis?
The Duke University FACE Site: State of the Art.
Poison ivy at Duke Face ring.
Poison ivy plants grow faster at elevated CO2
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10370 ul/l
570 ul/l
Poison ivy allergenicity
Elevated CO2
Ambient CO2
saturated monoene monoenedienetriene
Un
satu
rate
d:S
atu
rate
d C
og
en
ers
0
5
10
15
20
**
Ambient Elevated
Duke University, USDA study, PNAS 103:9086-9089
3. CO2, plants and poison
Castor bean (Ricinus communis), produces ricin, one of the deadliest poisons known to man. Increasing CO2 by 300 ppm results in a 34% increase in photosynthesis (Grimer and Komor 1999).
Vanaja et al. (2008) reports large response to rising CO2.
How can plants affect public health? How can plants affect public health?
Some indirect effectsSome indirect effects::
•Food and Nutrition.
•Medicines / Narcotics.
•Disease vector biology.
•Pesticide use.
CO2 and human nutrition.
% Flour protein from wheat lines released during the 20th century.
Recent cooperative work with NIH indicates an increase in omega-3-fatty acids in mung bean with rising CO2.
Temperature / Flowering
23 26 29 32 35 38 41 440
25
50
75
100
Mean air temperature (°C)
Rice
See
d-s
et (
%)
Dry bean
Peanut
Rice and temperature
Water and food security
Agriculture and
water
• Today, approximately 230,000 people were added to the population. Three cereals, rice, wheat and corn feed 50% of that population. These cereals in turn are heavily dependent on irrigation.
• ~80% of freshwater is used in irrigation.
• How will we maintain food supply with less water?
0
20
40
60
80
100
Paddy Remainder
Rice production
The “Big Three” at present.
Year
1970 1980 1990 2000Glo
bal r
ough
ric
e pr
oduc
tion
(000
000
t)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
1980s: 3.1% per year1990s: 1.4% per year2000s: 0.8% per year
Rice
YEAR
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010200
300
400
500
600G
lob
al w
hea
t p
rod
uct
ion
(00
0 00
0 t)
1980s: 2.9% per year1990s: 0.9% per year2000s: 0.4% per year
Wheat
Only maize has kept pace with population.
1980s: 2.2% per year1990s: 2.5% per year2000s: 3.5% per year
Maize
Energy Independence?
Maize is a heavy user of nitrogen fertilizer. This comes fromnatural gas (Haber process, N2NH4NO3).
________________________________________________________________Drug Action/Clinical Use Species_________________________________________________________________
Quantify growth and alkaloid production to carbon dioxide
300 ppm ~1950
400 ppm Current
500 ppm ~2050
600 ppm ~2090
Papaver setigerum
Ab
ove
gro
un
d b
iom
ass
at m
atu
rity
(g
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Lea
f ar
ea a
t m
atu
rity
(cm
2)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
300 400 500 600
CO2 concentration (µmol mol-1)
P. setigerum is sensitive to even small (100 ppm) increases in carbon dioxide.
Greatest relative stimulation has occurred with recent (last few decades) CO2 increase.
Averages P-value
Variable 300 400 500 600 CO2 Effect____________________________________________________________
Capsule No. 14.6 29.4 32.9 52.1 ***
Capsule Wt. (g) 1.44 2.47 3.55 4.30 ***
Latex (mg) 97 198 259 363 ***
Morphine (%) 2.20 2.34 2.56 2.67 0.06
Concentration of other alkaloids did not increase with increasing CO2.
3-4 x increase in alkaloid production in wild poppy with recent and projected CO2 increases. Accepted in Climatic Change
Nicotine production
Nic
oti
ne p
er
pla
nt
(mg
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Col 1 vs Col 2 Plot 1 RegrCol 1 vs Col 4 Plot 2 RegrCol 1 vs Col 6 Plot 3 Regr
Days after sowing (DAS)
25 30 35 40 45 50 550
20
40
60
80
100
120
294 µatm.378 µatm.690 µatm.
A.
B.
Nicotine Concentration
294 ppm 4.7 µg g-1
378 ppm 4.4 µg g-1
690 ppm 3.6 µg g-1
3. CO3. CO22, plants and disease vectors, plants and disease vectorsplants are not vectors per se, but:plants are not vectors per se, but:
CO2 / temperature
Hanta virus Nectar & pollen
4. CO4. CO22, plants and pesticide usage., plants and pesticide usage.
As carbon dioxide increases, glyphosate efficacy is reduced
Why can’t we just control these weeds?
Ambient CO2 Future CO2
Canada thistle: Best of the worst.
3 years of field trials at +250 ppm above ambient.
A synopsis of COA synopsis of CO22 impacts on herbicide efficacy impacts on herbicide efficacy
Efficacy is reduced in a number of studies. The basis for the reduction isnot entirely known. However, if more pesticides are needed to kill weeds, thenmore trace chemicals are likely in theenvironment.
Climate change, plants and public Climate change, plants and public healthhealth