Level of Knowledge
Jan 05, 2016
Level of Knowledge
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Year
Perc
en
t M
ost
Imp
ort
an
t N
ew
s S
ou
rce
TV
Newspapers
Magazines
Radio
Internet
Most Important News Source, 1959 – 2005
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IDEOLOGICAL SELF-IDENTIFICATION1973-1998
Year
1998
1994
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1980
1977
1975
1973
Perc
ent Id
entif
ying A
s:
50
40
30
20
10
0
Self-Identification
Moderate
Conservative/
Very Conservative
Liberal/
Very Liberal
Slight Liberal
Slight Conservative
Sources of Questionnaire Errors
Effect of “issue publics” on politicsReturn
CBS News Poll. July 29-Aug. 2, 2005. N=1,222 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).
"What is your personal feeling about abortion? (1) It should be permitted in all cases. (2) It should be permitted, but subject to greater restrictions than it is now. (3) It should be permitted only in cases such as rape, incest and to save the woman's life. OR, (4) It should only be permitted to save the woman's life."
AllCases
GreaterRestrictions
Rape,Incest,
Woman'sLife
OnlyWoman's
LifeNever(vol.) Unsure
% % % % % %
7/29 - 8/2/05
28 15 33 15 5 4
Why Sampling Matters: The Ill-Fated Story ofThe Literary Digest
• 1920—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner
• 1924—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner
• 1928—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner
• 1932—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner
1936--Sent out 10 million postcards (U.S. population = 125 million).
Selected names from:
1) Telephone books
2) Club rosters
3) Automobile registration lists
4) Mail order customers
Recipients mailed in postcards.
Postcards predict—Alf Landon: 57%, Franklin Roosevelt: 43%
Election Results—Alf Landon: 38%, Franklin Roosevelt: 62%
Literary Digest GOES OUT OF BUSINESS
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The Amazing Shrinking Soundbite!Return
Average Uninterrupted Speech Time on Network Evening Newscasts—Presidential Candidates:
• 1968—43 seconds
• 1988—9.8 seconds
• 1992—8.4 seconds
• 1996—7.2 seconds.
Eschew Obfuscation! (Be Clear!)
• A 1992 poll conducted by the Roper polling organization found that 22 percent of the public thought the 1939-1945 Holocaust of Jews in Europe never happened.
• The question: “Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?”
• Subsequent poll (with clearer wording) found that
between 2 and 9 percent of Americans thought the Holocaust had not happened.
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Giving the “right” answer
On sensitive issues, people may give “acceptable” rather than honest responses. Their answers may depend on things like the gender or race of the interviewer.
Question: Abortion is “a private matter that should be left to the woman to decide without government intervention.”
Percentage who agreedWhen interviewed by a
manWhen interviewed by a
woman
Men 70% 77%
Women 64% 84%Source: Eagleton Institute Survey
Giving the “right” answer 2
On sensitive issues, people may give “acceptable” rather than honest responses. Their answers may depend on things like the gender or race of the interviewer.
Question: The problems faced by blacks “were brought on by blacks themselves.”
Percentage who agreedWhen interviewed by
whitesWhen interviewed by
blacks
Whites 62% 46%Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll
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Question order/Answer order mattersThe way questions are phrased, the possible answers that are offered and
the order in which comparisons are made can have profound effects on people’s answers.
Question: “Would you say that traffic contributes more or less
to air pollution than industry?”– Traffic contributes more: 45%
– Industry contributes more: 32%
Question: “Would you say that industry contributes more or less
to air pollution than traffic?”– Traffic contributes more: 24%
– Industry contributes more: 57%
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Our UT-Tyler Scientific Poll
• We want to find out how students feel about turning Tyler into a “wet” city—allowing the off-premise sale of alcohol.
1. Identify population– Who do we ask?– How/Where do we get the information?
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2. Random selection of the sample
• How do we randomly sample?
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3. Construct the questionnaire
• What should our question say?
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4. Administer questionnaire
• How will we conduct our poll?
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5. Interpret Results
• Be wary of close results/MoE issues
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MAJOR Source of Interpretation Error
1. Margin of Error (MoE): a statistical tool used to balance against “error” in sampling
– MoE can often wash out “results”– “Statistical dead heat”
Nightly news: “A recent poll taken about the Republican Party nomination for the 2016 presidential election gives
Senator Marco Rubio a slim lead over Jeb Bush, Governor Chris Christie, and Rick Santorum.”
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Notice
This race is a “statistical dead heat”
2nd MAJOR Source of Interpretation Error
1. Margin of Error (MoE): a statistical tool used to balance against “error” in sampling
– MoE can often wash out “results”– “Statistical dead heat”
2. 95% Confidence: Statistical theory--one in every 20 surveys reports incorrect results.
Polls and the need to create news BUSH KERRY Margin
Survey End Date
% % Bush Kerry
GWU Battleground
11/1 50 46 4
TIPP 11/1 47 44 3 FOX/Opinion Dynamics
10/31 46 48 2
CNN/USA Today/Gallup
10/31 49 47 2
TIPP 10/31 45 44 1 GWU Battleground
10/31 49 45 4
TIPP 10/30 47 42 5 FOX/Opinion Dynamics
10/29 47 45 2
Newsweek 10/29 51 45 6 TIPP 10/29 45 44 1 FOX/Opinion Dynamics
10/28 50 45 5
GWU Battleground
10/28 50 45 5
Which of these polls is most likely to “make news”?
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Nightly news: “A recent poll taken about the Republican Party nomination for the 2016 presidential election gives
Senator Marco Rubio a slim lead over Jeb Bush, Governor Chris Christie, and Rick Santorum.”
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Notice
(This really happens, by the way.)
A “politico” and a “pundit”
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The Washington Redskins and Presidential Politics
• In 15 of the previous 17 presidential elections, if the Washington Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party has lost the White House. When they have won, the incumbent has stayed in power.
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A “bellwether” constituency
• Election results in Vigo County, IN have been within 0.9% points for all Democratic and Republican presidential candidates since 1960.
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