Lessons from the 2015 SSG-Wi Reference Case Mary Johannis, SSG-WI Generation Subgroup Lead Tom Carr, WIEB Seams Steering Group of the Western Interconnection.

Lessons from the 2015 SSG-Wi Reference Case

Mary Johannis, SSG-WI Generation Subgroup Lead

Tom Carr, WIEB

Seams Steering Group of the Western Interconnection


February 12, 2007TEPPC Webinar--Lessons from 2015 SSG-Wi Reference Case 2

SSG-WI Transmission

Expansion Planning

10/2003 Plan: “Framework for Expansion of the WI Transmission System” Objectives:

Identify Tx needed to facilitate competitive markets Provide feedback to policy-makers re: Tx impacts of

state, provincial and Federal policies Identify for generation developers, Tx additions

Book-end Scenarios: Gas, Coal and Renewables 2005 Program: 2008 Base Case & 2015

Reference Case identify Tx additions needed for case with “most likely future resources”

Load Forecasting Sub-Group

SSG-WI Modeling Roles

Generation Sub-Group

Transmission Sub-Group

Modeling Team

- Topology- Transmission path ratings & nomograms- Transmission solutions to relieve congestion- Validate modeling- Presentation & reporting

- Topology- Load forecast (2008)- Load growth (2015)- Load mapping to the bus level

- Planning margin- Resources & resource attributes - Fuel prices- Validate modeling- Presentation & reporting

Determine:- Congestion and congestion costs- Economic implications for resource and transmission expansion- Validate modeling- Presentation & reporting

SSG-WI Organization

SSG-WI Generation Subgroup Process Diagram2008 BASE CASE

February 23, 2005

Existing PowerResources:

Available Capacity 1/

& Other GenerationAttributes

1/ Available capacity is net capacity after station/direct service and efficiency derates subtracted.2/ Dynamic Demand Response resources will not be explicitly represented because these should not be called upon in adeterministic study using temperature neutral loads.

Is Power Plant aFederal or NW Hydro

Facility ?

Update Hydro Data usingGENESYS Model for NWand WAPA/USBR Data

using Historical Generationto Shape

Is Power Plant a WindTurbine, or Farm?

YES

Rely on NREL to update tomodern wind profile if

appropriate for wind facilityin question

YES

NO

Coordinatewith LoadSubgroup

on NWloads

correlatedto Hydro

Is Power Plant aThermal or other

Renewable Facility?

YES

NO

NO

WIEB effort to compare theWECC, SSG-WI, CEC, NWPP

databases to identify thecommon existing generators

and any discrepancies

Is this a DSMresource?

NO

Collaborate with State/Regional representativesto verify common existinggenerators and clarify the

discrepancies

YES

Provide informationto Loads Subgroup

to treat DSM asload reduction 2/

Update SSG-WIDatabase ifGenerationSubgroup

agrees; TSGdecides if there

are areas ofdisagreement

Do not use thisResource in SSG-WI

Database

Decisions on NewPower Facilities thatare Projected to be

On-Line by 2008

Is New Power Plantunder construction andexpected to be on-line

in 2008?

YES

NO

IsNew Power Plant

needed for WI area(s)to be resource

adequate or meetRPS?

NO

YES

SSG-WI Generation Subgroup Process Diagram2008 BASE CASE

Update SSG-WIDatabase ifGenerationSubgroup

agrees; TSGdecides if there

are areas ofdisagreement

3/ Subregional (Transmission) Planning Groups, e.g. NTAC, RMATS, SWAT, STEP and CCPG

WIEB effort to compare theWECC, SSG-WI, CEC, NWPP

databases to identify thecommon new generators and

any discrepancies

Collaborate with State/Regional representativesto verify common existinggenerators and clarify the

discrepancies

Get input from SPG 3/

liaison to GenerationSubgroup to verify that newgenerators are consistentwith SPG future resource

projections

Is New Power Plant awind or other short lead-timeFacility that is expected to

be on-line in 2008?

RenewableIndustry,

NREL, State &SPG liaisons

come toconsensus ontype of facilityand location

YES

NO

DoesGeneration

Subgroup agreethat the addition of

this plant isreasonable?

YES

NO

Is New Resource aDSM Resource?

NO

Is DSM Resourceconsistent with IRPs,NWPCC Plan or otherCredible Information?

YESYES

NO


Database


Database

Provide informationto Loads Subgroup

to treat DSM asload reduction 2/



Incremental Generation 2008 Base:

WGA Comparison of Data Bases; Starting Point = Western Gas Study

Generation from CEC

Dependable MWs shown

1253

1012340

7525

571

216

193

0

461

631

124651

131



2015 SSG-WI Reference Case

Goal to construct case depicting the “most likely mix of future resources”

Information collected from utilities, state energy offices and PUCs, NREL, WECC and subregional planning groups

Tom Carr, WIEB, was liaison with state energy offices in collecting/verifying information



Other Plans, e.g.

IPP Projects

States’ Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

or other State Requirements,

e.g. resource adequacy

2015 Reference Case Principles

“Minimal Interregional Transfer” Case• Incremental 2008-2015 resources from IRPs, to satisfy RPS and be consistent with other formal plans

• Incremental resources primarily to meet load growth in sub-areas, i.e. CA, NTAC, RMATS, SWAT & CCPG

• If existing through 2008 resources are for export to other sub-areas, then assume same level of export for 2015

Integrated Resource Plans (IRP)

Nevada

SSG-WI Topology2005 Transmission Planning

Contour:

28Feb05

MONT

WYO

IDAHO

UTAH

COLO

Wyo

Bhills

MilesCity DC

MPC -Wyo

YellowtailSouth

Tot - 4B

Mont - NW

Idaho -Montana

JB West

IPC -Wyo

Tot - 4A

Monmt -Ngtn

Path C

FlamingGorge

Tot - 5BonanzaWest

IPP - Mona

Gonder - Pavant

BorahWest

Tot - 2A

Tot - 2BTot - 2C

Tot - 2

Tot - 3

Tot - 2A

TOT1AWF - S

WA

ORE

BCHydro

Alberta

Midpoint -Summer Lake

PDCI

West of Hatwai

Alberta -BC

West ofCascades

PG & E

SSG-WI added areas (11 Bubbles)WECC areas (22 Bubbles)

LRS

Col W

Col E

UT S

Bonz

UTN

SW Wyo

JB

BHB

Ywtl

KGB

Oxbow/Hells

Canyon

IPP

WAPAL.C.

LADWP

SOCALIF

ImperialCA

Arizona

Mexico -C

MdptBoise

& Snake

SanDiego

NewMexico

Sierra

Montana

NWEast

NWWest

CAlifornia

Arizona

Canada

Mexico

BC-NW(West)

BC-NW(East)

BayArea

Challenge of Conforming Transmission Topology to Resource

Planning Topology

NTAC = Alberta + BC Hydro + PNW ((NW East + NW West) + Idaho (Oxbow/Hells Canyon + Midpoint Boise & Snake + KGB + JB) ) + Montana

Nevada = Sierra + Nevada Utah = Utah North + Utah South + Bonz Wyoming = Ywtl + BHB + Wyo + SW Wyo + Bhills + LRS Colorado = Col W + Col E New Mexico = New Mexico Arizona = Arizona + WAPA L.C. California = PG&E + Bay Area + So. Calif. + San Diego +

Imperial CA + LADWP + IPP + Mexico CFE



Alberta Incremental Generation 2008 - 2015

WECC Bus

Unit ID Name Type Region

Gross MCR (MW)

AUX Load (MW)

Year of Retirement

Year of ISD

NET 2015 Increm MW

54130 '3 ' 'SUND#3GN' COAL N 430 27 Upgrades 50 54139 '1 ' 'WABA#1GN' COAL N 63.7 2004 54140 '2 ' 'WABA#2GN' COAL N 63.7 2004 54146 '4 ' 'WABA#4GN' COAL N 301 22 2010 54592 '1 ' HR MILN9 COAL N 143 2014 -143 54342 '4 ' 'SUND#4GN' COAL N 430 27 Upgrades 50 54422 '1 ' 'KEEP#1GN' COAL N 438 27 Upgrades 30 54424 '2 ' 'KEEP#2GN' COAL N 438 27 Upgrades 30 54490 '3 ' 'GENES 39' COAL N 506 36 Upgrades 20 54493 '1 ' 'CBAR 1 9' G N 157.3 2006 -157.3 54494 '2 ' 'CBAR 2 9' G N 157.3 2006 -157.3 54495 '3 ' 'CBAR 3 9' G N 157.3 2006 -157.3 54496 '4 ' 'CBAR 4 9' G N 157.3 2006 -157.3 54497 '8 ' 'ROSS 8 ' G N 66.7 2011 54498 '9 ' 'ROSS 9 ' G N 70.7 2011 54499 '0 ' 'ROSS 109' G N 70.7 2011 54057 'G1' 'HANG G-L' GTC N 86 5/15/2008 86 55495 '3 ' 'BAT #3 ' COAL C 159 11 2013 -148 55496 '4 ' 'BAT #4 ' COAL C 159 11 2013 -148 54057 'G1' 'NEXENG1 ' GTC N 84 60 5/15/2007 24 54057 'G2' 'NEXENG2 ' GTC N 84 60 5/15/2007 24 54514 'G1' 'MEGENER2' GTC N 85 60 5/15/2008 25 54514 'G3' 'NEX_13-3' GTC N 11.5 11.5 5/15/2007 0 54514 'G4' 'NEX_13-3' GTC N 11.5 11.5 5/15/2007 0 56233 'G7' 'SYNC_UE5' GTC N 75 60 5/15/2005 15 57233 'G8' 'SYNC_UE4' GTC N 27 20 5/15/2005 7 54514 '2 ' 'MACKAYG2' GTC N 85 60 5/15/2008 25 54514 '3 ' 'MACKAYG3' GTC N 85 60 5/15/2008 25 59207 '1 ' 'AUR_GTG2' GTC N 86 60 5/15/2006 26 54159 '3 ' 'KEEUN3 ' COAL N 506 36 5/15/2011 470 54161 '4 ' 'KEEUN4 ' COAL N 506 36 5/15/2013 470 54160 '4 ' 'GENUN4 ' COAL N 506 36 5/15/2015 470 54514 'E1' 'CCGT1 ' CCG+H N 172 120 5/15/2007 52 54136 'E2' 'CCGT2 ' CCG+H N 172 120 5/15/2009 52 54136 'E3' 'CCGT3 ' CCG+H N 172 120 5/15/2010 52 54159 'E4' 'CCGT4 ' CCG+H N 172 120 5/15/2010 52 54159 'E5' 'CCGT5 ' CCG+H N 172 120 5/15/2010 52 55080 'E6' 'CCGT6 ' CCG+H N 172 120 5/15/2012 52

Alberta Incremental Generation 2008 - 2015

55163 'E7' 'CCGT7 ' CCG+H N 172 120 5/15/2012 52 55163 'E8' 'CCGT8 ' CCG+H N 172 120 5/15/2014 52 54165 'W1' 'SWWND1 ' WIND S 170 2040 5/16/2006 34 54167 'W2' 'SWWND2 ' WIND S 250 2040 5/16/2008 50 54165 'W5' 'SWWND5 ' WIND S 250 2040 5/17/2008 50 54167 'W6' 'SWWND6 ' WIND S 250 5/18/2009 50 54165 'W7' 'SWWND7 ' WIND S 250 5/18/2006 50 54430 'W3' 'SWWND3 ' WIND S 250 2040 5/17/2007 50 54167 'W4' 'SWWND4 ' WIND S 250 2040 5/17/2013 50 54128 'G1' 'G-L_CG1 ' GTC N 80 60 5/15/2007 20 54505 'G3' 'G-L_CG1 ' GTC N 85 60 5/15/2012 25 54128 'S2' 'G-L_CG1 ' GTC N 15 15 5/15/2007 0 54505 'G3' 'G-L_CG8 ' GTC N 85 50 5/15/2012 35 54128 'G1' 'G-L_CG2 ' GTC N 85 50 5/15/2007 35 54128 'G2' 'G-L_CG2 ' GTC N 85 50 5/15/2008 35 54128 'G3' 'G-L_CG3 ' GTC N 85 50 5/15/2008 35 54128 'G4' 'G-L_CG3 ' GTC N 85 50 5/15/2010 35 54505 'G5' 'G-L_CG4 ' GTC N 85 40 5/15/2011 45 54128 'G1' 'G-L_CG5 ' GTC N 85 40 5/15/2010 45 54137 'G2' 'G-L_CG5 ' GTC N 85 40 5/15/2012 45 54137 'G3' 'G-L_CG6 ' GTC N 85 40 5/15/2014 45 54128 'G1' 'G-L_CG7 ' GTC N 85 32 5/15/2009 53 54128 'G2' 'G-L_CG7 ' GTC N 85 7 5/15/2009 78 54430 '1 ' BRKUN4 ' COAL S 506 36 7/15/2010 470

NET Incremental Generation Added-Aux Load 10874 2020.8



Alberta: Principles Compliance Check

1/ AESO's peak load forecast is over 13,000 MW in 2015 and about 10,000 MW in 2008. There appears tobe a mismatch in loads and resources; oil sands resources included, but not the associated loads.

Therefore, 2007 MW were subtracted from the resources. They are still shown on this worksheetbecause, in the future, the better solution is to add the load into the forecast.

2015 Load and Resource Balance 2008 Load and Resource Balance

LOADS LOADS peak MW 1/ 11,224 peak MW 8,570 annual energy (gwh) 77,291 annual energy (gwh) 59,916

RESOURCES--inst. cap + 20% wind RESOURCES--inst. cap + 20% wind MW 13,565 MW 11,544 Planning Margin (%) 21% Planning Margin (%) 35%

Plant Factor (%) 65% Plant Factor (%) 59%



Arizona Incremental Resources 2008-2015

Bus ID Bus

Name Bus KV Long Name

Fuel Type

Installed Capacity

(MW)

No. of

Units Commission

Date COMMENTS

16104 SPRINGR 345 Springerville 4 Coal 400 1 2014 copy data from existing Springerville # 3

14001 DRPP 500 Desert Rock Power Plant Coal 1500 2 2014 two 750MW units copy data from Four Corners unit #4

14001 FCNEW 500 Four Corners New Coal 1500 2 2014 two 750MW units copy data from Four Corners Unit #4

15021 PVNEW #1 500 Palo Verde New #1 CT 1500 30 2014

thirty 50MW units copy data from Sundance units

15021 PVNEW #2 500 Palo Verde New #2 CC 1200 2 2014

two 600MW units copy data from Arlinton Valley

Total Incremental Resources 6100

Arizona: Principles Compliance Check

RPS COMPLIANCE CHECK Based on Proposed Requirements 2015 Renewable Tabulation: ResType MW gwh WIND 2/ 1,113 2,925 SOLAR 3/ 546 2,393 Total Renewable gwh 5,318 5% RPS Satisfied? 5% 1/ SWAT believes the 2008 load forecast should be 18,400 MW 2/ Wind is assumed to be purchased from New Mexico (800 MW of 1500 MW) and other areas. 3/ 1% Solar and 1.25% Distributed Generation assumed to be represented as load reductions since these resources are behind the meter. 4/ Resources increased to show 20% of imported wind contributing to peak.


LOADS LOADS 1/ peak MW 22,877 peak MW 15,562 annual energy (gwh) 106,352 annual energy (gwh) 76,598 RESOURCES=inst cap;hydro not derated

RESOURCES=inst cap; hydro not derated

MW 4/ 35,358 MW 29,035 Planning Margin (%) 55% Planning Margin (%) 87%


British Columbia Incremental Resources

2008-2015Technology

Area Name

New Plant or

Plant being

Retired (N or R) Bus ID

Bus Name Long Name Type

Bucket

Fuel Type

Installed Capacity

(MW) Commissio

n Date

Retiremen

t Date COMMENTS

BC Hydro N 51039 ICG IPP VICFT CCGT Natural

Gas 293.0 2007/05/01 Result of the VI Call for Tender

BC Hydro N 50704 KLY500 KIT_SCGT SCGT 8 Natural

Gas 180.0 2010/01/01 Kitimat single cycle gas turbines BC Hydro N 50704 KLY500 GMS Upgrade HYD Water 246.0 2011/10/01 Turbine Upgrades

NTAC N 50704 KLY500 Generic GMS Upgrade HYD Water 246.0 2011/10/01 Turbine Upgrades - NTAC Filler

BC Hydro N 50704 KLY500 generic small hydro bundle hydro hydro 114 2011/10/01

representation of future Calls for planning

BC Hydro N 50704 ING500 generic wind bundle wind wind 163 2011/10/01


BC Hydro N 50703 NIC500 generic CCGT CCGT CCGT 127 2011/10/01 representation of future Calls for planning

BC Hydro N MCA Mica Mica Upgrade HYD Water 130.0 2012/10/01 Turbine Upgrades

NTAC N MCA Mica Generic Mica Upgrade HYD Water 130.0 2012/10/01 Turbine Upgrades - NTAC Filler

BC Hydro N 50704 KLY500 generic CCGT CCGT CCGT 64 2011/10/01 representation of future Calls for planning

BC Hydro N 50704 ING500 generic small hydro bundle hydro hydro 57 2013/10/01


BC Hydro N 50704 KLY500 generic wind bundle wind wind 82 2013/10/01


BC Hydro N 50703 NIC500 generic small hydro bundle hydro hydro 57 2011/10/01


BC Hydro N 50704 ING500 generic wind bundle wind wind 82 2014/10/01


BC Hydro N 50704 KLY500 generic CCGT CCGT CCGT 64 2014/10/01 representation of future Calls for planning

PSE N 50704 KLY500 generic small hydro bundle hydro hydro 200.0 2010/07/04 PSE IRP

BC Hydro R 50975 BGS G1 Burrard Retired Steam Natural

Gas -150.0 1961/10/01 2014/03/31

Burrard Conventional Steam Thermal Station taken out of service

British Columbia Incremental Resources

2008-2015BC BC Hydro R 50976 BGS G2 Burrard Retired Steam

Natural Gas -150.0 1961/10/01 2014/03/31


BC BC Hydro R 50977 BGS G3 Burrard Retired Steam Natural

Gas -150.0 1961/10/01 2014/03/31



Gas -150.0 1961/10/01 2014/03/31



Gas -152.0 1961/10/01 2014/03/31



Gas -152.0 1961/10/01 2014/03/31


BC BC Hydro N 50704 KLY500 generic small hydro bundle hydro hydro 133 2015/10/01


BC BC Hydro N 50703 NIC500 generic small hydro bundle hydro hydro 133 2015/10/01


BC BC Hydro N 50704 ING500 generic small hydro bundle hydro hydro 133 2015/10/01


50704 KLY500 generic wind bundle wind wind 190 2015/10/01

50703 NIC500 generic wind bundle wind wind 190 2015/10/01

50704 ING500 generic wind bundle wind wind 190 2015/10/01

BC BC Hydro N 50704 KLY500 generic CCGT CCGT CCGT 148 2015/10/01 BC BC Hydro N 50703 NIC500 generic CCGT CCGT CCGT 148 2015/10/01 BC BC Hydro N 50704 ING500 generic CCGT CCGT CCGT 148 2015/10/01

BC CPC/CBT N SEL SEL230 Waneta Expansion HYD hydro 435.0 2011/06/01

Waneta Expansion Connects to Selkirk Substation 230 kV

Tot Winter Dep MW Additions 1679.5

1/ Assumption that winter dependable = 25% of installed small hydro capacity + 7.5% of installed capacity for wind; hdyro additions with storage were not derated.

2/ Does not include 200 MW PSE Resource



British Columbia: Principles Compliance

Check

2015 Load and Resource

Balance 2008 Load and Resource Balance LOADS LOADS peak MW 12,457 peak MW 9,187 annual energy (gwh) 74,159 annual energy (gwh) 56,877

RESOURCES--winter dependable cap.1/

RESOURCES--winter dependable cap.1/

MW 2/ 13,674 MW 11,995 Planning Margin (%) 10% Planning Margin (%) 31% Plant Factor (%) 62% Plant Factor (%) 54%

RESOURCES--installed capacity RESOURCES--installed capacity

MW 2/ 17,915 MW 14,936

Planning Margin (%) 44% Planning Margin (%) 63%


NOTE: Generation has been added to GMS and Mica to match load growth. BC Hydro's load forecasts are lower than the ones here; however, philosophically the province intends to match capacity additons to load growth.

California Incremental Generation 2008 - 2015

Technology

Area Name

New Plant

or Plant being Retired (N or R) Bus ID Bus Name

Bus KV Long Name Type

Bucket

Fuel Type

Installed Capacity

(MW)

Commission Date

Retirement Date

SOCALIF N 24500 Antelope 500 SP RPS Wind 1 - Tehachapi WT 28 Wind 1000 1/1/2015 SOCALIF N 24804 Devers 230 SP RPS Wind 1 - San Gorgonio WT 28 Wind 2500 1/1/2015 PG&E_VLY N 30460 Vaca Dixon 230 NP RPS Wind - Solano WT 28 Wind 300 1/1/2015 PG&E_BAY N 30529 Hi Wind tap 230 NP RPS Wind - Altamont WT 28 Wind 600 1/1/2015 SANDIEGO N 22902 Crestwood 69 SD RPS Wind 1 WT 20 Wind 163 SANDIEGO N 22602 OMWD 69 Olivenhain hydro-pump Hydpump 20 hydro 40 SOCALIF N 24076 LAGUBELL 230 SP RPS Biomass 1 SP ST 20 BIO 200 SOCALIF N 24760 Oxbow 230 SP RPS Biomass 1 LADWP ST 20 BIO 90 PG&E_VLY N 31464 Cotwdpge 115 NP RPS Bio 1 ST 20 BIO 90 PG&E_VLY N 30430 Fulton 230 NP RPS Geo 1 GE 21 GEO 110 PG&E_VLY N 31220 Egle Rk 115 NP RPS Geo 1 GE 21 GEO 100 PG&E_VLY N 31263 Lwrlakej 115 NP RPS Geo 1 GE 21 GEO 100 PG&E_VLY N 30397 CR2T3_18 230 NP RPS Geo 1 GE 21 GEO 100 PG&E_VLY N 34158 Panoche 115 ZP RPS Biomass 1 ST 20 BIO 100 PG&E_VLY N 30790 Panoche 230 ZP RPS Solar 1 SL 23 Sun 280 SC/SDG&E N 24219 Pisgah 230 SP RPS Solar 1/ SL 23 Sun 500 SANDIEGO R 22788 SouthBy3 20 South Bay 3 12/31/2008 SANDIEGO R 22792 SouthBy4 20 South Bay 4 12/31/2008 PG&E_BAY R 33270 Hntrs P4 18 Hunters Point 4 4/1/2007 SANDIEGO R 22784 SouthBy2 15 South Bay 2 12/31/2008 SANDIEGO R 22780 SouthBy1 15 South Bay 1 12/31/2008 PG&E_VLY R 36407 Morro 1 18 Morro Bay 1 3/1/2003 PG&E_VLY R 36408 Morro 2 18 Morro Bay 2 3/1/2003 PG&E_BAY N 33271 Hntrs P1 12 Hunters Point GT1 4/1/2007

PG&E_BAY N 30875 Mccall 230 Gen CCDF ZP 1 CCCT- 26 GAS 250 5/1/2009 PG&E_BAY N 30873 Helm 230 Gen CCDF ZP 2 CCCT- 26 GAS 250 5/1/2009 PG&E_BAY N 30873 Helm 230 Gen CCDF ZP 3 CCCT- 26 GAS 250 5/1/2011 PG&E_BAY N 30873 Helm 230 Gen CCDF ZP 1-2 DT DT 12 GAS 30 5/1/2009 PG&E_BAY N 30875 Mccall 230 Gen CCDF ZP 3 DT DT 12 GAS 15 5/1/2011 PG&E_VLY N 31000 Humboldt 115 GenGT NP 1 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2011 PG&E_VLY N 30624 Tesla E 230 GenGT NP 2 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2011

PG&E_VLY N 30560 Eastshore 230 Gen CCDF NP 1 CCCT- 26 GAS 265 5/1/2012

California Incremental Generation 2008 - 2015

PG&E_VLY N 37585 Tracy 230 Gen CCDF NP 2 CCCT- Frame G 26 GAS 265 5/1/2013 PG&E_VLY N 37585 Tracy 230 Gen CCDF NP 1-2 DT DT 12 GAS 26 5/1/2012 PG&E_VLY N 32786 OAK C115 115 GenGT NP 3 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2013 PG&E_VLY N 33540 Tesla 115 GenGT NP 4 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2015 SANDIEGO N 22768 South Bay 69 Gen CC SDGE 1 CCCT- Frame G 26 GAS 140 5/1/2011

SANDIEGO N 22772 South Bay 138 Gen CC SDGE 2 CCCT- Frame G 26 GAS 360 5/1/2011 PG&E_BAY N 33204 Potrero 115 GenGT_CSF 1 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2011 SOCALIF N 24151 VALLEY 500 Gen CC-H SP 1 CCCT- Frame H 26 GAS 387 5/1/2008

SOCALIF N 24151 VALLEY 500 Gen CC-H SP 2 CCCT- Frame H 26 GAS 387 5/1/2008 SOCALIF N 24151 VALLEY 500 Gen CC-H SP 1-2 DT DT 12 GAS 26 5/1/2008 SOCALIF N 24077 LBEACH 230 GenGT_SCE 1 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2011 SOCALIF N 24077 LBEACH 230 GenGT_SCE 2 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2012 SOCALIF N 24401 ANTELOPE 230 Gen CC SP 1 CCCT- Frame G 26 GAS 259 5/1/2013

SOCALIF N 24401 ANTELOPE 230 Gen CC SP 2 CCCT- Frame G 26 GAS 259 5/1/2013 SOCALIF N 24077 LBEACH 230 GenGT_SCE 3 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2014 Imperial N 21045 MIDWAY X 230 IID RPS Bio 1 ST 20 BIO 75 1/1/2015 21045 MIDWAY X 230 IID RPS Geo GE 21 GEO 425 1/1/2015 Imperial N 21026 El CENTRO 161 GenGT_IID 2 SCCT 25 GAS 50 4/1/2009 Imperial N 21045 MIDWAY X 230 IID RPS Solar 1 SL 23 Sun 175 1/1/2015 LADWP N 26025 HAYNES 230 GenGT LADWP 1 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2009 LADWP N 26025 HAYNES 230 GenGT LADWP 2 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2015 SMUD N 37524 Sutter 230 GenGT_SMUD 1 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2008 SMUD N 37549 Folsom 230 GenGT_SMUD 2 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2010 SMUD N 37549 Folsom 230 GenGT_SMUD 3 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2011 SMUD N 37549 Folsom 230 GenGT_SMUD 4 SCCT 25 GAS 150 5/1/2013 SMUD N 37016 Ranchoseco 230 Gen CCDF SMUD 1 CCCT- Frame G 26 GAS 250 5/1/2015 SMUD N 37016 Ranchoseco 230 Gen CCDF SMUD 2 CCCT- Frame G 26 GAS 250 5/1/2015 SMUD N 37016 Ranchoseco 230 Gen CCDF SMUD 1-2 DT 12 GAS 30 5/1/2015

Total Incremental Resources; wind=25% 9,374

Net Resources Added in Mexico = 1418 MW (1618 MW Gas; 86 MW Geothermal; Diesel Retirements= 286)

California: Principles Compliance Check

RPS COMPLIANCE CHECK 2015 Renewable Tabulation: ResType MW gwh WIND 6,820 23,897 BIO 1,266 9,427 GEO 2,657 19,783 SOLAR 1,168 2,659 2/ Total Renewable gwh 55,765 20% RPS Satisfied? 17% 1/ 1/ RPS Assumed to be satisfied for following reasons: - no hydro was counted toward RPS even though small hydro appears to be eligible; and - remaining % can be imported from NW, or other areas without RPS requirement, as long as they are under contract to IOU or ISO & deliverable.

2/ The California Mexico region is assumed to be resource adequate and California is assumed to satisfy its state requirement through imports. 3/ Irrigaton pumping loads are modeled as negative resources and the associated loads are subtracted from total load in the model because the shape of these loads is substantially different than normal loads shapes. Irrigation loads are estimated to total 6,926.4 gwh for SoCalif and 4,398.3 gwh for PG&E Valley SSG-WI Bubbles. These loads are included in the load resource balance because resources are needed to meet irrigation load obligations plus reserves. 4/ All DSM--both energy efficiency and demand response has already been subtracted from load.

California-Mexico (CFE) 2015 Load and Resource Balance 2008 Load and Resource Balance

LOADS LOADS 3/ & 4/ peak MW 71,133 peak MW 57,710 annual energy (gwh) 342,997 annual energy (gwh) 297,948

CA-only load (gwh) 323,195 RESOURCES--inst. Cap; wind=25%

RESOURCES--inst. Cap; wind=25%

MW 75,962 MW 65,170 Planning Margin (%) 7% Planning Margin (%) 13%


Colorado Incremental Generation 2008 - 2015

Technology

Bus ID Bus Name Bus KV Long Name Type

Bucket

Fuel Type

Installed

Capacity

(MW) Commission Date COMMENTS

70660 DANIELPK 345 Comanche III ST 19 Coal 750 2010

Interconnected via a new double circuit 345 kV line between Comanche and Daniels Park, CO.

Will include 2 auto transformers at Comanche and 3 auto tranformers at Daniels Park.

70654 COMANCHE 345 Advanced CC CCCT 10 NG 368 2009

The Comanche substantion will be expanded to accommodate the new transmission facilities.

70311 PAWNEE 230 Conventional Coal ST 19 Coal 500 2012

70622 CORNERPT 230 Conventional Coal ST 19 Coal 500 2013

73165 RAWHIDEE 13.8 Rawhide GT 5 Wellington CO SCCT Gas 80 2011

is the 230 kV bus to connect this new unit to thru a GSU tfmr

73995 TRISTAT1 22

Tri-State Units 1 & 2, Located in Garden City KS, at Holcomb Generating Station Coal 700 2013

Bus numbers are numbers used by TSGT, not numbers assigned by WECC

73999 TRISTAT2 22

Tri-State Units 1 & 2, Located in Garden City KS, at Holcomb Generating Station Coal 700 2014

Bus numbers are numbers used by TSGT, not numbers assigned by WECC

70311 PAWNEE 230 New Wind Wind 400 12/31/2007 70590 RMEC New Wind Wind 300 12/31/2007 70254 Lamar New Wind Wind 75 12/31/2006 73143 North Yuma New Wind Wind 60 12/31/2005 70292 Mosca New Solar Solar 8 1/1/2008

Total Incremental Generation; wind =10% 3689.5

Colorado: Principles Compliance Check

RPS COMPLIANCE CHECK 2015 Renewable Tabulation: ResType MW gwh WIND 1,033 2,715 SOLAR 1/ 1,040 2,734 Total Renewable gwh 5,449 10% RPS Satisfied? 8% 2/ 1/ Except for the 8 MW new solar facility, the rest of the solar requirement is assumed to be met behind the meter through installation of roof-top solar PV, for example. 2/ The rest of the renewables requirement is assumed to be imported from other states to meet the 10% RPS.

2015 Load and Resource Balance 2008 Load and Resource Balance LOADS LOADS peak MW 11,692 peak MW 9,791 annual energy (gwh) 68,350 annual energy (gwh) 58,137





Montana Incremental Generation 2008 – 2015 &

Principles CheckTechnology

State Area Name

New/ Retire

Bus ID Bus Name Long Name

Type

Bucket

Fuel Type

Installed Capacity

(MW)

Commissi

on Date

Retirement Date COMMENTS

MT MONTANA N 62046 BROADVU

Bull Mountain. Broadview, MT ST 19 Coal 500 2008 2050

Tentative Resource; initial plans actually call for 700 MW plant.

MT MONTANA N 62345 REEDPOINT

Wind Reedpoint, MT Wind Wind 400 2008 2050 Tentative Resource, New bus

MT MONTANA N 62071 GT FALLS

Southern Montana G&T, Gt Falls, MT ST 19 Coal 268 2009 2050 Tentative Resource

MT MONTANA N 62057 COLSTRIP

MT Lignite Colstrip, MT ST 19 Coal 500 2011 2050 Tentative Resource

Installed Resources except wind counts for 20% 1348

Resources to meet Avista & PSE's IRPs used in PNW 1000

RPS Check 2015 Renewable Tabulation

Incremental Resources for Montana 348

ResType MW gwh 2015 Load and Resource

Balance 2008 Load and Resource

Balance WIND 647 1,700 LOADS LOADS BIO 12 89 peak MW 1,698 peak MW 1,620

annual energy (gwh) 9,442


Ren gwh 1,790

15% RPS Satisfied? 19%

RESOURCES--inst. cap + 20% wind


MW 4,062 MW 3,714

Planning Margin (%) 139%


Plant Factor (%) 27%

Plant Factor (%) 28%

Nevada Incremental Generation 2008 - 2015

Technology Area Name

Bus ID

Bus Name Long Name Type Bucket

Fuel Type

Installed Capacity

(MW) Commission

Date COMMENTS

Nevada Generic-Gas SCCT SCCT 25 Gas 468 2011 Location to be determined; assume in Clark County

Nevada Generic-Gas CCT CCT 26 Gas 510 2013 Location to be determined; assume in Clark County

Nevada Generic-Gas SCCT SCCT 25 Gas 468 2015 Location to be determined; assume in Clark County

Sierra 64115 Tracy Tracy Facility Addtions CCT 10 or 26 Gas 514 2008 Located in Washoe County, NV

Sierra 64043 Falcon TS Power Plant 19 Coal 203 2008 Newmont Nevada Energy; Eureka County

Sierra New Robinson White Pine Project 19 Coal 500 2011 LS Power, White Pine County, tie into Gonder line, 345 kv

Total Incremental Capacity in MW 2663

Wind Projects

Nevada Ely Wind

Wind 50

2006

White Pine County; Company applying for financing through NV renewable trust.

Sierra Getchel Wind Farm

Wind 80

2006

Humbolt County; Osgood Mountains. Construction in Spring 2005. 6-9 months to complete.

Nevada Kenetixx/So. NV Wind 500 2008 Clark County; On Federal land.

Nevada

Table Mountain Wind Project

Wind

150

2008

Clark County; On BLM land. In EIS process. On line by 2007 if approved. 150-205 MW capacity. Interconnect to Valley Electric Association

Nevada Desert Queen Wind

Wind 80

2011

Clark County; Cielo website says on line in December 2004. PTC expiration an issue.

Nevada Shoshone Mountain Wind Wind

260 2011

Nye County; Cancelled but assume restarted. Valley Electric Association

Nevada Generic W1

Wind 200

2013 Clark County; Generic-Table Mountain 2

Nevada Generic W2

Wind 100

2013 White Pine County; Generic-Ely Wind 2

Sierra Generic W3

Wind 100

2014

Washoe County; Generic-Virginia Mountain; Nevada State Energy Office Report, 2005

Sierra Generic W4

Wind 111

2014

Washoe County; Generic-Granite Range; Nevada State Energy Office Report, 2005

Total Wind 1,631



Nevada Incremental Generation 2008 - 2015

Geothermal Projects

Sierra Hot Sulpher Springs Geo

25 2006

Elko County; Contract Terminated but assume restarted.

Sierra

Galena 1

Geo

20

2006

Washoe County; Subsidiary of Ormat. Adding 13 MW to Steamboat 1/1A for a total of 20 MW. Contract with Sierra Pacific Power for 20 years.

Sierra Galena 2 Geo 13 2006 Washoe County

Sierra Blue Mountain Geothermal Geo

30 2006

Humboldt County

Sierra Desert Peak 2 Geo 25 2007 Churchill County

Sierra Desert Peak 3 Geo 10 2008 Churchill County

Sierra Rye Patch

Geo 12

2011 Pershing County; Drilling complete. On line date unknown.

Sierra Steamboat IV Geo 62 2011 Washoe County

Sierra Steamboat Springs Geo

30 2011

Washoe County; Cancelled, assume restarted.

Sierra

Salt Wells Geothermal Project Geo

10 2006

Churchill County

Sierra Generic G1 Geo 51 2013 Washoe County; Generic G1-Galena 3

Sierra Generic G2

Geo 51 2013 Churchill County; Generic G2-Desert Peak

Sierra Generic G3

Geo 51 2014 Washoe County; Generic G3-Steamboat V

Sierra Generic G4

Geo 51 2014 Humboldt County; Generic G4-Blue Mountain Geothermal

Solar Projects

Nevada

Boulder City Solar

Solar 50

Clark County; Solargenix to apply for NV renewable energy trust for finanacing. Possible construction in March 2005. 12-18 months to complete. aka El Dorado Solar

Nevada Generic S1 Solar 100 Clark County; generic Nevada Generic S2 Solar 100 Clark County; generic Generic S2 110 Clark County; generic Total Solar 360



Nevada: Principles Compliance Check RPS COMPLIANCE CHECK 2015 Renewable Tabulation: ResType MW gwh WIND 1,684 3,688 BIO 23 171 GEO 1/ 471 3,509 SOLAR 360 820 Total Renewable gwh 8,188 20% RPS Satisfied? 20% 1/ Nevada's renewable analysis included the biomass plant with geothermal; here it is separated out.

Total MW Wind Geo Solar Renewables

Estimated MW for NV RPS Compliance 1,684 495 360 2,540

Existing MW in 2008 Database 53 53 0 106

Additions-Proposed Projects MW 1,120 237 50 1,407

Additions-Generic MW

511 205 310 1,026 Total Additions MW 1,631 442 360 2,433 Total MW 2015 1,684 495 360


LOADS LOADS peak MW 9,272 peak MW 6,735 annual energy (gwh) 40,982 annual energy (gwh) 31,215





New Mexico Incremental Generation 2008 - 2015

Technology New Plant or Plant being

Retired (N or R) Bus ID

Bus Name Long Name Type Bucket

Fuel Type

Installed Capacity

(MW)

Commission

Date

Retirement Date

COMMENTS

Purchase/Retire-Renovate 10486 AFTONG

Afton Generating Station ("Afton CT") SCCT 8 Gas 141 2006

PNM purchases Afton CT (existing plant) from IPP in 2006. Renovates to CCT in 2007. Located in Afton, NM.

New/Renovated 10486 AFTONG Afton CC CCT Gas 272 2006

PNM converts Afton CT to a combined cycle facility; adds incremental 131 MW

Purchase/Existing Merchant 13402

BLACKWTR Blackwater Station 50 2006

Contract for firm power from Blackwater Station; undetermined fuel source.

Retire-Renovated 10261

REEVE_G1 & Reeves Unit 3 SCCT 5 Gas 154 2008

Reeves Generating Station located in Albuquerque, NM

New/Renovated 10262

REEVE_G2

Reeves Repower Unit 3 CCT Gas 206 2008

PNM converts existing Reeves Generating Station Unit 3 to a combined cycle facility, adds incremental 52 MW

Transmission-- PNM may create new bus by tieing Reeves_1 and Reeves_2 together

Retire 10415 LVGT Las Vegas SCCT 5 Gas 18 1973 2008

New 12091 YORKCANY

New Mexico Biomass Plant 20 Wood 32 2009

Location TBD; assume Colfax County, Northeast NM Biomass

New 12067 VERANDAT LM6000

SCCT; peaker 25 Gas 40 2010

Peaker plant, LM6000 areoderivative; Location at undeveloped site in Sandoval County, NM

New 79064 SHIPROCK Generic Baseload 19? Coal 200 2011

PNM part ownership of new clean technology plant; Location to be determined, assume Four Corners.

New 12067 VERANDAT

Generic LM6000 Aeroderivative

SCCT; peaker 25? Gas 40 2012

Location TBD; assume Albuquerque

New 12007 BELEN_PG

Generic Frame 7FA CT peaker 10 Gas 145 2013

Location TBD; assume Albuquerque

New 14001 FC REN FCN Renewable Wind 1500 NM Wind deliverd at Four Corners

Total Incremental Generation; wind=20% 1,598

New Mexico: Principles Compliance Check

RPS COMPLIANCE CHECK 2015 Renewable Tabulation: ResType MW gwh WIND 1/ 1,740 2,470 HYDRO 14 48 BIO 32 238 SOLAR Total Renewable gwh 2,757 10% RPS Satisfied? 10%


LOADS LOADS peak MW 4,730 peak MW 3,290 annual energy (gwh) 27,246 annual energy (gwh) 19,913




Plant Factor (%) 54% Plant Factor (%) 53% 1/ It is assumed that on the order of 800 MW is exported to Arizona; thus the equivalent of 800 MW of wind energy has been subtracted from the RPS & LoadResource calculations.

Pacific Northwest Incremental

Generation 2008 - 2015Technology

State Area Name Bus ID Bus Name Long Name Type

Bucket

Fuel Type

Installed Capacity

(MW) Commission Date COMMENTS

OR NW - West 45262 Klamath Fl Generic CCCT, Southern Oregon CCCT 10 NG 525 6/1/2012

PAC 2004 IRP Preferred Portfolio

OR NW - West 45197 Meridian Load Control DSM, PAC West DSM None 44 6/1/2008


OR NW - West Load Control DSM, PAC West DSM None 45 6/1/2013


WA NW-West 40086 Bell Generic CCCT CCCT 10 NG 156 6/1/2013 Avista 2003 IRP 2013 addition WA NW-West 40086 Bell Generic SCCT SCCT 25 NG 42 6/1/2013 Avista 2003 IRP 2013 addition ID Idaho 60060 Borah Generic SCCT SCCT 25 NG 62 6/1/2013 IPC 2004 Draft IRP

ID Idaho 60045 Boise Bh DSM DR 27 None 36 6/1/2013 IPC 2004 Draft IRP 3/

ID Idaho 60060 Borah Wind WT 28 Wind 150 6/1/2013 IPC 2004 Draft IRP 3/

ID Idaho 60060 Borah Gen Coal ST 19 Coal 500 6/1/2013 IPC 2004 Draft IRP

ID Idaho 60045 Boise Bh Cogeneration CHP NG 30 6/1/2013 IPC 2004 Draft IRP

WA NW-West 40323 Custer Generic CCCT CCCT 10 NG 400 6/1/2010 PSE 2005 Draft IRP

PNW NW-East 40111 Big Eddy SBC Wind 2008 WT 28 Wind 120 12/31/2008 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East 40989 Slatt SBC Wind 2009 WT 28 Wind 130 12/31/2009 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw

PNW NW-East 40723 McNary 500 SBC Wind 2010 WT 28 Wind 150 12/31/2010 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw

PNW NW-East 41113 Vantage SBC Wind 2011 WT 28 Wind 160 12/31/2011 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East 40665 Lit Goose SBC Wind 2012 WT 28 Wind 180 12/31/2012 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West 41073 Tillamook PNW West Wind 2011 WT 28 Wind 10 12/31/2011 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West PNW West Wind 2012 WT 28 Wind 0 12/31/2012 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West 40407 Fairview PNW West Wind 2013 WT 28 Wind 120 12/31/2013 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West PNW West Wind 2014 WT 28 Wind 20 12/31/2014 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East PNW East Wind 2011 WT 28 Wind 40 12/31/2011 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East PNW East Wind 2012 WT 28 Wind 10 12/31/2012 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East PNW East Wind 2013 WT 28 Wind 690 12/31/2013 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East PNW East Wind 2014 WT 28 Wind 110 12/31/2014 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho 60060 Borah Idaho Wind 2011 WT 28 Wind 20 12/31/2011 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho Idaho Wind 2012 WT 28 Wind 10 12/31/2012 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho Idaho Wind 2013 WT 28 Wind 350 12/31/2013 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho 5/ Idaho Wind 2014 WT 28 Wind 60 12/31/2014 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West 40689 Maple vl Demand Response 2007 DR 27 None 48 12/31/2007 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West 40825 Pearl Demand Response 2008 DR 27 None 48 12/31/2008 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West 40086 Bell Demand Response 2009 DR 27 None 48 12/31/2009 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West 60045 Boise Bh Demand Response 2010 DR 27 None 48 12/31/2010 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw

Pacific Northwest Incremental

Generation 2008 - 2015PNW NW-West Demand Response 2011 DR 27 None 48 12/31/2011 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West Demand Response 2012 DR 27 None 48 12/31/2012 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West Demand Response 2013 DR 27 None 48 12/31/2013 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-West Demand Response 2014 DR 27 None 48 12/31/2014 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East Demand Response 2007 DR 27 None 18 12/31/2007 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East Demand Response 2008 DR 27 None 18 12/31/2008 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East Demand Response 2009 DR 27 None 18 12/31/2009 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East Demand Response 2010 DR 27 None 18 12/31/2010 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East Demand Response 2011 DR 27 None 18 12/31/2011 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East Demand Response 2012 DR 27 None 18 12/31/2012 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East Demand Response 2013 DR 27 None 18 12/31/2013 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW NW-East Demand Response 2014 DR 27 None 18 12/31/2014 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho Demand Response 2007 DR 27 None 9 12/31/2007 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho Demand Response 2008 DR 27 None 9 12/31/2008 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho Demand Response 2009 DR 27 None 9 12/31/2009 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho Demand Response 2010 DR 27 None 9 12/31/2010 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho Demand Response 2011 DR 27 None 9 12/31/2011 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho Demand Response 2012 DR 27 None 9 12/31/2012 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw PNW Idaho Demand Response 2013 DR 27 None 9 12/31/2013 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw

PNW Idaho Demand Response 2014 DR 27 None 9 12/31/2014 Fifth Power Plan $2005 $/kw Installed MW Except wind reduced to 20% and 3381 excluding dispatchable DSM, which are high-cost, contingency resources not used in normal planning NOTES:

1. PGE's Integrated Resource Plan is implicitly reflected here through the wind resource additions and Port Westward CCGT 2. The resources include 1000 MW of coal from Montana identified in Avista's and PSE's IRPs and a 200 MW hydro resource in British Columbia identified in PSE's IRP 3. These IPC resources are consistent with resources planned for Idaho in NWPCC's Fifth Power Plan

4. Includes derate of hydro resources consistent with WECC's May 2005 Power Supply Assessment 5. The sum of the numbers in plum in column H is the total Demand Response Resource from the Fifth Power Plan listed individually in column M; the numbers in plum indicate the amount of this resource located to the indicated busses on the grid



Pacific Northwest: Principles Compliance Check

2015 Load and Resource Balance 2008 Load and Resource Balance LOADS LOADS peak MW 35,550 peak MW 33,696 annual energy (gwh) 207,406 annual energy (gwh) 198,342

RESOURCES--inst. cap + 20% wind 4/ RESOURCES--inst. cap + 20% wind 4/



No RPS Requirements at the timeResource Adequacy Standard: one-hour peak Planning Capacity Margin is not good metric for hydro-dominated PNW; the average plant factor, which is around 50%, aligns with hydro under median water conditions

Utah Incremental Generation 2008 – 2015 &


Bus ID Bus Name Long Name Type Bucket

Fuel Type

Installed Capacity

(MW)

Commission Date COMMENTS

66456 SUMV2CT1 Generic CCCT (Lake Side II), Vineyard

CCCT 10 NG 544 6/1/2013 2004 IRP Preferred Portfolio Resources, Tentative

65396 CURRN2C1

Generic CCCT (Currant Creek II), Mona

CCCT 10 NG 525 6/1/2009 2004 IRP Preferred Portfolio Resources, Tentative

65397 CURRN2C2 65398 CURRN2S1

65501 EHUNTER4

Super Critical Coal Plant (Hunter IV), Castle Dale Other 19 Coal 575 6/1/2011 2004 IRP Preferred Portfolio Resources, Tentative

Load Control DSM, Wasatch Front DSM None 44 6/1/2008

2004 IRP Preferred Portfolio Resources, Tentative; air conditioning load cycling used every summer.

Load Control DSM, Wasatch Front DSM None 44 6/1/2013

2004 IRP Preferred Portfolio Resources, Tentative; air conditioning load cycling used every summer.

Super Critical Coal Plant (Jim Bridger 5) Other 19 Coal 500 6/1/2014

2004 IRP Preferred Portfolio Resources, Assumed 2/3 share of plant would be delivered to PacifiCorp, Tentative. For this reason, 2/3 of this plant is counted to meeting Utah's Load Resource Balance. Also, it should be noted Jim Bridger Units 1-4 are shown as NTAC resources since most of these resources are committed to the Northwest.

Total Incremental Resources with 2/3 of JB5 2065

2015 Load and Resource Balance 2008 Load and Resource Balance LOADS LOADS peak MW 9,425 peak MW 7,420



RESOURCES--inst. Cap; no wind

RESOURCES--inst. Cap; no wind

MW 9,684 MW 7,619






Wyoming Incremental Generation 2008 – 2015 &


Area Name

Bus ID Bus Name Long Name Type

Bucket

Fuel Type

Installed Capacity (MW)

Commission Date

Retirement Date COMMENTS

B HILL 74017 WYGEN2 WYGEN 2 Wyodak WY ST 19 COAL 100 Sep-08 2015

JB

Super Critical Coal Plant (Jim Bridger 5) Other 19 Coal 500 6/1/2014

2004 IRP Preferred Portfolio Resources, Assumed 2/3 share of plant would be delivered to PacifiCorp, Tentative. For this reason, 2/3 of this plant is counted to meeting Utah's Load Resource Balance. Also, it should be noted Jim Bridger Units 1-4 are shown as NTAC resources since most of these resources are committed to the Northwest.

Total MW with 1/3 JB5 contributing to WY Load 267

2015 Load and Resource

Balance 2008 Load and Resource Balance LOADS LOADS peak MW 3,009 peak MW 2,792





MW 4,158 MW 3,891






Observations from the trenches

Need to get the existing generation database right.

Despite the IRP/RPS guidelines, we added too much generation.

Need close review of RPS compliance.



Database Comparison

Compared data on existing generation from WECC, CEC and SSG-WI 2003, and Genesys databases.

Found discrepancies among the databases across states & provinces.

Need for close review of generation by Data WG.





Problem of Adding Incremental Generation

IRP/RPS guidelines provided framework to plan for the future generation additions.

Aggregate planning margin of 29% suggests we added too much generation. Market would not support/finance excessive

capacity Difficult to impose fixed planning margin for

each region because of import/export patterns.

Maybe we need an aggregate cap?









Identifying RPS Compliance

Among RPS states, requirements vary Capacity v. energy Specific resource requirements e.g. solar Provisions for energy efficiency

Helpful to rely on expertise in utility or state



Lessons Learned Obtaining information from utility IRPs, state energy offices,

sub-regional planning groups provides a cross-check on load and resource data

Both transmission and resource planners are needed to identify resources, approximate location of resources on grid and identify transmission interconnection needs

In most, cases there are a number of options for meeting state/regional/provincial policy requirements:

Demand-side Management Build in-state Import

The aggregation of resources from utility IRPs or even state/sub-regional plans will likely result in the addition of too many resources since the sum of individual plans is almost always suboptimal to a regional plan. However, is a regionally integrated resource and transmission plan feasible, given restructuring of electrical utility industry and SOC?

Lessons from the 2015 SSG-Wi Reference Case Mary Johannis, SSG-WI Generation Subgroup Lead Tom Carr, WIEB Seams Steering Group of the Western Interconnection.

Documents

western interconnection

ssgwi reference case7

ssgwi reference case8

ssgwi reference case

mexico cfe slide

teppc webinar

nevada incremental generation

montana incremental