Cause-of-Death Mortality: What Can Be Learned From Population Dynamics? Héloïse Labit Hardy 1 PhD Student, University of Lausanne, Switzerland joint work with S. Arnold (-Gaille) 1 , A. Boumezoued 2 , N. El Karoui 2 available at https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01157900 IAA Conference, Oslo, Norway June 10, 2015 1 Department of Actuarial Science, Faculty of Business and Economics - Extranef, University of Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland [email protected], [email protected]2 Probability and Random Models Laboratory, Pierre and Marie Curie University, 4 place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France [email protected], [email protected]Héloïse Labit Hardy Cause-of-Death Mortality: What Can Be Learned From Population Dynamics? 1/26
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Cause-of-Death Mortality: What Can BeLearned From Population Dynamics?
Héloïse Labit Hardy 1
PhD Student, University of Lausanne, Switzerland
joint work with S. Arnold (-Gaille)1, A. Boumezoued2, N. El Karoui2
available at https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01157900
IAA Conference, Oslo, NorwayJune 10, 2015
1Department of Actuarial Science, Faculty ofBusiness and Economics - Extranef, University ofLausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
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Conclusion
ä With a population dynamics model, we study impacts ofcause-of-death reductions on the population age structure :
. Model deaths and births, with rates invariant over time
. Under independence assumption between causes of death
⇒ Study the whole population dynamics give additionalinformations :
. With the same life expectancy at birth, cause reductionscan have different impacts on the age dependency ratio
ä Following :. Study dependence between causes of death. Take into account mortality improvement over the time. Study cause-of-death mortality by age, gender and
socio-economic variable
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Bibliographie
[1] Alai, D.H., Arnold(-Gaille), S., Sherris, M. (2015) Modelling Cause-of-DeathMortality and the Impact of Cause-Elimination. Annals of Actuarial Science
[2] Arnold, S., Boumezoued, A., Labit Hardy, H., El Karoui., N. (2015)Cause-of-Death Mortality : What Can Be Learned From Population Dynamics ?Working paper, https ://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01157900
[3] Bensusan, H. (2010) Risques de taux et de longévité : Modélisationdynamique et applications aux produits dérivés et á l’assurance vie. PhDthesis, Ecole Polytechnique
[4] Chiang, C. L. (1968) Introduction to Stochastic Process in Biostatistics.John Wiley and Sons, New York
[5] Bensusan, H., A. Boumezoued, N. El Karoui, S. Loisel. Impact ofheterogeneity in human population dynamics. working paper
[6] Tran, V.C. (2006) Modéles particulaires stochastiques pour des problémesd’évolution adaptative et pour l’approximation de solutions statistiques. PhDthesis, Université Paris X - Nanterre
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