8 recommendations to improve the public conversation David Wood @dw2 Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com Principal, Delta Wisdom deltawisdom.com Lessons from 10 years of public meetups addressing existential risk Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2016
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Lessons from 10 years of public meetups addressing existential risk
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8 recommendations to improve the public conversation
David Wood @dw2
Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com
Principal, Delta Wisdom deltawisdom.com
Lessons from 10 years of public meetups addressing existential risk
Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2016
@dw2 Page 2
Is it wise to discuss existential risks with “the public”?
• No!
• It’s bound to alarm people
• They will over-react
• Populist politicians will inexpertly impose inappropriate constraints
• The discussion will result in more harm than good
• Yes!
• It’s risky, but doing nothing is also risky :-o
• A discussion will happen, whether or not x-risks professionals are involved
• We can learn to apply good skills from the fields of marketing and politics
@dw2 Page 3
Technology marketing lifecycle
Laggards, sceptics
Early adopters,
visionaries Technology enthusiasts
Early majority
Late majority
Geoffrey Moore: Crossing the Chasm; Everett Rogers: The Diffusion of Innovations
• An abundance of healthy food (via synthetic biotech++)
• An abundance of material goods (via nanotech++)
• An abundance of affordable health (via rejuvenation biotech++)
• An abundance of all-round intelligence (via cognotech++)
• An abundance of time for creativity (via automation++)
• Supported by cooperative robots, value-aligned AI, better collabtech
• Underpinned by wise use of accelerating technology – Enabled by directing and utilising positive feedback cycles
Technoprogressive transhumanist vision
@dw2 Page 20
• An abundance of human flourishing and freedom – Underpinned by wise use of accelerating technology – Enabled by directing and utilising positive feedback cycles
1. Sustainable (not transient) – Resources come from renewable sources
2. An “extropia”, not a “utopia” – A journey (a progression)
3. A possibility, not an inevitability – Many things could go badly wrong en route – But the basis of the positive journey can be secured well before 2040… – Via improved foresight and corresponding action
The post-scarcity vision Technoprogressive transhumanist vision
New dark age
ahead?
@dw2 Page 21
8 recommendations to improve the public conversation
Lessons from 10 years of public meetups addressing existential risk
1. Prepare to “cross the chasm”: real-world problems, ready solutions 2. Focus – pick the right battles; target selected key influences 3. Engage story-tellers – partner with the best of Hollywood, Netflix… 4. Evolve credible scenarios (tech + human) – partner with futurists 5. Skilfully transcend paradigms – beyond “simply telling the truth” 6. Paint a compelling vision – technoprogressive transhumanism 7. Agile development – incrementally deliver updates to scenarios 8. Embrace politics – little can be achieved without smart alliances