Lessons learned in implementing a QRA capability - Egan Naidoo

Agenda

• Organisation

• Risk Management Development

• QRA Process

• QRA Outputs

• 4 Projects

• Common Implementation Challenges

• Success Stories

• Future Focus Areas

The Organisation

• African energy utility

• Challenges

– facing the country

– facing the organisation

• Project Management

history

Risk Management Development

• Where we were

• Where we are

• Where we are heading

QRA Process

Typical QRA Output – Distributions

Typical QRA Output – Tornado Graph

Project A

• Pump storage scheme

• Late stage of Execution

• Implementation Approach

• Receptiveness of QRA and results

• Implementation lessons

o Successes

o Challenges

Project B

• Rail Project

• Early stage of Execution

• Implementation Approach

• Receptiveness of QRA and results

• Implementation lessons

o Successes

o Challenges

Project C

• Gas Turbine Power Station

• Definition phase

• Implementation Approach

• Receptiveness of QRA and results

• Implementation lessons

o Successes

o Challenges

Project D

• Coal fired power station

• Early stage of Execution

• Implementation Approach

• Receptiveness of QRA and results

• Implementation lessons

o Successes

o Challenges

Common Implementation Challenges

• Understanding uncertainty, risk and statistics

• Planners reluctant to take ownership of the uncertainty

data

• Management acceptance that QRA is a different way of

analysing risk

• Educating project stakeholders on using percentiles for

decision-making (P80)

• Implementation capacity

• Continuity of QRA process – lack of project-based

resources

• How to get QRA onto a project earlier enough for it to be

beneficial

Success Stories • Collaboration with the project team pays dividends

• Treatment plans starting to be built into schedule

• “You have empowered me to challenge the imposed schedule

deadline”

• “I don’t like what your analysis is showing but it’s a realistic

picture that I have to accept”

• “I now know what is driving my schedule and I can

concentrate on lowering the uncertainty and risks in these

areas”

• “I can now manage my stakeholder expectations. These are

more realistic end dates.”

• “Risk Management was always just a compliance exercise.

Now I can use it for management decisions”

Future Focus Areas

• Correlation between activities

• Getting planners to understand and buy in to correlation

• Taking QRA to investment committee

• IWBS / Control Accounts

• Wider implementation

• QRA capacity increase

• Converting project scales to corporate scales for

reporting

And Finally …

• Built up QRA capability from scratch

• QRA is helping to raise the profile of project risk

management

• Building relationships of trust

• Don’t be afraid of implementing QRA – it has been an

exciting and rewarding journey so far

THANK YOU

Contact

Egan Naidoo

+27 (0)79 509 9523

+27 (0)11 516 7187

[email protected]

Any Questions?

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